Matthew Trueblood

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images It's been a long stretch of tough outcomes for Shota Imanaga. He's a smart, adaptable and wonderfully human southpaw, but recently, he's running into too many barrels and craning his neck to watch too many balls sail over the outfield wall. He's allowed at least one home run in 10 straight starts, during which his ERA is 4.70 and he's surrendered a total of 16 long balls. The trouble stems, in no small part, from a persistent problem getting his release point up the way he did before his hamstring strain in May. As good as Imanaga has been since joining the Cubs in January 2024, therefore, he's not inspiring much confidence recently. His excellent control and his pitchability have hung in there, but he just can't get out of the strike zone when he needs to right now, and thus, he's having a hard time mitigating opponents' power. The Brewers aren't one of the league's highest-powered offenses, in terms of hitting home runs, but they pose a real threat to Imanaga and the Cubs heading into Game 2. That's not to say that there's any doubt about the legitimacy or wisdom of starting Imanaga. I want to take a moment to dispel that notion, because it seems unfortunately prevalent online and in Chicago's sports conversation today. It was not a mistake to give Matthew Boyd the ball in Game 1 of the NLDS, and it's not a mistake to give the ball to Imanaga Monday night. The team needs innings from both of those guys to get through this series, and although Boyd proved an especially bad matchup with the Brewers throughout this season, it made a world of sense to bring him back on three days' rest after throwing just 58 pitches in the Wild Card Series against San Diego. The plan was to use him in an abbreviated start; the Brewers just landed their knockout punch before the Cubs could get into their bob-and-weave. Delaying starts by Boyd and/or Imanaga until later in the series wouldn't have done anything of value for the Cubs. On the contrary, it made much more sense to slate them for these two games, which each have off days on either side of them. That gives Craig Counsell the luxury of being aggressive with his bullpen behind each of them. He had to be more expansive with the relievers than he would have liked on Saturday, but Aaron Civale and Ben Brown soaked up the majority of the lost-cause work, which gives the skipper plenty of angles to play in Games 2 and 3. Let's talk about those angles, and specifically, the plan Counsell and his staff are likely to sketch to get to Out No. 27 Monday night, in a game that is just this side of a must-win. First, let's approximate the lineup the Brewers will deploy. Jackson Chourio tested his hamstring on the workout day Sunday, and it looks like he avoided a serious injury that would take him off the roster for the balance of the series, but he seems unlikely to be on the card for Game 2. That poses a challenge to Pat Murphy, who relies on Chourio and catcher William Contreras as the right-handed counterweights to his three best left-handed batters in the top half of the batting order—especially when a lefty is on the bump for the opponent. He does have the luxury, though, of sliding Andrew Vaughn up into the heart of the order if needed. Here's a best guess of what Milwaukee will send out to counter Imanaga and whatever else the Cubs have in store. Brice Turang - 2B William Contreras - C Christian Yelich - DH Andrew Vaughn - 1B Sal Frelick - RF Caleb Durbin - 3B Isaac Collins - LF Blake Perkins - CF Joey Ortiz - SS Expect Imanaga to face that entire order once. The real fun starts right after that. With the off day coming after this one as the series changes venues and Imanaga having struggled so much lately, there's little chance that the team will ask him to work his way through the lineup even a second time. The only dilemma is whether to let him face Turang a second time or not. In August, Turang torched a ball against Imanaga, a ferocious line drive to right field on a fastball that the lefty had aimed for the outer edge but which ended up on the inner third. In general, though, Imanaga has had his number; that hit is Turang's only bit of success in nine plate appearances. Therefore, for my money, Imanaga should get Turang, too. After that, though, it's Colin Rea time. Counsell should give the ball to Rea for the balance of the Brewers' second trip through the order. The rest of the game's plan depends partially on how those two pitch and what the offense can muster against Aaron Ashby and (almost certainly) Quinn Priester, but here's a best guess at how things might map out: Imanaga: 10 batters Rea: 8 batters Drew Pomeranz: 3 batters (Turang, Contreras, Yelich, third time) Daniel Palencia: 7 batters (the bottom six in the lineup, Turang the fourth time) Andrew Kittredge: 5 batters (Contreras, Yelich, Vaughn, Frelick, Durbin, fourth time) Brad Keller: 3 batters (Collins, Perkins, Ortiz, fourth time) Caleb Thielbar: Likely, whatever's left of the game (Turang, Contreras, Yelich, Vaughn, Frelick, fifth time) In reality, you hope that the game is more condensed than this. Over the last five years, teams who face exactly 36 batters in road games are exactly .500 (623-623), so if you have to go any further than the end of the fourth trip through the order, you're in trouble. The Cubs would prefer that Palencia and/or Kittredge are so efficient that Keller comes in a few batters sooner, to close out a win in the ninth. You have to plan for something worse than the ideal, though, especially when facing the Brewers and their relentless on-base machine of an offense. No important Chicago pitcher will be unavailable in this game, as the team tries to steal one at The Ueck before coming home to the Friendly Confines. They have such ample chances to rest the hurlers they do use that they're likely to pull the plug on Imanaga before trouble can truly roil, and then to be aggressive in the way they deploy the rest of the trustworthy arms. It's important to have a map, but as Game 1 (painfully) reminded the Cubs, the Brewers are good at tearing up your map and forcing you to start pressing buttons almost desperately. Chicago's ability to avoid the early haymaker will determine whether they can convert a good gameplan into a much-needed win. View full article

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images Rather than hand the ball directly to Quinn Priester (who will still, in all likelihood, pitch the majority of the game) Monday, the Brewers announced on Sunday's off day in Milwaukee that they intend to start left-handed reliever Aaron Ashby in Game 2 of the NLDS. It's a wrinkle made not only possible, but downright convenient, thanks to the league's strange new way of starting the Division Series on the same day before shifting them onto different schedules. Though some have wrongly concluded that MLB doesn't want to contend with the NFL for viewership on Sundays, the league's real reason for doing this is to preserve the advantage for teams who earn a bye while still staggering the DIvision Series schedule, to avoid totally dark days on the postseason calendar. Because Game 1 and Game 2 will begin some 55 hours apart, the Brewers can very comfortably turn around Ashby, who got four outs on 16 pitches on Saturday afternoon. They won't even need to worry about stretching him out a bit, as they often do, if that's what the circumstances demand. After all, there's also another off day Tuesday, as the two teams make the arduous journey from Milwaukee to Chicago. The breather after a Game 1 beatdown will do the Cubs and their weary bullpen some good; this is the Brewers' way of trying to claw back their share of the value in the lacuna. Ashby has been one of the best relievers in baseball this year. Thwarted in his hopes of returning to starting work this spring when he was sidelined with an oblique strain, the southpaw embraced his role as a multi-inning weapon for Murphy and has utterly dominated opposing batters, leaning mostly on the combination of his uniquely heavy high-slot sinker (approaching 100 miles per hour doesn't hurt) and 12-to-6 curveball. He's been good against everybody, but the platoon split is real and worth discussing: vs. LHH: .193/.299/.241, 29.2% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, 82.9 mph exit velocity, -4° launch angle vs. RHH: .245/.312/.348, 27.5% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate, 91.4 mph exit velocity, 2° launch angle Typically, the Cubs' lineup starts with lefty slugger Michael Busch, and in Game 1, lefty Kyle Tucker batted third. Considering each of them and the fact that Ian Happ hits better from the left side, Pat Murphy is choosing to use Ashby to shield Priester from the worst matchups the Cubs offer him. Though the organization has done their best to cast the matter in some doubt, it's overwhelmingly likely that Priester will take over from Ashby after an inning or so of work. The idea is simply to shift the rollover of the lineup card, from Priester's perspective, just as that was the Cubs' hope when they used Andrew Kittredge in fron of Shota Imanaga in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against San Diego. The big difference is that. in a game laid expansively between two off days, the Brewers don't need length from Priester; the Cubs did need to find the best possible recipe to get four or five innings out of Imanaga last week. The Brewers might well bullpen this whole game, deploying Ashby and Priester only as the first two in a string of hurlers who appear. They're not as deep as they were a year or two ago, but Milwaukee has a handful of solid relievers and ways to give Craig Counsell tough choices from a matchup perspective. In fact, because they're coming off a long layoff (rather than a three-game playoff series) and have played coy with Ashby as their starter, Milwaukee could even choose to use Jose Quintana in this game, rather than in Game 3 as most have anticipated. It's very tough to pin down what will happen after Ashby departs, and in fact, that's almost sure to depend on where the game stands after the first inning or two. Priester is still very, very likely to work multiple frames, but there are several ways the Brewers could cut back against the grain if the Cubs overcommit themselves to their expectation of that. All things considered, then, there's a clear best batting order for Counsell to begin Monday night's game: Nico Hoerner - 2B Justin Turner - 1B Seiya Suzuki - RF Kyle Tucker - DH Ian Happ - LF Carson Kelly - C Pete Crow-Armstrong - CF Dansby Swanson - SS Matt Shaw - 3B That's how Chicago should stack things, to best punish the Brewers' tactic and gain the strategic edge throughout the game. After Jared Koenig's recent return to form against righties, Ashby is the lefty arm the team most needs to fear from Milwaukee, and they're giving the Cubs the luxury of having him locked into the first three batters of the game. That's an opportunity not to be missed. Nico Hoerner, Justin Turner and Seiya Suzuki should greet Ashby in the top of the first, with one eye fixed on the Milwaukee bullpen. Yes, this means giving up an at-bat for Busch, which Murphy might regard as a win unto itself. In truth, though, Turner (.276/.330/.429) has been much better than Busch (.207/.274/.368) against lefties this season. Counsell could respond to Murphy's ploy by sliding Busch down to sixth in the order (going, perhaps, Hoerner—Suzuki—Tucker—Kelly—Happ—Busch—Swanson—Crow-Armstrong—Shaw), daring his former mentor and colleague to keep Ashby around for six or eight batters, but what if Murphy's plan is to insert Quintana to replace Ashby, after all? In that case, Counsell wouldn't have gained an at-bat for Busch against a righty. He'd only have stuffed Kelly and his inconsistent bat into the cleanup spot, without gaining enough in return. Turner should bat in the first, but be subject to a pinch-runner (probably just Busch, but if Counsell really wants to press his luck, he could turn to Kevin Alcántara) if and when he reaches base. Busch can take over in the bottom of the first on defense. and from then on, the Cubs lineup will function roughly as usual, with Hoerner, Busch, Suzuki, and Tucker alternating handedness through the meat of the batting order. Tucker (.269/.365/.461 against lefties this year), of course, is no slouch even against the likes of Ashby. To get to a really good matchup, Murphy would have to stick with Ashby all the way to the eighth batter, Pete Crow-Armstrong. It's far more likely that he'll flip to Priester after three or five batters, at which point the Cubs will have forced his hand and given themselves the best possible chance to draw first blood. Counsell has been so reluctant to actively use his bench that this approach seems as much a no-brainer as using an opener is, in itself. Turner won't replace Busch (or even Crow-Armstrong) late in games, but it should be a much easier sell to have him take one at-bat at the front end of a long game. He might have a major impact, and once he's out of the mix, the Cubs will be back to business as usual at the plate. Monday night will be a barn-burner. The pressure to escape The Ueck with a win is huge; the Cubs will be pressing buttons a bit more eagerly in their own right. The Brewers are trying to bait Counsell into something, and to undermine the excellent production Busch has provided atop the batting order. To catch them overextended and create a counterattack, Counsell has to be willing to shake up his lineup a bit. View full article

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images In the flow of a game, amid the thunder and bluster of a raucous crowd and a playoff series, the play looks normal. Sal Frelick hit a slow, looping grounder to the right side of the infield. Nico Hoerner charged it. If Hoerner had made the play cleanly, it would have been an easy out, and the Cubs would have been close to escaping a rough first inning. They were already down 2-1, but that's no insurmountable deficit. The chance was right there for Hoerner. You know what happened, instead. Hoerner stooped and reached as he ran, but the ball stayed down. It hit the tip of his glove, but rolled past him, allowing Frelick to reach safely. Andrew Vaughn pulled into second, and the heads-up William Contreras wheeled around third and scored well ahead of a hopeless Hoerner peg to the plate. Suddenly, it was not only 3-1, but 3-1 and counting. There was only one out, and the crowd at Uecker Field hit a new decibel level, and it would have taken something more than Matthew Boyd had to offer to get out of the inning unscathed. What do you say about such a play? Is it a lapse by Hoerner? A product of the moment, and the Brewers' famous offensive momentum? In part, of course, the answer is yes, times two. Hoerner himself took a big dose of responsibility for the loss after the game. “If you just get an out like you do most of the time in that situation,” Hoerner said (as reported by Jordan Bastian of MLB.com), “I love Matty’s chances to get out of that inning with two runs and settle in like you’ve seen him do so many times this year.” It's impossible not to muse about whether Hoerner would have made the play correctly and gotten Frelick at first base, had there not been some tension and anxiety already building up because of the Brewers' two-run answer to the Cubs' opening salvo, a Michael Busch leadoff home run. It seems plausible, at least. Maybe that goes double because Frelick runs well, which forces infielders to think about quicker ways to make plays on slowly-hit balls and often invites mistakes. The Cubs got unlucky, in the way the ball came off Frelick's bat and the situation they were in. Hoerner, however, had a chance to make a play in either of two ways. He just didn't succeed. Let's break down how freaky this little floater was. Frelick took a healthy swing on the 0-1 pitch from Matthew Boyd. He was looking for a slider, but he got a sinker. As a result, he hit a ball that: Came from a swing with a bat speed of 70 miles per hour; Left the bat at 49.5 miles per hour; Had a 14° launch angle; and Traveled 93 feet before its first feather-soft bounce, just shy of the infield dirt. That's just not a normal batted ball, by any definition. Even slackening the parameters somewhat, I found just 10 batted balls all season that roughly fit the above criteria. You might think it sounds like a typical Brewers—maybe even a quintessentially Frelick—batted ball, but it's not. On the very rare occasions when a guy hits a ball this way, it's usually a power hitter who got hilariously jammed. In only one of the 10 instances did it even result in a broken bat. Sorry, buddy. When you clip this small a piece of the ball with this small a piece of the bat, you don't even break it. Breaking the bat would mean you hit it better than you just did. Softly hit balls can be dangerous, especially coming from big swings, but ones like this don't even tend to be so. The batter rarely gets out of the box well, because they got so jammed it stops their feet a moment. Plus, these aren't going to die in the grass somewhere far short of a fielder's starting position. They tend to be weird-looking, floating liners, sometimes caught by the pitcher but often played on a dying bounce or two by an infielder and thrown across with ease. Here's what made this play different. First, Frelick pulled the ball, which is peculiar. Most of these go either back up the middle or to the batter's opposite side; they were very late to the ball. Frelick was less so, and the angle of his bat and the riding shape of Boyd's sinker produced a ball hit toward the hole between first and second. Second, with two runners on base and one out, Hoerner had been playing a step closer to second base than he normally would against a lefty batter. Here's the first frame of the TNT broadcast after it cuts from the center-field camera to the one high and behind home plate. Hoerner's first instinct, reading Frelick's swing and the trajectory of the ball, was to charge and surround it, turning his shoulders slightly toward second base as he fielded the ball to throw there and start a double play. Even as the ball comes off the turf on its first bounce and passes in front of Vaughn, that's Hoerner's thought. You can see him squaring to it, preparing that turn and sidearm fire to Swanson. Very, very soon after that, though, Hoerner knew something was wrong. The ball wasn't getting to him fast enough. It was too weakly hit for a double play, at least in the overwhelming majority of cases. Here, you can see his body (his brain had time to do only a fraction of this thinking, but your muscle memory kicks in faster and can sometimes lead you astray) trying to figure out how he'll get to the ball fast enough and under enough control to get it to Swanson with the required alacrity. Carson Kelly, however, has clocked all of this. Notice him pointing Hoerner toward first. That's where the safe play is. That brings us to the moment when, finally, ball and fielder are about to intersect. This has all been one agonizingly slow bounce, until now, the ball drifting much more dreamily than it does most of the time, just when everyone is programmed to be going extra fast. Now, Hoerner is addressing it, and he's turned his shoulders toward first, at least half-aware that that's where the play should go—but his right foot never gave up on the double play. He's changed direction slightly, but not decelerated much, and that right foot says he had at least half a thought of picking the ball, using a reverse pivot to find the missing power in the play, and throwing to Swanson anyway. And the heartbreaking thing is: he was right. That could have worked, at least to get Vaughn, and possibly to turn what would have been a game-changing double play. Look where the runners are as he gets to the ball. Frelick hadn't gotten out of the box well, either. Picking it on the run and making an unhurried throw to first was a valid option. That low dig and ferocious whirling throw to Swanson was a valid option, although a riskier one. Unfortunately, cursed with a little more time than plays like that usually give, Hoerner got caught between the possibilities. Plus, one more thing: the ball absolutely died on the dirt, in a way only a ball hit phenomenally weakly can. Hoerner had had time to account for that in some measure by then, but the first bounce off the grass fooled him. A ball that gets a healthy hop off the turf rarely then dies on the dirt; it's more like the other way around. Hoerner has to get lower, but he did try to get pretty low, considering that he was still making the play on the move. The ball just won the game of "how low can you go?", in improbable fashion. One out there makes a big difference. Two tilts the game back toward the Cubs. The actual unfolding of the play was a calamity from which the Cubs didn't recover, and probably never had a chance to. It's bad luck, but it's also the kind of pressure the Brewers apply: there are always runners on, putting more things in your head; there's always speed going down the line, rushing your decisions; and there's always a bit of a frenzy going inside Uecker Field when the home team is assembling a rally. It was all too much for the Cubs Saturday—even too much for their stellar defensive second baseman. View full article

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images It wasn't just that Kyle Tucker went 0-3 in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series Tuesday. That much, you could forgive. Tucker only made it back from the injured list for the final three games of the regular season, after missing most of September with a calf strain. In the course of going 1-11 in that series against the Cardinals, Tucker found some solace in the fact that his timing and his mental approach still felt right. That optimism wasn't wholly unjustifiable, either. It's great to be on time at the plate, and difficult to do so coming back cold from three weeks on the shelf. He also drew a walk during the games, so he was making at least some good swing decisions. On the other hand, his swing certainly didn't look fully restored. It was fair to say that he was seeing the ball well and reacting correctly, but the movement of the barrel wasn't as controlled or fluid as it had been for much of the season—and certainly not as much so as over the last 10 days or so before his injury, when he seemed to finally shake the slump that swallowed his summer. He wasn't right, even if he claimed to feel (basically) right. That showed up in ugly fashion in Tucker's Cubs playoff debut Tuesday, when he went 0-3 with a strikeout even as the Cubs won, 3-1. He didn't make solid contact, and the under-the-hood metrics shouted out the problem: deficient bat speed and no tilt on the swing, which made his timing lousy even when he correctly identified pitches. It was a nadir; it seemed to prove what the weekend had hinted at. It was fair to worry whether Tucker would be able to make a meaningful contribution to the team's effort to push deeper into the postseason. In Game 2, though, he figured something out. Interestingly, the first sign of hope came when he struck out swinging, in the fourth. bmJaS2dfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0J3ZFNBVkFOQWdFQUFGTUFVZ0FIQlFaZkFBTlFWbEFBVmxGV1VRSlhCUUZXVkFvRA==.mp4 Yes, Dylan Cease flat-out beat Tucker there. He threw him a fastball at the top edge of the zone in a 3-2 count, at 99.7 miles per hour. Cease's fastball has big carry, too, so it appeared to rise at the end for Tucker. He swung somewhat under it. It was an unfortunate result. It was also a sign that he was in the right mindset, and had the right swing ready. You don't want Kyle Tucker swinging the way he can swing to touch that pitch. If a pitcher successfully executes that pitch, Tucker should strike out; you have to be ok with that. Sometimes, the other guy wins. If Tucker were unable to pull the trigger, or seemed so late he was handcuffed by the velocity of Cease, that would be trouble. It would also be trouble if he'd swung and hit a flyout, which was the best-case scenario for the combination of that pitch's speed, its movement, its location, and Tucker's swing. Whiffing on it, instead, was a sign that Tucker was ready to cover the whole strike zone and to hit any of Cease's likely offerings in that spot. It was a sign that he could get the hands moving quickly enough to swing competitively. And it showed some tilt in his swing, as opposed to that hideous flatness that became his habit from late June through mid-August. Tucker shot a single to center at the end of that loss to the Padres, continuing the positive trend and moving it into the realm of results. In the bottom of the second inning Thursday, he also got the barrel to a high fastball from Yu Darvish, scalding the ball to right field. V0Fack1fV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1VBaFpVRlFGVkFvQUNGWUNVQUFIQUFOVEFGbFdWbFFBQ2dNQ1VnQUZBd1pkVWxGVg==.mp4 When the pitcher only throws 93 and doesn't quite hit their spot, you'd love to punish them with an extra-base hit—but one thing at a time. Darvish's pitch was still up in the zone, and Tucker still got around it nicely. The next time he stepped to the plate, he delivered a third straight single, this one to left field. V0Fack1fV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0FnUlVWVk5SWGdFQUR3QUFWQUFIQVZkVUFBTlFWVlFBQmxWUkFRWUFBd0ZUVWdkUw==.mp4 Jeremiah Estrada, like Cease, will climb the ladder on you in terms of both location and velocity. Locked in on the fact that the Padres were trying to get him out with high heat, though, Tucker got good wood on them. How? Firstly, after plunging into the mid-60s on most of his swings over the weekend and even in Game 1, Tucker is swinging faster the last two games. He gained some confidence from a first look at the Padres' playoff pitching staff, and immediately unlocked more of his bat speed. Below, you can see the ugly valley of the previous few days, and the climb created by his barrel accelerating over the final two games of the San Diego series. We've discussed this before, though. Bat speed really won't tell the story, where Tucker is concerned. He's not elite in terms of sheer velocity. When he's going well, he's elite in his ability to hit the ball squarely, and to create some lift on it. To get there, he needs to catch the ball while working uphill and he needs to get around it just a bit. He hadn't been doing that, prior to Wednesday. Over the last several plate appearances he's taken, he has. He's also found the tilt in his swing that allows him to create loft without getting too early and rolling over on the ball. You might notice that the swing tilt is still down, relative to lots of recent stretches, even after its uptick in the last two days. That's not a reason to worry, though; it's just him reacting to what teams are doing to him. His swing plane is flatter than average the last two days, but that's because the Padres fed him a steady diet of upper-90s heaters at the top of the zone. You can't hit that kind of pitch with a 38° swing plane. You need the flatter version of your best swing, without losing whatever baseline tilt is an ineluctable part of that swing's identity. Tucker is striking that balance gorgeously over the last handful of times he's come to the plate, against great pitchers who had a plan to force him to catch up to them upstairs. The Padres pitching staff, as a group, is exceptionally good at hammering the top edge of the strike zone with heaters. For all the things they do well, that's not true of the Brewers. Tucker will see a wider variety of pitches during the NLDS than he did this wek, and in a wider variety of locations—including some down and out over the plate. With the swing he's honed by forcing himself not to get too flat against high fastballs in the high 90s, Tucker will be ready to punish those offerings from Milwaukee hurlers. He's healthy, now, and he's back in rhythm. Perhaps most importantly, though, he's also ironed out the kinks that remained in his swing as recently as Tuesday. That's a huge development for a Cubs team aspiring to a deep run in these playoffs; Seiya Suzuki shouldn't have to be a one-man slugging band in this round. View full article

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images This season was a frustrating one for Jameson Taillon, personally. He wasn't able to take the ball as often as he expects of himself—not for the reasons that feel inevitable and understandable, like a balky elbow, but because of groin and calf strains. He put up good numbers when on the mound, but he knew there was more to give. The starts he missed felt big; the Cubs' thin-stretched starting rotation was part of the reason why they fell slowly out of the NL Central race after the trade deadline. With the team's clinch of a playoff berth, though, came a new chance to come through for the team, the way Taillon is always desperate to. He's a team-first guy, playing one of the most individualistic positions in team sport. He knows he can execute, and come up with the big outs in big moments, but he wasn't able to create that chance for himself this summer. He needed the autumn to deliver another opportunity. Unfortunate as it was, Cade Horton's injury after the team secured their place in the postseason gave Taillon an opening. The Cubs and Padres splitting the first two games left them needing a third starter in the first round, and Taillon was there. And he was brilliant. As a starting pitcher, there are two ways you move your team toward a win in a winner-advances game like Thursday's: Keep runs off the board better than the other guy; and Get more sheer outs than the other guy. Obviously, the first is more important, but the second thing matters, too. It matters a lot. The Padres' pen was more exhausted than the Cubs', entering Thursday, but the Cubs had concerns of their own. With all hands on deck (but fatigue a real factor for some and the next round to think about, too), being able to go to the bullpen later than one's opponent is an undeniable advantage. It won't make up for giving up three more runs than the other guy, but if you only give up one more and you also give your team seven or eight more outs than the other guy, you might still let your team come out ahead. Taillon eliminated that tricky math, because he was much, much better than Yu Darvish, on both measures. Darvish gave up one run (and was charged with a second, when the Cubs doubled their lead after he left with the bases loaded in the bottom of the second). Taillon gave up none. And Taillon got nine more outs than Darvish, leaving the Padres drawing way too deep into the well way too early, and chasing the game to boot. In his former life, a big injury or three ago, Taillon was a swing-and-miss guy. He could be a strikeout artist. That's not him anymore, though. He's only induced whiffs on about 20% of opponents' swings the last two years. He's not a whiff monster—except that, on Thursday, he was. Taillon induced 11 whiffs on 31 swings, against one of the league's highest-contact lineups. He struck out four, but he also got so many whiffs (and called strikes) within at-bats that he seemed to be constantly ahead in the count. His velocity wasn't markedly different than it usually is, but his changeup and cutter each had an extra bit of depth, and it made a world of difference. Taillon spun four shutout innings. He got some help from the Cubs' marvelous defense, along the way, but he left after four, having only allowed two hits and struck out four, without walking anyone. When Caleb Thielbar took over to begin the fifth, the Cubs led 2-0—and they were way ahead in the pitching race, too. It wouldn't have been 2-0, though, without Dansby Swanson. Like Taillon, Swanson is in his third season with the Cubs. Like Taillon, he signed a big contract with them, and like Taillon, he's generally been viewed as underwhelming from a return-on-investment standpoint. If you keep creating chances, though, redemption eventually becomes possible. Swanson, who takes such fierce pride in playing (almost, now) every day, stayed healthy this year. He stayed engaged, despite hitting into some truly lousy luck and not getting sequences of good swing decisions quite right throughout the first half. Down the stretch, he was much better at the plate—and his defense began to shine, in the small and wonderful ways that are unique to the aging shortstop making up for the slight diminishment of their athleticism. He was as important to the Cubs getting to October as (almost) anyone. And Thursday, he was as important to them taking the next step as anyone—no 'almost' about it. Swanson was a human highlight reel throughout the series. He stole a hit or two from Ryan O'Hearn in Game 1. He made a handful of strong plays Wednesday, always smooth and athletic, always seeming to release the ball as soon as he got ahold of it, making up for the lack of an elite arm by getting the throw airborne sooner than another shortstop would have. On Thursday, he seemed to be ubiquitous. He stole one hit by knocking down a would-be line drive single to center by Luis Arráez, then quickly recovering from not catching it and throwing Arráez out. He stole another from Arráez on a grounder later in the game, running left and diving to smother before throwing out the slow-footed first baseman. He closed down one Padres rally with a 6-3 double play, on which he had to run four or five steps at a dead sprint to second before throwing on the run for the twin killing. He was mistake-free, and rangy, and gorgeous. He was also the biggest reason they had a lead to work with, that his glove could protect. In the bottom of the second, as Darvish folded under a vicious assault by the middle of the Cubs lineup, they got one run on the board. The bases were loaded with nobody out, and Mike Shildt went to his bullpen—to strikeout machine and former Cubs righty Jeremiah Estrada. Swanson was due up, and Estrada jumped ahead of him 1-2. Then, Swanson went to work. He forced a seven-pitch walk, which drove home the second run and set the tone for the rest of the night. The Cubs would stay ahead in the pitching race, that at-bat said, and they would have a multi-run lead to protect while doing so. Swanson has been as patient as ever this year, but the walk rate hasn't always tracked to that. Lately, he's done a very impressive job of converting his three-ball counts to walks. It makes a huge difference; it certainly did Thursday. Between that patient at-bat and his great defense, he was the man of the match for Chicago. Throughout the series, he was nails. Never get between Dansby Swanson and a championship, once his sights are on it. The game froze at 2-0 a long time, and looked like it might have to end that way. (Given the trouble the Cubs had getting the final three outs, thank goodness that wasn't the case.) As sunset approached, the seventh-inning stretch passed, and the Padres asked Robert Suarez to work into a second inning. They probably envisioned him throwing that whole frame. Instead, in Wrigley Field's golden hour under fall's color splashes, Michael Busch delivered magic to match the majesty. It was a very neat equivalent to Kyle Schwarber's game-sealing homer in the 2015 NLDS. All that was missing was the video-board landing. Of players with at least 500 plate appearances this season, Busch had the 10th-highest DRC+ in the majors—behind guys like Schwarber and Cal Raleigh, but ahead of guys like Corbin Carroll, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and (yes) Fernando Tatis Jr. This was an earned heroic turn; Busch has been the biggest reason for the Cubs' consistent success this year. The pitch he hit was wonderfully reminiscent of one on which he walked off the Padres almost 18 months ago, when he was a rookie and there still seemed to be problematic holes in his swing. The fastball up and away, they said, would get Busch out. It did, until it didn't, and when he's ready for it, not even 98 with plenty of air under it is enough to keep you safe. Busch put the cherry on the sundae; the party started right then. Of course, it was nearly pooped by a tenacious Padres rally. There's no quit in San Diego's team, and plenty of talent, even with some injuries that diminished them during this tangle. They avoided being down by more thanks to close calls (and reviews that went their way) on baserunning plays involving Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner. They nearly benefited from another hair's-breadth Cubs heartbreak when Jake Cronenworth tried to beat out a ninth-inning dribbler, but Matt Shaw made a great play and Busch (for the second or third time in the game) made a dispositively excellent stretch to the ball. Chicago survived, and they now advance to face the Brewers in what will be one of the most charged Division Series showdowns in history. It was a team effort, but the heroics of Taillon, Swanson and Busch stand out from the crowd. The second-gutsiest trade Jed Hoyer has made since taking over the team paid off hugely. So did two of his biggest free-agent outlays. With the season swinging in the balance, the Cubs found the right answers at just the right moments. View full article

He did decelerate in the slide more than you'd expect. Made it close. But no.

Great job by Nico, Kelly was a *liiiiitle* high though.

I've got him safe.

5th of *512* in four-seamer rate with two strikes. Just throws too many damn fastballs. Still a good pitcher! Could be even better imo. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF|&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=2strikes|&hfSea=2025|&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=100&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitch_percent&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_count=on#results

Hate that pitch selection. Throw the slider. You played right into his hands there.

I think I'd have stuck with Taillon for this inning, too. BUT, I also get why Craig chose this path.

Brown/McDonald/Mendoza is a good booth. I think if they were on a different platform and being produced differently than these broadcasts are on ESPN, we'd be LOVING them. Alas.

Seiya should be a good matchup for Estrada..

Even though they didn't blow it open, forcing Estrada to throw 17 pitches in the 2nd was big. Outs vs. available/trustworthy arms clock is ticking a lot louder for the Pads right now than for the Cubs.

That's right. Effectively, he called timeout just as the play clock was hitting zero. No delay of game. (This is still how I think about it, even though I'm no great football fan. 😄 )

Shaw's little burp of a hot month was great, but he's got a long way to go yet, man.

Freddy Fermin playing hero ball behind the plate today for them but it's not enough.

Gotta gotta gotta add on. But boy does it seem hard to get from here to Out No. 27 for SD now. I mean you've gotta be ready to BURN an arm, and that willingness has to pay off in the form of that guy actually having it.

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images Winner-advances games are the most fun dynamic baseball gives us. The compression of a Wild Card Series—with so little buildup, no days off and no changes of venue—slightly diminishes the magic one feels ahead of a Game 5 or a Game 7, but even a Game 3 can take on the frenzied feel of an all-in hand of poker. The way the Cubs and Padres each played to get to their date on Thursday evening, that feeling will be cranked up to its maximum. Let's begin with the dramatis personae for this play in nine acts. Projected Padres Lineup Fernando Tatis Jr. - RF Luis Arráez - 1B Manny Machado - 3B Jackson Merrill - CF Xander Bogaerts - SS Ryan O'Hearn - DH Gavin Sheets - LF Jake Cronenworth - 2B Freddy Fermin - C This is the same group the visitors have run out to begin each of the first two games. The Cubs are starting a righty Thursday, rather than the southpaws who took up the bulk on Tuesday and Wednesday, but honestly, the San Diego lineup makes more sense against righties, anyway. Projected Cubs Lineup Michael Busch - 1B Nico Hoerner - 2B Ian Happ - LF Kyle Tucker - DH Seiya Suzuki - RF Carson Kelly - C Pete Crow-Armstrong - CF Dansby Swanson - SS Matt Shaw - 3B This, too, is the same group the Cubs have already been using. There'd ordinarily be an argument for batting Pete Crow-Armstrong ahead of Carson Kelly, but the Cubs are trying to keep their very right-leaning bottom half of the batting order broken up enough to deter some of the more devastating bullpen tricks Mike Shildt might otherwise throw at them. Starting Pitchers Yu Darvish - 15 GS, 72 IP, 5.38 ERA, 23% K, 6.4% BB, 4.7% HR, 39.4% GB, 97 DRA- Jameson Taillon - 23 GS, 129 2/3 IP, 3.68 ERA, 18.9% K, 5.2% BB, 4.6% HR, 33.8% GB, 114 DRA- You don't need exhaustive histories on either of these guys right now. Neither will work especially deep into this game, anyway. Matt Ostrowski wrote a great piece about Taillon's transformation this year via his altered changeup this morning, and I included a bunch of thoughts about Darvish in my scene-setter for the morning. Check those out, if you haven't already done so. The Crucial Bullpen Picture To speak about these questions more concretely and more accurately, let's review the Bullpen Usage chart for each team. First, for the Padres. Player SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT Estrada 19 0 0 10 0 29 Morgan 0 21 0 0 0 21 Miller 17 0 0 13 27 57 Hart 0 0 0 0 0 0 Suárez 9 0 0 0 18 27 Morejón 8 0 0 9 33 50 Peralta 0 0 0 6 0 6 Rodríguez 0 21 0 0 0 21 Matsui 37 0 0 0 0 37 Vasquez 0 19 0 0 0 19 It's a win-or-go-home situation, so everyone is available. That said, the Padres have stretched themselves quite thin in relief. Maybe it makes the most sense to begin by talking about the non-premium arms here. It's incredible to watch Bradgley Rodríguez pitch, working at 98-99 miles per hour with two different fastballs and a dedicated secondary for both lefties and righties. He has an arm good enough to rank right alongside Jeremiah Estrada and claim high-leverage work. However, if Shildt really trusted him, he wouldn't be in the group of hurlers who haven't warmed up yet this series and who absorbed some spare innings Sunday. Clearly, there's at least a nagging doubt that he'll hold together under the pressure of a good opposing offense in the playoffs. Unless Darvish falls apart early, don't expect to see Rodríguez. David Morgan and Yuki Matsui are better candidates to do some bridge work. Each has the same weakness: a walk rate up around 12%. The Cubs have really struggled to convert good at-bats to walks lately, though, so that weakness might be mitigated by this particular opponent. Each can be nasty, but each (Morgan righty-righty, Matsui lefty-lefty) is someone Shildt would prefer to hold for narrow matchup work. Randy Vásquez and Kyle Hart are on the roster in case the game goes 12 or 16 innings. Of the remaining hurlers, it's too much to assume that any are unavailable, but there are some places where usage will be tightly constrained. Wandy Peralta will be the first choice for Shildt whenever he decides he needs a big out against a lefty batter, be that Michael Busch, Kyle Tucker or Pete Crow-Armstrong. Adrián Morejón is one of two pitchers I would guess Shildt will try to stay away from entirely, if possible. He just pitched so much in Game 2. The other barely-available arm (thankfully, if you're a Cubs supporter) is Mason Miller. He's a long-term investment for the team. He would need to be intact for the Division Series for them to have a chance there. As tempting as it might be to call upon him for a third straight day, I think Shildt will do everything possible to avoid that. It helps the Cubs' cause a bit that they forced Robert Suarez to throw 18 pitches to save Game 2. That might keep him to just one inning of work Thursday—though given the aggressive deployment Shildt decided on with both Morejón and Miller Wednesday, it seems like whenever the situation demands it, Suarez will be there. The wild card is Jeremiah Estrada. He has filthy stuff, but he's been human this year. He didn't look great Tuesday, but would love the chance to redeem himself more than any other pitcher out there, after the Cubs gave up on him too soon two years ago. He'll be the first-choice right-handed reliever, if Darvish gets San Diego into the middle of the game with anything like a lead. Specifically, because this can matter, here's who each of the important relievers has faced so far in the series. These guys might have incremental advantages if the same matchup recurs; batters do adapt to seeing relievers multiple times in a short span. Pitcher/Batter Busch Hoerner Happ Tucker Suzuki Kelly Crow-Armstrong Swanson Shaw Ballesteros Suarez X X X X Miller X XX XX XX X X Estrada X X X Morejón XX XX XX XX X X X Peralta X Now, let's talk about the Cubs' side of the equation. Player SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT Palencia 0 0 0 17 0 17 Soroka 0 7 0 0 6 13 Keller 26 0 0 13 0 39 Kittredge 0 0 0 14 20 34 Pomeranz 11 0 0 11 0 22 Thielbar 15 0 0 0 14 29 Rogers 0 0 0 0 13 13 Rea 0 0 0 0 15 15 Civale 0 0 0 0 0 0 I was very surprised by the way Counsell reeled through his relievers in Game 2, chasing a win that the offense never gave him much chance to claim. Again, everyone is technically available, but in reality, Andrew Kittredge isn't available. He's worked about as hard the last two days as Miller, and although he doesn't throw 104 miles per hour, Kittredge is a graybeard. Trotting him out three days in a row would be asking for trouble. Aaron Civale is the guy on this list who's only there in case of a long extra-inning slog. Colin Rea, a starter by trade who started Friday and threw 15 pitches on his usual rotation day Wednesday, might be available for a short burst Thursday but won't be a priority selection. Otherwise, Counsell's unit is pretty free and fresh. Caleb Thielbar worked on consecutive days 15 times this year and was fine when called upon, but Drew Pomeranz will be the first southpaw Counsell looks to, you'd think. Taylor Rogers will only pitch if Taillon has to leave within about two innings and a true bullpen game breaks out. Daniel Palencia and Brad Keller are not only available, but likely to combine for something like nine outs, if things go according to plan for Counsell. They were each excellent on Tuesday, and neither got the call Wednesday. Indeed, some of Counsell's liberal use of the carousel might have been a way to ensure that he didn't burn out any of the individuals he was using, but that he absolutely wouldn't have to restrict his own choices with regard to Palencia and Keller. Pitcher/Batter Tatis Arraez Machado Merrill Bogaerts O'Hearn Sheets Cronenworth Fermin Johnson Keller X X X Palencia X X X X X Pomeranz X X X Thielbar X X X X Soroka X X Kittredge XX XX X X X Reliever familiarity can matter, but it's probably esoterica in this case. Each manager is really just looking for the right moment to pull their starter and the right decision points to swing from one reliever to the next—and hoping not to hit a whammy along the way. For Counsell, that's probably when Taillon gets through the batting order the second time, just as it was for Matthew Boyd. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Thielbar come in even earlier, though, cutting the day short at 14 or 15 batters faced for the starter and slicing through the lefty lane in the Padres lineup as they come up the second time. Then, the formula could be much the same as it was in Game 1, but with Keller ready to come in an inning earlier. A Few Minor Tactical Notes The Cubs would do well to get Moisés Ballesteros into the game to hit for Matt Shaw or Carson Kelly, if the Padres are locked into a particular righty and the leverage is high enough. Losing a bit of defensive acumen (by going from Kelly to Reese McGuire or Shaw to Willi Castro) is worth it, and the Cubs' bench is plenty deep enough to get through one game. Again, should we see Morgan, keep in mind that he has big platoon splits from the mound side. Darvish and Morgan are the Padres hurlers against whom it's easiest to run. If the Cubs can just get someone on base early, they should be able to take advantage of San Diego by stealing a bag or two. There you have it: all the matchups fit to discuss. This game will be an adventure from first pitch to last. The twists in between are what make playoff baseball a whole different sport than the regular-season version—but a great sport, thank you. With a great deal at stake for each side, this could be hard-fought even for a game of its kind. Savor it. View full article