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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Crazy coincidence how the offense stopped being broken the moment the wind turned around
  2. Bertz
    Nice Pearson's been doing a lot better lately. And with him being more of a veteran a few weeks of strong pitching is easier to buy into. He also has gone 2 IP quite often, so especially with so few off days in this stretch of the schedule even if he sucks he can give you a little length.
  3. Bertz
    Yeah Caissie's batted ball profile has been better basically from the jump this year. And whether by coincidence or consequence it took until basically now for his contact numbers to get back to even the lowly levels they were at last year. But YoY he has: - Cut 6 points from his GB rate - Added 11 points to his hard hit rate - More than doubled his barrel rate - Added 3 points to his pull rate Add it all together and it's quite a bit of change. His batted ball profile last year was in line with 2025 Nick Castellanos. His batted ball profile this year looks like what Kyle Stowers is doing during his breakout. I think it's a good question of whether it's enough considering he's ~800 PAs deep at AAA. But it is a lot.
  4. Bertz
    🍉🔨
  5. Bertz
  6. Bertz
    I'd assume after that as long as he wakes up tomorrow feeling good Shota's next start is against the Cardinals
  7. Bertz
    I would not be surprised if he stays parked at Tenn for much longer than feels necessary specifically to head off the calls for him to reach the bigs for as long as possible.
  8. Bertz
    You post this dripping with sarcasm but pending what the Dodgers do tonight the Cubs have the best record in the NL
  9. Bertz
    I'm begging some of you to follow the league more broadly. Absolutely pleading.
  10. Bertz
    I'd guess when the computers pop out their projections they'll peg him for something in the $350M-$400M range. From there I sort of assume his deal will ultimately start with a 4, just because when you get into this stratosphere optics matter a lot and if the team is willing to do something like $380M or $390M why not stretch a bit more and do $400M to get it done and dusted? 12 years and $410M or something thereabouts?
  11. Bertz
  12. Bertz
    I think it's worth keeping in mind he's the fourth youngest regular at AAA this year, and also the fourth youngest player to get a single MLB AB this year. If he were an american college kid he would be in next month's draft. Given how heavily much the Cubs weight the between the ears aspects of catching, it's not surprising he got passed over. The only two catchers this century to get significant MLB playing time at age 21 or younger are Brian McCann and Francisco Alvarez. And the 2023 Mets sucked. I will say it's not crazy to have other guys 1st. Mo's pretty clearly got the least power of the big four bats at Iowa. And while his age implies oodles of untapped upside, at 5'8" that remaining upside might in reality be pretty limited. I think if you promised me he wouldn't be able to catch in the big leagues I'd rank him somewhere in the 4-6 range.
  13. Bertz
    Got curious about Ben Brown's season so I did some math. 86 guys last year pitched at least 50 innings in both the first half and the second half of the season. Amongst those guys their 1st half ERA had a correlation of 0.19 with their 2nd half ERA. Their first half xFIP had a correlation of 0.46 with their 2nd half ERA. Nearly 2.5x. I know there's an impulse to say "who cares about underlying numbers he's getting shelled now" but the fact of the matter is this stuff tends to sort itself out sooner rather than later. (also on the flip side the Cubs' bullpen is outperforming its xFIP by a full run, so steel yourself for that inevitable regression)
  14. Bertz
    Wood and Bremner still on the board in this scenario
  15. Bertz
    Hey look at that, someone getting worse luck than Brown! Kirby is awesome, but at home with the wind (I believe) blowing out and Boyd on the bump the Cubs should still probably be light favorites.
  16. Bertz
    Just checked and Jordan Wicks averaged 94 and touched 96 today?! Really interested to see if that is a thing now or if it was purely because this was a short start. Though even if its the latter Wicks as a MIRP might need to be under heavier consideration.
  17. Bertz
    A lot of the (perceived?) lower ceiling SP's in the system have been absolutely balling out the last month or so
  18. Bertz
    What an outing from Wicks. Would be awesome if the time on the shelf helped him, whether that be physically or mentally. (Also worth noting he was due a little positive regression on the batted ball front)
  19. Bertz
    Rojas, Hernandez, and Brethowr all out of the SB lineup
  20. Bertz
    I was just wondering when this would happen. Sharma said last weekend he was close to game action.
  21. Bertz
    You absolutely cannot burn you leverage relievers in the 5th inning of a game you're already losing when you don't have another off day for a week and a half
  22. Bertz
    Horsefeathers yeah!
  23. Bertz
    The problem for those teams is that they are not providing supply commensurate with that demand. Like the Dbacks can ask for whoever they want but it doesn't make Merrill Kelly any less Merrill Kelly. Unless the Braves or Nats reverse course on Chris Sale or Mackenzie Gore I don't think there's a reasonable Wiggins package out there.
  24. Bertz
  25. Bertz
    I'd be pretty surprised if Rojas gets dealt. and certainly wouldn't expect is. to be someone that the team will go to market actively shopping. He's further away from MLB, but that's likely more feature than bug at this point. His ETA if things continue to progress well is more or less right as Nico hits free agency. He's also a year and a half from needing to be added to the 40 man roster. I'd suspect that Caissie and Alcantara are indeed the top trade chips that get bandied about the next six weeks. I also wouldn't be surprised if some starting pitching gets sent out the door. None of the immediate MLB depth obviously, but potentially some of the next wave guys like Sanders. Maybe Wicks, despite being more ready, just because of how far down the depth chart he is?
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