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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I don't think your charts cover the same date ranges, because that's not what FG is showing for YTD right now
  2. Bertz
    Holy cow you're totally right. Last year it looks like he got hot on June 28th and basically stayed hot the rest of the year. Through June 27: .249/.302/.371, 100 wRC+ June 28th+: .304/.395/.478, 139 wRC+ So damn near a year to the day. He should have waited until today to get hot instead of start in the week!
  3. Bertz
    Really glad they got this win in. Realistically 7 games on the road against quality teams and you should be okay with 3-4, so they've locked that in. And with two uncompetitive games followed by an off day Monday, I think Craig can lean on the bullpen a little extra tomorrow and try to steal a win against Valdez.
  4. Bertz
    Alcantara is scorching hot right now, I love it
  5. Bertz
  6. Bertz
    Chris Kachmar struck out 9 guys today. His 3rd time this month striking out at least 8. As far as I can tell from game logs he had one 8 K game last year, and one in '21, and that's as far as he's topped out in his career prior to this month. The degree to which Tyler Zombro is turning water into wine all over the system since ~Memorial Day is honestly starting to concern me. Like is every fungible arm in the system learning some new fad pitch that will only be effective for a year? Has he discovered whatever 2025's version of spider tack is? What is going on?
  7. Bertz
    Mule is shoving again through 4. Hoping he doesn't run out of gas and fall apart like last time out.
  8. Bertz
    The Cubs have faced 7 lefty starters this month. Three of them are top 10 in the league in pitching WAR (Skubal, Gore, Luzardo). Matthew Liberatore is one of the others, and while far from a star is certainly good. Probably worth keeping the quality of competition in mind when you see these numbers about the team's June swoon against LHP.
  9. Bertz
    Pitching. Let's call it Michael King at something like 6/$150M a year and Ryan Helsley at something like 4/$80M.
  10. Bertz
    Do you have the memory of a goldfish? Shaw was on fire like 3 weeks ago
  11. Bertz
    Yeah an underrated story around this team right now is how much cheap talent is on the roster and already contributing. You figure between 9 position players, 5 SPs, and a closer there are 15 spots on an MLB roster that have potential to get pricey. Heading into next year the Cubs likely have 5-6 of those filled with guys making the league minimum, and it wouldn't be crazy to see it get up to 8. Add in guys like Nico and Steele too and there's a lot of surplus value flying around. I've mostly bowed out of the Tucker conversation because it inevitably revolves into a rabbit season/duck season sort of deal but the team is set up to take one or two big swings because of how little dead weight there is.
  12. Bertz
    You definitely have unreasonable standards for what a rookie player's season should look like.
  13. Bertz
    Honestly pretty similar deal with Alcantara. Chase and contact numbers are flat, batted ball quality is substantially better. His line just looks worse because of a few more K's (probably not permanent given the whiff and chase #s) and a less flukey BABIP.
  14. Bertz
    Kevin Alcantara has been hearing all the slander
  15. Bertz
    ^Triantos since coming off the IL
  16. Bertz
    Why hello there Jostin Florentino
  17. Bertz
    Cam Sisneros continues to rake. Given his age he's probably not a major prospect until he's doing it at AA, but it's definitely interesting.
  18. Bertz
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/workmga01.shtml
  19. Bertz
    We've gotta move away from lucky=bad. You can be good and have luck make your results look great. It's not complicated.
  20. Bertz
    I really love the idea of Edward Cabrera as one of two starters, with the other guy being someone you could more confidently have start a playoff game this year. I think it does a few things: - Cabrera is showing some signs of breaking out, but if that ends up not panning iut you don't suffer the massive opportunity cost of making him your only guy this deadline - With three years of control after this, he's a long term enough piece that you can feel comfortable paying the prospect price even if there's not a deep playoff run this year - By acquiring two starters, you're insulating yourself from another injury re-inserting Colin Rea into the rotation - Cabrera's current weakness is the times through the order penalty. In the playoffs he should be a potent weapon shortened up to 2-3 inning stints
  21. Bertz
    Yeah Lugo's basically in the same situation as Stroman a few years back: - The peripherals make it clear he's having a pretty good year rather than the stellar one his ERA would imply - Even at his best his durability/finesse profile doesn't really fit the archetype teams prefer in playoff starters - The player option acts as a poison pill to shred his value Even if you want to be bearish on guys like Alcantara or Brown, Lugo's value is so nominal I'd be shocked if they don't far outstrip him.
  22. Bertz
    The Royals are also horribly desperate for outfield help so the fit goes both ways.
  23. Bertz
    I've noticed Gallagher going every Saturday instead of every six days as well. I wonder if some of these guys that are pitching well and in the process ars piling up innings are getting a set day of the week to subtly conserve their innings.
  24. Bertz
    Honestly a relief. His last two outings have been horrific (7 BB and a HBP in 9 batters) after seemingly righting the ship for like a month prior. Hopefully we can blame this injury.
  25. Bertz
    So it's definitely PCA or Tucker, I don't think anyone else has even a decent argument. PCA has generated the most raw value, Tucker's close behind and has had oodles of clutch. I do think Carson Kelly deserves some love though. Him going Aaron Judge for a month helped this team excel during an extremely difficult part of the schedule. Even with him coming back to earth he's still been IMO one of the biggest stories for this team.
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