Bertz

I think ultimately we see both KB and Q dealt, which would put the team ~$27M under the tax. That's enough room to extend Javy (adds $8-9M), add 2-3 bench bats ($3-5M each), and leave a small reserve (~$5) for the trade deadline. But with so many moving parts, they don't want to close off any possibilities early. And if extending Javy really is part of Plan A, that may be why they don't even want to do something modest like a Shogo signing before they know they've got a preferred KB deal done.

I do find it interesting how much smoke there has been around a Javy extension even though everything else has been about how poor the Cubs are. I wonder if that's why they're refusing to do even tiny moves until KB is traded. They can probably get a Javy extension done while staying under the tax by trading Quintana and not KB, but that leaves essentially zero room for anything else. So they need to keep that lane open in case they don't ultimately like the offers for Kris.

Highly recommend this from Sharma

I still don't think Schwarber is likely to be dealt but the fact that a Corey Dickerson is getting 2/17 probably implies that his trade value is significantly higher than I've been thinking.

Yeah I think Kieboom and stuff is probably the best realistic option. That's the one where you are taking the least severe step back the next two years (hell, there's probably a ~30% chance Kieboom + $18M is better THIS year), and in this kind of deal you're generally better off taking one A+ piece than 3 B+ ones. I'd feel a lot better about the Braves if Pache was part of that menu. The bat has questions (though given his age none particularly concerning), but it sounds like he's a legit +15 defender in CF. He offers a comfortable floor that none of the Braves other options do, even if I like them all individually.

Swing and miss can ironically be a good thing for BABIP actually. You want someone who either swings and misses or hits the ball on a line. Like Javy basically. That being said the ceiling for true talent BABIP probably isn't much higher than .340 or .350, so Anderson's gonna have to improve in other ways (to your point by cleaning up his defense probably) to be more than an average regular.

Seems like the Nats are the team to root for if you want a great piece (Kieboom) with some filler, while the Braves are likely to offer 3 good pieces but no slam dunk guy.

This is where this whole deal with waiting for a KB trade before doing anything else is really going to hurt. At 2B there are so many guys at roughly the same level of quality that the team can wait until February to strike. But at CF? You've got Shogo, Pillar, and Maybin as the only even adequate options. Maybe they've got a trade conditionally worked out that nets a CF? Otherwise waiting is a dangerous game IMO.

He literally says "speculatively" in the tweet FFS

50/1 for the Pirates winning the division is ludicrously low IMO. I'm not sure the top and bottom of this division are separated by more than 10 games, and that's before a KB trade

Is Kipnis still available? How about Dozier? Someone? or nah There's still several 2B in that similar 2nd division starter tier still available: - Brock Holt - Jason Kipnis - Scooter Gennett - Asdrubal Cabrera - Brad Miller - Joe Panik And that's just the lefties, since it sounds like they want someone to compliment Nico. So while I'm not too worried about 2B specifically, I do think it's hard to not be worried about FA more broadly.

I don't know that I hate the contract in a vacuum, but Keuchel seems like a real bad fit considering how limited defensively that infield is

Theo has talked about how he was looking to do some of this stuff last winter but that he couldn't because everyone was coming off of fairly nightmarish 2nd halves. I wonder if the plan two years ago was to trade two of Almora/Ruseell/Happ/Contreras for whatever we needed last winter, stay under the tax for 2019 and have 2020 be the lone over the tax year. But after 2018 that became a laughably implausible plan, so here we are now. To TT's point though that still doesn't explain the Kimbrel signing though, so who horsefeathering knows.

I'm also interested in the fact that this brings the 40 man roster up to 39. I feel like that implies some sort of clarity as to what the upcoming trades are going to look like.

My assumption is that there are more costs than we give credit for in running the team, so their break even point is probably well south of $300M. That being said there are two big caveats there: 1. They definitely pocketed a ton of money from 2012-2015, and haven't turned around and dipped back into that money. They'll point to the renovations but that leads to... 2. A lot of their costs are building up equity. So it's not *really* a loss even of it's not straight up liquid profit So ultimately. I don't *really* care about where that break even point is.

I think primarily to your point it's money. Because of where their respective arb salaries are, a Javy extension likely looks something like 6/110, a KB one more like 8/240. Secondarily, more athletic guys have traditionally shown to age better. Aging curves have shifted wildly the last ~10 years though so admittedly I'm not sure how true that still is.

This is the quote about moving money. From an Eno Sarris article about what the public doesn't understand about working in a FO: Pretty similarly, this is what I expect as a rough outline for the rest of the offseason: - Bryant, Contreras, Q out, young pitching and at least one high upside near the majors position player in - Javy extended - ~$15M spread across 3-4 bench guys - Add an Alex Wood/Colin McHugh type There's variations obviously, but I think that's the rough shape. I think you're right that Castellanos is in if Schwarber gets traded, and like I said a few posts up I think Javy and Q are tied to each other as well.

That’s where I’m at, you at least can see how it works this year if you keep the core and move some margins around. Next year could be tough to really contend regardless if you keep the core or do trades this year with the pitching needs. Trading KB punts this year, effectively, and then leaves next year as a pretty big roll of the dice that one (or more) of these young pitching prospect is actually good and turns out and you’re able to add Mookie to be able to contend. I’m going to let them fill that last slot of the rotation before I sound all the alarms on 2021. Hopefully they find someone that can project out past this year to join Yu and Kyle. From there, you’re replacing Lester and Q. I think people seeing a 2020 contender out of the Cubs aren’t expecting much from Lester anyways, so don’t think it would change much to keep that slot as status quo. Q is a weird case, I’ve been a big defender around here, but I think there’s also a fairly large contingent that want to trade him because they think he’s overpriced at $12m. I know the FA market next year is thin. But you’re looking at $35-40m in salary coming off the books between Lester, Q, and Chatwood. Going to be hard to justify banking that money, but who knows, they’ve proved me wrong before. Weirdly I think Q's fate is tied to Javy. If the team is in line with Javy on an extension, they basically have to trade Q to make the money work (assuming they're keeping to the $208 "cap"). If not, it's more of a matter of being opportunistic. Lester probably depends more on his perfromance than outside factors IMO. He only counts $15M against the "cap" next year. And with at least one rotation spot to fill I think they keep him if he still projects well.

Just discovered this old one: Where The Pit Would Go If There Was a Pit

I'm sure the team looked at Sogard, he's exactly in the mold of what they're looking at for 2B. But there's still half a dozen comparable 2B options out there (and that's just left handed hitters). 2B is not going to be resolved until the trades are figured out, and maybe not even until arb numbers are finalized. Honestly Shogo is the only FA I think has a chance to sign this month, and that's because there aren't other compsrable CFers out there.

This is a great type of guy to have stashed away at Iowa as like your #16 position player. But he is dangerously close to actually meriting a spot on the bench, which goes to show how deeply horsefeathers the team's current depth is.

Yeah this is the thing that needs to be said over and over again regardless of which side of this discussion you're on. Given the implied constraints on payroll, I personally view trading KB as a best path forward. But these constraints are completley artificial and this entire discussion is premised on a false choice put forth by the team's ghoulish owners.