Bertz

Yeah, the Cubs farm isn't bereft of talent but most of it is very young. They're also lacking a star to hang your hat on. That said they might honestly have the best collection of teenagers in the league. That's not going to help the team in the short term, but is a good recipe for shooting up the rankings in a single season. There's also the crew that would have been at Myrtle Beach last year (Davis, Roederer, etc.). Have one or two of those guys kill it in AA this year, and suddenly you do have that Top 25 overall guy to hang your hat on.

The Cubs' statement mentioned that both of them are gone already. I'm guessing not Theo or Scott Harris, as they're high enough profile they would have been named. But whoever it was had to be sufficiently high enough that you'd come to with a problem with one of Theo's lieutenants. Didn't the Cubs' old PR guy have some contentious relationships with reporters around the time of the Russell stuff? Based on the article it sounds like she is a Japanese reporter who was following the team. I wonder if she spoke with the team’s interpreter. Did we have a Japanese interpreter with the team in 2016? Munenori Kawasaki was briefly on the team (which surprised me, I though he was just a ST guy), so that makes sense. Koji Uehara also signed over the 2016-2017 winter, so maybe his guy?

Looks like the Phillies, if they nab Realmuto, are going to push payroll even higher, nearing $200M. I'd imagine that doesn't affect us unless you're hoping for JBJ, CF is the obvious spot for them to upgrade and the Cubs could use one as well.

The Cubs should fire whoever talked to her from the team. The Cubs' statement mentioned that both of them are gone already. I'm guessing not Theo or Scott Harris, as they're high enough profile they would have been named. But whoever it was had to be sufficiently high enough that you'd come to with a problem with one of Theo's lieutenants. Didn't the Cubs' old PR guy have some contentious relationships with reporters around the time of the Russell stuff?

Not great!

Good for Jon. I'm pretty convinced he's cooked, so I'm happy to see him get paid but also glad that it's happening somewhere else.

Musgrove was one of only 3 players on the Pirates to project north of 2 WAR. Also kind of have to wonder if Dinelson Lamer is still hurt.

I tend to think TINSTAAP applies to catchers as well, but hot damn I hadn't seen it written out like this before.

It didn't end up mattering, but it is wild that in 2021 ball spotting is so arbitrary. I feel like that and clock starting/stopping could really use a technology facelift.

By Football Outsiders dYAR (DVOA translated into yards essentially), Wentz was further below replacement level than Russell Wilson was above it this season. HELL. NO.

So it seems like this is how the rest of the offseason is destined to play out? - Realmuto back to the Phillies - Springer to the Mets or Jays - JBJ to whoever loses out on Springer - Bauer to the Angels - Astros, Twins, Nats, Giants, Red Sox, and Braves each add one of the mid level bats (Semien, Brantley, Ozuna, etc.) - A bunch of 2nd tier/bounce back type bats and SPs sign one year deals hoping to cash in next winter For the Cubs specifically, I expect KB or Willson to go but probably not both. I think they probably add one of those mid-level bats, as well as a SP you don't have to squint too hard to feel good about. Let's say Didi Gregorius and Garret Richards just for an example. And then from there, 3-4 additions in the Kipnis/Jeffress mold. It won't be a good team, but might be enough for this division.

Guessing that's why they finalized Lemahieu's deal. Bet Kluber brings the Yankees pretty close to but still under the luxury tax.

Just waiting on Happ

I'm gonna guess it's not great news that we're 3 hours past the arb deadline and have not heard anything about any Cubs players

Wow, Rosenthal with a rare Bob Nightengale blunder

They were ~$30M under the tax before this, so probably takes them out on George Springer

That's awesome, he's really well equipped for that role. Frankly he helped push a lot of the ideas that have led to the three true outcomes nature of the sport right now. Very few people are so well equipped to think through ALL of the implications of any proposed fixes.

So I was thinking about this trade some more, and given that the prospects are all *so* far away, what does the trade look like if we consider the guys we got back more like draft picks than prospects? I found a FG article from about two years ago talking about how to value draft picks: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/ Additionally, in Eric Longenhagen's write-up of the trade, he equates a few of the IFA guys to what they'd be as draft picks: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-the-cubs-return-for-yu-darvish/ - Preciado is the jewel of the trade, an immediate top 100 guy. Typically only the top ~10 picks in a draft immediately make the top 100. So let's value Reggie as if he's the #10 pick in the draft. Via the above article, that's $23.3M in surplus value - Longenhagen explicitly said that Yeisson Santana would go in the back of the 1st round in the draft. To be conservative, let's say he would have been pick #30. That's another $10.1M - Based on where draft picks fall off from 45s to 40s, Ismael Mena would be a top half of the second round guy. Again to be conservative, let's call him pick #45. $6.7M - Owen Caissie is an easy one. He was the 45th pick in the most recent draft, though his bonus was commensurate with #59. We'll go with the latter, though the difference isn't huge at this point. That's $4.8M Add it all up, and you get $44.9M in surplus value. Plus any value you ascribe to Davies. That's...a lot. Longenhagen is probably higher on the three Latin kids than I've seen anyone else, BUT he's also the only national guy to see them in person since March. He also seems to be lower than consensus on Caissie, so it's not all roses. You start to see why the Cubs made this specific trade. You're probably not getting $45M in prospects and Zach Davies if those prospects have already hit AA. If the options are maximizing value or proximity, this is probably a good version of leaning hard towards the former. Still though, I think this does/should push Jed more towards proximity in a subsequent Willson trade. We're literally at a point where there's not enough places to play all our fun teenage shortstops. Let's grab a few guys who make Iowa and Tenn less sad on the position player side.

There's probably a real and valid argument to drafting a quarterback being a crapshoot. So if you think the right processes are in place, and we simply rolled snake eyes with Trubisky, keeping Nagy and Pace around is the right call. But I am not at all convinced that the right processes are in place and we simply rolled snake eyes with Trubisky. Particularly in the last twelve months, there's been a lot of horsefeathers.

I really hope we end up with one of him, Paxton, or Richards.

They were connected to Bryant over the summer...