Bertz

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30568689/what-jeff-passan-hearing-new-homes-george-springer-nolan-arenado Passan with a list of teams you should probably expect some spending from this offseason

ZiPS *hates* the pitching staff. My god. Even Yu and Kyle it likes but has pretty modest innings totals for. On the offensive side, no one projects as a star anymore. Rizzo and Baez each project at 3.3 WAR to lead the team.

Miguel Amaya: Still raking I feel like I can talk myself into "actually this season wasn't that bad for him developmentally.". Amaya was up in ML spring training basically the entire time in March. Then he was at the alternate site from day 1, which I think only he, Davis, and Morel can say among notable bats? While the alternate site didn't have "real" games, he got plenty of at bats and got to work with pitchers who were primarily AAA caliber. Now, he's in winter league, which again is typically AA-AAA caliber. You'd probably have preferred he simply get 500 ABs in the Southern League, but probably not by *that* much?

Yeah, I think best guess on payroll is that we're near PTR's cap already. Most teams this offseason who we have a decent grasp on their payroll situation are cutting 10-20% off of last year's pre-pandemic mark. The Cubs, if you count Lester's buyout as part of 2021 payroll, are at 20% right now ($215 vs $170). And that seems to track with what the local guys are saying. They're making it seem like, without a trade, there's enough room for a 2020 style offseason. A few Kipnis types at a few million a pop, and a bunch of Tepera/Winkler style split contracts. So I'm personally assuming there's ~$10 million to play with, plus any additional money saved in trade. Maybe Jed's playing possum. Or maybe the positive vaccine news has made PTR revise payroll upward. Unlikely, but we'll likely find out pretty quickly after the new year. Most of the notable Japanese and Korean guys were posted the first week of December. So their journeys have to find a resolution one way or another the first week of January.

The Twins also seem like a logical destination for Darvish. They finished second for him a few years back, and they could really use someone to push Berrios into the #2 role he's more suited for.

I don't expect a serious pursuit of Semien. It's likely a "if his price falls below X" or a "if someone blows us away for a Javy trade" due diligence sort of thing. That said, this is the second mid-tier FA the team has been connected to this week. You have to imagine this signals that there is some clarity on payroll. And given the timing, I imagine it's at least somewhat positive in light of the vaccine rollout. I still expect them to trade salary, but reinvesting most/all of what they cut is looking less like wishful thinking.

Big time spin rate guy

Thinking more on Darvish, he might be the one opportunity to get a singularly "Wow" kind of piece in return. Because of salary, I think there are reasonable arguments for each of Happ, Hendricks, and Contreras to have as much or more value than Darvish. But when giving up prospects teams would always rather give up two 5s than one 10. I wonder if because he's the only true superstar of the quartet, Yu is the only one who can command a Jo Adell for example.

That's the key. "Here and there" is prudent, Pace does it at every opportunity. But not really? Here's some context as far as how I see draft/FA management. Both when he traded up for Trubisky and Floyd he traded down in the same draft to recoup picks. In the Mack trade, while he gave up 2 firsts he got back a couple picks (including a 2nd) so the net pick loss was only net 1 I think. His FA from 2015-2019 mostly considering of targeting "ascending"/younger players rather than "paying for past performance" and generally has meant he's spread dough around. 2020 was a big change in that regards. In managing the FA process he got them back into the comp pick game in about 5 years which is about as realistically as fast as you could have hoped he would considering the draft classes he inherited. These are all things that give me some reason to believe he has a decent high level draft and FA value strategy, despite areas I can highlight that go against it. He tends on the aggressive side with particular targets obviously, but I don't know if I see the Hendry comparison. Off the top of my head, or already brought up in this convo: Trading up for Trubisky Trading up for Floyd Trading up for Montgomery Trading for Foles instead of just signing Dalton These were all places where he basically just lit mid-round picks on fire to get the specific guy he wanted, instead of possibly having to settle for someone comparable (or with Trubisky, probably still his guy). You can make those moves occasionally, but it's essentially an annual tradition for Pace. In FA he's been less reckless, though the Jimmy Graham deal was laughed at league wide and doesn't really look any better in hindsight. I also remember Bill Barnwell railing against the Kyle Fuller deal, though I am not/was not enough of a capologist to understand the details of his complaint. It really is reminiscent of Hendry. You have some downright wonderful moves (Akiem Hicks!) interspersed with numerous unforced errors. Good teams scout well and play the percentages in case they're wrong. Ryan Pace scouts well and makes moves that only pay off if he scouted correctly. And I know I brought up Mack bit I'm not really going to fault Pace for that. Mack was a legit superstar and they were at the right place on the win curve and on Trubisky's rookie contract. It's not the efficiency Olympics, even if that was kind of a woof move in terms of efficiency. But in an ideal world, you don't make the other moves so that you can better afford the Mack deal. To keep the Hendry comparison going, Mack was Pace's Soriano contract. Overpaying Soriano is fine, overpaying Soriano while you're already overpaying Jacque Jones and Jason Marquis is not fine.

QBs are worth trading up for. Edge guys probably are worth it too. You just have to hit. There definitely isn't a overall value issue there, IMO. RB, not so much, but at that point we're looking at more an exception than rule issue and he's moved up and down the middle rounds, occassionally with great success! ETA as to Mack specifically, while I think the goal obviously is to spend efficiently in a capped league, I do kind of feel like you can get away with a less than efficient purchase here and there if it adds great win value. I'd rather use every last cap dollar available and get 12 wins than spend 80% of the cap efficiently and get 10 wins (obviously it's not so simplistic, but that would be the gist of my philosophy. So you're allowed like one Mack, as long as the big picture "value" decisions make sense, IMO) That's the key. "Here and there" is prudent, Pace does it at every opportunity.

To me Pace is Jim Hendry. He's a good, maybe even great, scout. But he just doesn't understand value. You can't trade up for Trubisky, Floyd, and Montgomery like he did, you just can't. You can't give up two firsts for Mack, AND THEN make him the highest paid defensive player ever. He's that guy in your fantasy league who takes all his sleepers like 5 rounds too early. Yeah congrats you were right on DK Metcalf, but since you took him in round 4 you pissed away any surplus value your strong scouting eye should have bought you.

I assume this doesn't take them out of other catchers, they've explicitly said they're bringing in two, and Zunino should clearly be a backup.

I like Grossman a lot, I think he brings to the table a lot of what our offense lacks. He's also probably average in CF? My only worry with him is if his offensive efficiency would suffer some in an everyday role. I think if it's an either/or, you're basically debating between an elite defense/average offense and a good defense/good offense. Net production is likely about the same, so it's about cost and what shape you'd rather have it come in. All of the speculation about Contreras to the Rays, how about Caratini to the Rays for Margot? Saves them a few bucks while improving their catching and gets the Cubs a young CF. Sign Grossman for depth in the OF and Happ can play LF, 3B, or 2B as needed depending on future transactions (i.e. Bryant). I like Margot for Caratini a lot if Willson doesn't get moved. Though I don't see it making sense to not move Willson, unless maybe you move Darvish or Hendricks. Which I guess brings us to: I see the merits of moving Darvish. Always better to move pitching sooner rather than later, and Darvish is incredibly valuable right now. That said, like Brett alludes to at the end there, if you're moving Darvish you ought to just mostly blow it all up.

I like Grossman a lot, I think he brings to the table a lot of what our offense lacks. He's also probably average in CF? My only worry with him is if his offensive efficiency would suffer some in an everyday role. I think if it's an either/or, you're basically debating between an elite defense/average offense and a good defense/good offense. Net production is likely about the same, so it's about cost and what shape you'd rather have it come in.

Very nice to see. I generally like the idea of building the defense into an elite unit, since I don't think we're going to invest enough to actually fix the the offense. That said, even with the chilly offseason I think he's been projected to get 3 years, and there are enough red flags in his offensive profile that I'd be hesitant. I like Kiermaier as an alternative. You lose some durability and certainly gain some offensive downside, but they mean out to basically the same player and Keirmaier is only on a 2 year deal (that the Rays would give up player value to get out of).

I like Riley Thompson getting some Top 10 love

Asked and received

I actually kind of hope Porter gets the Mets' job. I don't want the new GM to go to be a Theo/Jed retread. Of the names we've heard connected to the job, give me Billy Owens.

Wow

If you have to trade Willson, time to target the Phillies for Abel or Howard. Yeah, Howard especially would be a perfect centerpiece for a Willson deal. Howard plus Luis Garcia maybe?

I'm inferring that he's a big time spin guy. If his command is fine, and his velocity is fine, that's gotta be what got him his K Rate and his interest here.