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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
  2. Bertz
    Jake isn't great anymore, but unlike Lester there are some reasons to think he might still be pretty solid with some tweaks.
  3. Bertz
  4. Bertz
    It's interesting that the NRI list is mostly just depth dudes rather than prospects. I expected to see Brennan Davis et al, since the minor league season for guys below AAA is pushed back a month. I wonder if teams have been told not to do that, or if they just don't want guys like Davis down in AZ for 2.5 months prior to starting their seasons.
  5. Bertz
    Kiley had us at 22nd, and basically said that we're on the upswing but lack the top 100 types that tend to drive those rankings.
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  7. Bertz
    Justin Turner and 1 of Odorizzi, Walker or Jake would be the only thing where I could see that we could come away with as good or better of a team with moving Bryant then using the money to add stuff. That's true, though I'd wonder why the Mets wouldn't just nab Turner. I've gotta think if the Mets go for KB it's a sign Turner's heading back to LA. It's funny, I just looked at Keith Law's assessment of the Mets' farm: Jed's certainly has a type!
  8. Bertz
    I've generally been among the more pro "trade KB" people around these parts going back to last year, but I'd horsefeathering hate doing it right now. The timing is awful, since there's nothing really left to reinvest that money in. What are you going to spend that $20M on? Travis Shaw and James Paxton? At this point hold on til the deadline and hope for a strong first half.
  9. Bertz
    I'm hoping that from here we follow with a LH infielder to upgrade over Vargas.
  10. Bertz
    Marisnick has a phenomenal glove and is ~average at the plate against lefties. So while Marisnick is a little better, in terms of roster fit this is a pretty much 1 for 1 replacement with Almora. Just trade a bunch of weak grounders for strikeouts.
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  12. Bertz
  13. Bertz
    Obviously we're all biased here, but this feels more right to me. I think on talent alone this is a top 10 system. That said, a big part of a farm's value rests on proximity, and the Cubs are rightly going to get marked down for that pretty heavily. - Iowa is a horsefeathering graveyard to open the year. Abbott, Miller, and Steele are probably the only top 30 guys who will open there? - Tenn will be better, but TBD on how much? Davis, Amaya, and Marquez will open there for sure. But is it just going to be those three and a bunch of (admittedly fun) relievers? Or will we also get some combo of Strumpf/Morel/Weber to help lengthen that lineup? Beyond that, both A Ball squads are going to be hella fun, but they are still just A Ball.
  14. Bertz
    Keith Law ranked the Cubs' system 26th. Given the circumstances though, I'm not too concerned. He had the Cubs in a similar spot last year, and since then they've graduated Hoerner, had a fairly solid draft (which shouldn't move them up or down too much), and added a metric assload of IFA talent (both directly and through the Darvish trade). Keith doesn't have the best insight into IFA even in the best of times, so I'm not surprised he doesn't give that the weight I might think it deserves. I'm most interested to see Eric Longenhagen's eventual rankings. He does his lists a little later than everyone else, and lives down in AZ. So he's likely to actually have recent firsthand looks at guys.
  15. Bertz
    More walks (and probably K's) in the very short term, but in the longer term less area for hitters to cover means more contact. You basically want both changes because they should work in concert to better incenivize balls in play.
  16. Bertz
    Those things don't happen in a vacuum, Home runs and strike outs are correlated even if it isn't a perfectly linear relationship. yes, but softening the ball won't do anything to reduce strike outs unless you believe hitters will adjust to make more contact. Don't see that happening quickly so this change will likely result in the same strikeouts but fewer home runs. assuming they turn into outs, which may not be the case, this will make the game even more boring. for me, walks and strike outs are boring. home runs are good, although triples are more exciting. The consensus for how to "fix" the issues with lack of action is starting to coalesce around "deader ball, smaller zone." Looks like deader (and more consistent) ball is coming now, and I imagine smaller zone would come next year? I wouldn't be surprised if a new CBA is considered the more appropriate occasion to adjust the rulebook zone.
  17. Bertz
  18. Bertz
    Wentz's ranks in DVOA the last 4 years: 6th, 13th, 20th, 34th Trubisky's: 29th (Rookie year), 19th, 26th, 24th Wentz is probably better than Trubisky, but I think the point is it's way too close for this to be the guy you hitch your wagon to. The only real arguments for Wentz being actually good and not just good by Bears' standards essentially boil down to making it 2017 again through either science or magic.
  19. Bertz
  20. Bertz
    He is THE WORST, but it is pretty cool how much he moves the salary ball forward for other guys by having his contract in this structure.
  21. Bertz
    Carson Wentz has $59M guaranteed left on his deal and was the worst full time QB in the NFL last year. I don't understand why it isn't incumbent on them to pay us for the favor of taking him. It's not quite that bad for a team that trades for him. It's basically a 2 year, 47 million dollar deal with two team options after that. As for compensation, it's mostly a competition thing. If multiple teams think they can fix him and have his value go way higher, then that's going to raise his trade value significantly. And the Eagles don't have that much incentive to trade him this year without getting something. Good call on it being 2/47 for the acquiring team. I'm not great at cap stuff. That said I think that still only improves Wentz's contract situation from horrendous to merely pretty bad. Foles and a day 3 pick is probably about as rich as I'd have a taste for.
  22. Bertz
    It also sounds like someone in the Shark/Jake mold is fait accompli, which would bring us up to 42. Teams can slow play 40 man moves (Yankees still haven't made Lemahieu official I believe), but I wonder if the other shoe that needs to drop is a trade or if it's just dumping a couple James Norwood types.
  23. Bertz
    Carson Wentz has $59M guaranteed left on his deal and was the worst full time QB in the NFL last year. I don't understand why it isn't incumbent on them to pay us for the favor of taking him.
  24. Bertz
    This x1000
  25. Bertz
    The ONLY scenario where I want Wentz is if the Eagles are paying us draft picks to take his salary, like the Goff/Stafford trade.
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