Bertz

I'm inferring that he's a big time spin guy. If his command is fine, and his velocity is fine, that's gotta be what got him his K Rate and his interest here.

Bauer to the Angels, Springer to the Mets, Realmuto back to the Phillies?

It also sounds like McCann is joining whichever they go with. I wonder if this is going to be the opposite of the last few offseasons, where the top guys sign essentially first and we go down the list from there.

The names in here are generally pretty strong. Chris Myers isn't dismissed, but doesn't get a lot of length. Boog Sciambi is called a long shot, sounds like he's the caliber of guy they're aiming for but doesn't sound likely to leave his gig at ESPN. Wayne Randazzo tends to sound the most likely, though none of the names were really identified as a full on favorite.

This is probably pretty bad news for the players. The White Sox were one of the few teams that looked likely to spend, and now they've filled their two biggest holes for $15M. I guess I could see them getting another OF and pushing Eloy to DH, or getting another SP so that Kopech doesn't have a spot until there's an injury?

He's been pretty great since basically the moment he left the Cardinals. I'd guess he's legit a top ~20 SP.

I think the Contreras trade is much too light and the Bryant trade is much too heavy. IMO this is a good way to think about prospect valuation: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/ FG's use of future value numbers (e.g. a 45 or a 55) to rate prospects is extremely clunky. But, it's in these situations where it's really helpful, and you see why they do it. In practical terms, this is what FG's values correspond to 60 or higher - An elite prospect, usually top 10-15 overall 55 or higher - A top 50 caliber prospect 50 - A top 100 caliber prospect 45 - A team top 10 caliber prospect 40 - A team top 30 caliber prospect 35 - A prospect, but super far away or very low ceiling So with this you can start to build a trade. Bryant's due ~$20M this season, so he's got maybe $5-10M in value? So you'd expect maybe a 45 and 40? Or to use our system as an example, someone else's Cole Roederer and Riley Thompson. Your trade without Robles is probably about right, maybe a smidge light. Contreras is a little harder to gauge, and probably depends on how real you think his framing gains this year are. If you think they're real, he's got something like $50M in value. So a hitter on the border of a 50/55, plus two or three more 45s. To use our system again as an example again: think like Brennen Davis, Adbert Alzolay and Cole Roederer.

IMO they won't, they just don't want teams sitting on their hands for another 6 weeks while they wait to figure it out. The MLBPA is going to end up giving the league expanded playoffs for this year in exchange for the DH and a few other things.

There's also talk the Reds are heavily shopping Sonny Gray. 85 wins might honestly win the Central this year.

That run on 4th and 1 was soooooo dumb. If I cared about this game I'd actively be shooting my forehead with heroin right now

I wonder about Bryant for Kevin Keirmaier and prospects: - Keirmaier makes enough that moving his salary makes adding Bryant's more realistic for the Rays - His contract is likely a bit underwater, which should also improve the prospect return beyond a straight Bryant dral - The Rays are absolutely flush with center fielders, so they can afford to part with Keirmaier from a competitive standpoint - He wouldn't help the Cubs offensively, but he'd take the defense from good to maybe the best in the league For me, I think it depends on payroll. Like did we *need* to cut Schwarber to get under PTR's line? Or did Jed just decide his money could be better spent elsewhere? Because with CF addressed, I think you can do the rest of a pretty solid offseason if the Schwarber money is available to be reinvested. Something like this: - Bryant for Keirmaier - Contreras for prospects - Sign Ha Seoung Kim - Sign Robbie Grossman - Trade for Jon Gray - Fill out bench/bullpen with a few Kipnis/Jeffress types That IMO is a successful offseason (under the circumstances), and that's with a payroll roughly flat from where it was heading into the non-tender deadline.

People are fickle, and want change but they don't want to give up value. There are four people on this roster with real value: Hendricks, Yu, Willson, and Happ. (I'd guess in that order, but not positive). If you want to fundamentally improve the outlook for 2022+ while taking the smallest bite out of our chances in 2021, Willson is the obvious name to go. It's like not even close.

Yeah this is my takeaway from the last six years with our core. For whatever reason, I'm going to guess that development further down the ladder is so much better now, you shouldn't really project improvement from position players after their first year or two in the league. Those first 1000ish plate appearances at such an insane level of competition teach guys a lot. But afterwards, in aggregate, guys lose athleticism about as fast as they gain skill, and they just plateau until somewhere in the 28-30 neighborhood, when father time starts working faster. That doesn't bode well for the White Sox going from good to great unless it happens this year. Like if Luis Robert doesn't take a big jump this offseason, it's much less likely to ever happen. What becomes more likely is that he improves his plate discipline at about the same rate he loses prowess in CF, and just settles in at 3ish WAR. That's not a bad thing, but it makes building some 105 win juggernaut pretty unlikely.

The only person who I know definitely wouldn't be a big step down is Boog Sciambi. I'm sure there are folks I don't know who would be good, too, but Sciambi is the guy Marquee should be after here IMO. Yeah Boog comes to mind immediately as the guy I want. He and JD would probably be a blast together.

This horsefeathering sucks. Though I think he's generally the "your favorite sports writer's favorite sports writer" type so he'll have a job at the Ringer or something by the end of the year.

That would significantly soften the blow if they are legitimately going to search for and hire a worthy replacement. I'll believe it when I see it though. I know we should expect the worst when it comes to this offseason, but this pretty clearly means Myers isn't getting the job. He's currently already under contract, so if the network is saying they're looking for an outside hire he's not in the running.

I think if we also see him pick up some national games, I'll legitimately believe he left for the right reasons. As the Cubs announcer, Len took almost no days off. If he's trading 155 Cubs tv games for ~100 White Sox radio games, ~25 White Sox TV games, and ~10 National Broadcasts, that's a real signal to me that he was bored or burnt out or something like that.

The more I sit on this the more the Chris Myers part bugs me. Like if Len wanted to leave because he's bored, hates Sinclair, wants a job that lets him do more national games, or whatever, I'm okay with that. He put in 15 great years here, and I don't hate having him leave while he's still on top. Chris Myers though is just so blah as a replacement. He, along with Kenny Albert, are the quintessential B Team PBP guys in my head. I really hope that he's just a placeholder, and that they're going to go get someone better, someone with an actual personality, ASAP. Like maybe Boog Sciambi would like to be "the guy" here rather than the #2 guy at ESPN? Or even better, go get the someone younger like Len was when they got him.