Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Braxton Garrett+ Edward Cabrera would be pretty much best case scenario for me. I don't think Max Meyer would be on the table. Playing around with the baseball trade simulator, some ideas of what we could expect: Garrett + Cabrera plus some filler Trevor Rogers + Jesus Sanchez plus some filler Max Meyer or JJ Bleday pretty much straight up Monte Harrison + Lewin Diaz + Jon Berti And these are all based on current projections. It's not entirely unreasonable to bump Willson up ~5 runs a year for defense. I think qualitatively people generally think his framing is "fixed." If you're pricing him as if he's not a negative on defense, stuff like Meyer + Harrison or Bleday + Rogers probably isn't unreasonable. Also, anecdotally, new GMs are typically more apt to view their prospects as the market does rather than through rose colored glasses, so working with Kim Ng *should* be easier. I'm really talking myself into the Marlins as a trade partner.
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We've seen more and more teams add guys "a year early," so this wouldn't be that crazy. I also *really* want Trevor Rogers. Have Hottovy teach him the spike curve he's been teaching everyone and he's gonna absolutely shove.
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I think this is going to be hard to use moving forward though. First, the commissioner will ax it if he thinks that's the sole reason for the structure. Second, it's rare you know that you're going to be well under the tax today while planning to be above it 3-4 years from now.
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I'm not 100%, but I think this means he'll cost $0 against the luxury tax in year 4. Though the luxury tax mattering for the White Sox is pretty unlikely.
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There's been talk that the Jays are having trouble getting guys to take their money because of how messy the early part of this season might be for international travel. With how limited money is this offseason they're clearly going to be able to get some guys, but it may be if they strike out on all the FA stars they plan to do a couple mid level guys plus Bryant.
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Totally expected to find Hendricks in this article, but did not expect to see Alec Mills
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I do generally expect the team to reinvest Darvish's salary. For any negatives you can lay at Jed and Theo's feet, it's been rare that they've flatly lied to us. So when Jed says this deal wasn't about money, while I don't think that's 100% true, I do think that means they didn't *need* to make this deal just for money. I'd guess that PTR's payroll allowance is at least nominally higher than the ~$170M payroll was at prior to the trade. That leaves enough room for a mid level guy (an outfielder probably), plus a few flyers for the bench and rotation. I think that's why we're seeing smoke about a KB trade being imminent. If you wanted to maximize return, now's not really the right time. You wait until later in the offseason when Ozuna and Springer are off the board, or maybe even til the deadline. But if you move KB now? You have time/funds to do 3 mid level guys in FA rather than just one. An outfielder, and infielder, and a SP? That or you're tearing it down to the studs.
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Yeah, that sounds to me like he heard a Cubs deal is going down but got no details yet still wants some level of credit.
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Oh great! I don't typically trust randos, but randos rarely commit to such specific timelines for things unprompted. I'd guess, given the rumors the past week or so, he's expecting Willson or KB to go somewhere?
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Guessing it's this
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Cubs Twitter is acting as if we should take this seriously :dontknow:
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Woah I kind of did a "Sure Jan" yesterday because it was Nightengale, but Puma's legit connected on the Mets. It sounds like the Mets are going to stay under the tax, at least for this year. They're currently ~$35M under, so maybe they prefer Bryant + another few bench/pen guys + wiggle room at the deadline to just Springer? It's not unreasonable.
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The splits question is an interesting one. It doesn't tie into this directly, but I thought this article from a few months back was interesting: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-southpaw-advantage/ By this same logic you'd *think* that guys with weird release points would do better than their raw stuff would indicate against opposite handed hitters. But in practice most of the funky guys I could come up with off the top of my head, e.g. Chad Bradford, were extremely vulnerable to opposite handed hitters. Is that a testament to how terrible their raw stuff is? Maybe it depends on arsenal? I think, anecdotally, the funkiest guys are sinker/slider types. Those pitches have the largest platoon splits. But if you have a guy whose game is tunneling the high fastball with the curveball, maybe a lower release point doesn't make them any more vulnerable to opposite handed hitters? So good news for Patterson, bad news for Miller?
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McHugh would be the perfect incentive laden MiLB deal type
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Lindor & Carrasco to the Mets for Giménez, Rosario & 2 Prospects
Bertz replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
This is a very Cleveland trade. Gimenez as the headliner is kindaweak, but it still nets out pretty wellfrom a dollars/WAR standpoint. Cleveland are obsessed with the "portfolio approach." -
Lindor & Carrasco to the Mets for Giménez, Rosario & 2 Prospects
Bertz replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Not Bauer clearly -
Lindor & Carrasco to the Mets for Giménez, Rosario & 2 Prospects
Bertz replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Curious if this is going to be in addition to or in lieu of one of Springer/Bauer -
Here's some data to back up Bryan's interest in these low approach angle guys. And coincidentally, looks like Jack Patterson's got some of this going on as well Clearly appears to be a thing the Cubs are in on
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So out of curiosity, I plugged the three names Rosenthal specifically mentioned into this tool: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ If you're not familiar, It's pretty cool. It uses established research to convert prospect rankings into dollar values, and for MLBer does the old Dave Cameron dollars/WAR move. It's certainly got problems, any sort of tool that completely strips context out of the equation will, but I like it a lot as a quick and dirty way to sense check these sorts of hypothetical deals. Anyways, when you plug the three names Rosenthal mentioned into the tool, you get a value that matches what Contreras is worth. The tool gives Willson $28.3M in surplus value, while the prospects are at $30.4M. Considering how many assumptions go into something like this, that difference is negligible. Considering this is Rosenthal and how connected he is, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the current proposal on the table from one of the sides.
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Bauer and Contreras would probably butt the Angels right up against the luxury tax, which sounds like is their line.
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So I assume we have to hear something about Sugano by lunch time at the latest? Otherwise he's likely going back to Japan?
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That is extremely annoying I really hope this is because we're aiming higher for our starting OF spot and Grossman wanted a full-time gig. But my confidence in that being the case is...not high. Same. And I fear aiming higher is JBJ and I am not a big fan of his or his fit on this team. I’d rather have Grossman over him to begin with all factors included. JBJ's a good news/bad news thing. Like if the rumor is true we can play in the 8 figure salary end of the pool. That's exciting! But I think like you if that's the case I have other guys I'd rather target.
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That is extremely annoying I really hope this is because we're aiming higher for our starting OF spot and Grossman wanted a full-time gig. But my confidence in that being the case is...not high.