Bertz

Looks like he only has four years of service time too, so we should have him under control for 2022 as well. 3 MiLB options too.

Bryan Smith at Bleacher Nation wrote him up about a week ago https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/01/26/the-cubs-sales-pitch-to-buy-low-starting-pitcher-candidates-williams-porcello-rodon-foltynewicz-archer/ Basically, he seems the most obviously pitch lab-able of the reclamation guys. The Cubs have also been loading up on low approach angle guys, so they clearly believe it's a thing.

Boo, he was my favorite of the reclamation arms

I like seeing Weber and Morel get revised up to Tenn after their fairly glowing reviews in interviews from the past few weeks. That actually makes the Tennessee pretty horsefeathering exciting, which I don't think it has been since Javy and co. were there.

The local guys are now saying the Cubs are going to add two more starters. And over the last week we've seen them connected to Folty/Archer/Rodon as well as Shark and Jake. I'm guessing the plan is one of each "type"? Given that Alzolay and Mills have been talked up as shoe-ins for the rotation, that would seem to imply we're going with a 6 man? For example: Hendricks Jake Davies Rodon Mills Alzolay I kind of wonder if the rest of the offseason is going to be two starters and Wong coming in, with Willson heading out.

Feels like this makes those opt outs even longer shots. So essentially 5 mediocre prospects for Arenado at 8/160ish.

https://www.mlb.com/news/randy-arozarena-trade-to-rays-from-cardinals

This is very good news. If Arenado's still a superstar he won't be there the full term.

Down with this plan but isn’t Folty addicted to meth? Yeah I think he's by a good margin my least favorite name they've been tied to.

Looking at spray charts from the last 2 seasons, it looks like Joc is even worse Yeah, slash line wise they're going to be nearly identical. Joc strikes out less, but pops up a lot more. Joc might even be more of an extreme pull hitter. He's a better defender, but also more susceptible to LHP. I'm guessing Joc does some thing(s) that Schwarber doesn't. For instance it looks like Joc is better against the high fastball https://www.fangraphs.com/players/joc-pederson/11899/heat-maps?position=OF&ss=2019-03-28&se=2019-09-29&type=5&hand=all&count=all&blur=0&grid=5&view=pit&pitch=FA&season=all&data=pi https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-schwarber/16478/heat-maps?position=OF&ss=2019-03-28&se=2019-09-29&hand=all&count=all&pitch=FA&season=all&view=bat&data=&grid=5&blur=0&type=5 I also wouldn't be surprised if there was other stuff that's not easy to verify publicly, like that Joc's better against velocity.

Personally, this reads to me as a Kaplan "cover my ass" move. Or he's very liberally playing with the word "recently." The Cubs clearly aren't spending a ton, and given that reality they were likely always going to wait until A) after the Arb deadline and B) for some of the top tier of FA to sign so they could start seriously engaging with the middle tier. It makes sense but I feel like if this was in any sort of consideration as a plan why would they let guys like Lester, Chatwood, Q go for basically nothing? Lester is not that great anymore but when you are looking at guys like Samardzija and Shelby Miller as rotation pieces, and Lester would have come back for very very little and much of that deferred...seems like an odd move IMO. Purely for on-field considerations, I personally wouldn't have wanted Lester back even at the league minimum. Someone like Shelby Miller you can kick his ass to the curb if he has three bad starts in a row. You can't do that to folk hero Jon Lester. Basically, my guess is there is/was something like $20-30M available post Darvish trade. That's enough to do some work, but not a lot. And so the plan is to take an approach to the rotation similar to what they've taken with the bullpen the last few years, and then use what little money you have on locking in actual quality in the OF and at 2B once prices started coming down. Kaplan has been pounding the "they have zero money" drum. So now that they're going to spend some money, that 4'3" little skeez has gotta pretend that what happened is that circumstances changed and not that he's just clueless.

How likely is it Tom played $GME this week? Personally, this reads to me as a Kaplan "cover my ass" move. Or he's very liberally playing with the word "recently." The Cubs clearly aren't spending a ton, and given that reality they were likely always going to wait until A) after the Arb deadline and B) for some of the top tier of FA to sign so they could start seriously engaging with the middle tier.

Joc is mostly just a fun house mirror version of Schwarber. My guess is when we dig in deeper on certain aspects (high fastballs?) he fairs much better and thus compliments the current lineup better.

Prior to this Mooney said the Cubs were looking to sign someone from the group of Mike Foltynewicz, Chris Archer, and Carlos Rodon. I doubt this signing changes that, and one of those three will still presumably be the "big" add to the rotation. So that'll make this what we likely have to work with: Established Guys Hendricks Davies Rodon (or whoever) Unestablished Guys, No MiLB Options Shelby Miller Alzolay (there's some debate here?) Mills Unestablished Guys with Options Kohl Stewart Tyson Miller Cory Abbott Justin Steele The (not very) funny thing is if we still had Darvish and he pushed everyone down a slot, I'd really like this group.

Not sure how much is left to wring out of him. The Twins are a pretty analytically savvy org and they let him go even though he's making league minimum and has MiL options. But hey stash him at Iowa what's the worst that could happen.

That's interesting. While it seems pretty bad, it's a relief from where my mind was going in that it's focused on a single person though. I'm curious what the story is, I don't see a whiff of anything from Google.

Do you think Tua is that good? He's probably got a better chance of being good than anybody else that would be available with that pick, and outside the top available QBs the Bears probably won't get, he's probably got the best chance of having a solid career going forward. It would be interesting at least. If Nagy can't make it work right away, they can move on with an organizational overhaul with all their important 2022 draft picks available, including what would probably be a high 1st/2nd/3rd. They'd also have the lottery ticket of Tua competing with whoever the new QB is drafted in 2022. Yeah. I think this would be a good way of hopefully setting yourself up for the long term, but if it fails you didn't pay a huge price. I'm *mostly* of the mind that a QB's rookie year doesn't tell you anything except maybe at the extremes. Even then, Baker Mayfield has settled into being pretty solid after having maybe the best rookie season since Luck. Josh Allen is now a star after being hilariously bad his rookie year. I think years two and three are when you start to know what a guy is, and so Tua's story is still mostly unwritten. So especially since Tua had a fairly normal rookie QB year, you buy him based on pedigree. And besides his injury (which I think is fully cleared at this point?) he's got better pedigree than anyone in this draft except Lawrence. If you have the opportunity to get that for #20 and a day 3 pick my gut says take it and run. And as a bonus you don't have to twiddle your thumbs through his rookie season.