Bertz

With the team playing like butt and an astounding 15 (!!!) impending free agents on the roster, it feels like it might be worth starting to keep an eye on the trade deadline. The way I see it there are five groups of guys on the roster who could be dealt: The Nobodies - Low ceiling options with no realistic path to bringing back a big return - Sogard, Duffy, Shelby Miller, Romine, Marisnick, Winkler The Salvageables - Guys with solid track records who've gotten off to crappy starts. They could still net something fun if they get hot for two months - Davies, Joc, Workman, Tepera The Solid Rentals - These guys have legit pedigrees for performance, but have gotten off to mixed starts (either good results with bad peripherals or vice versa) - Arrieta, Chafin, Javy The Stars - Guys with star pedigrees currently performing like stars - KB, Rizzo The Team Control guys - They are controlled through next year, so even if they produce and we sell they might not go anywhere - Willson, Kimbrel, Brothers, Williams

It just really depends on what the roster looks like at the end of the year. There's A LOT of money available this winter, nearly $100M even if the plan is only to match this season's down payroll. If we get good outcomes on Nico, Alzolay, Happ, etc. It seems pretty easy to throw a bunch of money at the roster and go right back to being division favorites. But if there's only a couple guys on the roster you feel good about it is probably rebuild time. Though I don't expect we'll hit near the depths of the last one.

Also looks like he's starting in High A: Let's get that hype train rolling!

I thought this was really interesting, especially contrasting to what the Cubs did during the first half of the Theo/Jed era. The Cubs took a horsefeathers load of back end looking SPs with command and a nice breaking ball, but who were light in velocity. Unfortunately, none of these guys added velo, so they all stalled out at Tenn or Iowa. The Indians basically did the same thing, but successfully added that velo to a handful of guys, and ended up with Clevinger/Bieber/etc. Also, earlier this winter Jed lamented being too careful with guys and not pushing them a little more on the player development front. So it appears that they had the right idea, but only went halfway, which is why they essentially went 0 for half a decade on the pitching front. On the hitting front, the Cubs have obviously acquitted themselves quite well, but it's still interesting to contrast with the Rays. The Cubs clearly also prioritized plate discipline, but went the direction of trying to improve the contact of power guys rather than improve the power of contact guys.

Is this math right, roughly? if you K 10 times, that means the defense is making 17 outs. Give them 1 HR per game (probably low, 30 in 23 so far) for one hit, and 1 double play per game (high, averaging .7 per game so far) to make it 16 balls in play converted to outs. That translates to 3 hits vs 16 outs on balls in play, or a .158 BABIP. Of course if you make it, say, 13 Ks, it goes to .188. The league BABIP so far is .283, but the lowest it's been since 2010 in any other year is .292. That was last year, so let's be pessimistic and say it's .290. I'm not smart enough to calculate the odds of BABIPing under .200 in a game when the actual number is .290, but I'm guessing it's less than the 1/3rd rate we're currently running. All this to say I think we're still getting unlucky, though it might not matter given our schedule the next couple weeks and by the time we emerge from that it might be too late. At this point, it looks like the luck has roughly evened out at the team level after the offense's outburst last week. At the individual level, a couple guys (Happ and Bote) are still getting heavily horsefeathered, but that's balanced out on the ledger by KB and Javy. The team is 27th in the league in BABIP at .256, but they're second in HR per fly ball rate. So they're missing some singles but have been fortunate dong wise. Looking at their Statcast numbers, and excluding pitchers, it looks like the team has a .311 wOBA, and a .326 xwOBA. Good news, right? Well it turns out that league wide xwOBA is higher than actual by 21 points in the early going. I'm guessing it's still recalibrating post rabbit-ball? There's still obviously room for guys to perform better, but the baseball gods already chipped in what they owed us.

Has Ademan been at SB all spring, or was he just making a spot start? Like Adam Morgan's a major leaguer and he pitched so it's clearly not weird for guys to move up/down a level based on where playing time is available on a given day. But If Ademan opens at SB that would feel like the final nail in his prospect coffin.

Going back to the start of last season, Tatis Jr. has averaged 96 horsefeathering MPH off the bat. #2 is Mike Trout at 94. Tatis/Acuna/Soto is basically the baseball holy trinity at this point.

Cubs relievers had a 3.46 ERA coming into today Do you believe that ERA accurately reflects their performance, or has there been some unsustainable luck involved over a small sample size? Dillon Maples currently has an ERA of 2.00, but walks more than 1 batter per inning. Dan Winkler is at 1.43, but has also walked 1 batter per inning. It is only a matter of time before the walks come back to burn them, and the bullpen as a whole. Sure, but then you have Chafin and Brothers on the flip side of that coin: strong peripherals and a crappy ERA. Chafin's the primary setup man too, so you feel those unlucky runs more than you benefit from Maples escaping damage while we're already down 6. We need to figure out which of Tepera/Adam/whomever from AAA is the second RH setup guy, but otherwise I feel quite good about the pen. Kimbrel's been incredible, Workman started a little slow but has been good overall, Chafin's been great but unlucky, etc. I think early in the year people are even more prone to freakouts than normal, so a legitimately bad weekend for the pen has people on the ledge.

Cubs relievers had a 3.46 ERA coming into today

I think this is easily the best Jake has looked all year. The starts prior to this have been very much like latter day Jon Lester. Escaping jams by the skin of his teeth. But today he's missing bats and getting grounders. Really encouraging.

I think Luis Urias looks pretty good. The trade is kind of a disaster for the Brewers, but IMO that's more about how good Trent Grisham has been for San Diego.

I actually do think it was the right call. Leaving Alzolay in would have been managing to the pitcher win, rather than the team win.

I'm really trying hard to temper my expectations. But except for like two innings he's looked phenomenal all season (caveat, the Brewers' lineup without Yelich is trash)

Peralta's velo was down that inning Coming into today his fastball averaged 93.6 on the year. In the first he threw 16 fastballs and only 5 topped 93. It's not like alarmingly low, but it bodes well for the prospects of getting to him later in the afternoon

Brewers are going to have to win all their games 3-2 for quite a while it looks like

Duffy too It's certainly not a good lineup, but I think has a better chance of success against the Brewers more electric arms than the main guys

I like that our defensive minded backup CF is actually fast now. Shaw's ball would have rolled to the wall if Almost were out there still.

Holy hell at that DP turn!

*whispers* I'm actually coming around on the extra inning rule */whispers*

I'd like to see Duffy get a few starts this weekend. He's certainly not good, but is working a good AB right now. That's more than most of our guys can say against Peralta and Woodruff.

I kind of wonder if we'll look back and say that COVID prevented a lockout (or at least one long enough to actually affect games). I just think the owners aren't going to have the stomach for a third year of decreased revenues. They'll get their expanded playoffs and they'll give up a bunch of little things the players want, and that'll be that.