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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I think it's also fair to point out that Kantrovitz got hired in October of '19. So it wasn't just the generally disruptive force of COVID, it was that on top of doing it in a new org.
  2. Bertz
    Yeah honestly the two easiest ways to reconcile what we're consistently hearing are: - Payroll is a little higher than we're expecting (nothing crazy...an extra 10-15 mil would do the trick) - The team has all these balls in the air but in the end one of their three needs is not actually going to get addressed in FA Hopefully if it is the latter case handle it via trade rather than just punting on it completely.
  3. Bertz
    It feels somewhat clear that the team's FA pref list is Imai followed by King followed by Gallen. What isn't clear is what would it take to push them into the trade market as opposed to free agency. Especially because every bat we've heard about (sans a random Jo Adell nod over a month ago) has been to guys who will make a healthy salary. And the idea of signing both a FA bat and arm of substance from here undermines our assumptions about payroll.
  4. Bertz
    Apparently Heyman is blowing a lot of smoke about the Cubs and Imai. Given the Heyman/Boras stuff you could read that one of two ways.
  5. Bertz
    Bingo. There is nothing immediately behind Dansby/Hoerner/Shaw. If Caissie fails there's Mo, or Alcantara, or Long. Even after a hypothetical Alex Bregman signing Shaw is less redundant than the lesser of Caissie/Mo.
  6. Bertz
    I'm also not a huge Murakami fan but he is a 26 year old who projects to 4 WAR/600 PAs. So that contact risk is scary but also why he's looking at $180M and not twice that.
  7. Bertz
    Murakami doesn't fit this, but if you add a RHH who can cover 3B and don't subsequently deal Shaw away you've got probably the ideal balance of giving runway to the kids while insulating yourself from the downside of them struggling.
  8. Bertz
    Sahadev Sharma has name checked Stanek as well, so there definitely seems to be something here. That said he can't be the only guy from here. Stanek screams out as a good buy low candidate but this bullpen needs *at least* three relievers you feel good about closing a game on day 1 next season. The team can miss me with the handwringing about roster room. The bullpen right now is Palencia, Maton, and six open spots. Let's hold two of those for guys who end up on the outside looking in for the SP mix (e.g Rea and Brown). Let's hold one for whichever minor league vet shows out most in ST. That's still three openings. The team last year correctly identified the need for depth and had Daniel Palencia open the year as the first guy up at Iowa. Hodge should be on exactly the same track. The shopping list should be two Staneks and a Keller unless/until they make trade(s) to significantly improve the crop of optionable arms at Iowa.
  9. Bertz
    I thought Levine's article felt more speculative and not like he was reporting something substantial, so my takeaway here is much more focused on the Cerami/Okamoto bit.
  10. Bertz
    The agent still thought a bunch would happen before Christmas, here's the quote Although for this to work, and Imai to be the why, he has to sign pretty much as soon as he finishes his team visits.
  11. Bertz
    I was reading Bob Nightengale's (I know I know!) winter meetings preview and he quoted a GM who said he expects it to be a pretty slow meetings. He said he expected a ton of rumors and smoke but most of the actual moves to come in the two weeks after. I wonder if Imai is a bottleneck on the pitching. half of things for exactly the reason you mention.
  12. Bertz
    Gun to my head the team ends up with King. I feel like that's had the most smoke from the most corners this winter. What I'm most curious about is what type of bat we're looking at if the team signs one of these FAs in the $20-25M range. - Is the idea that, even if we don't view them that way, someone like King or Gallen is "splashy" enough that they feel comfortable just doing a Rob Refsnyder type? - Is there a little more payroll available than we've been conditioned to think, and they can do a mid tier bat even on top of a $20M+ SP and the relief support they need? - Is there a low salary trade target they're eying? - Is there a plan to move some salary out? E.g. Taillon out, Gallen + Gore + Okamoto in
  13. Bertz
    Geno Suarez is, by a very wide margin, the free agent I want to stay the furthrst away from this winter. That said I can't remember a time where Romero was right about anything big, so I'm not sweating this.
  14. Bertz
    As expected, ChatGPT is wrong: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/zac-gallen/19291/splits-tool?position=P&splitArr=266&splitArrPitch=&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=1&startDate=2002-01-01&endDate=2025-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=-1%2C1
  15. Bertz
  16. Bertz
    Japanese pitchers aren't a mystery box anymore. We have the same absurd levels of detail on their velocity/movement/angle/command as any domestic pitcher.
  17. Bertz
    Ferrer is really good too. Like not too far off of Daniel Palencia if we're being honest.
  18. Bertz
    I think it's worth noting that at the deadline Gore was pitching MUCH better, came with an extra playoff run's worth of control, and Shaw had not 111 wRC+'d his way through August/September, and the Cubs weren't willing to include Shaw then. I think I'm with Cuzi that it's Gore+ for Shaw not the other way around.
  19. Bertz
    Me to Cristian Hernandez apparently
  20. Bertz
    I guess on Gallen if this does end up going further, like most here I wouldn't be a fan. I poated this a few weeks ago Gallen's very similar to Shota in that he's probably still a good pitcher who just had a bad season, but being an ace feels like it's fully in the past. If he were replacing Shota I'd be down for the signing, but he's just not good enough to be our top guy this winter. If the team signs Gallen for me to end up happy with this winter's haul they either need to add yet another SP (which necessitates a Taillon trade) or aim way higher for a bat than I had expected the team to do coming into the winter. Both feel exceedingly unlikely. The former because of how strong this case of FA SPs is, the latter because I don't imagine the budget can fit Gallen AND a big bat.
  21. Bertz
    LMAO classic Bob. He did get mostly vindicated on Pressly (the NTC hadn't been dealt with but the teams had agreed to a deal),so we're not totally out of the woods, but usually he's just plain wrong.
  22. Bertz
    I actually think you still trade one of Mo/Caissie unless someone (the Nats might?) absolutely insists on Shaw in a SP trade. Shaw mashed lefties last year with a 125 wRC+, we have no adequate short term depth on the infield, and then of course Hoerner is in his walk year. Shaw is much less redundant even after a Bregman signing than the lesser of Mo/Caissie. Also randomly he's fast enough I bet he could back up CF if we gave him ST to learn.
  23. Bertz
    Come on don't be ridicu--- *Puts finger to earpiece* Apparently the Rockies are signing Paul Goldschmidt and Andre McCutchen to 9 figure deals because they were still superstars last time Paul Depodesta warched a baseball game?
  24. Bertz
    Baseball teams make it tough to say things like this definitively with their ridiculous title inflation, but I believe this is a step up. Byrnes was as far as I can tell the #3 or #4 guy in LA and is now clearly #2. I'd also guess he's pretty close to a partner with Depodesta. I.e. more of a Theo/Jed dynamic than a Jed/Carter one. Honestly the bar was so low in Colorado I do suspect Depodesta + Byrnes is going to be a major upgrade.
  25. Bertz
    Something interesting Sahadev Sharma brought up on his podcast: Alex Bregman would have actually hit more homers at Wrigley than he did at Fenway this past year. Philly and Sacramento are the only parks he would have been expected to hit more. A bit surprising because I think the vibe is that he's, while not as extreme, in the Paredes/Bellinger mold.
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