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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. I'm guessing given that he was wearing the mitt, this is a "let's be safe and protect our asset" play, but man every bump and bruise for him and Kimbrel the next few weeks will be scary
  2. FG is doing farm system rankings this week so this sort of fuzzy math is likely unnecessary, but this points towards the system being considered roughly above average by their estimation. Broadly, the FV grades break out like this: 50 or higher - Top 100 caliber 45 - Typical Org Top 10 caliber 40 - Typical Org Top 30 caliber 35 - A prospect, but usually low ceiling or very far away The Cubs are light at the top end. Davis is our top guy at #38, and Preciado is the lowest ranked 50 FV guy. You'd expect an average team to have someone a little higher than Davis and then another guy between Davis and Preciado. However, having so many 45+'s (basically in between the two tiers), and having more than thirty guys at the 40 FV tier or higher are good signs. I don't know how it weighs against the lack of top end talent, but I'd guess they roughly balance out and the farm will be somewhere in the 13-17 range. You could also get ahead of yourself with the deadline. I'd imagine we net something like: - Two or three 50's or better - Three to five 45's - Another five-ish 40's That should be enough to bump us comfortably into the top 10, likely closer to #5 than #10.
  3. Still reading the specific blurbs, but I think given all the injuries and slow starts this season this is actually pretty positive. 45+'s are guys who are top 100 types but with one big question mark (usually health), so having 5 of those helps balance out only having two top 100 types.
  4. Now hitting .268/.372/.464 as a 21 yo in AA. Gotta work on the Ks but wowza And he's only had 421 PAs in pro ball. I think that's what gives me the most optimism that the K's are just a slump and not permanent.
  5. Now hitting .268/.372/.464 as a 21 yo in AA. Gotta work on the Ks but wowza
  6. The California Pizza Kitchen thing is going to stick with me for years like Harris Wittels' love for Chili's leftovers
  7. I think it would be Luis Devers today. We also haven't seen Chris Clarke, Josh Burgmann, Benjamin Rodriguez, Luke Little or Koen Moreno yet. Hope they aren't (still) hurt. I think I saw somewhere in the last week that Clarke was close. Though I think we all thought Franklin was close 6 weeks ago too and that clearly hasn't happened so TBD.
  8. I think we're mostly in the clear on the sticky stuff front. Nance has seen his spin rates absolutely crater, and Keegan Thompson's also taken a real hit, but everyone else is down but really not any more than the league as a whole. I am a bit nervous to see Steele back up here, because he was a spin rate monster as well, so I hope he doesn't get Nance'd. I’m confused on how what you said means the Cubs are in the clear? Nance and Thompson were 2 of the reasons the Cubs bullpen was as great as it was for 6 weeks so having their spin rates plummet means the bullpen was propped up by sticky tack pitchers. And then you say the rest of the pen is down but not more than the rest of the league. Meaning it is down since the ban started meaning sticky substances were likely contributing to their success to some degree. Unless I’m reading your comment wrong. So it goes back to my original comment. The Cubs have had the ability to cobble solid bullpens together from the scrap heap the past 3 or so years. It was one of the few things we could point at and say the Cubs were doing better than the others teams in baseball. It gave me some confidence that the FO was competent. If all of this was driven by being ahead of the curve on using sticky substances than I’m not sure how confident I am in the organization to do anything well. Now a caveat - even if the Cubs were heavy sticky tack users, that doesn’t mean it’s the sole reason why they’ve had success, and also the Cubs had no reason to believe that sticky substances would be banned so they get credit for finding a competitive advantage and embracing it. It was just the wrong one it looks like. Every team is down, and nearly every pitcher is down. Because MLB decided to put sunscreen on the bad side of the line, something like 80% of guys have some drop in their spin rate, and like a quarter have seen a large drop. This is basically a reverse "rising tides lift all boats" situation. The Cubs having two low pedigree rookies get smoked by this is actually quite lucky. Look at what what happened to the Dodgers: https://twitter.com/No_Little_Plans/status/1409873784811757589?s=19 As A TEAM, they've lost more spin than Keegan Thompson. And beyond them, the league average is down ~50 RPMS. The Cubs, or any team, was never going to get through this unscathed. The key is not having a bunch of guys, or one primo guy like Gerrit Cole, get popped. And I wouldn't worry about the pitch lab moving forward. I mean just since this happened Brad Wieck has come back up since this happened and hasn't yet allowed a run. There's also a couple guys doing monster things at Iowa and Tenn. The reliever pipeline is still strong. They need to figure out how to apply those same principles to starters.
  9. I think we're mostly in the clear on the sticky stuff front. Nance has seen his spin rates absolutely crater, and Keegan Thompson's also taken a real hit, but everyone else is down but really not any more than the league as a whole. I am a bit nervous to see Steele back up here, because he was a spin rate monster as well, so I hope he doesn't get Nance'd. Was Tepera a big spin rate loser? He seemed to fall apart as soon as the crackdown happened. No, not really. He's in April/May his 4 seam spin rate was 2250, from June 1 onwards it was 2242. That's nothing. I think his command slipped because he was overworked.
  10. Could be overuse but interesting that it started falling apart when sticky tack was banned. Perhaps the pitching lab just just a lab where they developed sticky substances. Sucks if true because it was the most innovative thing they seemed to be doing while the farm system languished and the star hitters all regressed into a bottom tier offense. Yes yes World Series thank you and all that but what is this org doing well right now? I know there is promise in the minors but it’s not exactly a top 15 system at this point is it? Sorry I’m being overly negative and maybe unfair I just see nothing but negatives within the cubs right now I think we're mostly in the clear on the sticky stuff front. Nance has seen his spin rates absolutely crater, and Keegan Thompson's also taken a real hit, but everyone else is down but really not any more than the league as a whole. I am a bit nervous to see Steele back up here, because he was a spin rate monster as well, so I hope he doesn't get Nance'd.
  11. Javy trying to get to KB and the pen to take him with:
  12. https://twitter.com/StunnaKy/status/1412231762806247441?s=19
  13. Ethan Hearn 2/4 with a double and a walk. Has raised his OPS 130 points the past week (it's still a poor .553 because he was SO bad to start) As bad as the last 10 days have been for the MLB team they've been very positive at MB and TN
  14. I'm really glad to see Roberts still having the spin. Guys like him and Steele that turned into spin monsters in the last 18-24 months you had to worry if they were just Spider Tack-ing. And yeah, the pen looks to be a huge strength for the foreseeable future. I'd love to get Leeper up after whatever roster-shuffling happens around the deadline. I already feel good about our young LH relievers currently in the majors, but with Nance having been (presumably) a Spider Tack guy and Wick being (presumably) dead we don't have a current young RH guy that I trust in any sort of high leverage situation.
  15. Okay, Bryant is clearly healthy, seal him in Carbonite until the Mets are sufficiently desperate
  16. Haven't done the research for this, but it *feels* like he's had one bad inning disease. I wonder if that means he has trouble from the stretch, or if it means he has trouble making adjustments mid inning.
  17. Oh and he's been playing 5 defensive positions to boot
  18. Morel since his ROUGH first two weeks of the season: 145 PAs, .248/.366/.529, 15.2 BB%, 22.1 K%, 8 dongs, 6 steals, 0 CS That's still not that many PA's, so give him another month-ish, but the man might be ready for Iowa.
  19. I really liked all the 2014 call-ups and breakouts. Soler's two dong game against the Cardinals and Arrieta's game at Fenway in particular The 2015 playoffs. The first two rounds were so awesome I really can't be mad about getting pantsed by the Mets Unfortunate now in hindsight, but Addison Russell's walk off defensive play where he like did the worm to flip the ball to second I know you said no 2016, but the Dexter Fowler surprise re-signing And yeah, those two walk offs you mentioned were probably the best of this era
  20. Howard is NOT on the IL, is 3/4 with a double, and has finally hit the Mendoza Line batting .200 exactly Edit: Scooped by Raisin
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