Bertz

Good replies here and interesting conversation topic. I do think building from the bottom up is underrated. I think broadly depth gets you to the playoffs, and stars win once you're there.

Yeah that's amazing in itself; now he's trying to turn into a 2:1 guy which is simply unreal. Tonight he struck out for the just the 2nd time in his last 12 games. Yeah 2:1 for a guy with power has always been impressive, but ESPECIALLY nowadays. Like that's some prime Gary Sheffield horsefeathers but it's coming against pitchers who throw on average 4-5 MPH harder.

It's interesting that Morel has started hitting the hell out of the ball while his K/BB numbers have gone the other way again. For most of the year, his plate discipline numbers were great for a guy with such a free swinger reputation, but he just wasn't hitting. Now it's essentially the opposite. That's not necessarily a problem, a lot of guys swing freely when they're feeling good and grind ABs a lot more when they're not hitting. If with a little more age and experience he can smooth things out a bit that'll work, though probably will lend itself to him being a streaky hitter.

Three guys who will all be on next year's team combined to give up one run over ten innings and that's....bad?? There's no reason to pitch both multiple innings. Give other guys shots in high pressure situation. Winning these games does nothing for the future. I feel like we went through this same thing in 2010 when the Cubs finished 24-13, bought into their roster, and finished the next season 20 games under .500 when the pressure was back on. Wouldn't you like to know if they're guys you can ask to go multiple innings, or whether they're like Craig Kimbrel and hate it? Isn't it nice to figure this out now while games don't matter? Like I'm all about the tank, but if guys who are going to be on next year's team want to step up right now go ahead. Going into the offseason I'd much rather have say, a 76 win on paper talent team with the 12th pick in the draft than a 72 win team with the 5th pick. Unfortunately, aside from Happ and maybe Steele, none of the guys currently playing are high upside enough to move the needle much on next year's projection. But if a bunch of guys all produce, like we're seeing right now, all together they can move the needle quite a bit.

Three guys who will all be on next year's team combined to give up one run over ten innings and that's....bad??

Despite having been a bonus baby, Perlaza's got fairly quiet tools right? Because numbers wise there's a lot to like.

Trevor Megill since August 14th: 9 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 HR 0 BB, 1 HBP, 17 K, a 45ish GB% It's still mostly been low leverage work, though Ross appears to be testing him a little bit more in that regard lately.

Mostly noise? Most of the old guard underperformed, so I don't think it's a measurement thing. I'd guess it's like 90% SSS and 10% player type. On player type, there's two things Statcast's X stats don't handle (or at least well): horizontal direction and player speed. A slow guy who only pulls the ball like Schwarber will underperform his X stats while a fast guy who sprays the ball like Hoerner will over perform. So for Hoerner and Madrigal it might be real, but everyone else like Schwindel it's likely just a fluke.

There were some warning signs with Lahair even during that stretch that don't exist with Schwindel. - He was striking out a lot. His 28.1% rate isn't that notable these days, but back then would have been top 10 among qualified hitters - He had a .460 BABIP. Four. Six. Zero. Insane, I know we all knew he was lucky even at the time but hot damn I didn't realize how much he was until looking just now. Guys are always going to get good batted ball luck during hot streaks, but wowza - He had a 37% HR/FB rate. That's also stupid high. This was pre juiced ball so no one in MLB had a higher than 30% rate for the season back then. Even post juiced ball there's usually only 2-3 guys a year over 30% and usually no one over 35% The funny thing is that while he did crash afterwards, and crash hard, his underlying skills didn't change that much. His hard hit rate stayed steady, his GB/FB numbers stayed steady, his plate discipline stayed steady, etc. He just started running a normal BABIP and a slightly low HR/FB rate. Schwindel has certainly been lucky. Not as preposterously so like Lahair, but quite a bit. However, if you strip out luck and look at his Statcast xwOBA, he's been good at .344 (it's on the OBP scale so .320-.330 is average). Here's a list of guys within 5 points of his xwOBA: Bo Bichette Anthony Rizzo Kris Bryant Starling Marte Brandon Belt Jake Cronenworth So like I wrote a few days back, I think what he's currently doing is pretty sustainable. It probably should result in more of a 115 wRC+ than a 173, but there's legitimately good things happening under the hood. The question is whether he can sustain what he's currently doing. We've seen Patrick Wisdom go through two slumps and then adjust and come out the other end fine. Schwindel hasn't had his slump yet. And with where we are in the season, there's maybe enough runway for one slump and for him to start pulling out of it. But we're not going to *know* if he can do the adjust/re-adjust cycle necessary to be an MLB regular until next year. That sucks, because you can't trust him but at the same time 1B would be a crappy place to allocate resources to this offseason.

This seems to be the genesis, but again I haven't seen anything about them cutting those guys. I think one of the beat guys mentioned they were considering a Quinn restructure before they did Graham but that's all I've found. I believe that’s for next year. This is the Graham maneuver that sparked it all (the good years means there’s dead cap next season too but I’m no cap expert and I’m not learning the intricacies of the cap now): Oh that makes a lot more sense if it's a thing people are expecting this offseason rather than a thing people are expecting right now. Getting mad about it today is certainly weird and unproductive, but at least I understand the actual issue now.

Huh? Haven't seen that. They did some cap maneuvers with Jimmy Graham to extend most of his cap hit to 2022. That was needed just to get back under the cap apparently, as they didn't have enough "in season" buffer. But yea, to cut Foles AND Quinn, I don't think they actually could do it. But I've felt for a while they probably should cut Foles just for the roster spot, but they'd need to restructure someone (likely Quinn) to defer some cap to accommodate Foles dead cap acceleration. But maybe just hang on to him until the trade deadline... Never know. This seems to be the genesis, but again I haven't seen anything about them cutting those guys. I think one of the beat guys mentioned they were considering a Quinn restructure before they did Graham but that's all I've found.

There's a bunch of hand wringing on Twitter this morning about the negative cap impacts of cutting Robert Quinn and Nick Foles but I haven't seen anything to indicate the Bears are cutting Robert Quinn or Nick Foles?

This is really good data. A few of these, like Morel and Canario, I'd never have guessed were anywhere near this high.

I'm full aboard #TeamTank but I still think there's some nuance needed here and a day like today had a lot more good than bad. Someone like Davies doing well? Unequivocally bad. I actively root against him at this point. I literally LOL'd when he gave up the slam Guys like Duffy and Adam Morgan doing well? Probably bad? They're pending FAs, but going to be low enough that they're going to sign somewhere for soft factors like comfort, opportunity, etc. Them doing well, and the Cubs getting a front row seat, helps everyone make the best possible decision in January. I think I'd rather have the draft slot but there's an argument here Guys like Schwindel, Ortega, and Wisdom well? Probably good! Schwindel is not going to catch the last out of the Cubs' next World Series, but can he be a quality bench guy or second division starter for the next year or three? Absolutely! There's real value there, especially with how many question marks are going to be on next year's team Happ, Alzolay, and Wick doing well? Phenomenal, easily outweighs losing a game in the reverse standings.

I can't possibly imagine someone with the name of Shea Spitzbarth had an easy time growing up

It’s crazy that despite his unbelievably bad hitting he still has a positive fWAR this year, albeit just 0.1. He’s still a positive fielder and baserunner. I would consider keeping him if he accepted a very reduced role of 25th man, used only for late inning defense and pinch running. If we’re paying him either way why not use him in a way that gives us value? Also he’s a great clubhouse guy to have assuming he accepts the reduced role with professionalism. That said, I’m not sure Ross would use him in that way if he’s on the roster. I hate to infer this because his job should be to put his roster in the best position to win but I get the feeling he will do everything he can to make sure his buddy gets every opportunity in the world to play everyday. Maybe I’m wrong…he did eventually release Arrieta, though I think that release came several starts too late and Jake had to give us 3 IP, 6 ER games for a couple of months before the trigger was pulled. Also, I get that Ross doesn’t make roster decisions like that but I’m sure he had some influence, especially when the deadline happened and there was nothing to play for. Yeah, I think the Heyward decision is tough, so I'm not going to get too invested either way. He's likely not *this* bad of a hitter, and as long as he's not he's still probably in quality bench player range when you add his defense, baserunning, platoon splits, and soft factors like leadership. Like I don't think he's no longer worth being an MLBer, and we're paying him either way. That said I think I think Ortega and Deichman are better players. Probably modestly, but they're probably better. And unlike Heyward, if they're bad next year they are *very* easy to cut bait with. I don't think next year's going to be a total wash, but I do think there's going to be some roster churn, particularly in the first half, and having another roster spot where you can cycle guys through has real value.

GB rate has been up post DL too

Raised his OPS 50ish points tonight. He's been a bit of a disappointment since coming over but it goes to show how little time he's ultimately had over here

Yeah, early on he was pretty unlucky, but from May onwards there was no real excuse. He could have just packed it in but instead he's grinding and finally has his numbers back up to "merely kind of bad." Hopefully he can stay hot and the season at "decent.". Makes this offseason a lot easier if you feel like you can count on him. Love seeing the bullpen rounding into form. Megill's actually been pretty good the last few weeks. Would love for him to do enough that he can be near the top of the list among the guys fighting for a pen spot in Spring Training.

I don't subscribe to BP but I'm damn tempted just for this article

It's not. Him and Sullivan have been irrelevant as far as being sourced goes since the Hendry era ended. If Jesse Rogers or Patrick Mooney say something like that get a little nervous, none of the other beat writers are notably connected though.

I still think Schwindel is interesting. Not nearly ready to say he's good, but I've seen enough I do think he's a legitimate MLBer. He's chasing a lot, swinging at 34.9% of pitches out of the zone. That's a lot (~90th percentile), but a far cry from like Javy. It's more in line with Eloy Jimenez, Ozzie Albies, and Adolis Garcia His contact rate on pitches in the zone is pretty good. At 87.1% that's about 70th percentile, in line with guys like Starling Marte and Xander Bogaerts He also hits very few balls on the ground (33.3%, ~90th percentile), and he hits them hard (89.9 EV, ~75th percentile) These are all things that tend to become meaningful relatively quickly. That's not to say that after ~100 PAs we've found his true talent level, but it does likely mean that on broad terms the four statements above are all likely true. The problem is that with a meh defensive 1B, the bar is really high and so the degree to which each of those statements are true matters a great deal. I think his current peripherals are unique but ultimately able to sustain pretty good production, but if he starts hitting the ball less hard, on the ground more, swing and missing more, etc. things dry up pretty quickly.

I'm finding myself interested in the timing of promotions for some guys that have hit the ground running at their new level. Nelson Velazquez was promoted during a cold streak, he hit .148 and struck out 44% of the time the week leading up to his promotion, and absolutely exploded on getting to AA Yohendrick Pinango was ICE cold for over a month, got hot for a week and then got the bump to A+, and has been raking since Alexander Canario hit .227 and K'd 39% the week leading up to the trade. Again the Cubs promote him and he absolutely goes off I understand that there are non box score reasons for promotions, and that we publicly are using stat lines as proxies. There's all sorts of things like bat path and attack angle and such that we'll never know. But you'd think for a hitter that positive developments in "hidden" areas would manifest in positive developments in the box score. So like you'd expect good production with bad metrics to withhold a promotion, but it's interesting to see bad production with (presumably) good metrics lead to a promotion and IMMEDIATELY follow with good production at a harder level. Like it's unequivocally good. It really speaks to the thought that the Cubs do get player dev, but it's kind of wild to watch from the outside.