Bertz

Pinango's tough. I'm generally one to pound the table for guys who succeed at a good age relative to their league, but his defensive ceiling is probably as an adequate corner outfielder and he hits WAY too much on the ground to get to any of his power. He's probably something like Maikel Franco but has enough shot at being Yordan Alvarez that I'm certainly watching him closely. I have him at #23 on the list I'm working on, but think you could argue him like 10 spots higher if you wanted.

I actually have been noodling on a top prospects list given that everything but Iowa is done, and nothing these last two weeks are going to materially change our opinion on Davis, Deichman, or the relievers (which is pretty much all that's left at Iowa prospect-wise). By my count, I see 17 guys you could realistically put in the top 5 (ordered by rough MLB proximity) Davis Kilian Amaya Velazquez (I'm probably alone out on this limb) Wicks Brailyn Jensen Herz K. Franklin (probably the least defensible guy on this list TBH) PCA Made Howard Caissie Hernandez Alcantara Preciado Triantos That really speaks to both the strength and weakness of this system. It's not great that you can argue ~17 guys up as high #5. But on the flip side it's fantastic that guys like Ethan Roberts and Ben Leeper really don't belong in our top 30. Even a lot of damn good systems have like half the depth we do, and have several guys like that in their 20s.

Yeah, I'm happy for the guy, but I'm not sure he's even better than Trevor Megill. When I look at the Tigers and think about regrettable trades, I look much more in Candelario's direction.

Do we know where Riley Thompson is? I thought he was a "hurt but no surgery" guy but with how many injuries there were to keep track of in April maybe I got him mixed up with somebody else. Also, I'm hoping this is good news for Kohl Franklin and Brailyn. I'd think them not being here is a sign they're going to be in the AFL?

Heyward it depends on how you feel about his off field stuff. On a pure in-game basis I'd rather have that role filled by Rivas or Deichman, but I understand if his mentorship wins out, especially in a year where we're going to start calling up prospects. Bote's gotta be traded. You look at his Fangraphs page and it's fairly obvious he's a victim of some BABIP luck. That said, even the good version of Bote is redundant on a roster that already has Wisdom and and an otherwise all right handed infield.

I think this is more or less how I see it - Contreras, Happ, Hoerner, and Madrigal can start every day. Happ ideally no longer in CF, and Hoerner ideally as a SS/2B/CF supersub, but broadly that's four guys I'm happy with - Schwindel and Wisdom are fringe starters. Depending on how the chips fall this offseason I'm okay focusing resources elsewhere, but they're not guys you write in the lineup card in pen. And if they are starters, a high end backup needs to be brought in as insurance (e.g. Brad Miller) - I do tend to think Brennen Davis will be up the bulk of next year. So if they want to do some sort of Ortega platoon in CF to hold the spot warm for Brennen, I'm fine with that, but that does leave one OF spot that needs a starter brought in - Among the bench guys, Chirinos would be a solid backup C, but Duffy, Alcantara, and anyone else lacking minor league options can go. Setting aside catchers, I want my bench guys to be REALLY good at something, or have options so you can cycle them in and out - I think there's plenty to work with in the pen. I'd like a salty veteran to fill the role Jeffress had last year, and they probably need a lefty if Steele's in the rotation (more on him in a minute), but that's about it - Alec Mills now has a career 4.07 ERA as a starter in nearly 180 innings. I'm happy to hand him a spot. Hendricks has been a mess recently, but he's clearly going into next year as a starter - I wouldn't promise Alzolay a rotation spot next year, but would definitely give him the inside track on one. His dong problem is *probably* a fluke. Steele's had some flashes in the rotation, but has just not shown nearly enough. I'd let him go into next ST and try to wrestle that rotation spot from Adbert, but assume he'll be in the pen So that makes the offseason shopping list 2 SPs, a SS, a corner OF, a corner IF, a veteran reliever, and a backup C. Easy peasy :-"

I don't know the numbers but gonna guess a take premised on "you should have run on 3rd and 7" isn't gonna hold up to much scrutiny

I'm not usually on the right side of history with my NFL hot takes, but feeling pretty good about my vehement opposition to getting Wentz this offseason

It's wild how low tech ball spotting still is here in 2021.

https://twitter.com/drivelinebases/status/1438981515531079681?s=19

Really feels like there's something here

Ryan Jensen had a good last start of the year. Didn't miss a ton of bats, but got a ton of grounders. I'm not going to do the napkin math, but he's probably ended his AA cup of coffee with a groundballs rate north of 60%.

I'm WAY more concerned about Kyle's last ~6 weeks or so than I was by him getting donged into oblivion in April.

After another two weeks, he's still got solid peripherals. The batted ball data has gotten worse, while the plate discipline has gotten better. Again it's looking more and more like he can make this work enough to be a quality MLB hitter. - The GB rate has gone up a ton. It's now at 41.3%, which is still better than average but only by a smidge - The exit velo is down from 89.9 MPH to 88.8, which is pretty much exactly average - The plate discipline has mproved; he's down to a 32.6% chase rate which is ~80th percentile - The in zone contact rate has improved a bit to 88.1%, now ~75th percentile The concern is that the bar at 1B/DH is so damn high. Like if he was a 2B or centerfielder I'd already be comfortable handing him a starting spot next year. As it is though I imagine he's going to settle in at a point where he's got good platoon numbers and should only situationally get starts against righties. I'd love to get him a platoon/matchup partner. Somebody like Brad Miller might be perfect. He's (at least nominally) a 3B, so maybe you could add him to the mix with Frank and Wisdom and know you've got both spots handled, even if the ideal distribution of playing time is gonna be a bit of a play by ear scenario.

I'd love to see some of these articles. Because just about everything I've seen, both on the record and on background, has said some variation of either "retool not rebuild" or "¯\_(ツ)_/¯ until we know what the CBA looks like." I consider a 3 year "retool" a "rebuild". That's fair. I'd still love to see some of these articles.

I think it’s way too early to claim that. They have so much money to spend even if they run a “cheap” payroll. If 1-2 of these guys actually remain a thing to some level and they hit on the spending/trades they could easily be back to a division competing team. It really shouldn’t be that hard to build a team that can compete for the division without trading any major prospect pieces with the money they have and ancillary prospects to add a bit as well. They also are starting to amass the prospects to go make a major trade (Soto) if they go that route. They have money to spend, but they don't plan on spending according to all of the articles that I've read. They just have too many holes and weaknesses to fill to compete next year. I think we're looking at a much improved team in 2023 and a competitive team in 2024. Next year will be spent finding out whether Wisdom, Ortega, and Schwindel are for real, whether Hoerner/Madrigal is their middle infield for the future, whether Steele and/or Thompson can be a rotation piece, whether Happ is really fixed or not, etc. I'd love to see some of these articles. Because just about everything I've seen, both on the record and on background, has said some variation of either "retool not rebuild" or "¯\_(ツ)_/¯ until we know what the CBA looks like."

It's stupid early, but so far Alfonso Rivas has been showing crazy plate discipline. Early on, he's only swinging at 20.5% of pitches out of the zone. Among qualified hitters, only 13 guys are better than that so far this year. So 90th+ percentile chase rate. Again though, it's super early. I think Sergio Alcantara did similar his first few weeks up, so it's not at all a given it keeps up. But Rivas has always been a plus plate discipline guy so I'm hopeful it's at least mostly real.

Presumably from today on it's our last look for any SPs? Overall I find myself quite happy with Bain despite the mediocre full season line. Early on he was mostly good, but especially prone to the blow-up inning. But when he went to the pitch lab, he started pitching exclusively from the stretch and has been fantastic since. He's probably primed to open next season in the Tennessee rotation, and I could really see him making noise. And that Tennessee rotation next year. It's probably going to be Marquez Jensen Espinoza Vizcaino Bain That is a fun group. A lot of relief risk, but health permitting I think all five are MLBers. That's fun. And you have Kilian a little bit ahead of them and Wicks a little bit behind them, we've finally got a bit of a pipeline going.

Probably Deichman's biggest game in the org as well. Hopefully whatever changes they've made with him are close to sticking

https://twitter.com/Kevin_Goldstein/status/1437817347197358085?s=19

I find it interesting that Shanahan and Nagy both did something fairly unusual with their rookie QBs on the same day. Can't remember too many times where a rookie QB doesn't start but plays snaps sporadically during the game. I'm going to guess Lamar did it and that is who they are copying. Honestly I could be convinced that having a guy play partial games to get worked in is a savvy way to ease him into the NFL. Akin to using a Starting Pitcher in relief. That said, A) I'd think you'd want to do at least one full series, even this early on, and B) when something looks like it's either super progressive or super meatball-y, Nagy does not get the benefit of the doubt from me that it's the former.

Except for Ben Roethlisberger, even back when he was good. That's one of my favorite weird NFL nuggets is that it essentially works for everybody in the league regardless of QB and RB quality... except for that horsefeathers. Huh don't recall seeing that ever.

I agree, all I'm saying is that the offense produced more with Lazor, regardless of reason, and there was no reason Nagy should have taken back over IMO. When Lazor took over the Bears called the most play-action passes in the league, designed to get Mitch out of the pocket and to one side of the field where he could scan the field easier and make a read. Maybe that would be useless for a veteran like Dalton but I'm just stuck on the fact that he made a quantifiable change and it worked. No, the Play Action definitely isn't just a Mitch thing. It's a good cheat code, even for good QBs. Except for Ben Roethlisberger, even back when he was good. That's one of my favorite weird NFL nuggets is that it essentially works for everybody in the league regardless of QB and RB quality... except for that horsefeathers.

Awesome to see, even though the proeuction hasn't been there lately. Like Gilby said in the other thread I'm guessing he's pretty gassed. I wonder if we see Morel or anyone else join him to take advantage of the extra two weeks the Iowa season has over Tenn.