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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
  2. Bertz
    Cubs 1B have collectively hit like catchers, so getting even adequate 1B production is a massive offensive boost and probably balances the loss of Willson. That said, it's generally better in these scenarios to start from scratch rather than taking last year and doing a bunch of debits/credits from there. Here are the current rest of season wRC+ projections for that batting order: Morel - 91 Happ - 120 Reyes - 109 Suzuki - 126 Hoerner - 104 Wisdom - 105 Narvaez - 98 Madrigal - 97 Kiermaier - 92 It's not perfect way of looking at things since obviously everyone will be a year older (though the lineups young enough it might do as much good as harm?), but I think it shows that there's not really any black holes in the offense. While Keirmaier and Narvaez are defense first guys, they're not exactly Andrelton Simmons. Especially since they'll get some platoon help from Gomes and Velazquez.
  3. Bertz
    *sigh* Of the relevant players on the roster, Steele and Thompson were definitely the two I was most worried about
  4. Bertz
    Just thinking out loud about going all in on run prevention this winter. Something like: Carlos Rodon (~$30M/year over 4-5 years) Kevin Keiermaier (~$10M) Omar Narvaez (~$10M/year for 2 years) Late inning reliever x2 (~$15M) SP - Rodon, Stro, Steele, Thompson, Hendricks 3B - Morel LF - Happ DH - Reyes RF - Suzuki SS - Hoerner 1B - Wisdom C - Narvaez 2B - Madrigal CF - Keiermaier Aside from Wisdom, who's fairly inexperienced at 1B, everyone above is defensively somewhere between good and great at their respective positions. The rotation is probably a top 10 unit, and with Alzolay in the 'pen and Kilian and Wisneski at Iowa it's got as much quality depth as any other other team in the league. Offensively, the lineup probably projects to about average, but it's pretty easy to spot downside risks. Though having Davis, Canario, and Mervis hanging out at Iowa helps mitigate many of those. It'd be really cool if Mckinstry started hitting, because a quality LHH infielder plus the Iowa reinforcements would paper over most concerns. I think I prefer the offseason variations that involve one of the shortstops, but the above probably nets out to a similarly competitive team and given how many fewer long term dollars get allocated it might be more up Jed's alley.
  5. Bertz
    This, the Phillies, and the rule changes should honestly be enough to keep large market teams from going full tank again
  6. Bertz
  7. Bertz
    That second drive checked pretty much every box you could ask for
  8. Bertz
    I’ve only heard lower back tightness which is not ideal but far from worst case scenario I guess. He’ll probably go on the IL On the topic of Steele: Also he’s starting to get a name for himself. Here are some Brewers fans before the game lamenting having to face him again: Fangraphs gave him some love too
  9. Bertz
    Are we thinking he comes up next week when rosters expand? Adbert replacing Farrell and Estrada getting the open spot seems to be the most reasonable path forward, especially since it seems like the org really doesn't want to call up Kilian.
  10. Bertz
    Dude is really turning into a thing
  11. Bertz
    Would explain why he's been getting a crazy number of strikeouts lately
  12. Bertz
    Probably should have checked the MiLB app before posting, he gave up four runs in the fourth No walks or HBP though at least?
  13. Bertz
    Last outing looks like it was a corner turning and not a dead cat bounce
  14. Bertz
    Really encouraging. Probably won't see the third inning of another game this year, but if he's healthy enough to play in the pitch lab that's a huge sigh of relief.
  15. Bertz
    Yeah he's real bad. I'd assume the over/under on when Manny Rodriguez takes his roster spot is like Monday
  16. Bertz
  17. Bertz
    Reggie!
  18. Bertz
    Six?! That's a ton, I'm curious if that's guys leaving the ACL in general, so like inclusive of the pair of injury rehab dudes mentioned, or if it's legit six guys going from the ACL to Myrtle Beach.
  19. Bertz
    Mark Leiter Jr. now has a 2.54 ERA, 3.89 FIP, and 3.09 xFIP when facing hitters the first time through the order (both starting and relieving). His K rate is 29.8%, BB rates is 7.5%, and GB rate is 47.8%. He hasn't really gotten a velo boost out of the pen, so I wouldn't be especially confident ascribing the extra dongs to bad luck, but it's looking like that changeup or splitter is an absolute weapon in short looks. At minimum he's looking more and more like a cromulent 7th inning guy?
  20. Bertz
    The Cubs have only struck out 20 times in the four games so far this series. Not sure if that's a compliment to the Cubs' bats or an insult to the Cards' pitching but seems noteworthy
  21. Bertz
    It's absurd. Let's just assume he keeps this up for the rest of the season. That'd get him to about 150 PAs. Since the start of 2010 here are the 18 or younger hitters with a wRC+ of more than 120 in full season A Ball with a minimum 150 PAs https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=4&lg=2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,12,13,15,16,17,18,30,32,33&stats=bat&qual=150&type=0&team=&season=2010&seasonEnd=2022&org=all&ind=0&splitTeam=true&players=&sort=24,1&filter=Age%7Clt%7C18,wRC%2B%7Cgt%7C120 (It doesn't show in this query but apparently Wander Franco and Vladito did it in High A which...holy horsefeathers) First off, only 21 players in 12 years. But by my count 11 stars, 2 current prospects, 5 solid players, and 3 busts. Obviously let's see Moises keep this up for another month but he's doing incredibly special stuff.
  22. Bertz
    Err I guess technically told he's in, not actually inducted yet
  23. Bertz
    I normally hate taking the camera off the field but that was really horsefeathering cool
  24. Bertz
    That stretch from the London games to the ASB is kind la brutal, especially since they gave the team's two days off on the way to London instead of on the way home. Otherwise though, looks pretty balanced? No super easy blocks no super hard ones, at least as teams are currently constructed.
  25. Bertz
    xwOBA doesn't take into account horizontal launch angle, or speed. A faster spray hitter like Madrigal (or Hoerner) will exceed that number on a systemic basis. It's not gonna make a massive difference, but a regular 15-20 points of "over performing" is probably safe to routinely expect. It's the inverse of the Schwarber conundrum.
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