Bertz

40 man down to 36 people after the moves. Several ended up as FAs along with some others

Yeah if the Abreu signing comes down as quickly as Levine keeps implying it will I think this is the right read. Honestly I'd view 1B/DH, C, and one SP as the only absolutely essential adds this winter. Everything else is a matter of degree and opportunity. I wonder if we see those three things addressed expediently and then everything else drag until the winter meetings or later when the market is clearer.

I think if the team signs a real 1B, Kiermaier is my preference in CF. Bellinger is cool if we need the 1B coverage too, but if the smoke around Bell/Abreu is real I'd rather go with less of a risk in CF. Plus Kiermaier seems likely to cost a bit less.

Maybe this is my coping mechanism then because boy do I really not like giving Swanson 20+ million. It could make sense for say, the Phillies, but this team is so low on firepower that spending that chunk of change on a guy with 1 full season of above average hitting to his name just strikes me as a different flavor of the Jeff Blauser mistake from all those years ago. I'd honestly rather just spread it all around and/or take more chances on prospects coming through. Yeah I think I'd probably just try to go quality everywhere else and punt on shortstop. Something similar to what you laid out, probably with a more primo SP in lieu of the Happ extension? But Jed alluded to adding a shortstop during his end of season interview tour. Talking up the importance of having a primo defensive 2B along with SS again because of no shift, etc. I know he doesn't do the patented Theo "I'm gonna leave a trail of breadcrumbs to my offseason master plan" move with his end of season chat but the implication still sounded pretty clear IMO. He also REALLY talked up adding power, which setting Judge aside is best done at short this winter. I'd be really surprised if Jed punted on the position this winter. I'm hoping that the talk about Jed's reticence on years is more nuanced than what we're hearing. Like for instance, I think it makes sense to limit the number of multi-year deals handed out? Or as you've mentioned before limiting post-prime years. But like Correa projects as a 5 WAR player next year at age 28. Would a 5 year deal to a 3 WAR player really be that much less risky?

Me too. I'd guess a no shortstop offseason likely involves going hard on the rotation. Senga/Smyly seems to be a level of settling you do to facilitate 30-35M allocated to shortstop, but if you're punting there I think Rodon or Verlander is likely leading the pitching staff. To me though, my read on Jed's drawing the line on five/six years is that Swanson becomes the guy. I mentioned this a few weeks ago but he helps make a lot of other pieces fit together better. Right now it's a tough puzzle to get a SS, two SPs, extend Nico, and address both of 1B/CF. But save ~$10M at short and suddenly you can more realistically address the full to do list.

Curious to see how Kluber, or someone else Kluber-like, would fit into the broader plan. Is the plan someone like Senga, who there's a lot of smoke around, paired with someone like Kluber or Smyly? Or is it a trade for a cost controlled SP and then sign another SP in the $10-15M range? With Senga seeming to be plan A.

Agreed. I'm generally against putting too much stock in rings, but for the considerations of a Dynasty I think they're extremely important. You need a run of regular season dominance like the Astros and Dodgers have had lately AND you need a grouping of rings like the Giants had at the start of the '10s. Either doesn't work it must be both. I think the Braves with their 14 straight division titles are the only exception I'm iffy on.

!!!!

I don't know if they're final or more WIP, but it looks like initial 2023 Steamer Projections are listed on Fangraphs. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=17 Lots of encouraging stuff, but I'm gonna avoid getting too into the weeds until there's more indication they're final.

Yeah a lot of promising signs for Jed here. Eyeballing the list the team could do something like Turner, Senga, Bell, Heaney, Narvaez For about $80M. Like you've mentioned previously that's probably a bit on the high end of what we could see spent this winter, but that's some talent. Maybe throw an extra year at somebody and try to get down closer to $75M? Jed would still need to address CF and the bullpen on a shoestring (likely via trade), but something like this provides some serious reinforcements.

Bears currently project to have tied for the 3rd fewest wins in football, but because fractional wins aren't a thing and the Bears come ahead in several tiebreakers they are only given a 36% chance at a top 5 pick. But even if they end up picking like 7th or 8th, with 3 QBs currently slated to go top 10 the Bears will presumably have either a premium tradeback opportunity or one of the top 5 non QBs sitting there for them.

The crowdsourced numbers are historically always a little low, but directionally correct. So if you want a mental model of what guys are going to get take those numbers and add $1-2M of AAV and for a few of the bigger contracts maybe an extra year.

If you *just* look at the last 2-3 games, I agree you can make a case that Fields is playing like a top-10 QB. Last week when I looked at his QBR going back to the Vikings game, it came out to 60 (this probably isn't exactly right since I didn't weight each game by # of dropbacks). Over a full season coming into today, a 60 mark would rank him 10th in the NFL between Jalen Hurts and Derek Carr. His score for today just came out, and it's a 95.3. That puts him at ~67 over his last five. Currently a full season mark of 67 would rank 4th just ahead of Geno Smith (!?!). It's obviously cherry-picking, but basically since the Vikings game he's been playing like a second tier QB. Tua, Allen, and Mahomes are all in the high 70's for the season, but Fields recent play compares favorably to essentially anyone else.

I feel like the over/under for him was $100M, so if you want a sign the market's healthy this is probably a solid one?

Absolutely peak tank win. I'm old enough to remember the Trubisky game against the Bucs so I don't want to put too much into a single game, but this felt like a legit coming out party for Justin and the rest of the offense. And unlike last week, there's no "yeah but" because the Bears were typically multiple scores behind. All but I think two drives were within one score.

Watching the Dolphins only reaffirms that I wanna go WR in the 1st round if possible. Not taking away too much from Tua but he has BIG windows to throw into.

This feels like watching the Cubs in September of 2014. Who gives a horsefeathers about Edwin Jackson's 6-somethimg ERA when Soler/Baez/Rizzo are donging so frequently.

National folks getting on board too