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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    One other positive aspect of the farm that isn't captured in a ranking like this (and shouldn't be) is that there should be a steady stream of talent over the next several years. Like these are the rough ETAs for prospects of major substance who've had enough performance for us to peg: 1H 2023 - Davis, Mervis, Wesneski, Kilian 2H 2023 - Amaya, Canario, Wicks, Brown 1H 2024 - PCA, Caissie, Palencia, Hodge, Devers 2H 2024 - Made, Howard, Horton 2025 - Alcantara, Triantos And they're backed up by a small army of pitchers who are or will likely be relievers (some of whom like Herz and K. Franklin potential impact types) as well as some fun potential bench options. It really is going to be interesting to contrast with the core last time around. Not having to piss away money or trade chips on so many spots on the bottom half of the roster will help quite a bit, but not getting an annual 6+ WAR superstar season like we got from either Bryant and Baez did through the entire last run is obviously a huge negative.
  2. Bertz
    Seems crazy to not even have Davis in the top 7 Cubs prospects Yeah I think it's an overcorrection, especially when he still has Royce Lewis on his list. Like the injuries crested risk certainly, but he's also a guy you could probably have open the year in MLB if you needed to. Is the risk with Davis really any higher than the hitters in A Ball? I'd say no.
  3. Bertz
    PCA at 36 Jordan Wicks at 51 Kevin Alcantara at 77 Caissie, Triantos, Wesneski, and Hernandez listed as 50 FVs, meaning they're top 100 caliber even if they're a smidge behind the actual guys on the ordinal list
  4. Bertz
    https://theathletic.com/4128648/2023/01/31/sarris-ranking-closers-fantasy The article is written from a fantasy slant, but Estrada and Merryweather get some sleeper love. Estrada's SSS results actually put him up with the tier 1 guys. Also I think Wick's marks are relatively encouraging given that we don't actually expect him to end up the closer.
  5. Bertz
  6. Bertz
    I can justify almost any of these weird choices in a silo. I can't justify all of these weird choices together though? It's like at different points they completely change the calculus in weighting ARL, floor, and ceiling.
  7. Bertz
    Yeah, if Bellinger really remembers how to hit (maybe not at MVP levels but at least at his otherwise pre-injury form), you throw Brandon Nimmo money at him and he's the long term LF. It's also pretty hard to see the team selling off this summer if CF is that productive. If Bellinger's just fine offensively, you QO him and bid him adieu. The org's depth at CF means we shouldn't spend money on a CF who's deriving his value purely from defense.
  8. Bertz
    I don't know exactly how he mathed this but a composite ranking of the BA, MLB, BP, and Keith Law prospect lists. FG and ESPN still to come, though I don't think they'll move things that much. Probably move Alcantara and Caissie up a bit and Davis down? I'm surprised at the total lack of support we've seen for the pitchers. I don't think any of them are slam dunk top 100 types, but Wesneski ought to be close and each of Wicks, Brown, and Horton are of the caliber where you wouldn't be surprised by some assorted love. Instead I believe Callis said Horton would make his personal list and that's it. Maybe that's another change we end up seeing from the last two lists, since they both tend to lean on the newer age data pretty hard.
  9. Bertz
    Law looks to be the high guy on Alcantara
  10. Bertz
    I don't think it's unreasonable to not include Hayden Wesneski, but I will say I can't even really devil's advocate my way into thinking Ryan Pepiot is better, and he somehow came in at #70.
  11. Bertz
    Back of the napkin you'd probably say something like 83. Coming into the offseason they were at 74 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/ They've added this offseason 13ish WAR. That's not going to equate to 13 wins though because it was spread so much through the roster, rather than being concentrated in a few spots. So I think depending on how you evaluate some of the particulars you'd probably say they added 7-10 wins.
  12. Bertz
    With the position player group likely settled, what does everyone want to see the lineup look like next year? Let's assume that to open the year at least Hosmer starts while Mervis is at Iowa. I think I'd go something like this: LF - Happ RF - Suzuki SS - Swanson RF - Bellinger 1B - Mancini DH - Hosmer 3B - Wisdom/Morel 2B - Hoerner C - Gomes If Bellinger remembers how to hit, that lineup actually goes pretty hard. Loads up OBP at the top, has power throughout, and does a good job of separating lefties and righties while also splitting up high K guys with more contact oriented hitters. If Bellinger's not hitting, it becomes a lot harder to load Happ and Seiya at the top. You maybe look at something more like: 2B - Hoerner DH - Hosmer RF - Suzuki LF - Happ SS - Swanson 1B - Mancini CF - Bellinger 3B - Wisdom C - Gomes I think in this scenario basically everything south of Swanson changes every day based on matchups. It can still work with the options on the bench and at Iowa, but Ross is going to have to really earn his keep. I've sort of thought this before, but seeing it written out I think it's clear that a Bellinger rebound is the easiest most direct path to this team being good.
  13. Bertz
    Matt Barnes seems like a very natural addition for Jed to make once the Sox cut him and put themselves on the hook for his salary.
  14. Bertz
    This is right in my Q Zone
  15. Bertz
    Setting aside the MLB specific stuff Bryan is talking about, I really love when he puts these together. Seeing it all in one place really reinforces the system's depth. 1B/DH is a bit of a problem south of Iowa (BJ Murray and.....?), and the Myrtle outfield is notably sad, but otherwise very real prospects pretty much everywhere you turn.
  16. Bertz
    Awful. Wasn't he one of the guys who broke out of the bubble to go party in 2020? Completely different issues but would speak to the lack of character and consideration for others' wellbeing.
  17. Bertz
    Do the Marlins want Madrigal too? Arraez, Segura, and Madrigal all in the same lineup would be fun in a very throwbacky way
  18. Bertz
    It's 2023, damn near every pitcher of any consequence has had or will eventually have TJ. It's a natural consequence of the explosion in velocity the last 10 years. Like pitchers are still inherently dangerous so you're not wrong about your broader point of the team putting all their resources into a more dangerous demo, but e.g. Horton's risk is tied far more to the short amount of time he's been flashing ace-level stuff rather than him having had a TJ already.
  19. Bertz
    The Cubs were trying to buy out Lee’s Cal Poly SLO commitment in the second round of 2019 so there are clearly fans of his in the org. There were pretty well established rumors he was falling/completely off certain boards because of his medicals, so I just can’t question that without more info. Once the Guardians (with their draft models‘ bias to younger players) passed on Collier, I knew the industry was lower than draft media. I preferred both of those to Parada. I wonder if Neto is the guy we look back on with regret. Yeah I mostly became content with the decision once we saw the data on Horton's pitches. Just absolutely monster stuff, though there is some real reliever risk. I would have taken Lee, but as you said the knee stuff should give you some very real pause. Collier its hard to question too much. He fell another 10 spots so it's not like the Cubs were on an island in not thinking the juice is worth the squeeze. Neto I'm not too worried about either. The org right now has so much quantity I'm okay potentially foregoing some value by way of his high floor and taking a bigger swing at a guy more likely to be a frontline talent.
  20. Bertz
    The reasonable criticism of last year's draft IMO is that they passed on Brooks Lee to add a bunch of future relievers. But even if that’s true, it keeps the floor pretty high. Like Horton's (presuming health) at minimum a setup caliber arm with his + fastball and ++ slider. Mule's got elite velo, Birdseye and Frisch each have a pair of carrying pitches, etc.
  21. Bertz
    There's a bit of a losing the forest for the trees deal with Swanson because he's not Turner or Correa. But over the last three years among shortstops he's 4th in WAR, 3rd in dongs, and 3rd in defensive value via Statcast. He's really good, he's just more All Star than MVP. Swanson's going to strike out more than you'd like, which is going to keep the OBP from getting all that high. But something like his 3 year average of .265/.324/.451 is about right to expect. Maybe juice the power numbers a little more, as Statcast thinks he'd have hit a lot more dongs if he'd played in the NL Central parks the last few years.
  22. Bertz
    Nah. Leverage is clearly there in other teams so the Bears attitude doesn't matter. Poles could emphatically declare he won't pick first and it wouldn't matter one iota, because there's at least 3 and probably closer to 6 or 8 teams who want that pick.
  23. Bertz
    A little surprised BA didn't still have Brailyn Marquez on the list
  24. Bertz
    Propane is stupid and useless and imparts no flavor. I have a Weber kettle and a kamado and it takes me maybe 5 minutes longer to be cooking on the Weber than it does on a gas grill.
  25. Bertz
    You'd think from the videos he's a super high strikeout and super high walk type, but he's actually been the opposite. He's got a below average K rate, better than average BB rate, and has been hit hard. He had a 6.75 ERA in limited time last year. Glass half full look back to Nate Eovaldi. He was a guy with monster stuff and just inexplicably couldn't miss bats. Then he made a few small tweaks (I believe at Driveline?) post Yankees while recovering from TJ and it unlocked him. The Blue Jays are not exactly luddites, but are not a team where you say "If they can't figure him out no one can." On the flipside the Cubs aren't the Dodgers or Rays where you'd *know* they're going to fix him. But they're progressive enough you give them some benefit of the doubt that they've got a really good plan.
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