Bertz

This is more or less my perfect world offseason. One of the things that's tough this winter is that if you look at Jed's resources, the play is probably one major trade and one major signing. But if you look at the top of the FA market the fits for this roster are Ohtani (who will cost as much as two big FAs), Yamamoto (as an import geography might be a problem), and Bellinger (comes with major statistical red flags). The trade market on the other hand is teaming with fits for this roster. But I just don't see Jed having the appetite to do two major trades, e.g. Alonso+Glasnow. I do think the age on Yamamoto and Soto is a differentiator like you say and would allow Jed to go out of his comfort zone. Otherwise, and there's some vibes from a recent Athletic article to back this up, I'm wondering if Jed's realistic plan is to build a monster offense and more or less let it ride with the internal pitching. Something like this: - Hold onto Stro - Trade for and hopefully extend Soto. Package includes Morel - Acquire two of those secondary bats (I like Garver and Polanco) - Sign David Robertson. It sounds like the reliever they want as much for veteran leadership as it is for the guy's production, so depending on payroll maybe Jed aims lower here to our chagrin You'd have a damn near Braves caliber position player group, more or less last year's pitching staff, and the team keeps the bulk of its powder dry. Feels very Jed.

Morel probably gets you most of the way to Soto if no money changes hands. BBTV actually thinks a 1 for 1 trade is basically fair, though I'd guess that's a bit light. But if you can get Soto for Morel, you probably don't have to part with any of Assad/Brown/Wicks, which would be ideal from a roster flexibility standpoint. Also all the specific reporting around Soto already makes me think this is going to happen pretty early in the offseason. I assume Preller wants to get it done so he can do his subsequent wheeling and dealing from there?

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/how-good-is-yoshinobu-yamamoto-a-dive-into-his-arsenal/

I'm not going to be torn up about Kantrovitz? Certainly not going to horsefeathers talk him, but IMO he's mostly just fine? - 2020 was a horsefeathering disaster. COVID hitting in your first year in a new org is absolutely a fair excuse, but it's going to end up as just a garbage draft. We're going to end up with Luke Little making an impact as a reliever approximately 4 years after the fact and nothing else. - 2021 looks pretty good. Wicks and Triantos are both borderline top 100 guys, though woth fairly limited ceiling, while Franklin and especially Gray have some potential to be guys still. That said look at that first round again. Colson Montgomery and Gavin Williams went immediately after Wicks, while Jackson Merrill and Carson Williams went like half a dozen picks later. Kantrovitz did well but let's not do backflips over this draft - 2022 again looks pretty good? On the one hand it's a HUGE feather in Dan's cap to pounce on Horton. On the other hand if he'd just gone chalk and taken Brooks Lee we wouldn't really be any worse off? What isn't up for debate is the later rounds. McGeary, Rujano, et al looks pretty inspired - 2023 is way too early to say. Matt Shaw's hot start was awesome, though a polished first round college bat should wreak havoc in A ball Like I'm certainly not rooting for him to take the Mets job, but if I were grading Kantrovitz I'd give him like a B+, and I'm not going to lose sleep over losing a B+ head of amateur scouting

This certainly isn't good news, but at the same time I'm not super worried about it? We got three years out of Breslow, so a lot of his processes and ideas and such should have matriculated through the org. He's a bright guy and I'm sure always learning, but I doubt at this point he has some "one weird trick" that's going out the door. There's also this, which IMO is a great point: Even if we pretend Breslow is the best pitch design guy in the league, there's probably value in bringing in someone from another smart org like Seattle or Tampa. Like for instance, the Cubs appear to be awesome at teaching/fixing sinkers, sliders, and cutters. But not so much curves and changeups. Adding a high level resource with expertise there on top of our sinker/slider factory might be the trick to reaching pitching Nirvana like the Rays. I will say, if Tommy Hottovy goes anywhere that's when I will be absolutely apoplectic. He is a guy who has the smarts necessary for a FO role AND ALSO can communicate these ideas in an actionable way to players AND ALSO can catch crap mid game and advise on on the fly adjustments. He's certainly the most valuable non-uniformed person in the org, and probably more valuable than most of our actual players. Early returns on Dustin Kelly are pretty glowing as well, but it'll take another year or two to be sure if he's on Tommy's level.

Honestly combined with how Wicks and Assad balled out to end the year I think Stroman opting in gives Jed tons of options. I see two major implications that would maybe not have seemed reasonable as recently as August: - The team should be extremely picky about what SP to add, to the point of potentially foregoing adding a starting pitcher at all. Like TT said, the need is not just any old SP, but a playoff caliber starting pitcher. We want that guy to pair with Steele to give us something resembling Wheeler/Nola. But like if that guy is not available, or he costs an absurd amount, just throw those resources at the offense or the bullpen. Jed has a lot of money and prospects to spend this winter, but he's probably got to scrimp somewhere. I'd say the SPs I'm into pursuing are Yamamoto, Glasnow, Skubal, the Mariners guys...and that might be it? (setting aside Ohtani, who's not a SP in the short term) - If the team does make a SP add, they can comfortably deal a SP or two. The team already has 7 guys I feel good about starting games next year (the four vets plus Assad/Brown/Wicks), with Horton probably being someone we're champing at the bit to see by June. There's also Smyly, Wesneski, and Kilian; three guys we don't want to see starting but who are probably comfortably better than replacement level (...maybe not "comfortably" in Kilian's case). As much as "you can never have too much pitching" that's a lot of pitching. It's probably a waste to not cash any of those chips in Also I think dealing Stroman would be a really easy to trade if need be. Phillies, Twins, Giants, Dodgers all seem like very reasonable destination. Plus some historically tight fisted teams like the Orioles, Marlins, and Dbacks might be down since it's just a one year deal. Red Sox make sense on paper too, though Stroman in Boston seems like a terrible idea.

Speier is extremely connected in Boston. This is probably done.

The rumor was roughly $200M. So they have to cut salary but not all the way to the bone. Trade Soto and let Lugo/Martinez walk and you're there. Though Preller does like to make big flashy moves so maybe he trades more than that to open up more FA options.

I don't know of a good leaderboard for 90th percentile exit velocity, but I'd guess that's still below MLB average. Probably something like 20th or 30th percentile? That said as a 20 year old that's going to naturally climb a bit more, probably get him within a stones throw of average. Gotta say those Alex Bregman comps from draft time don't look too crazy, at least offensively. Bregman was only ever a superstar level hitter thanks to the rabbit ball, but a ~125 wRC+ with a roughly 1:1 K:BB ratio would still be extremely fun to add to the lineup.

Like Rex and TT said, I think you have to bring Leiter to Arizona and see if rest/lab work/adding Dempster's little glove waggle/whatever can get his splitter back to 100%. He was such a weapon and cutting him saves you less than $1M vs. a league minimum arm. Similarly I would really try to keep potential impact guys like Burdi and Roberts on the 40 man this winter, particularly given that they have MiLB options. I expect the rotation depth to take a small hit via trade. I am assuming whatever the big trade is this winter one of Brown/Wicks/Assad is going the other way. I don't think that majorly impacts the above, but I would plan to keep one of the survivors from the above AND one of Wesneski/Kilian starting at Iowa until at least Memorial Day, which does put some limits on bullpen configuration. My bullpen going into next year would be CL - Adbert SU - Merryweather SU - Veteran FA MR - Cuas MR - Whichever "stuff monster" of Palencia/Little/Estrada is going best at the moment MR - Leiter or one of the injury comeback guys LRP - Smyly LRP - Assad/Thompson/Wesneski Ross seems to like high leverage long relievers, and I couldn't agree more, so I expect two long guys. This also leaves quite a bullpen at Iowa. That was a major issue this year is that Iowa just did not provide the bullpen reinforcements it was expected to back in March. If we need to play it tight with the 40 man over the winter to keep Iowa stocked with guys like Burdi and Roberts instead of Tyler Duffey and Jonathan Holder types, it's very worth it IMO.

If you go huge at DH, like Soto or Ohtani, I think you can do something more hail mary-ish at 1B like a Dalbec-Mervis competition. I'd probably just stick with Wisdom as the RHH half of that competition, but it's not crazy to bring in a guy who was pretty recently a tippy top prospect.

Are they reqlly hurting for his skillset? I posted this comparison in the LCS thread a week or two back: We've got defensively limited high power/low contact guys available. Like I guess we didn't have a LHH one (though Caissie's coming quickly) but I don't think that's what was holding the team back this season. Like I get Schwarber nostalgia, the scoreboard dong against the Cardinals is like a top 5 or 10 moment as a Cubs fan. But we don't need to conflate that with him being some sort of missing piece on the 2023 roster. If you're going to stare wistfully at the Phillies I think Harper, Wheeler or Alvarado deserve a much much much longer look.

Edit: Misread

With Statcast I don't think this is really true, and even if it is partially true we've got a very very good read on outfield defense at a minimum.

It's funny, a lot of fanbases try to argue their all or nothing guys (e.g. Gallo) are less valuable than WAR says. I think for the regular season, there's nothing being missed. Walks and dongs with literally nothing else of positive value just isn't a very good player. It's obviously a huge minus on defense, and because he hits for zero average (he had more dongs than singles most of the season), his offense isn't actually all that great. He also has graded out as a minus clutch hitter for his regular season career. I'd buy that he's got some secret sauce that helps him out in the playoffs, not a clutch gene but maybe like a predilection for feasting against the turbo sinkers you see all over the place in October. But especially now that he's making market rates I don't think he's a huge driver for getting a team into October.

I love this Polanco idea. Offensively he's not too dissimilar from Candelario, defensively you can get him in the lineup at 2nd or 3rd (and in a real pinch SS). His contract is two consecutive club options, whereas I think Candy might require a 3 or even 4 year deal. BBTV says it won't take much to get him, a prospect of consequence but nothing wild. Having an ability to get some quality LHH plate appearances in the infield somewhere besides 1B is a low key need. And currently the internal options on that front are just BJ Murray and Miles Mastrobuoni. I like both guys but hard to confidently count on either contributing in '24.

Yeah basically always take the under on a pitcher putting up a superstar level performance

Thankfully, the Cubs roster decisions are easy enough that they'll be based more on opening up spots for acquisition rather than finances. There are three buckets of players where you can make changes: Players with Option Decisions, Arbitration Eligible Players, and Pre-Arbitration players. The option decisions are pretty easy, Gomes and Hendricks are clearly worth picking up and Stroman is in control of his player option (and while maybe not the best thing its hardly a major problem). The mutual options for Boxberger and Bellinger are misleading. Mutual options are honestly just an accounting trick to defer money. They never get picked up because the odds of both sides being happy with the salary, and being happy enough to lock it in right at the start of the offseason, are basically nil. The arb guys are also thankfully not too heartburn inducing. Here is what MLB Trade Rumors projects everyone to make None of those salaries are all that onorous, so if Jed dumps anyone it will purely be about performance and the 40 man spot. But if Jed wants anyone's roster spot he can non-tender them in November no harm no foul. Lastly you have all the guys making league minimum. They can be dumped at basically any time. But because they make league minimum, the only reason to do so would be for those aforementioned 40 man roster spots. So speaking of the 40 man, by my count the team is currently at 46 players, and you probably want to get down to 35ish. There are 4 pending free agents in Bellinger, Boxberger, Canario, and Fulmer, which gets us to 42, and then Tyler Duffey and Shane Greene are extremely easy decisions to outright as well, which gets us to 40. From there Id expect another couple cuts, probably Jared Young and one or two of the injured relievers. And then trades will free up the last few spots (e.g. Brown, Alcantara, Canario). So all in all there's not really any painful decisions with the roster this winter. It's all about just adding talent.

AAV, and also likely further indication they expect Stroman to stick around. If you have Stroman and Hendricks both as pending FAs, you potentially need to replace 2 rotation spots, plus Smyly's swing role, next winter. The Cubs have enough promising kids that that might not be much of a problem, but it's still something you'd love to get ahead of if you can. And you definitely can't compound the issue by trading for a starter in their walk year, like a Glasnow or a Bieber, if you already have two guys walking out the door after the season.

This is obviously a "searching for silver linings" type of thought, but I do think there's merit there. Bringing in e.g. one of Seattle's top people would be a good way to identify other avenues for development.

I'm certainly open to arguments about certain guys being better equipped than others to handle the power pitching you see in the playoffs, but on a per plate appearance basis Morel and Wisdom outplayed Schwarber and Castellanos by a fair margin. Phillies Guys: 1391 PAs, 2.4 WAR, 76 Dongs, 114 wRC+ Cubs Guys: 731 PAs, 2.1 WAR, 49 Dongs, 115 wRC+ The Cubs have made some bad choices the last few years, but I'm pretty comfortable with those two not being around anymore.

Inducing soft contact isn't a very sticky skill for sure, but I think Hendricks has enough of a track record that we can feel relatively comfortable baking it into his projection. It's not a slam dunk given what he went through in '21/'22, but it feels reasonable to chalk that up to age/injury and think that post shoulder rehab (and with the accompanying velo boost) it's something he's regained. I'd expect Kyle to put up a relatively similar year to last year. Without context of the rest of the roster I think he's worth that $16M. That said, I agree that him plus Stroman on the roster is pretty messy, both for financial and future planning reasons. I think ideally we'd have a rotation spot dedicated to the kids so that we can give them runway to establish themselves. We also need a playoff caliber starter to pair with Steele. That's 6 starters, which isn't unreasonable and doesn't seem very likely My hope would be that Stroman just opts out. I don't think anyone actually buys that his 2nd half struggles were anything permanent, just like I don't think anyone actually bought that he had achieved a new level in the first half. You ding him some for durability sure, but he's more or less the same guy he's been for a while. Given what happened to Ohtani and Urias, I don't see why some team wouldn't give him ~3/$60. Even with his second half he's probably the #6 FA SP.

Had a chance to read Leighton's list this morning. Lot's of good stuff but good gracious this data on Caissie That is legitimate 80 grade power, and at 20/21 there might be more in the tank.