Bertz

To me the biggest wildcard is Morel. Can he be a viable everyday 3B if he just focuses there instead of also having to practice 5 other positions? It's IMO much more likely than shifting Madrigal over there was at this same time last year. But if Morel can just be your everyday 3B, the roster fits together better since tou don't have a dedicated DH. Then you can afford to have more specialized fits like Madrigal and Wisdom on the bench. If Morel's the 3B and we go get a 1B as expected, I think a bench of Madrigal, Wisdom, Amaya, Tauchman, Mastro checks pretty much every box except LHH power. And that could potentially be addressed by swapping in Mervis or someone else for one of the guys above. Morel at 3rd also has the added benefit of only needing to add one bat this winter, freeing up resources for the other holes on the roster. The other "if the season started today" scenario I'm curious about is Owen Caissie. It is very unlikely he cracks the roster out of ST, but given how much he dominated at AA and the PPI, if he comes into ST and balls out how willing are they to roster him? If Morel is no longer locked into the DH spot there's some potential runway there.

Yeah this was the biggest takeaway from putting this together. My guess is that the median offseason is one long term deal, one trade of major consequence, and then bench/relief help on 1-2 year deals. Something like Nola, Alonso, Robertson, and Candelario (if he can be had for two years, someone like Urshela if he can't). There's probably a plan or two where Jed does two long term deals. Like Yamamoto and a Soto trade/extension would be pretty hard to pass up. As would essentially anybody with Ohtani. But I'd guess Jed wants to be able to add someone substantial every winter while still leaving an avenue to reset the tax in '25 or '26.

Yeah if you look at Cots or RR he's already in there. That's part of why I did the exercise like I did because I wanted to build payroll from the ground up and not have to try and keep someone else's assumptions straight while making my own. Correct, from a luxury tax standpoint it's more or less considered that they already paid that money.

Definitely good call on budgeting several extra MLB salaries to account for people on the IL. Maybe call that another $5M? I think you're right about the buyouts too. I wonder if that changed with this CBA, because I swear it used to go the other way. But regardless browsing a couple Roster Resource pages I don't see them added, and it certainly helps so can't complain. I did remember the Player Benefits money, so we don't need to add that again. So we're looking at something a little closer to $30M under the tax. And yeah I think trying to put on my Jed hat I can see him reasoning his way to a pretty wide range of payrolls. I do imagine like you hit on it's player specific? E.g. he'll pass $277M but only for Ohtani. $257 but only for two of the primo guys or if he's able to nab several guys on 1 year deals. etc. Looking at it more and more I do think there's a pretty good chance Stroman gets dealt. He should still have modest surplus value, and freeing up his salary makes a lot of the scenarios we could dream up a lot less tight to pull off.

Assuming Stroman opts in, I'd be very surprised if they add someone from the Giolito tier of FAs. I think with how well Assad and Wicks showed out in the second half, plus having Smyly and possibly Wesnesky in the bullpen, there's not a ton of need for pure depth. I think Jed takes a swing at one of Yamamoto/Nola/Montgomery and if he fails there turns to the trade market. But the goal is certainly a playoff caliber starter IMO. On Yoshi specifically, he'd be my top target in free agency this winter by a wiiiiiiidddddeeee margin.

Some immediate reactions/takeaways: - It seems pretty likely the team exceeds the LT this year. $34M is not a ton to play with given how much action is being floated. If Stroman gets traded early in the offseason though, that'd be a canary in the coal mine for Jed planning to stay under - The threshold where payroll starts directly impacting the draft is $277M for '24. For this reason, I'd say that the max payroll you should reasonably expect heading into this season is ~$265M (Jed, and Theo before him, likes to leave $10Mish for in season and TDL moves) - Based on where '25 and '26 net out right now, I'd be very shocked if there are more than two long term (i.e. 3+ year) signings this winter. If Jed commits more than $50-60M in long term deals this winter, doing a luxury tax reset in the medium term gets really tough, and unfortunately based on PTR's history we know the team is not going to be a perennial luxury tax payer - I wonder if we see any attempt to extend Steele this winter/next spring. He's the only guy on the current roster slated to make all that much in arb over the next few years. If you lock him up, even without buying a ton of FA years, you mostly insulate yourself from rising arb commitments locking down your payroll like what happened during the last window

This morning, MLB Trade Rumors released their arbitration projections. These are historically extremely accurate, so we now can put together a good snapshot of the team's payroll ahead of what we expect to be a very active winter. A few notes before we lead off: - I sourced data primarily from Roster Resource, with 2024 arb #s from MLBTR and some details on Hendricks/Gomes' options from Cot's contracts. I'm just one dude though so I may have fat fingered something along the way (edit: TT also caught a few process errors I initially made and have now fixed) - I'm only looking at luxury tax dollars. Now that Marquee is fully stood up and attendance is back at pre-pandemic levels I assume LT dollars matter much more than actual cashflow like it did from 2015-2019 - I'm not assuming any non-tenders, even if they may seem obvious - I used the aforementioned MLBTR arb projections that just came out for 2024, and then assumed a 50% annual raise for each guy's subsequent turns through arbitration (its a rough estimate, but works well in the aggregate) - I also looked ahead to 2025 and 2026. It seems very likely that the team is going to pass the luxury tax this winter, however based on what happened at the tail end of the last competitive window it's almost a certainty that Jed won't be allowed to exceed the luxury tax three years straight. Given that 2026 is also the last year under the current CBA, I think it's likely that Jed will plan to dip under in '26, so you want to be mindful of how many dollars you add to that year this early Without further ado: 2024 Payroll 2024 Players Definitely under contract: $100.8M (6 players) - Dansby, Seiya, Nico, Taillon, Happ, and Smyly are all written in stone 2024 Players in Arb: ~$16M (9 players) - No one is slated to make a ton, though I do wonder if Steele's projected number is a bit low. Guys who do well in awards/all star consideration tend to get paid handsomely Filling out the Roster: ~$34M - 11 league min guys at ~750k each, 7 IL spots at ~750k each (i.e. when you put someone on the IL, you have to call up a minor leaguer. Both guys are making MLB salaries during that time), 14 minor leaguers on the 40 man getting ~150K each, player benefits at ~$17M, and ~$1.7M to the pre-arb bonus pool Additional commitments: $13.3 - Paying Mancini, Barnhart, and Bote to stay home All told we are looking at a total of $164.1M before option decisions on Stroman (player, $23.7M), Hendricks (Club, $15M after the buyout), and Gomes (Club, $5M after the buyout). Since all three of those guys look likely to be retained, our estimated total before trades or non-tenders is about $207.8M, leaving $29M in payroll room before the first Luxury Tax threshold of $237M 2025 Payroll The club has a ton of commitments coming off the books prior to 2025: Stroman - $23.7M Hendricks - $16.5M Smyly - $9.5M Mancini - $7M Gomes - $6M Barnhart - $3.5M Bote - $3M Total - $69.7M Arb raises for guys already in arb for 2024 shouldn't be crazy, maybe with the exception of Steele if he keeps it up. Using my 50% arb estimate and subtracting out the FA's and dead money above puts the starting 2025 payroll at approximately $145-150M, plus whatever multi-year commitments Jed makes this winter 2026 Payroll Codi Heuer is currently the only FA heading into the 2026 offseason (and frankly given his gruesome injury I'd be surprised if he's not nontendered well before that point). That means payroll opening the 2026 offseason will be more or less 2025 payroll plus/minus any changes to arb commitments. The arb bill in '26 currently looks pretty hefty, probably something like $15M on top of where the 2025 nets out? That'd put the projected the payroll to open the 2026 offseason at something like $165M plus whatever multi-year commitments are made between now and then, though obviously the error bars are super wide this far out

Yeah Alonso is not going to cost PCA. I don't even think Soto would honestly. I'd guess one of our ready/near ready SPs in Assad/Wicks/Brown (these guys will be very popular...whatever the big trade is this winter, expect one of those three in it), plus a bat from the 5-15 range of our top prospect list (Caissie, Canario, Triantos, etc.).

Yeah I think I'd sign a veteran who could close on day 1 if needed (again, David Robertson is perfect), and then make a Cuas-like trade for someone we'd intend to make the opening day bullpen but could go to Iowa if needed. But for example with the second lefty in the pen, I'd much rather have the choice to cycle through Hughes, Little, and someone from Iowa like Horn than be locked into a pure LOOGY like Brand Hand. Someone like Bummer (even coming off a bad year) is a completely different conversation, but those "safe" boring vets are potential landmines IMO.

Third Base is presumably where Jed was referring to when he said they were going to try and give Morel runway to focus on just one position. I hope that works because the market there really sucks. I'd give Candelario a really healthy 2 year deal if that would work, but otherwise I dont want any of these guys (and there's not really many others of note you didn't touch on...Gio Urshela?). I think if there's one position of need I'm not especially concerned about Jed punting on its 3rd. On the bullpen, I don't want to fall into the trap of fighting last year's battles. Yes, a few weeks ago things got so bad we were desperate for anyone decent to throw some innings. That said, even for the pen's problems it's too good to sign cromulent veterans just for stability. Brad Hand, Brent Suter, and others of that ilk are highly likelyto blow up in our faces like Brad Boxberger did last year. Either aim high (I still love David Robertson for instance), or use trades to bring in guys you can option to the minor leagues. Locking a roster spot down with mediocre situational relievers is the absolute worst way to fortify the current bullpen.

Yeah there's Turner, all their various star-caliber rentals, the pitchers they reclaimed like Heaney and Anderson last year, etc. I think Justin Turner's pretty much the only non superstar they've gone more than ~3 years on in a long while. You do, to Squally's point, have to have a solid baseline of talent (both majors and minors) on hand to operate this way, but I think at the moment the org actually does. I'd be very reticent this winter or next to give out any medium length contracts to 3ish WAR players right now. Go short term or go star hunting IMO. If/when the farm gets back to a sad state like it was in 2018 again we can reverse course but for right now I'd hate to sign e.g. a Jordan Montgomery

I like Alonso a lot, enough that I probably would at least consider giving up something like Morel, but yeah I wouldn't be keen on extending him. I actually think in general I want the org to be more comfortable just having guys for a year or two and then saying goodbye. I want them to do it now with Bellinger and I'd like them to do it again next year with whoever is at 1B (unless it's Soto, extend the horsefeathers out of Soto). This is IMO one of the many smart things the Dodgers do.

I'm old enough to remember Alex Rodriguez, fresh off a gold glove, moving down the defensive spectrum because it's what his new team preferred and he was already being paid as if he was a shortstop

You think the Padres would want like 3 or 4 outfielders in a Soto trade?

One other bat I have thought a lot about is Rhys Hoskins. Coming off his injury, he seems very ripe for a pillow contract like Bellinger got last winter. The Phillies, with their glut of unathletic corner guys, don't seem likely to retain him (maybe the QO him and flip him, but I don't think they keep him). He'd be a quality starting caliber 1B, and on a one year deal that would give Jed another year to evaluate Caissie et al before committing to locking down 1B long term.

The difference between a 1B and COFer is half a win a year, and that's assuming he is similarly below average defensively on the dirt. That adds up, especially over a long term deal, which is why I don't expect Juan would make the move before getting paid. But for a team, that half a win can be more than made up for by the specifics of their roster. The Cubs have corner outfielders coming out the ears, so Soto staying in the OF rather than shifting to 1B would 1000% be about deference to the desires of a superstar, and not about the pure baseball decision-making.

I wonder if Soto would play 1B post-extension. I doubt he would want to before he gets paid, since even a blah defensive outfielder gets paid more than a 1B, but once he's got his half-billion I'd like to think he wouldn't care. You can make it work with him still as an OFer obviously, but it becomes a perfect fit if he shifts. On the relief front, I expect real resources allocated there but not a name-brand closer. Something like bringing David Robertson back plus grabbing someone they feel like they can level up via the pitch lab a la Cuas (more substantial than Cuas though, TT's names feel closer to the right tier).

Glasnow especially feels like a name to really keep an eye on. With the way the Rays set up his extension ($5M in '23, $25M in '24) they're clearly going to trade him. I expect that Jed will get the impact SP in FA (Yamamoto seems pretty perfect?), but if they go the trade route Glasnow would make a ton of sense. Jed would LOVE an ace on a one year deal, and his durability issues are mitigated by the Cubs' young pitching depth.

Varland seems to more or less be the Twins version of Wrsneski. It would be nice to return the favor. The Cubs have also been weirdly bad on Sundays, hopefully that starts turning around too.

Wesneski's issues are pretty reminiscent of Alzolay's a few years ago. Presumably the solution is pretty similar and revolve around the cutter. Give him a month down at Iowa and call him back up in June to give Steele a breather. Boxberger's gotta go, or at least get IL'd. He's got enough command and funk to be pretty successful at 93, but there's a ton of 90-91 from him right now. I understand wanting an adult down in the pen, but he's throwing BP right now.

Cubs have won two in a row The star of last night's game was Chris Morel, the second most positive person in the world after... Today, Hayden Wesneski toes the rubber. After a rough start he's on a bit of a roll, so he's likely to be extra animated on the mound Joe Ryan is starting for the Twins. He's a boring finesse pitcher who gets soft contact, so you know Jed's going to watch with interest Go Cubs, with 3 in a row

Nico no longer day-to-day

Yeah that Denver one is almost as egregious as the Carolina one

Let me just check these vs. LHP numbers... Also looks like they worked their pen pretty hard against the Padres. Duran is their only good reliever who tonight wouldn't be his 3rd in a row or 3rd of 4.