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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    There's an argument that over the next ten years as RSN contracts expire and cord cutting hits its end game that most of MLB's revenue will be national. With more of an NFL-shaped revenue setup an NFL-shaped cap and floor system might make sense. But like that's certainly not what's being argued here.
  2. Bertz
  3. Bertz
    It's not, this is 100 level economics.
  4. Bertz
    Rob Manfred worrying about the second biggest market in the sport getting good fun marketable players while simultaneously giving a nation of 125M a reason to start tuning into all their games Baseball's boned!
  5. Bertz
    Hopefully this dislodges things. Then again there's no real reason the bats shouldn't have been moving by now so who knows. Baseball executives will do absolutely anything possible to put off making moves. That's why for instance making the trade deadline later is easily the dumbest thing I regularly see otherwise smart people suggest. So we should start seeing movement. But between the holidays and the next Diamond hearing and the arb deadline Baseball has three ready-made excuses lined up for the next three weeks. Imanaga’s posting deadline and accompanying logistics (I assume he's currentlt stateside but would like to get home by New Year's?) will keep his market moving at the very least.
  6. Bertz
  7. Bertz
    Yeah the NL Champs had Tommy Pham hitting cleanup for them and their #3 starter had a 5.72 ERA. I don't understand how people still don't understand how random the baseball playoffs are
  8. Bertz
  9. Bertz
    The meltdowns this is going to cause are going to be pretty great
  10. Bertz
    Yeah that's fair. Dodgers especially might be more "if not Yamamoto then Cease" than "Yamamoto or bust". It'd be cool if we knew that Jesus Luzardo and/or Framber Valdez are definitely available. That'd give enough chairs for everybody to end up with one unless the Angels truly plan to pull down Snell.
  11. Bertz
    We know, you mention this every time they're brought up.
  12. Bertz
    As gross as it is, we should all be rooting for the Yankees. The Mets, and increasingly it sounds like the Dodgers also, are not planning on going big game hunting at SP if they miss on Yamamoto.
  13. Bertz
    I believe Theo confirmed pretty emphatically that they viewed the day games as a disadvantage on a baseball level. I think keeping the Friday/Saturday day games and otherwise operating as other franchises do (i.e. Sundays and getaway days) is probably the sweet spot.
  14. Bertz
    Would hopefully imply he's close-ish to signing somewhere (by Christmas?), and mercifully open up the rest of the market
  15. Bertz
    I think extremely highly of Tommy Hottovy, but I'm definitely starting to notice a pattern with the SP they bring in of really slow starts. Taillon, Stroman, even going back to Darvish all of these guys were a mess for their first half a season before getting things back on track. The Cubs' system seems to let them work pretty on the fly with relievers but there seem to be some initial growing pains with starters and as we look to be more competitive they'll have to shorten that timeframe.
  16. Bertz
    I think talent/production wise they all look pretty similar. I want Imanaga the most, I love watching changeup/splitter guys, but clearly there's a little more risk than with the other two since he hasn't pitched stateside.
  17. Bertz
    Probably not? He's likely looking at Taillon money, and I think that puts him in a weird middle area the Cubs likely won't be shopping in. It seems like they are going to look at the guys a tier up from that (Montgomery/Imanaga/Snell) and/or guys who can be had on one year deals (Bieber via trade, maybe someone like James Paxton or Sean Manaea in FA?). With their cadre of young pitching, the Cubs are in a position to bring in legitimate impact or short term guys who won't block anyone. I think from what Jed and Carter have said in between will largely be off the table.
  18. Bertz
    That's a really good article. Nice find. I think what I saw from a Cleveland specific writer last week when that court date got pushed, and is backed up by this from ESPN, is that things are actually looking pretty decent for 2024. Diamond's going to pay most of their rights for 2024 and then dissolve. So it's afterwards where there's massive uncertainty. For us hoping to pick all the fat off of Cleveland's roster it probably doesn't change much, since Bieber is only on a one year deal and Naylor doesn't have guaranteed money for '25. It's more for anyone hoping that e.g. the Rangers or Angels keep away from Jordan Montgomery that it might be a very big deal.
  19. Bertz
  20. Bertz
    Their leaderboards have a ton of stuff, which is great that it's available but can make things hard to find Leaders -> Pitching -> The year you want At the very top is a bunch of filters: Starter/Reliever, lefty righty, etc. Between that and the actual list of players you'll see a smaller box, and that has tabs for "Stats" (normal stuff you'd look up) "Pitch Level Data" (velocity, chase rate, etc.) and "Pitch Modeling". Stuff+ lives in that pitch modeling section. It's a bit silly how tucked away it is. Feels a bit like Dennis Duffy's coffee vending machine.
  21. Bertz
    Fangraphs has them, but annoyingly not on individual player pages. What I normally do is go to the leaderboard, go to Pitch Modeling, and then filter to get the team I want https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=36&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=17&qual=20
  22. Bertz
    Between this and all the deals he signed last winter I'm more and more convinced Preller does not expect to be running the Padres for more than another 2-3 years
  23. Bertz
    It's wild that the position player market still isn't moving. Like I expected pitchers to largely wait for Yamamoto, but I figured we'd be seeing some major movement with the Hoskins and Garvers of the world by now. But as far as I can tell Candelario and Gurriel are the only guys to sign since Ohtani?
  24. Bertz
    Not the most detailed look but appears that ZiPS still loves Bieber
  25. Bertz
    I actually assume Smyly's time at Driveline is very much about "let's make myself the best reliever I can be." Last year after being demoted to the bullpen he sat 93-95 and generally shoved (2.51 ERA/3.28 xFIP as a reliever). If fully dedicating himself over the offseason to short relief for 60-80 innings he might get up another tick to 94-96 and really become a weapon.
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