Bertz

The other side of the coin is this https://blogs.fangraphs.com/for-bellinger-and-paredes-it-pays-to-pull/ tl;dr being that xstats don't generally look at spray angle, and Bellinger is very much an outlier there. If he just naturally has a crazy rate of pulled fly balls, he doesn't need light tower power to rack up dongs. But yeah, the preponderance of evidence is on Bellinger being more good than great offensively going forward. That doesn't justify substantial money at 1B, and while attrition can certainly hit our outfielder and force Bellinger into a more valuable position, $150M+ is way too much for that insurance policy IMO.

There's definitely a lot of that that happens with the Statcast xstats, but in this specific case with how universally the comp list took a step back and with Petriello very specifically looking at his 2-strike approach it feels pretty hard to poke holes in it?

Really good look at Bellinger. Tl;dr is he improved a lot but he doesn't really have a prayer at sustaining that 140 wRC+

Yeah Wicks had a 16.3% strikeout rate, a good-but-not-elite 47% groundball rate, and has below average fastballs by any objective measure. Like we all love him, but there's a very good chance he ends up being more or less Kyle Freeland or something similarly unexciting.

Hate to say it but this has me kind of wondering about Davis too

Wow, expect multiple trades this winter I guess

Being like "yeah but what else did they do" beyond a hypothetical Juan Soto trade has some real "In six games" energy

If you read Passan's article this AM or Kevin Acee's from last week the vibe I get is that the ask on Soto will actually be two pre-arb SPs. Looking at their depth chart, they desperately need innings after losing Lugo and Martinez (in addition to Snell). So something like Wicks & Wesneski or Brown & Assad would be the main part of a Soto trade. I'm sure there will be other pieces (Mervis makes a lot of sense?) but I increasingly wonder if the Morel/Caissie/Alcantara tier of bats can go untouched in this specific deal. That said it would force Jed to further shore up SP this winter. Maybe that's a Morel to Seattle trade. Maybe it's a 2nd FA starter acquisition, someone in that like Kenta Maeda/Kyle Gibson tier.

The Orioles had a real monkey's paw situation where they begged for Angelos to stop being so hands on and forcing their FO to do dumb crap. They eventually got their wish, but from that point on the cash mostly dried up. They haven't had a payroll north of $100M since 2018. So I mean never say never with the ownership class but I have a hard time seeing how a new owner could be any worse than what Baltimore is currently getting on that front.

One of my personal baseball truisms is that age doesn't really matter for pitchers. Like if you have two identical pitchers, one 25 and one 35, I think their short and medium term (let's say < 3 year) outlooks are largely the same. But like even if that’s true (and I think I'm in the minority in this belief), I'm not sure how well that idea holds up for a 19 year old? So a case like Ferris is interesting. It does sort of feel like he just needs 18-24 months to build up his strength (to improve his velo) and get some reps (to improve his command and tighten up his breaking stuff). We've seem with e.g. Jordan Wicks that the velo bump doesn't always come, but when comparing a 19 year old to a 22 year old this might be where age actually matters. I think if we had more at the lower levels of the farm I'd be pretty okay with Ferris as trade bait. But given that SB and especially Myrtle Beach look kind of sad next year, guys like Ferris and Gray and Rojas take on a bit of an outsized role in the org's health.

I don't actually see Carlos Santana as a fit. I think there's a certain threshold under which you just say "Welp, we're not addressing 1B this winter" and Santana is very much on the wrong side of the line. He is legitimately a worse offensive option than Eric Hosmer or Trey Mancini were at this same time last year (he generates a bit more WAR because he's actually a snazzy defender at 1B). There's some of that with Kenta Maeda, but it comes from a more positive place. I've mentioned a few times before I love the crop of back end starters on the market this winter: Maeda, Nick Martinez, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, James Paxton, Michael Lorenzen etc. There's some space to really clean up with vets on 1 or 2 year deals. But I don't think that's an area the team should really be playing in unless A) the guy is very comfortable with swing-man duty (as you alluded to with Manaea) or B) Jed deals away multiple young starters. We're thankfully in a position where we don't need much help just covering innings, we need impact.

Smyly's written in pen, at least for opening day. He was very good as a reliever last year, provides some emergency SP depth, and is owed almost $10M. Conversely I think both Leiter and Cuas are likely to make the roster but not total locks. So then there's two questions: 1) how many resources do you allocate to the pen and 2) do you want to reserve a dedicated spot for the Iowa crew, or rely on them just as depth? My preference would be one pretty certain late inning reliever, David Robertson being my favorite, and then leaving a dedicated spot for the youths. Jed's recent comments at the GM's meetings make me think he might go the opposite direction.

Goes to show I should have checked instead of assuming since it's 3-4 hours from here to the West Coast a much further flight would hold onto most of that.

I do sort of wonder if him being a longtime Angel will hurt the Dodgers. Like Ohtani very much seems like a type to go out and conquer new worlds type. Moving an hour up the coast may not be enough of a change for his big foray into free agency? I do expect Shohei to end up on the West Coast ultimately. Every team is going to be offering him the world, if you don't have to leave any money or competitive aspirations on the table why not choose somewhere that knocks 4 hours off of every trip to/from Japan?

Even assuming he gets that extra option, I think if you made me put odds on prospect most likely to get traded I'd choose Canario. He's reportedly not great in centerfield ("fine for now" seems to be the consensus), and doesn't have big time splits. The lack of splits is good for his prospects of ending up an everyday player, but bad for finding him plate appearances in April of '24. So you've got a good-not-great prospect who's more or less major league ready without a clear path to MLB playing time. And on top of that he's got better prospects not that far behind him. More or less textbook trade bait IMO.

Does Chase Strumpf have kompromat on everyone who writes about the Cubs? It's been clear he's a non-prospect since at least mid '22 and yet he still gets brought up as if he's a thing As to the topic at hand, I think I'd consider Aliendo and Franklin but ultimately do nothing. The fact that the Cubs added Vazquez last week but no others at the same time makes me think that's ultimately the plan

Yeah I think if they sign Ohtani they need to save cash elsewhere, and if you trade for Alonso or Soto it seems pretty certain Wicks or Brown are going the other way. In that case you'd love to have a backfill. Either way you make the move. Since trading Morel for pitching would be something you could do that doesn't have any dependencies elsewhere, it might happen pretty quick.

He also threw out the possibility of Morel being involved in a young player swap akin to the Varsho/Moreno swap last year instead of being traded for someone in their walk year like Alonso or Soto. I'd assume a pitcher from e.g. Seattle or Detroit would be most likely but curious what else they might be considering.

Floro is a good reliever in the right price range, but as more or less a righty specialist I don't think there's a fit. Cuas is slated to fill that same role, with much better stuff, with minor league options. I know Cuas didn't make a ton of fans last season but they basically remade him on the fly Yuki Matsui I can get behind though. Even though he'll probably require a richer contract than Jed normally hands out to relievers, his combo of funk, command, and that nasty splitter look like a high end setup arm.

Hoskins called out in the Athletic this AM https://theathletic.com/5054493/2023/11/12/cubs-rhys-hoskins-christopher-morel-james-triantos

This is something I've been thinking about for a bit, and sort of came up today in the offseason thread. There's a pretty clear dividing line with position players available this winter. Ohtani, Soto, Alonso, Bellinger, and to a lesser extent Matt Chapman are the big boys. However I think everyone agrees that we need to add two bats this winter, so who do you like as the "other" bat? Here's a rundown of some options, guys who play 1B/3B/DH and don't seem primed to make more than ~$15M Rhys Hoskins Pros: He probably only wants a one year deal to re-establish value and get back on the market. Pre-injury Hoskins was a pretty consistently safe bet for a wRC+ in the 120-130 range Cons: That's a pretty major injury he's coming off of, and the Phillies made no effort to resign him. That probably has more to do with their roster than Rhys, but it's still something to consider Jorge Polanco (trade) Pros: He plays 2B/3B, but hits like a low end 1B. He's a switch hitter, more athletic than anyone else on this list, and he's got a team option for '25 Cons: Lots of injuries. He's been solid at 3B in SSS, but he's had a fairly limited run there and obviously 2B is spoken for here. While he won't cost a ton, he will require some trade assets to acquire Jeimer Candelario Pros: Already successfully integrated with the team this summer. Can switch between 1B/3B seamlessly based on our needs Cons: Feels like in a FA class this shallow he's going to get a 3 or 4 year deal, and while he fits the roster like a glove today his tweener status might be annoying a year from now Jorge Soler Pros: Some quality nostalgia from a quality lefty-mashing DH. His '23 was a step up from prior years but most of the stuff under the hood does look sustainable Cons: He was more or less replacement level in '21-'22. Given that he opted out He seems poised to get a multi-year deal Brandon Belt Pros: He's not the borderline star he was when he was younger, but on a pure offensive basis might still be the best option on this list Cons: Contact and platoon issues grow as he gets older. Mostly DH'd last year, and I'm not sure if that was in deference to Vladito or because he can't play 1B well anymore Mitch Garver Pros: Lefty masher, but still pretty good at hitting righties as well. Can nominally catch as well, so if you want to play late game matchups and get some offense behind the plate he opens some fun things tactically Cons: His ability to catch might be a negative if he insists on doing a ton of it. He has not played much 1B despite it feeling like a natural way to get his bat in the lineup, so not sure if he has some issues there. His postseason heroics may have bought him a 3rd year on his contract. Durability issues, even in '23 where he wasn't catching as much Justin Turner Pros: TT threw the "professional hitter" label at him in another thread, and he's more or less a textbook example. There's a lot of swing and miss on this list but not from Turner. Probably only requires a one year deal. You wouldn't run him out there every day, though looks like he can still fake it at 3B (and 2B?) Cons: While he gets to his offense in a very different way, as a RHH 1B/DH/emergency 3B with a bat 10-20% better than average, is he that different from Patrick Wisdom? He's also at an age where he could really fall off the cliff in a hurry Any others we should look at? I tend to want a compliment to the other bat. So like Hoskins or Garver if we go Ohtani/Soto/Bellinger or Polanco if we end up with Pete Alonso. Brandon Belt with Matt Chapman maybe? (Please don't sign Matt Chapman, Jed)

Yeah the data coming out makes it look like Yamamoto is better than Imanaga, but not by nearly enough to justify getting ~2.5x the cash. The scouting-forward stuff seems to more affirm where the projected price tags are.

I'd take #2 but choose a different bat from that Candelario/Turner tier (Hoskins probably).

So....many...ellipses....