Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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How about this one? Cubs get: Jesus Luzardo, Tanner Scott, and Josh Bell Marlins get: Morel, Wicks, Alcantara, and a fourth piece of substance (Wesneski, Triantos, Mervis, Palencia, etc. depending on what they're feeling) Cubs do some one stop shopping and get a frontline SP, closer and other bat for under $30M. This lets Jed really slowplay the market from here to finish building out the team, while the Marlins get at least two immediate MLB contributors including that that offensive shot in the arm they've desperately been seeking. They also get out from Bell's contract.
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The question on the pitching front is how realistically available are some of these names we've heard a little bit about. Framber Valdez and Tarik Skubal for instance are better than any FA SP that is or was on the market this winter (no, I'm not forgetting about Yamamoto). Jesus Luzardo is comparable to the three lefties on the market right now and will make about as much over the next three years as any of the FAs will make per annum. I'm not too worried about Manaea or James Paxton being the sole guy. Jed's far too risk averse for that. Also if you read the article those names were brought up in more of a "these guys are also Boras clients" way than "these are the guys Jed's actually chasing" way. The entire theme of the article is that the offseason goes through Boras. I am getting a little worried that we are just going to re-up with Stroman though.
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Per Mooney
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I wonder if Amed Rosario would play 3B here? It's probably a no but: - After his down 2023 and given he is only 28 he's certainly looking for just a one year deal - He's more or less played himself off SS, but learned 2B basically on the fly with the Dodgers and was very good. He doesn't have a cannon for an arm but should have plenty for 3B - Offensively he's basically a less outlier-y Nick Madrigal. Plus contact, lots of chase, not a ton of slug, but also not a guy with so little power that teams literally play their outfield in - He's fast and mashes lefties, so even if he's not a starting caliber player he has skills that lend themselves well to a bench role Now why it may not work: - He's never actually played 3B. And while the numbers say he's no longer a shortstop, he might be reticent to actually concede that just yet because it lowers the cap on what kind of money he can make - While not as extreme as Nick Madrigal, he sort of fits the mold of Nick Madrigal in that he's contact over power. And we already *know* Madrigal is a whiz at 3B. This might be mystery box thinking on my part - He'd ostensibly be the 3rd bat. And the cost might not make sense for a guy you think probably solves 3B but you're not super sure
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This feels right. I expect Jed is angling for the low end of door #2 or door #3, but it just takes one of the Angels/Rockies/Nats to cave in and Boras to get what he wants. I'll also say if Boras does agree to the third type of deal my confidence that Cody's Renaissance is for real will go up a little bit.
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Fun fact, Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections have Imanaga as a better pitcher than Yamamoto on a per inning basis. I've been beating the Imanaga drum almost all offseason. I think every single mock I've done included him or Glasnow. I'm still mostly feeling good about this offseason and have been rolling my eyes at the fanbases histrionics, but if Jed misses on Shota I think that's when I join the masses and start getting pretty nervous. His major wart is he's given up a ton of dongs, but it seems to be a simple case of having a fastball that is better suited for the top of the zone than the bottom, while Japanese baseball is still mostly in its pound the knees / groundballs über alles phase. The velocity is not ideal given the other soft tossers we have, but then again every time push has come to shove Jed has backed off on that requirement. Much in the same way that I keep saying I'm going to grow up and stop eating poptarts for breakfast every morning and then drop that resolution when I run into the slightest inconvenience.
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It's sticky because teams could potentially use it to hammer lower and mid-tier players, and as we know they don't need any additional help there. The two ideas I like are: - A transaction freeze over the holidays and a bit beyond. Something like the end of the winter meetings to 1/15 - An offseason trade deadline. Since it's not a signing deadline it shouldn't be anti-labor, but by closing off a bunch of avenues to change your team it should force execs to actually pick a lane and commit Neither of those would get us an NFL/NBA style bonanza, but would I think make most offseasons snappier akin to last winter.
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I actually mostly agree on the offensive needs thing, we don't ideally want another RHH who's vulnerable to top of zone fastballs (that can be mitigated with our 2nd hitter though). But total package wise Chapman and Bellinger are very comparable players. Bellinger will get more years because he's younger, but you're expecting ~3.5 WAR from either in 2024.
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Cubs 2024 prospect depth chart in AAA & AA
Bertz replied to Stratos's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
- I would not expect Horton to start at Iowa. I think both for weather reasons and because I think they are going to want a deep well stocked Iowa pitching staff that will cause some trickle down. I don't think he'll be at Tenn forever but I would expect timing similar to Ben Brown last year. - I'd expect at least one, maybe both of Bote/Strumpf to finally get the ax. With Murray and McGeary coming up and Mastro potentially coming back down there's going to be a squeeze on that Iowa IF - Aliendo probably has to re-do Tenn, since one of the few things Jed has done this winter is add catchers on MiLB deals - There are several SPs who seem on the verge of being forced to the pen: Kohl Franklin, Riley Thompson, and Caleb Kilian. Porter Hodge got moved to the bullpen late last year but not sure if that's totally permanent. These are guys I could see becoming MLB relevant *very* quickly post conversion - He's more on the Christian Franklin level of prospect, but Ezequial Pagan was part of that SB -> Tenn end of season pipeline and is certainly worth paying attention to as well -
Generally the really really good QB prospects are known multiple years out. Like Wrigley said there are exceptions like Burrow, but usually the super exciting guys are not popup prospects.
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Thinking through this a bit more, in my mind: - You've got to pull down one of the lefties or one of the more primo trade targets. I like Bieber and think he's become underrated but you can't grab him and then declare mission accomplished on the SP front - You pretty much need to pull down one of Chapman/Bellinger. CF, 3B, and #5 SP are spots on the roster that I look at and think "It'll probably be fine?" But one of the costs of foregoing a true star like Soto is you can't have two many of those landmine type positions lying around. If you're not addressing the pitching one you damn sure need to address one, ideally both, of the offensive ones - This would seem to increase the odds Morel sticks around? Most of the hypothetical Morel trades were to add a second, less expensive SP. Not that you can't do Cease, Valdez, or Luzardo and include Morel, but it seems much less likely than just signing Imanaga or Montgomery - Adding two RPs makes it that much more likely one of them is like a boring Phil Maton/Brent Suter type. Let me just go on record right now about how much I hate adding that type of reliever this winter. Relief help should either be impact types or have minor league options, no exceptions
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You would presume if Tommy is saying this on the radio then this is the plan. A bit of a shame because I have preferred a two SP plan since we missed on the elite bats.
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So uhhhh who's going to sign all these free agents?
Bertz replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Sounds like they are probably gonna be wrapped up after they close a deal with Joc Pederson. -
Yeah I think even if Hader gets to a price where Jed can stomach the dollars he's not going to give up the pick. There was talk Jed is willing to stretch out of his RP comfort zone in deference to Counsell. But I think that tops out at $20-40M for Robert Stephenson or Jordan Hicks or someone like that.
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I mean your Day 1 qualifier changes quite a bit. If you take that away I think most signings we've had word of well ahead of time. Like last year Taillon was more or less out of nowhere but I think everyone else we had pretty decent runway knowing they were being pursued.
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Thinking out loud, if you pulled down Alonso, Imanaga, and traded for Jansen with Boston covering ~half his salary, you would have filled the three biggest holes on the roster with legit 1st division talents. You'd also, we suspect, have $20-30M more to play with. You could at that point more confidently play a game of chicken with Boras for Chapman/Bellinger, do the Bieber/Naylor deal, or build Counsell a bullpen of doom with e.g Robertson + Stephenson.
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I believe Sharma mentioned him on TV over the holiday and it was the first time I'd heard his name basically since Stearns took over. He is the one guy who seems realistically available in that hitter-tier in between Soto/Ohtani and like Rhys Hoskins.
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Once again someone who's in the know is like "oh yeah they're definitely gonna make some trades". And this time specifically it's mentioned on the offensive side. Really curious if it's the usual suspects we've been discussing, or if it's anyone a little more off the radar.
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I think a lot of the conservative action around not starting high pick QBs early is worry they'll get themselves killed. Williams/Maye are pretty polished, plus the unique circumstances of the Bears' roster would have this as one of the best rookie QB supporting casts of all time. I'm very understanding of giving rookies ~6 weeks behind a vet before handing them the keys, but I don't think it'll be necessary here.
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So uhhhh who's going to sign all these free agents?
Bertz replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Move the Reds from "probably done" to "definitely done" -
I still tend to think the team would have crossed the LT threshold last year if the plan was not to this year. The marginal value of even just an additional ~$10M was extremely high last offseason. At the deadline another 3-5 would have made a more substantial relief upgrade pretty easy. Even for someone as conservative as Jed I don't think you leave that on the table just for the ~20% chance you come down with Ohtani.
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Video: Cubs Top Prospects: BJ Murray Jr
Bertz replied to Aram Leighton's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I wasn't really buying Murray this time last year. As you get into in the video the tools are all average or a smudge below, and I chalked up the sterling production to beating up on kids. Most reports also had him fringey at best at 3rd. But this year he carried his offense up to AA without missing a beat, SUBSTANTIALLY dropped his groundball rate without adding any swing and miss, and now his defense is viewed as pretty average at 3B. All that from a true switch hitter (he has negligible lefty/righty splits) and I'm really big on Murray. -
Jed's done a really good job of bringing in well credentialed voices from multiple different orgs and GM trees. Like I'd love to poach some Twins/Mariners folks at some point but broadly I would be surprised if the org falls way behind in any area given how actively they are cycling in new blood from smart orgs. The Theo era had a lot of Boston retreads. They generally seemed to be smart folks but if every single person has that Theo throughline you're still missing something.
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So uhhhh who's going to sign all these free agents?
Bertz replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think for both Bellinger and Chapman their options look like Cubs, hope the Mariners secretly have money, hope the Angels are willing to spend to paper over the embarrassment of the Ohtani debacle, or hope the Tigers or someone else from that group decide to play mystery team. Never count out Boras but honestly it looks bad for him right now. -
Right, I'm saying I agree he had two INTs that shouldn't really be held against him, but he separately had two should-have-been INTs dropped by the defense so it's all a wash.
