Bertz

So this is one of the things I was thinking of. https://theathletic.com/1646799/2020/03/04/sarris-whats-more-important-for-a-pitcher-command-or-stuff?source=user-shared-article I can't find the other rattling around my head, but it was basically what 1908 shared but in article form. Run values for like 90-92 on the black are higher than they are for like 97-99 down the middle. I don't remember exactly where those lines cross but I believe it was approximately 6-7 MPHs on average. This also doesn't take extreme spin/movement profiles like Steele or Shota into account, but again we're keeping to generalities.

Fun article on Cuas. I still like him a lot. As Baumann gets into in the article he couldn't locate his sweeper for horsefeathers last year, but I'm hopeful a winter and spring with it offers him a modicum of command. The velo's below average but the angle and the movement makes him really pop off in the various Stuff models.

It begins

I conceptually agree that ST is largely eyewash, but my understanding is that the guys who sign really late tend to underperform expectations at a statistically significant clip. Maybe it's less baseball and more soft factors (getting your kids into school, finding a condo, etc.) but my understanding is that the data bares it out as being an issue. That said the last time I saw research on it was like 6-7 years ago (I remember it being relatively fresh when we signed Darvish). With all the advances in tech and the ubiquity of like Trackmans and high velo pitching machines, I'd believe the issue is now moot. Unfortunately we've had very few instances of notable late signings post COVID (there were a bunch post lockout but the whole league was in the same boat). Jurickson Profar last year and Jackie Bradley Junior the year before were disasters, but that's just a sample size of two and they were a substantially lower class of players than what we're talking about.

My understanding from most recent research is that the game works the other way around. Elite stuff provides you opportunity to make mistakes in the zone, and is much more likely to draw chase out of the zone. All else equal 90 on the corner gets hit a hell of a lot harder than 99 down the pipe.

I think this is less of a concern than it was a few years ago. Steele and Shota don't throw hard but are plus stuff guys even by objective measures. The immediate 5th starter options (aside from Wesneski) are all some degree of soft tossing, but Brown and Horton are right behind that group and very much premium stuff/velo options. I think it does make you kind of wonder about giving Wicks or Smyly that 5th starter spot and leaning more towards Assad or Wesneski. Even though each of them has a very different movement profile and secondaries, having 3 or 4 lefties in your rotation throwing 92-93 seems potentially problematic?

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCade HortonMatt ShawOwen CaissieKevin AlcantaraMichael BuschJordan WicksBen BrownMoises BallesterosJefferson RojasJames TriantosBJ Murray JrAlexander CanarioJaxon WigginsMichael AriasLuke LittleDrew GrayCristian HernandezHaydn McGearyChristian Franklin

Yeah I think, especially since one of the logical ways to bridge a big gap is to go the short term deal with opt outs path, they're playing a real dangerous game. I think, Bryce Harper aside, just about all the guys who have signed super late have struggled that season. And then spring training is too long, but not for starting pitcher. The hitters can hold off for the first week of March, but if I'm the pitchers I want to be in camp by next week to make sure I don't torch my 2024. I think, especially with how all of these guys' markets are interconnected, at least one of them ends up pretty boned. I'd be shocked if JDM isn't already boned. Like it's going to make a major injury or two to bail Boras out here.

I would push back on this a bit. Despite all the whining about rust there's major major value in getting the bye, and we have seen teams operate accordingly (e.g. the Braves continuing to pile on this winter). There's not much value in a team like the Cubs going from the 5 seed to the three seed, but there is more value at the top end of the league and of course the middle class of the league that wants to grab that 5/6 seed.

And this great article from Jeff Passan is probably a good place to start https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39533275/mlb-expansion-32-teams-line-cities-nashville-montreal-portland-salt-lake-city-orlando-charlotte Some highlights:

This is a GD steal. I would have happily thrown him on the 3B pile for this money, though I suspect having a path to everyday SS at bats was his priority #1.

130 innings is my rough expectation for Horton as well, and it is not a lot. Justin Steele threw 120 in '22 and was a 5 and dive guy who missed the last month of the year. I think if the team is going to properly manage Horton's innings this year one of four things has to happen: 1. He has a very slow ramp up and doesn't come up until July or more likely August 2. He spends the last month or two of the season in the MLB pen 3. He gets Strasburg'd and shut down in August 4. He makes a sizable IL/DL stint I would guess #1 or #2 are the plan, I also think they're the best developmentally. So I think you're going to continually see the team he really conservative with him, e.g. starting him back at Tenn, to make sure the drumbeat to call him up doesn't get too loud too early.

I really want to see Franklin at Iowa so we can get Statcast data on him. I have a suspicion that the movement on his fastball is poor. I'm bad at a lot of the particulars of pitch design, but I know if you graph vertical and horizontal fastball movement there are there are certain dead zones where the combo gets murdered. This is actually what happened to Taillon in the first half of last year IIRC. I would not be surprised if that's Franklin's issue as well.

Tell me about it!

Weird how all these threads keep getting derailed in the same way by the same dufus. Oh well probably a coincidence.

Yeah Dom Smith's path to MLB is some Springfield Isotopes level of misfortune this spring. Peralta feels more possible if he's looking spry and Morel seems viable at 3B.

He has historically mashed righties, but didn't mash much of anything last year

The Mariners have long made a ton of sense roster-wise, but the thought was that they were crying poor because of the RSN issue. Maybe now that that's been resolved they're ready to play in the big boy waters? In that case seems pretty straightforward to game out: Cubs - Bellinger Mariners - Chapman Giants & Angels - Snell & Montgomery (TBD which one where) I'd be skeptical about the Yankees jumping in. Their payroll is $307M. I believe they'd literally have to pay a 110% tax on additional signings, meaning Snell at a $30M AAV would cost $63M in real dollars. George would have done that without battong an eye but Hal has not shown that level of commitment.

Yeah this feels right, especially with the two rehabbing pitchers off the market this AM.

Jefferson Rojas Haydn McGeary Michael Arias They also ran a list of guys their industry contacts picked, and Arias got a second mention and Drew Gray was named.

The one solitary good thing I'll say about Ricketts is that it does seem like he truly gives Jed a number and then stays the hell out of the way. The number is too low, I don't like what he's spending the rest of his time on, etc. But I'm glad he's not also an incompetent micromanager on top of it all like Arte Moreno.

I think Wicks is the favorite, but I do think Assad's chances are being understated by the fanbase. There's a funny thing that happens when a guy, particularly a pitcher, is lucky. Fans, even smart ones, often respond in one of two ways: 1. "Maybe he's an exception, and this is sustainable." More or less boils down to this 2. Deciding the guy is bad actually. There's a good bit of gambler's fallacy baked in here. But you'll often see "his FIP was a run higher than his ERA!" followed by a screed about how therefore he sucks. Blake Snell right now is a fantastic example of this. But there's a third path, if the ERA is lower than the FIP by a run, ask yourself: "So how would that FIP rank?" A LOT of baseball is luck, but lucky =/= bad. Going back to Blake Snell, he pitched like an All Star last year and got luck carried him to Cy Young caliber results. But don't ignore that first part about pitching like an All Star. Bringing this back to Assad, he pitched well, regardless of role, after he came back to MLB for good in June. His stint back in the rotation in August/September was particularly illuminating, as IMO even if you ignore the sparkling ERA he peripherally looked like a quality #4 starter. I think Wicks' prospect pedigree and Assad's early success as a swingman is ultimately going to lead to Jordan getting that #5 spot. But if I had to win a game right now Assad would pretty easily be my choice among the four contenders and so I don't think he's too much of a long shot to grab the spot for himself.

I think the best idea I've heard came from Meg Rowley. Not a deadline but a moratorium, let's call it from the end of the winter meetings to the arb deadline. It probably spurs some movement at the meetings, which is great, but doesn't hurt labor because you can juat pick things back up in January. I think too just having six weeks where you're not checking Twitter every day for moves would significantly help the average fan's disposition. Shutting things down for the holidays would also be a big win for all the folks who work in the game and can often be collateral damage to major changes.