Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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So i know we got man-handled by pitcher attrition this year, but two veteran starters feels like overkill. Let's say we add that step up from Taillon guy. This our SP depth chart on April 1 of next year to cover the #5 spot plus injuries: Assad Brown Wicks Wesneski Horton Birdsell That is an entire additional rotation. All of these guys last they were on the mound seemed major league ready. All of these guys (pending bad news about Brown's neck) are supposed to be good to go for spring training. 5 of 6 hit the IL last year, with 3 of them being pretty lengthy stays, so I don't want to overstate the reliability. But generally I'd be much more worried about the second FA's performance or the opportunity cost of the resources he would require than I would be about having an 11th starter I feel comfortable with. Exception for Shane Bieber, he's impact-y enough and his 2025 innings number questionable enough that I'd be down. And of course the calculus changes a good bit if we are dealing young pitching to address other openings.
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Max Fried is my favorite of the big money pitchers by a pretty decent margin. His elbow needs to be looked at thoroughly (two forearm related IL stints the last two years), but he's pretty fantastic all around and my only objection to giving him Aaron Nola money is general fear of long term deals to pitchers. I also like that Eovaldi got name checked, as I've had him on my list for a while. I actually wanted him instead of Taillon but that pesky qualifying offer kept that from happening two years ago. I don't see as much logic in the Buehler/Martinez tier. The team does not seem likely to be hurting for innings unless they trade multiple young startoptions. I don't think expect they need two SPs. And I'd be pretty shocked and upset with like Walker Buehler as our top SP option. That does not feel like it reflects where this roster is currently at all.
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Ah, I fat fingered Moises' innings and got 565. Still Schwarber was at 574 (you didn't count MLB innings) so the broader point still stands that they're in largely the same position. The knee injury put a sudden and definitive end to Schwarber the catcher but their situations and their reputations are/were pretty similar.
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Kyle Schwarber caught more innings in 2015 (the last season before his gruesome knee injury) than Ballesteros did here in 2024 🙃
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I like these a lot. My top priorities on the position player side this winter are 1. Catcher 2. Lefty masher who fits somewhere into the 1B/DH/OF mix 3. A quality offensively minded backup infielder, ideally a lefty Yandy Diaz is damn near the platonic ideal of that lefty masher. Among guys with at least 400 PAs against lefties the last 3 years he's 3rd in wRC+. I guess perfect world he's an outfielder so Suzuki can stay out of the field as much as possible, but that's nitpicking. Lowe's similar on that #3 role. Offensively exactly what I'm looking for. Defensively I wish he could at least dabble at 3b. If we don't want to roster Mastrobuoni or Madrigal, and I don't think we do, the backup there is...Busch? Sliding Nico over there for the first time in several years? I'm comfortable with Shaw getting run at 3B if Paredes were to get hurt, but I don't love any of the guys who would cover the position for just a day or three.
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Cubs Planning To Add Starting Pitcher In Offseason
Bertz replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Patrick Mooney of all people wrote an article of major substance?! https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5857550/2024/10/21/cubs-free-agents -
I think it's more likely his contract starts with a 6 than it does with a 4. Ohtani "only" got ~$450M in real dollars, but given the wacky deferrals were his idea he clearly valued that structure more than an accountant would. He also was dead set on LAD from the start and by all indications left some money on the table. Soto is 4.5 years younger, seems intent on maxing contract value, and doesn't have any complications in terms of health or 6 man rotations or anything like that. Also teams last winter were able to look ahead to Soto this winter. There's not another FA in this stratosphere coming coming for a long time unless *maybe* Vlad Jr. has a sufficiently monstrous 2025.
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It's clear this conversation is not going anywhere, so I'll just distill my thoughts into one last post: - It is clear via both the team's actions and words (such as your quotes) that our standard assumption for payroll in any given year should be a little below the CBT line - The costs of exceeding the CBT, even the repeater penalties, are fairly piddling unless you do so by 10's of millions of dollars. Particularly for a GM like Jed who tries very hard to avoid QO free agents regardless - It was clear immediately after the Bellinger signing that the team was right on the edge of the CBT. The team made very little effort to dip back under from there, despite opportunity to do so My point is less "the team will exceed the Luxury Tax this year" but instead because of those three points above my POV is "the team's plans are largely unchanged from what they would have been if they had narrowly avoided thr Luxury Tax."
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Do you not see how circular your reasoning is? You start from this place of the CBT being a hard line, and spiral out from there. "Well he can't cross the line because it's the line!" But what if it's not the line? Doesn't all the behavior from the last 8 months start to make a lot more sense? You still haven't even attempted to answer why if this is *such* a big deal they didn't make an attempt to avoid it at the trade deadline. Do you not take that as evidence you should reconsider your priors?
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TT has posted some variation of this before, but I can't find it so I'll paraphrase, probably poorly: Which of these scenarios is more likely? A) Last spring, famously conservative Jed Hoyer signed Cody Bellinger to a deal that put the team right on the razors edge of the luxury tax. He chose not to do a longer/lower AAV deal to ensure they stayed under for...reasons. At the trade deadline Jed added salary, all but ensuring that the team would be over the tax. He didn't trade away any additional salary (Smyly, Tauchman, etc.) because...hubris? Now the team is going to have a materially lower payroll in 2025 than they would have if the team had been able to sneak under the line B) Tom Ricketts is intent on keeping payroll within a stone's throw of the luxury tax (let's say within $10M?) in all but the most special of circumstances. As such even with repeater penalties, the tax bill is going to top out at ~$5M per year. Jed has already shown he will only sign QO free agents when they're impact players, so the extra draft penalties will either not come up at all, or be such a non factor if he does pony up for e.g. Max Fried.
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Why are you so confident about this? Why do you think $56K in taxes on $280K in payroll is going to have major impacts on this year's planning? Do you really think that if they had snuck in at $280K under, they would have suddenly spent $10M more this coming year? What are you basing this on?
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Yankees don't have a ton of money in their pen currently, but recent vintages with dominant bullpens have. Although those had Aroldis Chapman who did get that mega deal and goes against my point. This year's pen is built largely through trade. Holmes and Hill came via trade, Kahnle was a guy they traded for and resigned. Effross and Leiter obviously came via trade, neither is currently contributing which speaks to the need to take a lot of shots. I'll say too Luke Weaver got very little money, but he did get a guaranteed deal with an option for next year, that's not a deal that a lot of guys in his situation would get. Yankees thought he was more than just a lottery ticket, overpaid a bit, and now have their closer for next year locked up to an absurdly team friendly deal.
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Emmanuel Clase and Edwin Diaz having disastrous postseasons feels pretty compelling as "don't sink a ton of resources into a reliever" evidence. That said the Yankees and Dodgers have plenty of resources in their pen, it's just more of a spread the wealth sort of deal.
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Cubs Free-Agent Target Tracker: Corbin Burnes
Bertz replied to Brandon Glick's topic in North Side Baseball Front Page News
There was a study a long time ago that said new ligaments tend to last about 7 years, but with how quickly medicine in this space advances I wouldn't put too much weight in that still being gospel. -
Cubs Free-Agent Target Tracker: Corbin Burnes
Bertz replied to Brandon Glick's topic in North Side Baseball Front Page News
I'm pretty strongly anti-Burnes. I've mentioned this before but he gives strong "2016 Jake Arrieta" vibes. That's not bad, in fact that's a very good pitcher! But the decline is precipitous and I have doubts he'll be the best FA starter in year one of his deal, much less beyond that. Add on thr expected contract and forget about it. If you want an ace I think the best bet is Max Fried. You have to wonder if the forearm bothering him each of the last two years is a warning sign that his elbow is going to pop, but if the doctors aren't worried about his elbow the resume is pretty unimpeachable IMO. If you want to take some risk Kikuchi looks like he has a chance to be the best guy in this class.- 4 replies
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- corbin burnes
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Me ranking Long 15th in the system a few weeks ago
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I dunno, maybe some self awareness that the answer to "why didn't they trade Marcus Stroman for Jordan Westburg?" might be less "Jed didn't think of that" and instead be "the Orioles never put that on the table"?
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https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/07/27/marcus-stromans-performance-blip-and-the-impact-it-has-on-the-cubs-trade-deadline-plans/ Also I suggest you catch up on the guys that got moved in the Lynn/Montgomery trades.
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The opt in/opt out decision that limited upside on any acquisition, exacerbated downside, and probably had some effect in his trade value?
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Marcus Stroman had an ERA of 9.00 starting with the London game through the deadline last year. It was practically all anyone could talk about.
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"Go get a star! We're the Cubs we shouldn't have to settle for 'pretty good' players" "Okay which star do you have in mind?"
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The problem is there are no trees. You want there to be trees, but who are these 3B who are A) better than Paredes and B) reasonably available? This isn't MLB the Show you can't just force the Guardians to take 5 C+ prospects for Jose Ramirez. Who is available as a 3B and Bregman is better than Paredes and will be available, but stumping for him while at the same time crapping on Paredes for coming from a ballpark that made his offense look better than it really is would be hilarious doublespeak.
