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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Is this actually true? If you had a magic wand and changed Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson into Bryce Harper and Core Seager, the team adds 2.1 WAR. If you used the same wand and upgraded the Cubs' catcher production from 29th to 15th the team adds 2.7 WAR.
  2. Bertz
    I guess without casting too many aspersions about the people keeping the lights on here, some people have a tendency to be pretty dramatic. There is a growing gap between AAA and MLB, but that simply means that guys need to spend between a half and a full season there now. It's a big change from a few years ago where if you sufficiently conquered AA you might only spend a month at AAA and be no worse for wear. Owen Caissie has just about a full season at Iowa under his belt, Ballesteros is at about half a season, and the cohort of Shaw/Alcantara/Triantos have about a quarter of a season. There's not really any of those guys who, barring major struggles or injuries they have not yet had yet, you'd reasonably put their ETA much further out than next season's ASB. Caissie could come up now, maybe not permanently but certainly to play out the string while the standings are what they are.
  3. Bertz
    Which articles? Because the Cubs top 6 prospects are all at AAA so I'm not sure where you're getting any of this.
  4. Bertz
    Pretty solid set of pitching matchups both here in the A's series and during the upcoming Nats series. We do draw Gore, but he's the only pitcher this week worth worrying about. Although on the flip side not sure anyone except Patrick Corbin is outright bad. Would be a nice week to call up Owen Caissie....
  5. Bertz
    I would guess that it's threefold: 1. Losing the A- leagues legitimately sucks. A lot of 19/20 year olds are in a weird middle ground between Arizona and Low A, and you have to think some of them are being impacted by not having a league actually at their level 2. Anecdotally, I do think fewer super-young IFAs are making the list. I think, much like how pitching is getting discounted on prospect lists because of risk, fewer Cristian Hernandez types are just being gifted a spot on pure hype. This is a good thing IMO. 3. Colleges are getting really horsefeathering good at player development. I think, even setting aside structural MiLB stuff, we're probably in a cycle where domestic amateurs are just simply producing more right now. This stuff waxes and wanes. It's worth keeping an eye on and discussing but I don't know that it's yet reached the point of a problem.
  6. Bertz
    It's very funny to me when the same fans who get on Jed's ass about the deliberate nature of this "retool not a rebuild" also say stuff like this. Like the complaining about the former is fair, but if you're also saying things like this you're absolutely speaking out of both sides of your mouth. Not to mention Anthony freakin' Santander is not going to get some mega contract. 4/$100M on the absolute high end? As for his fit on the roster, I tend to think it's pretty clean. It does force you to play Seiya in the field a decent amount, but essentially every power bat out there to be had except Luis Robert comes with that tradeoff. Santander can also play 1B and is stronger against lefties than righties, so he's actually a better defensive fit on the roster than his FA peers like Teoscar Hernandez because of those ~30 games of infield work. Essentially he replaces Cody Bellinger AND Patrick Wisdom on the roster.
  7. Bertz
    I'd really love for that to be Caissie's farewell to (2024 at least) AAA. And Matt Shaw's probably not MLB ready yet, but he's getting close. Even with the increasing difficulty at AAA probably tracking for Memorial Day? And if god forbid there was a Hoerner/Swanson injury next year before then I'd say horsefeathers it and call him up.
  8. Bertz
    It does not have to be an impact guy, but one thing the team needs for next year is a better lefty masher than Wisdom. Because Wisdom’s splits are more high/low than left/right, he's miscast in the role he has on this team. And while I do think he's a quality major leaguer, it makes a lot more sense to swap him out rather than shuffle the guys around him to make his role fit better. All that being said, he should eat against Kyle Freeland tonight.
  9. Bertz
    Even with him taking a step back this year I *love* this Luis Castillo idea.
  10. Bertz
    I'd be curious what trade options there are out there at SP. Is there anyone of major substance available out there aside from the Seattle guys and Garret Crochet? And even the Seattle guys, are they available for prospects or do they require a bat (Busch?) that can be immediately plugged in?
  11. Bertz
    Seems good, especially now that A ball is only about 25% of these games
  12. Bertz
    418 feet!
  13. Bertz
    Sam Armstrong has pretty fringey stuff, right? So even with the strong performance (Ks notwithstanding) not a ton to get excited about? Or is there a plus pitch there somewhere that might portend a fun reliever?
  14. Bertz
    I wonder if the Iowa catcher situation next year is just him and Moises or whether they insist on a 3rd catcher who's more of an adult. Might be an early indication of how real the Cubs actually view Ballesteros' odds of sticking at catcher.
  15. Bertz
    Yeah I think I tend to agree about that position player glut. That 5 pack of bats at Iowa probably needs to be broken up, regardless of how much work Jed can do with just his checkbook. I think in an ideal world you keep Ballesteros, Shaw, and one of Alcantara/Triantos. That way you have coverage of every single position just a phone call away at Iowa, but you're still cashing in some chips to improve the team and not just hoarding prospects.
  16. Bertz
    As Bellinger goes on a heater to close out the year, I do wonder what parts of Jed's plan change depending on Cody's opt out. Mike Tauchman covers a lot of what Cody brings to the table. Not as well obviously, but I'd say the skill gap is smaller than the salary gap. Right now, if Bellinger opts in, there is ~$50M for Jed to play with this winter. Cody opting out makes than closer to $75M. At $50M you simply can't do all the necessary winter shopping in free agency, or least you can't do it well. A trade or two of substance feels more or less mandatory. At $75M though? You can probably pull off a good offseason with just money if you're willing to eat a Qualifying Offer. Santander ($25M per?), Carson Kelly ($8-10M), Nate Eovaldi ($20-25M), and David Robertson ($12-15M), easy peasy. So if Cody opts out, does Jed just take the path of least resistance and do his shopping all in FA? Does he still cover the bat or the SP in trade to make money less tight the following offseason? Does he push his chips in and make a five or dare I ask six moves of consequence? I would dismiss the latter out of hand if not for the fact that he's trying to earn an extension.
  17. Bertz
    So pretty explicitly the white flag has been raised, huh? Going Amrstrong-Wingenter instead of Pearson-Hodge is pretty clear on that front. It's not unreasonable but I was still surprised to see it. No reason Caissie shouldn't be up on Friday if that's the case.
  18. Bertz
  19. Bertz
    Kelly's almost certainly the boring/efficient/responsible play at Catcher. That said one thing that's also a consideration is the lineup's need for power. Especially if Bellinger opts in it might be tough to add that singular impact power bat. Getting an extra ~15 dongs out of catcher even with a flat wRC+ might have some real value in upping the lineup's firepower in the aggregate.
  20. Bertz
    If the Cubs DFA Davis, which they don't necessarily *have* to do with another option year remaining, he'll probably value an org with an easier outfield to break into over any friendships/familiarity he has with the Cubs. He clearly seems to have a limited number of bullets so he should go somewhere that can bring up up the instant he seems ready.
  21. Bertz
    I wouldn't be sure the velo is gone purposely or permanently. There's a pretty good chance it's a near term conditioning issue. To be very clear that's not to imply any sort of lack of effort, but being on the shelf with an oblique significantly cuts down on which exercises you can engage in. Essentially the opposite of when guys come back from TJ throwing harder than ever because they took the opportunity to get the lower 3/4s of their body absolutely jacked.
  22. Bertz
    It's a good question. I'd guess everyone recognizes it by now, but it might not change how they act on it? Today's a great example, the Dodgers have only so much rope they can give Bobby Miller. They might know "if we give him two months to go out there and pitch and not look over his shoulder he'll probably get it straightened out." But even if that's true can they really tolerate him bombing out those ten starts to get there? It's one reason that of the Cubs prospects Alcantara probably needs to be traded. Next year is already his last option year, so he needs to be a permanent MLBer by opening day '26. He probably needs to go to a team that can let him bounce up and down next year based on his developmental needs, and if need be take some additional lumps in the first half of '26.
  23. Bertz
    As much as I'm the patience guy and make snide remarks about fans getting overly worked up about every streak and (especially) slump, I don't think the PCA situation is entirely that. There is an ahistoric (and growing?) gap between AAA and MLB. A certain level of failure for a rookie has always been the expectation, but I think we're seeing deeper and longer struggles than ever. We all basically need to reset our expectations for rookie hitters broadly. PCA's probably a notable example but not an extreme one.
  24. Bertz
    Bobby Miller has been having a rough go of it all year, and it hasn't let up since he came off the IL. It is mostly a matter of giving up a ton of dongs, and that is usually more luck than skill. It wouldn't be crazy for him to have a good game but I'd certainly rather have Wicks going tonight.
  25. Bertz
    This was ADORABLE
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