If they had gotten tangled up and Sabonis grabbed Draymond’s arm in a similar fashion, and Draymond reacted by punching Sabonis in the chest, he’d absolutely get suspended. I don’t see how this should be any different. It’s such an easy call to suspend him.
And like you said, his history matters. If the roles were reversed, Sabonis might have escaped a suspension because he doesn’t have a history of picking up flagrant fouls like Draymond does (though I’d still say Sabonis should get suspended in that scenario). You’re not going to get away with things when you have Draymond’s history.