Few things worth noting here: - The former was a third year MLer, the other a rookie at the start of these windows - Despite the massive gap from that randomly selected window, their careers are separated by ~2 fWAR (advantage Devers, sure) - ^ This because over the last 3 years Devers has put up 9.8 fWAR to Swanson's 12.1 They're not randomly selected windows. Like I said, we don't have info on Devers from ages 26-28 because, you know, he hasn't played those seasons yet. Devers at the same age was a significantly better baseball player than Swanson. The age gap matters. Is it possible that we've seen the best of Devers and he's not going to get better? Sure. Is it possible that Swanson in 2022 was just a career year that he'll regress from? Also sure. Personally, I prefer betting on a player who has been better at baseball while also being 3 years younger. As for your first point about comparing a third year MLer to a rookie...