soccer10k
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Everything posted by soccer10k
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The question was why do we expect the Cubs to score fewer runs in the playoffs than they did in the regular season while we expect our opponents to score more. And the answer is obvious. Does that mean both of those things will happen? Of course not. That's not how small samples work. But we know our pitching staff is awful. And our opponents will only face that awful staff. Whereas the teams we're going to face in the playoffs don't have awful pitching. By fWAR, LA is 1, Phi is 2, Mil is 4, Atl is 10, SD is 15. B-R has all five teams in the top-12 (Cubs are 26th). FIP has the Cubs at 26th. SD is 19th while the other four are in the top-13. So unless we face SD, we're going to be facing a pitching staff that is better than the average pitching staff we faced all year. EDIT: Our defense helps for sure, but there's no defense for bombs hit into the bleachers.
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DBacks lose so magic number down to 4 with 9 to play. Cubs go 3-6, Arizona has to go 9-0 to pass us.
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I mean, generally speaking, the Cubs are going to face tougher pitching staffs in the playoffs than they have faced in the regular season, right? Meanwhile, the teams the Cubs play are going to face one of the worst, if not the worst, pitching staff. So yeah, if the Phillies (just to pick a team) scored X runs on average against all the other 29 teams, where they faced both good and bad pitchers, I'd expect them to average more runs when facing only bad pitchers.
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Bullpen trying to do bullpen things again. Cool.
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DBacks lose. So the WC standings Cubs Phillies 0.5 GB Padres 1.5 GB DBacks 4 GB Cubs magic number for the playoffs is 6
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Has a team ever hit the most home runs in a season and also allowed the most? Because the Cubs have given up the most so far (one ahead of the A's) and are one behind the Yankees for most homers hit.
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What about not in 2019. The ball was super huiced that year and everyone hit a ton of home runs. EDIT: Statmuse says 258 by the 2021 Orioles. The four above them are all from 2019 and a fifth from 2019 is tied with the 2021 Orioles.
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The Cubs couldn’t hold a 1 run lead?
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At least 1 won't lose this week because Atl plays Car.
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I know Fairbanks got hurt and didn't give up the HR, but when he came in and they showed he had a 6.1 ERA, I just assumed that it wouldn't end well.
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Because I’d rather reward the team that actually played a good team rather than mid tier Group of 5 teams or FCS teams.
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Wind blowing in doesn't help. I haven't been watching super close but PCA would have 2 homers with neutral wind.
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Ohio State loses by a single point, on the road, to the formerly #4 (now #1) team and they drop 5 spots. Obviously beating a CUSA team by 50, and American team by 52, a MEAC team by 55 and a SWAC team by 70 are more impressive. I know, I know, polls suck. I generally ignore them and put little stock in them, but can't help myself from being annoyed at how stupid they can be.
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Historically great based on what exactly? He led the league in INT% (behind Penix but he only played 9 games) and his season was 33rd all time. In 2024 he was third in the league. He fumbled 9 times, which was more than Hurts, Maye, Allen, Herbert, Lawrence and Dart despite those four all having more rushing attempts than him. All four of those guys got sacked more than Caleb as well. Best I can tell, the Bears fumbled 13 times but only lost 4 of them. Meanwhile they lead the league with 23 interceptions despite not being the best defensive team. Don't want to make it seem like Williams sucks. He may very well turn into a superstar. I just don't think we know that Caleb is a guy you win because of while Maye isn't (though it's certainly possible that sentiment turns out to be correct).
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Do we know the Bears can win because of Caleb? They went 11-6 with the point differential of a 9-8 team while leading the league with a +22 turnover margin (only four other teams were even +10). Like would we be saying that if the Bears went 8-9 and missed the playoffs last year like they probably should have?
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It does because they’ve had a crap pitching staff all year and yet they’re still on pace for 90 wins.
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How many reliable innings have we had from the bullpen for the first 5 1/2 months of the season?
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I’m not going to say the Cubs absolutely can’t or won’t win the WS. But I do think their flaw is so obvious and glaring that I just can’t see it happening. I don’t have a quick way of looking this up, but what the worst rank in pitching fWAR for a WS winner? Its not like we’re 17th where you can mix and match, play matchups, cut out the bad 5th starter and bottom couple relievers and your staff looks better. I mean to some extent we can, but I’m not sure it’s enough to make a meaningful difference.
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Ok. And they also just won a series against the Marlins and split a 4 game series against the team with the best record in the league. Nobody is saying we’re not going to blow games against bad team. We’re talking about what is likely to happen.
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Yes. Look at the schedule. It’s not like we’re playing the Brewers, Dodgers and Braves the next 16 games. We likely have one series against a good team that will be trying (Atlanta). Maybe 2 if Boston stays close to the Yankees and cares about HFA more than setting their pitching staff. Does that mean we will go 7-9 or better? Of course not.
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And it took the Cubs going 5-11 in those 16 games to miss the playoffs by a game. 7-9 isn’t great but it would have gotten them in.
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Looks like the DBacks are 3 back of the Cubs and the Padres are 3.5 back. Cubs have 16 games left. If the Cubs go 8-8, Ari would have to go 12-4 and SD 13-4 to pass us. Also keep in mind, SD and Ari play in San Diego to end the year so that's three guaranteed losses. Still play Pitt, Cincy, Mia and a Boston team that might have nothing to play for in the final series. Just don't tank and they'll get in. Yes, I'm sure I said that in 2023 when they did tank.
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Nats pen might be worse than ours so plenty of time for them to blow it.
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I want them to make it and will watch the games but unless they’re up 8, I’m just goin to assume the pen will blow it.
