soccer10k

Phillies about to clinch the NL East.

Let's just agree to disagree and be done with this.

Yeah. Let's not look at splits at all because it's "intentionally shrinking the sample size". So when Lou makes his lineup out he should just put the best OPS guys in the lineup and not look up lefty/righty splits (based on the opponent's starting pitcher) because using the lefty/righty splits would be "intentionally shrinking the sample size". That makes sense. Where did I say to ignore splits? There's a reason why a hitter or pitcher would peform differently v. lefties or righties. There's absolutely no reason to explain why Dempster would perform differently in the 9th or 10th inning of a tie game than he would in the 9th inning with a one run lead. And you've yet to provide one. (Because, of course, there isn't one) Again, it just isn't the case that Dempster's poor performances have come in meaningless games that can be explained away by poor focus, etc. They've all come (except one) in extremely high leverage spots. It's simply nonsensical to ignore those games and focus only a subset of full performance record. Because it would be "Intentionally shrinking the sample size".

Yeah. Let's not look at splits at all because it's "intentionally shrinking the sample size". So when Lou makes his lineup out he should just put the best OPS guys in the lineup and not look up lefty/righty splits (based on the opponent's starting pitcher) because using the lefty/righty splits would be "intentionally shrinking the sample size". That makes sense.

Well, except those will be save situations which he is good in. Which are those? It seems sort of silly to me that people think there's some sort of meaningful distinction between his relative success with 1, 2, and 3 run leads and his repeated failures in tie games. Do you think he pitches differently when the game is tied in the ninth inning than he does when it's a 1, 2, or 3 run lead in the ninth inning? The distinction is utterly absurd. Also, non-save situations aren't restricted to tie games as they include any lead over 3 runs. If you don't think a pitcher pitches differently with a big lead than he does with a 1 or 2 run lead you're crazy. If the actual facts were that Dempster had pitched poorly a number of times with an 8 run lead, your argument would make sense. That's not the case. Dempster's really poor games this season: April 22 v. StL: gave up 3 runs in a tie game in the 10th inning to lose May 17 @ NyM: gave up 5 runs after coming with 5-1 lead in the 9th Jun 10 @ Atl: gave up 3 runs to blow a 4-2 lead and lose 5-4 Aug 3 v. NYM: gave up 4 runs in the 9th after coming in to a 2-2 game Sept. 6 v. LAD: gave up 4 in the 9th to blow a 4-3 and lose 7-4 Sept. 14 v. StL: gave up 2 runs in the 9th with a 5-1 lead at StL Only 2 of those games were technically "save situations." But all but the Sept. 14 game were extremely high leverage spots. The Apr 22 and Aug 3 games were tie games in the 9th and 10th inning. The May 17 didn't start as a high-leverage game, but Dempster turned it into one quickly. It's merely coincidental that only two of his really bad games have come in "save" situations. If you think a pitcher pitches differently with a 1 or 2 run lead than he does in a tie game in the 9th or 10th inning, it's you who is crazy. Coincidental or not, Dempster has been very good in save situations and bad in non-save situations. And this is over the whole year too. If a guy is very good in one situation and bad in another, why wouldn't you feel confident in him in the first situation. What are you going to tell me next, that Sean Marshall has been inconsistent this year?

It all depends if the team wants to go with 4 starters or not. If there's only 3, they won't put Marquis on as a reliever. If 4, he'll be the 4th guy. Remember also that the roster can change from round to round so if the Cubs want to use 4 starters in one round and then 3 the next, they always could bring Marquis for one series and leave him off of another. I was going to say the same thing. If Lou chooses to us a four man rotation, who do you start for Game 4 if it's not Marquis? Steve Traschel? Basically what the decision is going to come down to for Lou is who he thinks will be more effective in Game 4: Z on 3 days rest or Marquis/Traschel/?. Why does everyone forget about Sean Marshall? I would definitely choose him over Marquis or Trachsel. I would too but they aren't even throwing him down the stretch here but he's only pitched three times this month and only once since Sept 15. He's currently logged a whopping 6 innings this month in 2 relief appearances and one start. I would think that if the Cubs wanted him to pitch in the posteason as a starter they would have used him as such down the stretch here.

It all depends if the team wants to go with 4 starters or not. If there's only 3, they won't put Marquis on as a reliever. If 4, he'll be the 4th guy. Remember also that the roster can change from round to round so if the Cubs want to use 4 starters in one round and then 3 the next, they always could bring Marquis for one series and leave him off of another. I was going to say the same thing. If Lou chooses to us a four man rotation, who do you start for Game 4 if it's not Marquis? Steve Traschel? Basically what the decision is going to come down to for Lou is who he thinks will be more effective in Game 4: Z on 3 days rest or Marquis/Traschel/?.

That's a signal that some of the AP people didn't really watch some of the games either. To have 20 voters change their mind on LSU-USC based on yesterday's games? I don't see it. I watched USC look really bad, but LSU looked pretty bad themselves yesterday. I really like the jump to #6 for South Florida though. For what they've done so far, they deserve that ranking for now. Who knows how close those voters had them in the first place. I mean, if those voters had it basically as a coinflip, yesterday could have been enough to push them the other direction. Plus, it is tough to watch all the games and I'm sure the AP voters make a much better attempt than the coaches do. And with so many other good games and upsets yesterday, I can't really fault them for not watching LSU-Tulane and just looking at the box score. Obviously you are going to get some AP voters who don't really do their homework but I still put way more stock in that poll.

Well, except those will be save situations which he is good in. Which are those? It seems sort of silly to me that people think there's some sort of meaningful distinction between his relative success with 1, 2, and 3 run leads and his repeated failures in tie games. Do you think he pitches differently when the game is tied in the ninth inning than he does when it's a 1, 2, or 3 run lead in the ninth inning? The distinction is utterly absurd. The role of the closer, right or wrong, is to come into the game in the ninth with a 1-3 run lead. When Dempster does that, he is a very good pitcher and the numbers back this up. When he comes in when the game is tied or with a 4+ run lead, he isn't very good. I have total faith in Dempster to pick up the save if he's brought in with a 1 to 3 run lead. However, if he's brought in with a 4+ run lead or a tie game, I have faith in him to give up runs. Also, non-save situations aren't restricted to tie games as they include any lead over 3 runs. If you don't think a pitcher pitches differently with a big lead than he does with a 1 or 2 run lead you're crazy.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/rankingsindex New polls out and LSU has jumped USC for the top spot although it's only by 2 points in the AP Poll. Top 5 is the same for both with LSU, USC, Cal, OSU, Wisc as the top 5. Reason #293847 why nobody should ever look at the coaches poll: Florida is still ranked #7 ahead of Kentucky and South Florida. AP Poll, on the other hand, has South Florida, BC, Kentucky 6 through 8 with Florida 9th.

We're going to get killed in the Fargo Dome.

Well, except those will be save situations which he is good in.

NL ROY: Ryan Braun AL ROY: Dustin Pedroia NL MVP: Prince Fielder (changed my mind in the last couple days) AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez NL MOY: Lou Piniella AL MOY: Eric Wedge AL CY: Josh Beckett NL CY: Jake Peavy

Because Ned Yost should win it. :wink:

right... which sucks cause that's 10:30 here in NY Move to the West Coast.

It's like 2006 all over again.

unless the brewers and nationals can be spoilers... plus...it is still early in that game...i know it sounds unrealistic, but the mets could conceivably come back... Won't matter. If the Mets and Phillies both lose, the WC will either be the Padres or Rockies which means the Cubs would still play Arizona. The only way the Cubs won't play the D-Backs is if the both the Phillies and Mets make the playoffs (which would require both teams to win today).

Mets getting killed right now so it's looking like, at the most, there could only be two one game playoffs between the Mets and Phillies (for the NL East) and for the NL WC (Rockies and Padres) which would both take place on Monday. But with the Mets losing they won't be able to tie for the WC which is nice because the Cubs' first round series wouldn't get pushed back.

<3 Soriano. Please keep it up in the playoffs.

Since I'm hoping there isn't a complete logjam for the NL East and the WC so two or three extra days aren't needed to play the games out (please don't push back Game 4) I'm hoping either the Padres win or, like appears to be happening, either the Mets or Phillies (or both) lose.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070929&content_id=2239774&vkey=news_chc&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc&partnered=rss_chc Thanks (to Raisin as well). This I'm okay with.

As of now South Florida has only beaten 1 ranked team since Auburn dropped out. They might jump back into the polls on the heels of this win against Florida but right now they're not so you can't count that. But it's still a very good win going to Auburn and winning. And the WVU win was impressive as well. The problem with LSU is that they haven't done anything on the road. They've beaten Mississippi State and Tulane. They also killed an obviously overrated Virginia Tech team (at the time the two teams played) and beat a decent South Carolina team. But both those games were in Death Valley. Cal at least has a very good road victory when they beat Oregon yesterday. Same goes for USC in going to Nebraska and posting a dominating victory. While I don't think Nebraska is as good as Oregon, USC's victory was much more convincing so that makes up for it. Though USC also struggled against Washington though it was on the road. Like I said about BC, I'm always going to be skeptical because they play in the ACC. Kentucky beat an apparently overrated Louisville team (namely the defense) and a decent Arkansas team. They play at South Carolina and host LSU and Florida in the upcoming weeks. Missouri hasn't played anybody but in the next two weeks they host Nebraska and play at Oklahoma so we'll quickly find out how good of a team they really are. Wisconsin has struggled at times and they also haven't played anybody - no, I don't think Michigan State is all that great yet. I've fallen into the MSU trap before only to see them fall flat on their faces. Wisconsin does get the benefit of the doubt because they were a very good team last year and returned almost all of their starters. I'd still stick with my top-5 but South Florida would probably be tied with Wisconsin for fifth (I, admittedly forgot about them when making my top-5 earlier). You could put either fifth and the other sixth and I wouldn't have a problem with it.

He'll just throw a couple of innings a la a side session. He'd be on 8 days rest before Game 2 otherwise. Ok. So nowhere near what Rich did today then I assume.

WGN and then Sammy.

Is it on the Cubs' broadcast or the Reds'? You can see it better on the Reds'. I just saw the Sportscenter highlight using CSN's broadcast and they didn't zoom in as far. I put my hands up because I was celebrating the homer, then the ball bounced into my row so I made a reach for it. You can see me if you're looking for the tall guy with blue sleeves. :D THE CUBS WON THE SOAP DROPPING NL CENTRAL DIVISION :) I tried looking again on MLB.TV but I couldn't see you.