Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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My NLCS refund is in.
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Ya betta ask somebodddaaaaaaaaayyyyyy!
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Peavy's mediocrity away from Petco two of the last three years worry me a little bit. I think exploring Cain might be a better fit, he's younger, may be just as good going forward, might have less of a player cost, isn't a big guaranteed contract to worry about fitting into the current financials, and the Giants' asking players might be a better fit than San Diego's. -
Cubs Top Prospect Lists
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Outshined_One's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Do you have him in your top 10? yeah, i have higher hopes for him than guys like Flaherty, Rhee and Colvin I can see having hopes for him, but he'll be 23 and in his 3rd pro season to start next year without any time above Peoria. I mean, he's a solid three years older than Rhee, and Rhee was better at Peoria(although obviously the injury is a big concern). -
I'm not saying we should just dump him, but I'd be open to trading him. Where is this .900 OPS hitter you see? I tghink you're giving Lee way too much credit. I don't think that was a "down year". He was not even remotely close to being the same hitter. He was a complete mess. His GB% was way up and none of his peripherals look good. It's not like he had some bad slumps or hit into bad luck, he was just flat out awful for 5 months of the season. At this point I'd say that an .850 OPS would be a pleasent surprise. How can you say you expect a minimum of an .850 OPS when he had an .823 OPS this season and a .759 OPS after May 1? His GB% hardly skyrocketed, it went up less than 4%. In fact, as a whole Lee's batted balls were probably about just as good as last year, without the lucky BABIP. That said, I don't think it's wise to bank on an .850 OPS, but it shouldn't surprise anyone at all if he's in the .850-.900 range.
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IT'S THE DEFINING PURPOSE OF THE GAME
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Throw-in, and not a very good one. He's had four seasons where he's spent significant time in AAA. Other teams have had opportunities to get him via the Rule 5 Draft and the Cubs haven't bothered to give him much time in the majors, even as a pinch hitter. His age hurts, too. I think that Hoff could be a solid major league starter, like a .285/.375/.450 type of guy if he were to get the chance. As for trade value, I agree that hed have to be a throw in. An .825 OPS is below average for a 1B. And it's questionable that Hoffpauir could be an .825 hitter.
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Good HBT analysis of the last 2 postseason debacles
Transmogrified Tiger replied to UMFan83's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
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My bad, I somehow saw both of his LD as 19, instead of the 13 from last year. Even then, he still outperformed his LD% in '08, and not by the "oh he's got good speed it should be a little higher than expected" amount either.
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I think 2008 is a lot closer to where he is than 2007. His batted balls remained largely the same, and his BABIP came down to reasonable levels. With his age he could improve of course, but given his swing at everything mentality(his P/PA is Theriotian, 108th of 147 qualified), I think he's a little more exploitable than most. He's also an average defensive CF who didn't play an inning there last year, and doesn't have a great arm.
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Dempster?
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Cubzfan64's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
C.C. seems to hail from the Livan Hernandez school of overused heavy guys. They don't get injured, they just start pitching terribly. -
Pence also has a career line of .269 .318 .466 when his BABIP isn't 60-70 points higher than it should be, and he's nothing special defensively. Seriously, on an offense+defense basis, how much better is he going to be than Pie next year? If Pie OPS's .700? And he's the centerpiece for Peavy?
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Whaaaa? Slightly hyperbolic because of ages and Pence's lack of platoon split, but they aren't far off in what they would be expected to produce.
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If Hunter Pence gets to be the center of a package for Peavy, then Reed Johnson should work just as well.
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Colin Wyers: 2009 Marcels projections
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
It's horrible. They basically say Dempster was a fluke and Harden will collapse. Don't buy it. What about Marmol? His ERA wasn't over 4 was it? -
Colin Wyers: 2009 Marcels projections
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
If you look at the link, you'll see that the ERA's are regressed to the mean in a big way. Harden is one of only 18 pitchers out of 1000 projected to have an ERA under 4. And now that I moved the pitchers into an actual xls file, I found Kerry. 4.23 ERA. -
http://www.editgrid.com/user/cwyers/2009_Marcels_Projections Name PA AVG OBP SLG OPS DeRosa 496 .277/.357/.433/.790 Fontenot 342 .281/.363/.439/.802 Fukudome 495 .258/.360/.389/.749 Hoffpauir 240 .282/.354/.444/.798 Johnson 387 .277/.346/.406/.752 Lee 549 .299/.386/.501/.887 Pie 246 .251/.321/.386/.707 Ramirez 522 .291/.370/.524/.894 Soriano 451 .279/.346/.528/.874 Soto 481 .289/.372/.494/.866 Theriot 530 .284/.357/.368/.725 Cedeno ~250 ~.250/~.310/.~385/~.695 Cedeno's are estimates because I don't know which "Cedenro" is which. That's the average of the two, and they're pretty close to each other either way. I'm too lazy to do the pitchers right now, but they're there too. In short: Z: 4.07 ERA Lilly: 4.49 Marquis: 4.70 Dempster: 4.11 Harden: 3.70 Marmol: 4.01 Wuertz: 4.33 Samardzija: 4.21 And I can't find Wood.
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At least I'm not hand picking a single stat and then acting like it shows you're 100% correct. Look at his home/road splits and what Arlington did for other hitters in 2008 and then try to tell me with a straight face that he was the 5th most valuable player in the league. If you do you're just lying to yourself and are biased. Pretty simple. 3rd best hitter on his own team. 139 OPS+ in Arlington, obviously significantly better than what Arlington did for other hitters in '08.
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He had a 139 OPS+ in Arlington, it's not like he was hitting the same as everyone else in that park. His overall OPS+ is nearly Top 5 in the AL. He's 4th in the AL in Runs Created, 5th in Win Shares and VORP, 8th in EqA, 2nd in Equivalent Runs, and had a 9.4 WARP3. EDIT: I can only assume you're referring to the Awards voting thread, in which a whopping total of 8 people voted and placed Hamilton an average of 7th in AL MVP, and no higher than 4th.
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I like the idea of Shark starting
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Dallas Green's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
There's a difference in selling high on a reliever after a good season, and trading away a very good pitcher. Marmol isn't a reliever because he failed at starting, he has phenomenal stuff and he's had great success relieving for 2 years and 155 IP. If someone wants to sell the farm to make Marmol their closer of the future, that's definitely alright with me. But that's got nothing to do with selling high, it's just letting people overvalue a good player. -
Couple fun links to pass along: Celebrity Big 10 Jeopardy (NSFW language)
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it is impossible to screw the pooch against indiana. they got destroyed by iowa and ball state, they're extremely terrible. michigan state is pretty tough, but i just cannot see penn state losing their last game of the season at home with a national championship bid on the line. WVU/Pitt
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I think I'm finally over last night. I read something today to help put it in perspective, that Mizzou may be the only team in the country last year(save Hawaii) that didn't lose a game they shouldn't have. Having that continue for 2 years(especially with the high rank target on their backs) probably wasn't feasible, and at least it was to a pretty good team. My hope is that the OSU game prepped our O-Line on how to fix what they did wrong last week and be able to move the ball on offense, cause I don't see us winning without putting up 50 points.
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Dempster?
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Cubzfan64's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I don't have a strong opinion either way, but they can't let Dempster go and try to replace him internally. Another starter(the caliber is up for debate) would need to be added via FA or Trade. -
Oh come on, this is not what I needed to see. They were practically looking for plays to overturn all night and they missed that?
