Tim

Update: They lost #120 Such a shame. Reinsdorf and their 6 or 7 fans deserve so much better.

but but but... CubInNY told me that he's Drew Brees, but better.

I don't much care about the Sox themselves, but I know some White Sox fans whose misery I quite enjoy.

Personal preference, but I hate long-term deals for pitchers. I'd rather deal for the TOR pitcher and sign the FA to a shorter deal.

I get that. Name another such SP that we know will be available.

I wouldn't mind him if there's room in the budget.

Adding to my previous post to put actual names with things... Leaving off Soto, because I think one of the NY teams will drop $600m on him: Trade for Crochet (3 top 100-ish propects, all MLB-ready, Alcantara/Caissie/Triantos) Let's just say Robertson Bellinger stays Sign Carson Kelly Sign Flaherty That's a do-able offseason. 1 trade, 1 opt-in, 1 extension, & three FA. On offense, we'd have the following all reasonably projected at 3+ WAR: Happ Swanson Hoerner Seiya PCA Paredes The other positions would project to 2+ WAR: Bellinger Busch Kelly/Amaya Bench would be catcher + Shaw + Tauchman + whomever. To start the year, Shaw gets a Zobrist role to insert into the lineup depending on injuries, resting starters, matchups, performance, etc. That's probably a 25+ WAR team and top 5-10 lineups in baseball. Add Soto in place of Bellinger and it is probably a 28+ WAR team and top 5. Starting pitching would be damn good: Steele Crochet Shota Flaherty Taillon Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski / Horton Relievers would be deep and strong at the top: Robertson Hodge Lopez Miller Merryweather Pearson Little Roberts Almonte Keegan Neely Palencia Adbert Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski Rookies That's an easy 90 win team and could push 95, IMO.

Meant to add... If we trade for a really good starter who is still cheap, I'd really love to target Flaherty as the FA acquisition.

He had significant issues in 2021 & 2022. He looked somewhat washed last year and he's still down a tick or so from his peak. But he sure seems to have adjusted well to his new stuff. 30.1% k and 5.6% bb will get it done. I think he's a target because his performance this year is damn good, he's still only 28, but because of those issues he probably won't get a long-term deal. He's a good Jed-style, High AAV, shorter term contract target.

Just thinking about my overall priorities for the offseason: Sign Soto. He becomes the top/middle of the lineup anchor for years. He gets his own category here. I don't necessarily think the Cubs have to go get a "big bat", but if you can get Soto out of NY, you do it. I'd break the $500m level to get him. Maybe something like a 13/$520M offer? I'd go even higher if I could use the Ohtani trick and defer some of it. For me, Soto is the most "duh" combination of age, past performance, projected performance, etc. of any FA in many years (non-Ohtani category). Top of rotation SP. Our best pitchers have health / durability concerns. We have no middle of the rotation going into next year. Literally every young pitcher we hoped would establish themselves have had injury concerns. I'd probably look to do a trade here to get this pitcher. Bullpen anchor: It doesn't have to be a "closer", but someone that is going to be a really good bet to be a damn good pitcher. Talk Bellinger into staying if you don't land Soto. I'm not enamored enough with the other bat options at the top of the market that I'd value their performances enough more than Bellinger to commit the years to them. I don't think Vlad Jr will actually be on the market and I'm not sure I'd want to extend him at the likely cost. If Bellinger opts out, then look into trading for Rooker, signing Santander, etc. Upgrade at catcher. I'd do Carson Kelly, but there are options out there. Add a second SP. Mid-rotation is good enough, but another TOR would be fun! This would probably be a FA if the first player was a trade. Re-sign Lopez. He's been nails for the Cubs. He shouldn't cost a fortune to retain. I think that's probably it? For the young guys, I'd be trading away a couple to get the starter. I'd bring up Shaw to start the year and Zobrist him into the lineup to start the year and figure it out as we go based on performances and health. Even if we miss on Soto and Bellinger comes back, I'd expect a better offense. A full season of Paredes, PCA being comfortable the whole year and the upgrade at catcher should take care of that. Starting pitching should be very solid with NewGuy#1, Steele, Shota, NewGuy#2, Assad/Brown/Wicks/Wesneski/Horton. Relief should also be solid to really good with the additions, Hodge, Lopez, Miller, non-Staters, 2024 injured guys coming back, etc. So even if we have injuries, there's a lot of depth there to make it work. I'd think that's a 90+ win team. Add Soto in place of Bellinger and it's a really damn good team.

You were talking about having an NRI-level guy on the roster. They qualify. In the event that Hoerner is shipped out and we're trying to make the landing soft for Shaw, I'm not wild about spending money on someone like Lowe unless that player can also back up SS. We're going to have to have someone on the roster that can play a legit SS if Swanson gets hurt. Right now, that's Hoerner. If Nico is traded, our backup IF has to be able to play there. Shaw can probably fake it for a while, but I wouldn't want that additional pressure on him out of the gate. So if we're spending money on another IF option, let's have it be someone who can play a legit SS if the need arises. Or we can just keep Nico and have Shaw break into the lineup through a Zobrist-type role.

It really just depends on how you do the rotations.

We're not low on options to play 2B within the organization if you're looking to ease in Shaw.

The answer here is clearly this: sign Soto to play RF, pushing Bellinger to 1B Trade Busch + Nico to Seattle for one of their starters, pushing Shaw / Madrigal / Triantos / Mastro to 2B Trade for Vlad Jr. whether Toronto wants to trade him or not, pushing Bellinger to the bench Sign Kelly for C That gives a lineup with: CF - PCA DH - Suzuki RF - Soto 1B - Vlad Jr. LF - Happ 3B - Paredes SS - Swanson C - Amaya / Kelly 2B - Shaw / etc. Then Bellinger becomes your extra bat and you rotate through positions for off days. If everyone is healthy, everyone gets 88% of the PA's. But be more aggressive about putting guys with nagging injuries to the IL and playing the healthiest options. (this wasn't entirely serious, in case it wasn't obvious)

Could we just do this anyway?

Cam Smith with a playoff HR

There are a lot of miscellaneous things that none of those sites can account for. Any benefits in the contracts count, so if the team flies spouses to games or any random stuff like that, if it is in the contract it counts against the cap. fwiw, RosterResource has them about $689k above the limit: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/cubs

Thanks. They may very well have no intention of signing a guy with a QO this offseason. If Cody opts in, they may leave the offense alone other than signing a catcher and breaking in a rookie or two. None of the catchers project to get a QO this offseason. Not too many relievers get a QO and the Cubs have been allergic to signing relievers to that kind of money, anyway. Which just leaves starters and the Cubs may prefer to do a trade or two to fill that/those spots. (note - I'm not suggesting this is the right approach to the offseason, just that it could be Jed's) Also, the fifth round pick and $500k in IFA money are real losses, but they're not that bad when compared to the impact that a high-end FA could have. So they just may not care all that much.

What are the impacts on the draft and on international spending pools under this CBA? I know those were more of a deterrent than the financial penalty in past CBA's.

I should have said "if Bellinger leaves" on the second part of that post.

They don't necessarily need a trade. If they have 9 players for 8 spots (excluding catcher) and give playing time equally, everyone gets to play 87.5% of the time. So they could sign a big bat and work one of the young guys into the lineup at the same time.

He's already 27, btw. Also, part of the big knock on him is durability. He's only cracked 110 games once and he won't do it this year, either. And if he lacks the professionalism to play his best through the sucking, that's not great, either. In all seriousness, the Sox would have to be pretty dumb to trade him at this point. They'd be far better off giving him the first half to re-establish value before doing something at the deadline. Unless they get a godfather offer during the offseason, I think they only move him if they think he's going to continue to lose value next year.

And Rosenthal says otherwise within the past few days. Nobody knows at this point.

Yep. I'd also take the under on 110 games.

Good lord, why are you still trying to trade real assets for Robert? If he's a throw-in as a salary dump along with Crochet to lower the prospect cost, great. Are you thinking he's been coming around lately? Is it his September line of .269/.316/.327 with no home runs, and one stolen base in three attempts that is swaying you? Or his .218/.233/.297 line in August with a 1.9% walk rate and a .231 wOBA? Great stuff.