Tim

I'd actually guess he'd tie it to the new CBA timing, plus still being young enough to get paid bigly. That leaves himself the flexibility to opt out if there is more money available with new TV deals, streaming, etc Plus it gives an out of his team treats him like Trout.

I'd prefer the opt out to be after year 3 or 4 for Soto, but if he wanted one after year 2 I'd give it to him. You can always be the team to give him a new contract after that if you really want to keep him. In the mean time, you lock in two years of a top 5 hitter in baseball. There's really no downside to it other than planning the shape of the team in future years. You don't really want to be paying him for his age 34-38 seasons anyway. My biggest preference would be to sign him to a 4 year deal. Every additional year makes it a worse contract. So give him the opt out after year 4 and structure things to incent him to hit the market again at that point. If he doesn't opt out, front-loaded deals are also much easier to trade under the current CBA. Even if he's rocking things, I'd look to trade him in his early 30's before his performance drops off too much.

I completely disagree. If 30 year old Soto has outperformed his contract to that date and wants to go beat the $450M remaining on his deal to play through his 30's...bye! Thanks for the awesome years of baseball!

30 is generally not considered in the prime of a position player's aging curve anymore.

Screw that. I want them to opt out after 3-4 years. Get the best years of the contract and let someone else pay for the decline years? Yes, please.

And now for my "horsefeathers it, I want another WS win and it isn't my money" offseason: Sign Soto (12/$600M, some of the money deferred for cap purposes, variety of opt-outs) Sign Burnes (7/$245M, some of the money deferred for cap purposes, variety of opt-outs) Sign Jeff Hoffman (3/$48M) Extend Lopez Trade for Garret Crochet (2 top 50-ish prospects + decent add on - say Caissie, Mo, Will Sanders) Trade for Shea Langeliers and Mason Miller (Big package: Wesneski, Horton, Alcantara, Triantos, Pedro Ramirez) Bellinger opts out DFA: Wisdom, Alzolay, Madrigal, more. That's a (semi?) do-able offseason. 2 trades, 1 extension, & three FA. That's over the cap, but how much so depends on how much money Soto and Burnes are willing to defer. But Crochet, Langeliers and Miller are all cost controlled for years. Lopez shouldn't cost a ton with his background. Hoffman is a little under the radar, but has been fantastic in Philly and the #1 free agent reliever in fWAR this year by a wide margin. On offense, we'd have the following all reasonably projected at 3+ WAR: Soto Happ Swanson Hoerner Seiya PCA Paredes The other positions would project to 2+ WAR: Busch Langeliers/Amaya Bench would be catcher + Shaw + Tauchman + whomever. To start the year, Shaw gets a Zobrist role to insert into the lineup depending on injuries, resting starters, matchups, performance, etc. That is probably a 28+ WAR team and top 5 in baseball. Starting pitching might be top 3 in baseball: Burnes Steele Crochet Shota Taillon Brown / Assad / Wicks Relievers would be deep and strong at the top: Mason Miller Hoffman Hodge Lopez Tyson Miller Brown / Assad / Wicks Merryweather Pearson Little Roberts Almonte Keegan Neely Palencia Rookies That's an easy 95-96 win team and could easily push 100, IMO. We'd definitely need to start dumping salary after the first couple years as players hit their arbitration years and get more expensive, but we'll also get relief as some of the current players start exiting their deals. We'd still have Shaw and Cam Smith to headline our prospects. Also, I'd do my best to structure the contracts so that the opt-outs become attractive to Burns (in particular) and Soto. We want the first 2-3 years for Burnes and the first 4-5 years for Soto. Try to front load the deals during those years and make it attractive to them to hit the market again after those points.

I think there's a scenario where we sign one FA starting pitcher and also trade for one that's cost controlled. We used eight different SP this year, nine if you count Kilian's start. That is excluding bullpen games and "starter" games. There's risk with every SP on the roster, maybe excluding Shota. I'd feel a whole lot better with Assad and his 4.97 xERA and 4.64 FIP as a sixth starter. Wicks was very meh even when he was healthy. Wesneski was better, but still average at best. Brown looked fantastic, but it's hard to count on his health. I'd be okay with getting one SP this offseason, but I'd feel better with two.

I've gotta assume that Hodge graduated, as well.

Bigge's gone.

Just kidding. We probably would have had to pay him $800M to get him away from the Dodgers.

I'd argue that he's a big name coming off TJS, but I get your point Edited to add ... This is why I shouldn't post from my phone

If they don't get at least one big name, they'll hold him until the trade deadline to let him re-establish more value.

Geez, I just looked at the final numbers. The Cubs had five guys who ended their (complete) season at 3.4 WAR or better, and PCA would have joined them with more playing time. That's a hell of a foundation to build from.

Would anyone be interested in trading for Sandy Alcantara coming off surgery? He's already throwing from a mound, so he should pitch most of 2025.

Here you go. From earlier in the thread. (page 8?): ------------------------------------------------- Adding to my previous post to put actual names with things... Leaving off Soto, because I think one of the NY teams will drop $600m on him: Trade for Crochet (3 top 100-ish propects, all MLB-ready, Alcantara/Caissie/Triantos) Let's just say Robertson Bellinger stays Sign Carson Kelly Sign Flaherty That's a do-able offseason. 1 trade, 1 opt-in, 1 extension, & three FA. On offense, we'd have the following all reasonably projected at 3+ WAR: Happ Swanson Hoerner Seiya PCA Paredes The other positions would project to 2+ WAR: Bellinger Busch Kelly/Amaya Bench would be catcher + Shaw + Tauchman + whomever. To start the year, Shaw gets a Zobrist role to insert into the lineup depending on injuries, resting starters, matchups, performance, etc. That's probably a 25+ WAR team and top 5-10 lineups in baseball. Add Soto in place of Bellinger and it is probably a 28+ WAR team and top 5. Starting pitching would be damn good: Steele Crochet Shota Flaherty Taillon Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski / Horton Relievers would be deep and strong at the top: Robertson Hodge Lopez Miller Merryweather Pearson Little Roberts Almonte Keegan Neely Palencia Adbert Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski Rookies That's an easy 90 win team and could push 95, IMO.

I was bored, so I modified this one to include Soto... Adding to my previous post to put actual names with things... Sign Soto (12/$600M, some of the money deferred for cap purposes, variety of opt-outs) Trade for Sandy Alcantara + Calvin Faucher (2 top 100-ish propects + decent add on - say Alcantara, Rojas, McGeary) Trade for Garret Crochet (2 top 50-ish prospects + decent add on - say Caissie, Mo, Will Sanders) Bellinger opts out Sign Carson Kelly Sign Tanner Scott Extend Lopez That's a do-able offseason. 2 trades, 1 extension, & three FA. That's probably over the cap, but how much so depends on how much money Soto is willing to defer. He doesn't have the endorsement money that Shohei brings in. But the SP adds are both cost controlled, Lopez shouldn't cost a ton with his background. Kelly should be moderately priced. Scott is probably the other expensive add - I'd be fine with Robertson instead, but if we're pushing the chips in it makes sense to invest in a big-time reliever to add to the pen. On offense, we'd have the following all reasonably projected at 3+ WAR: Soto Happ Swanson Hoerner Seiya PCA Paredes The other positions would project to 2+ WAR: Busch Kelly/Amaya Bench would be catcher + Shaw + Tauchman + whomever. To start the year, Shaw gets a Zobrist role to insert into the lineup depending on injuries, resting starters, matchups, performance, etc. That is probably a 28+ WAR team and top 5 in baseball. Starting pitching would be damn good and probably top 5 in baseball: Steele Crochet Shota Alcantara Taillon Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski / Horton Relievers would be deep and strong at the top: Scott Hodge Lopez Faucher Miller Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski Merryweather Pearson Little Roberts Almonte Keegan Neely Palencia Adbert Rookies That's an easy 93 win team and could push 100, IMO. We'd likely need to start dumping salary after the first couple years as some players get more expensive, but we'll also get relief as some of the current players start exiting their deals. We'd still have Horton, Shaw, Cam Smith to headline our prospects. Maybe there's another big-boy path available, but I think this one covers the needs without being too crazy.

Just as a reminder...Opening day players from this year: 3B - Madrigal DH - Morel CF - Bellinger C - Yan Gomes I guarantee we go into next year with at least 33% of the opening day lineup turned over from last year. There's a good chance it'll be at least 44%. But go ahead and keep talking about bringing back the same team. It is funny stuff.

lol

Just curious...how many starting players would you guys like to see changed for next year? How about SP to start the year? RP? ------------------ ETA I'm looking for a percentage here. Like would 33% be enough change? 25%? Or are you looking for like 75% new players?

I will have him higher than that on my list.

lol

When you have a variable process (such as hitting) and the outcomes of that variable process land in your favor...you got "lucky". It isn't repeatable or predictable (other than it will happen a certain percentage of the time). You try to build a team such that the expected results are as good as they possibly can. But variability does exist and it can work to your favor or against it. Hence lucky and unlucky. Yes, many people use the word wrong. But that doesn't mean that it doesn't exist. I shall stop my pedantic side conversation. 🙂

Do you agree that variability exists? It seems like you are suggesting that every process is deterministic

Why would they trade their best pitcher?

I understand why you're saying the Cubs are currently an 83 win team. If they finish 3-3 against Philly & Washington, they'll literally be an 83 win team. But I'd argue there are good reasons to suggest the baseline is higher than that. By pythagorean wins, they're currently 14 games above .500, which would put them at 88 wins with neutral luck They had a crapload of injuries early in the year They've played much better in the second half since they got a bit healthier, PCA matured his approach, and we swapped out Morel for Paredes While I feel like I say this in the second half of every year, they should have much better bullpen options to start the season next year and seem to have found a legit closer in Hodge But I still agree with the overall point. They need to do more than just add a big bat, even if that big bat is Soto.