Tim

Yes, 32 member businesses whose core business is to compete in a zero sum game. One in which this conspiracy theory suggests that 31 teams are in on it to make one of those teams more competitive in that zero sum game than themselves. It makes zero sense at all.

I don't believe that the commissioner himself has the knowhow to rig the lottery ping pong balls, meaning he'd have to get other people involved. As soon as he does that, any contractor working on the project is a loose end. What's he going to do, start rubbing people out to keep the secret safe?

I'm no lawyer, but if the commissioner unilaterally did that, he'd at the very least get his ass sued by 31 other teams. I could also see a basis for fraud as there would be meaningful harm done to at least one other team. If it was done as a conspiracy, that could be even more damning.

I have no idea. 2005 was during the dark days of hockey for me. I really wasn't paying any attention at the time. Given that the vast majority of conspiracy theories are bs, though, my default position would be no. There are simply too many competing interests, too many people involved to keep it quiet for 18 years. Somebody would get drunk and brag about it. Someone would have had that decision go against them and would air their grievance to the public. Somebody would talk. There's also too much for the league to lose. Yes, one key franchise could have folded. Maybe. But if they get caught, then the whole league probably goes under. They could go to jail. The costs for getting caught are way too high compared to the rewards for making it work. That said, I don't know if they did the drawings in front of representatives of all 32 teams plus independent observers back then, though.

I don't know about the others, but I basically made two arguments: your demonstrated grasp of basic statistics is pretty flawed conspiracy theories are (almost) always wrong Others have detailed #1 far more than I did in my initial post. But you insisting that it is *obvious* that it was a conspiracy theory that landed Bedard in Chicago is *obviously* taking the exactly wrong default hypothesis. Since conspiracy theories are (almost) always wrong, the default should be that there was no conspiracy until overwhelming evidence proves otherwise. Other than the fact that Bedard ended up in Chicago, you've shown exactly zero evidence to support your claim. Sorry, you used McDavid ending up in Edmonton as evidence. Which, actually, is not evidence that anything was rigged this year. But it also contradicts any logic for *why* they NHL would rig things for Chicago.

That's why I stated that my #1 target in FA this year is only 24 years old.

Seriously, someone find me some good comps that give any level of faith in a slow, slugging 1B aging gracefully.

God no, please. To answer Tom - speed is a big part of athleticism. At least that seems to be the biggest correlation on which 1B maintain their production. Going through that list of 1B: Pujols - one of the best players ever until age 30. Horrible waste of playing time and money after age 32 Bagwell lasted longer, but was also unusually athletic Big Frank was amazing through age 29. He managed two good seasons after that. Thome his his peak later and lasted a little longer. But he was much worse after age 33 than before it. Cabrera started his decline at 31, played pretty well through 33, then fell off a bloody cliff. Palmeiro lasted longer. But he was also athletic enough to be somewhat tolerable in the OF. Freeman is a big outlier. But he's also very athletic for a 1B. Votto fell off the cliff after 33 Goldschmidt is aging reasonably well, but is also sneaky fast. Olerud is a an odd entry here - he's not a slugger at all. He still fell off a cliff after age 33. Berkman became inconsistent after age 28, had his last great year at age 32, was pretty bad afterwards Helton was great through age 30, had a couple of okay seasons at 31 and 33, but was otherwise bad McGwire used steroids to stay strong through age 36. Is that still an option? Mauer was pretty useless after age 30 Giambi was never the same after age 32, but had a bit of bounce for a couple years after putting up a 0.0 war year at age 33. He was negative WAR after that. Teixeira is a really good comp for Alonso...and was already in decline at age 30 and was a horrible drag on his team after age 31 Delgado had a softer decline than most, but was still mostly a 2-win player after age 31 McGriff averaged about (eyeballing it here) 5+ war per year through age 30. He averaged about 2 war after. He hung around better than most, though. Grace had a soft decline. But again, not a slugger. Ryan Zimmerman basically fell apart after age 28. The next guys on the list are Adrian Gonzalez, Rizzo, Derrek Lee, Edwin Encarnacion, and Mo freaking Vaughn. Who on that list inspires hope in Alonso being productive on a five year contract that starts at age 30 (there's no chance he gets eight years on the market)?

Pro wrestling was right there, man

The list of first basemen who don't drop off a cliff in their early 30's is really short. It is really only the much above average athletes at the position who hold up. That ain't Alonso. For reference - a list of top 1B over the past 33 years. If we trade for him at a reasonable cost for one year and then get the draft pick compensation, that's fine. But I don't want to give up a lot for him for one year and I absolutely do not want to sign him to a longer-term contract.

Moon landing? Kennedy killed by the CIA? Government is hiding aliens? I'm having a hard time reconciling that you only think conspiracies only happen in sports.

So...are you a flat, young, or hollow earther?

If you keep flipping a coin, odds are good that you'll hit a streak that absolutely does not look random. Yet it is. Random outcomes are going to have streaks that do not look random. In fact, it is worrisome to a statistician when those streaks do not happen over large samples.

You guys are so spoiled. If Illinois had a bye week, I'm not sure I'd like their chances right now.

If it costs more than BJ Murray to acquire him, I've got little interest in Alonso. I've stated why in other threads. I'm sure I'll have time to dig that up at another point. I'm sure we'll talk about it...extensively this offseason.

I would much, much rather invest dollars in Yamamoto than anyone else I see in FA. He's easily my #1 target. I haven't worked up the energy to do much planning beyond that.

I missed the second half and just watched the highlights. Are all of these statements correct: Once we built the lead to 28-7, our defense-first coach went stupidly conservative when throwing the ball was working The o-line racked up a whole bunch of stupid penalties that put the 4th quarter drives in jeapardy The 4th down call seemed good to me, but the play call seemed crappy The defense still stinks badly

This is the first time I've had a chance to actually watch them play this year. I don't know why everyone is complaining. Fields looks bloody fantastic!

hahahaha - Steratore doesn't know the rules

Seems like the field-level goal line cam would have had the perfect view of whether he grazed the turf there.

Happ was a big strikeout guy himself at one point.

Even on the first eight, at different times I have different weights for: The added risk for pitchers vs hitters What to make of outstanding performance across limited durations (Shaw) Thrill of Ballesteros reaching AA at 19 as a catcher...balanced by knowing he's got to get that body into shape going forward The appropriate weight for tools & performance (Alcantara, etc.) How much to factor in age relative to level Value of present hit tool vs present power vs projections (Triantos) And more. As scientific as I am about my day job, it bugs me a bit that I've been thinking about all these things for years and still don't have decent answers to how to properly weight those different factors.

I can't believe BJMJr is getting slighted like this! On an actual note, I would have gone with Caissie as POY, too.

My vote has been cast. If I filled it out again 10 minutes from now...it would probably not be the same.

Why do umpires hate Seiya?