Tim

re: Steele - I'm not as concerned this year as I am for next year. The "studies" I've seen about what happens when guys suddenly increase their innings are all old and very unscientific. But I recall them showing a much bigger impact in subsequent year performance. On the other hand, didn't the Cubs hire someone that specifically looks at pitcher injury prevention? Or was that the most boring dream ever?

dang it. Her spirit won't approve it!

I'm not sure Marge Schott approves the couple extra million to make a waiver claim.

Just a few methods of ranking pitchers based on performance and Gallardo's rank in the system amongst pitchers with 50+ IP: K-BB%: 15th K%: 30th BB%: 4th HR/9: 17th FIP: 10th ERA: 27th He's durable, has been young for his level (which you no longer seem to care about depending on the argument), has good control, and has thrown harder the past couple years. He also doesn't get much swing and miss, probably because his breaking stuff isn't great, didn't keep the ball in the yard this year, and his actual results have not been great as a result of all that. It's a good profile to have in the system, but that's nothing close to a #1 pitcher unless you foresee a revolution in his off speed pitches on the horizon.

Hendricks option is effectively 14.5M. If they let him go, there's a 1.5M buyout

Unlike a lot of prospects, I'd place his non-injury chances at seeing MLB action pretty close to 100%.

That was the "revocable" waiver process that allowed trades of MLB players that were able to get through waivers in August. You can still waive players any time you want to. You just can't decide to pull that back if someone claims them.

Are the claims processed one at a time or all at once? In other words, do the cubs need to submit all of their claims in advance? If so, that would limit the number of claims they can make.

As a guy that has been called the best defensive shortstop in the system for years now, adding significant offense makes him a very intriguing player.

I'll take a nice 22-0 victory today, please.

It is sooooo nice having a closer that throws a horsefeathers ton of strikes.

screw. this. ump

I very much want Love to be good enough that they don't get Caleb in the next draft.

Your argument really comes down to launch angle or FB/GB ratio. It is absolutely an important thing. But it isn't everything when evaluating a hitter. Guys to get to their production in different ways. His actual production isn't clearly differentiated from that third tier of guys I had him in. Everyone above him have advantages in age relative to league, tools, defensive value, contact rate, exit velocity or some combination of factors. I like Murray as a prospect. I accept that given what you emphasize, he's definitely a top 10 prospect in the system. But others of us (apparently all of us), have additional factors that we weight differently than you when looking at a ranking. The discussion isn't really about Murray as much as it is how to weight those different factors when evaluating prospects.

They were particularly horrible when he first got there. The most recent outings have been more promising. It's a thin hope, but there is *some* reason for hope.

Let's hope Keegan has gotten right lately

lol - Wisdom may be getting the start because it is his birthday today.

Bob Brenly would probably have a much different reaction here than he did to Aramis.

Be an average to plus defender at 3B? As a first baseman, he's not differentiated (results-wise) from a guy like McGeary. Yes, I'm aware of the difference between FB% there, but that isn't the only measure most people have for hitters. McGeary reportedly hits the ball a hell of lot harder, for example, and the performance numbers at AA are damn near equal. Overall, just from a position player perspective, I'd have him definitely behind: PCA - much higher total value with defense & speed Caissie - better performance, three years younger at the same level Alcantara - primarily based on the tools, but age / level comes into play, defensive value Shaw - 1st round pick, has been really good so far in his first exposure to pro ball I'd likely have him behind these guys: Ballesteros - age / level, raw performance is better, 1% chance of sticking at C Rojas - age / level, defensive value Canario - louder tools, same age / level higher, better performance (when not rusty) last 18 months Vazquez - defensive value is reportedly very strong as a plus SS, has hit very well this year Triantos - age/level, potential defensive value as a 2B, contact rate I'd have him in the same group as these guys unless I hear more about him playing a positive 3B: McGeary - If they're both 1B's, it is a tossup who is a better hitter (yeah, yeah, fly balls, blah, blah) Mervis - Another 1B, who has had a better season than either other guy (yeah, yeah, fly balls, blah, blah) Aliendo - the defensive value is a big plus here as a catcher Perlaza - He's doing now at 24 what Murray is likely to do next year at Iowa at age 24 Add in the pitchers and he's not really all that close to top 10 for me. Now, if I heard he's been playing a plus third base? That changes things and moves him up into that second grouping for certain. Note - I've done this off the top of my head and I'm probably forgetting guys.

Let's use these as stand-ins. They're not perfect, but they're reasonable for a rough-cut list. Unathletic: single season stolen base high less than 15 (I could go lower, but let's keep the list fairly inclusive) Large: let's say 6'2" and 220 or bigger I'll even provide a list of great 1B's since 1990 as a reference: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&players=0&pos=1b&startdate=&enddate=&season1=1990&season=2023

Who wants to take this challenge: "He'll also be needing a new contract as a 30 year old, large, moderately unathletic dude already playing a below average first base. That aging profile sounds horrible. It's really hard to come up with guys that fit that profile that continued playing well into their 30's. It's really easy to come up with 2-3 times as many guys that dropped off hard." I'll take the side of naming large, unathletic guys that dropped off rapidly in their 30's. I'm feeling pretty good with my lineup I've got in my head. Who wants to start naming the ones that aged well?

I'd personally be all about piggybacking Wesneski and Smyly right now. Figure out who starts based on the matchup, but don't let either one go through the order more than twice.

Don't get me wrong - I am not in favor of bringing him up right now unless he keeps hitting like yesterday. I'm just really excited about him getting back to what he was last year and what that can mean for the future.

Yes, it was a lazy and quick way to show that he ranks poorly amongst first basemen. But he's not a good defender overall when you dig deeper into the defensive metrics, either. He's really, really good at hitting home runs. He walks enough to be...okay...at getting on base. He's a negative at everything else. He'll also be needing a new contract as a 30 year old, large, moderately unathletic dude already playing a below average first base. That aging profile sounds horrible. It's really hard to come up with guys that fit that profile that continued playing well into their 30's. It's really easy to come up with 2-3 times as many guys that dropped off hard.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=1b&sortcol=20&sortdir=asc&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2020&season=2023 Yeah, he's bad.