dew1679666265
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Everything posted by dew1679666265
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Wells: ERA 4.44 FIP 3.80 xFIP 3.96/ 6.99 K/9, 2.8 BB/9/ 2.7 WAR He's really not been below average. FIP and xFIP have him well above average. Z has also been pretty underrated this year. He's not been worth his contract by any stretch, but his xFIP is better than it was in 2007, his K/9 is higher than it's been since 2006 and his BABIP is higher than it's been in his entire career. He's pitched ok this year. Gorzo is a young pitcher who's been decent this year and has strong minor league numbers. There's really no reason to think he can't be at least decent next year, if not better. As a team, the Cubs' pitchers are 11th in the majors in WAR. That's well above average and close to very good. The Cubs' starters are 12th in the majors in xFIP. It's not going to be a dominant staff, but it'll be good enough next year to not shell out $18+ mil over 4 years for a 32 year old Cliff Lee.
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Exactly.
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Do the Cubs really need pitching? Dempster's been really good this year (3.98 xFIP), Wells is looking like a mid-rotation type guy at least and Z and Gorzo are good bets to turn in decent seasons (mid 4s xFIP). I'd be really interested in a reclamation project like Brandon Webb, but I don't know that I'd pay ace money to a guy like Cliff Lee who's going to turn 33 next year. Halladay's getting $20 mil a year, Sabathia's getting $23 mil a year and even A.J. Burnett is getting $16.5 mil a year. I can't see Lee getting less than Burnett and he'll likely be a lot closer to Sabathia/Halladay money. With a deep pitching staff and a number of good prospects nearly ready, I don't want to shell out that type of money to a 32 year old. i see a steady rotation, but i'd like to see an ace. I'd like an ace as well, but not at $17-20 mil a year for a 32 year old. I'd rather save the money, go for a reclamation project and then try hard for Adrian Gonzalez in the 2011 offseason.
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I read it as the front office is disappointed in the veterans who are still there. I read it that the veterans who are still here are profoundly disappointed with the season. As with davearm, I'm not sure if they're disappointed in selling off vets or disappointed in sucking.
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Do the Cubs really need pitching? Dempster's been really good this year (3.98 xFIP), Wells is looking like a mid-rotation type guy at least and Z and Gorzo are good bets to turn in decent seasons (mid 4s xFIP). I'd be really interested in a reclamation project like Brandon Webb, but I don't know that I'd pay ace money to a guy like Cliff Lee who's going to turn 33 next year. Halladay's getting $20 mil a year, Sabathia's getting $23 mil a year and even A.J. Burnett is getting $16.5 mil a year. I can't see Lee getting less than Burnett and he'll likely be a lot closer to Sabathia/Halladay money. With a deep pitching staff and a number of good prospects nearly ready, I don't want to shell out that type of money to a 32 year old.
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When Dunn hit the free agency market before, his value was significantly depressed because he was viewed as just an outfielder. No team liked his OF defense and many wondered if he could play first base. Thus, his offers were fewer (the Cubs were scared away by the defense and them entering the bidding would have significantly raised his cost by itself) and his contract was less than his true value. Now, however, more teams will be comfortable with the idea that he can not only play first, but not be a liability there as well. With his offense being the usual stellar that it has been the past couple of years, his value is sure to rise and probably significantly. Add in that Pena, Cantu and maybe Branyan are the only real first base options out there outside of him and you have a possibility for $13-15 a year for 3-4 years. The economy is really the only reason I'm not certain he'll get what he's asking.
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Dunn will be overpriced? If he gets something close to the 4/60 deal he's looking for, yes, he will be overpriced - and I'm a pretty big Dunn fan. And I think he may get something similar to that since the other best free agents on the market are Jorge Cantu and maybe Russell Branyan. Pena. You're right, I forgot about Pena. Nonetheless, Dunn is by far the best 1B option on the market this offseason. Pena should help bring his price down a bit, though, I hope.
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Dunn will be overpriced? If he gets something close to the 4/60 deal he's looking for, yes, he will be overpriced - and I'm a pretty big Dunn fan. And I think he may get something similar to that since the other best free agents on the market are Jorge Cantu and maybe Russell Branyan.
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You're making good points and I don't necessarily disagree, but I keep thinking a move to first would keep him much healthier longer. And that's important for a guy with his kind of contract. It's important enough to at least try him there, I think - even if it's just a spring training experiment or something.
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He's not a Braves prospect, he's with the Reds. We could work out a separate deal for him, though.
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The biggest positive to moving him to first would be that it might save his legs a bit if he didn't have to roam around the outfield and, thus, he'd be healthier and more productive longer. It also opens a spot in one of the deeper parts of the minors (OF) while filling long term a significant weakness (1B). That's a good point on the defensive issues, however.
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Jerry Crasnick hops into the rumor mill.
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A-Ram to the Braves?
dew1679666265 replied to d_money's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I'm pretty sure I remember seeing somewhere that we would have gotten 2 "good" prospects from the Angels for Lee. No indication on who those "good" prospects were, though. -
Troy Renck
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Bruce Levine reporting it as well.
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Ken Rosenthal has.
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Tennessee is trying to call off the UT-UNC home and home series. I don't like that at all, I was really looking forward to that series.
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Solid game for the Titans. Vince looked ok, Javon Ringer looked good and Alterraun Verner made some plays. On the other side, I have no idea why Chris Simms is on the team. Kerry Collins is a solid backup and Rusty Smith has potential (he looked pretty good Saturday night). Simms just isn't a very good quarterback. Kenny Britt was also pretty inconsistent. LeGarrette Blount looked really good (and big), though. I also feel bad for Stafon Johnson. All that work to get ready for the season and now he's out 2-3 months with a dislocated ankle after his first preseason game. He was running very well too. I'm definitely pulling hard for him, seems like a really good kid.
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Basically, if you pick a QB, you get stats for him and whoever else plays QB for that team that game. So, if Favre gets hurt in the 2nd quarter, you aren't SOL. You also get the points from whatever Tavaris Jackson does. That's an interesting method.
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Carlos Zambrano's brouhaha and apology
dew1679666265 replied to Outshined_One's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Z's xFIP (4.55) is still currently better than his 2007 season (4.62) and slightly worse than his 2008 xFIP (4.45). -
18 days until the Saturday college football kickoff.
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I think it'd be a good move. There's a ton of depth at RB, while there's not nearly as much at receiver. In the scenario you presented, you can have Rice/A Johnson/C Johnson and still have the picks to go after running back depth like Arian Foster, Matt Forte, Ronnie Brown, whoever starts in Tampa, etc. How does the TeamQB work?
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Is Gonzalez not selling high? It depends on the rest of the package. I'd certainly be willing to put Wells in an Adrian Gonzalez trade though, just not as a throw-in. My thought on a hypothetical Wells/Gonzo trade is centering it around Wells and Vitters (or Colvin if they like him and don't like Vitters). The real question would be how much more we would have to add. I wouldn't want to add a whole lot, but I have a feeling we would if the Padres lean more toward scouting than sabermetrics.
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Fontenot to Giants
dew1679666265 replied to CubsInNC's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I heard Bartman was still a Cub fan, actually. -
Probably more a financial consideration for next year, since Lee is the only one of the big contracts ending. The only way to compete with all those hefty under-performing contracts is to fill the roster with cheap talent do some finger-crossing. Castro, Dewitt, and Colvin doesn't light the world on fire, but it does provide dirt cheap starter talent (with the hope of being better than replacement level). Colvin and DeWitt are up for debate but, unless this year is just a fluke, Castro's much better than just hoping for better than replacement level.