dew1679666265
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Everything posted by dew1679666265
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The Edmonds move was necessitated because Lou wasn't comfortable playing Pie. It worked out without a doubt, but it is another example of Hendry doing as the manager wishes. I don't know what kind of players Fredi would want Hendry to go after and I'm not necessarily advocating Fredi specifically in this debate. What I am doing is pointing out that who the manager is does make a difference with Hendry as GM because Hendry has a track record of listening to what his manager wants and going out to get those types of players.
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Lou was just as much involved in the "get more lefthanded" push as Hendry was, if not more. That led to DeRosa being traded (good move) and Aaron Miles being signed (very, very bad move), among other moves. It was also Lou's dislike of Eyre that got him moved and probably the same way with Wuertz. Ever since he took over as GM, Hendry has been extremely manager-friendly and seeks out the types of players his managers want. The manager doesn't pick the specific players I'm sure, but the manager does have very significant input on the types of players he wants Hendry to target.
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The point is, Kosuke wouldn't have to change his approach by moving to the top of the order. He already is a patient, selective hitter so he wouldn't have to change anything by hitting leadoff. As for his slugging improving, is it because of an approach change or is he just a really good hitter who's figuring out MLB pitching? His OBP has steadily increased as well in his three seasons, leading me to think he's simply a really good hitter who's adjusting to ML pitching now.
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I'm talking about difference in value, though looking at the stats that was a poor example. I also didn't know you included OPS in "traditional" stats. Generally "traditional" stats include batting average, SB, R, H, 2B, 3B, RISP, etc. My main preference for advanced stats (I look at OPS, WAR, OBP, SLG, BB% and K%) is they tell you a lot more in far fewer stats – they're also much more accurate in showing value. Instead of having to look at 4-5 stats to find how well a player slugs, using advanced stats I just have to look at SLG and OPS. It's a much more convenient method for me. I'm awful at figuring them out, though.
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Teams deal with more than just the top 100 players in baseball, though, and there's a big difference between a guy like Mike Cameron and a guy like David Eckstein. The advanced stats help to tell you just how big a difference there is, since batting average and other more traditional stats are, at times, misleading.
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I get bored by some of the more advanced statistical debates, but I also feel like looking at some advanced stats has made me much more knowledgeable and helped me to understand the game better. I'm not much of a math person either (I can do it for the most part, I just don't like it), but I enjoy using some stats more than just looking at average and counting stats. As for different people using different stats, that's part of why discussion is good. In many debates I've seen on this board, there wasn't really a "winner" and a "loser." It's much more laying out two points of view and seeing what can be taken from those points of view.
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From what I've seen (anecdotal, yes), the large bulk of fans tend to be casual. They root for the team, but don't follow it intensely. They simply either don't care enough to dig into the deeper stats (math isn't exactly a well-loved combo with hanging out watching a game for most people) or don't have the time. So they go largely off reputation, what they hear and which players seem to be trying hard at the times they watch. I don't think it's as much intentionally avoiding stats as it is not feeling that sports is an important enough area to focus large amounts of time pouring over numbers.
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In 6 of his 10 seasons (including this year), he's had an OPS better than .900. That includes a .948, .956 and .940 OPS. Saying .900 at best is underestimating how good he's been in the past.
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Manny claimed by the White Sox
dew1679666265 replied to E.J.'s topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
.288/.357/.339 Definitely not terrible for a 43 year old SS, but you'd like to see some form of slugging from him. -
Guys at the top of the order should be one of two things (or both, ideally) - either one of your best overall hitters or a guy who excels at getting on base (high OBP). Kosuke doesn't really fit the former, but he definitely fits the latter. His SLG is improving, and that's a good sign, but his main strength is still his patience/OBP. A .362 career OBP and .379 OBP this year are very good numbers to put at the top of the order and get the most PAs on the team. If we have a couple of guys with better on-base skills than Kosuke to move to the top of the order, I have no problem moving him down in the order and taking advantage of his solid slugging. However, we shouldn't move an inferior hitter up in the order simply because Kosuke slugs a decent amount.
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If anything, I think Kosuke should permanently be placed in either the 1 or 2 spot in the order. Preferably the leadoff spot. It plays to his biggest strength – OBP.
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Kosuke career in leadoff spot: .243/.364/.380/.744. OPS is a little low, but mainly because he hasn't slugged at all in the leadoff spot. There's little wrong with that OBP, however, and that's the most important thing for a guy hitting leadoff. What stats reflect that he shouldn't be a leadoff hitter? I would bet it's his AVG and SB. He's definitely not been a good basestealer his entire career. 23 SB to 20 CS is pretty awful, though it shouldn't play that big a role in determining whether or not he hits leadoff. Average shouldn't be a factor at all (I know you're not promoting either of these, by the way).
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It's more of an opportunity cost than anything for me. While he's an older player who had played significant professional baseball, he's still adjusting to and learning the major leagues (as his consistent improvement from his first year to this year shows) and sitting him on the bench for the past month or two has hurt the increase his trade value could have received by playing him this year. Showing a significant increase from year 1 to year 2 and then from year 2 to year 3 is significant, but his improvement will be lessened because he was stuck on the bench for an extended period of time. Also, trades don't work simply on the idea that player x is valuable to a team so that team will pay what it feels is comparable for the value they're receiving. Leverage and how desperate a team is plays a big part in making a trade and the Cubs forfeited some of that leverage by showing that they value Colvin over Kosuke.
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Kosuke career in leadoff spot: .243/.364/.380/.744. OPS is a little low, but mainly because he hasn't slugged at all in the leadoff spot. There's little wrong with that OBP, however, and that's the most important thing for a guy hitting leadoff. What stats reflect that he shouldn't be a leadoff hitter?
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Hey, if you're going to get a penalty, go all out. The next play is pretty classic too.
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That's my main point, we know Kosuke will be good if we just play him and Colvin still has upside to reach. If we had claimed Beltran, we'd have been pretty much forced to get nothing for Kosuke, while paying all his salary (because we'd have no leverage), and put off finding out better what we have in Colvin in the hopes that an old, previously injured Beltran could get back to a .900+ hitter while paying him $18.5 million. If we had a need in the OF or if the Cubs felt he could transition to first, it might be worth taking a flier on him. But there's really no good place to put him with the crowded outfield without pushing out a likely better option.
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Manny claimed by the White Sox
dew1679666265 replied to E.J.'s topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
He'd be a much bigger name outside of San Diego, but I think Brian Roberts would have been as well. Maybe not top 10, but certainly on the level of a Robinson Cano. -
He's due $18.5 next year, the final year of his deal. My biggest question would be where to put him. Could he conceivably play first? If not, there's really nowhere to put him since we have Colvin, Byrd, Soriano and Kosuke all in the outfield and Brett Jackson potentially ready to come up sometime in the second half of next year.
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Pretty crappy game all the way around between the Titans and Panthers. Neither team scored until the third quarter and the offenses were pretty inept it sounded like. It didn't sound like Vince did awful, but he wasn't as good as I was hoping. Jared Cook had a nice long touchdown, though, and that's a good sign.
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Manny claimed by the White Sox
dew1679666265 replied to E.J.'s topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Manny's a bigger name than any of those guys, but I don't know that Roberts and Harden are lesser names than Gonzalez. Roberts was a fairly big name back a few years ago in his prime and Harden still is. -
Manny claimed by the White Sox
dew1679666265 replied to E.J.'s topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Yeah, I could be way off on that. I was thinking the Cubs got in late on him much like the Astros and ended up just missing out on him. I have a bad memory though. -
Manny claimed by the White Sox
dew1679666265 replied to E.J.'s topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Peavy Brian Roberts Harden Back a bit further: Beltran (I think we were considered longshots) Thome Going way back, weren't we really close to getting Randy Johnson back in 98 when he was traded to Houston? I seem to remember hearing we were getting really close to acquiring him. -
Am I misunderstanding the rule or was Peyton correct to argue the call in question? It looked like the umpire was behind him when he snapped the ball.
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So far he's been a wide receiver who can't catch the football. He had an ok season last year, but had some drop issues. This year, he showed up so out of shape to OTAs that he had to sit out the first couple of days before taking part. Reports are he's been pretty up and down throughout training camp, though the week before the Cardinal game he apparently was really good. We really need a couple of him, Nate Washington and Jared Cook to step up this year to take pressure off CJ. Britt's no doubt very talented, but has really struggled being consistent and catching the ball.
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One thing that could change my mind would be hearing what the budget will be after the year. If Ricketts dramatically decreases the budget, then affording the $20 or so million Gonzalez wants will be incredibly difficult, if possible. Then a player like Dunn might be the best we can afford and still be able to plug some other holes. My biggest concern with Dunn is that he'll end up getting upwards of $14-15 million a year and, at that point, not be worth the contract and possible a burdensome contract his last couple of years. If he gets less than that, then I'll agree that we should go with the certainty over Gonzalez.