dew1679666265

While I won't argue the point about Neifi, I still think Izturis can improve at least some. He's shown signs the past few seasons, while healthy, of getting progressively better. Now I don't know if he'll ever become great as a hitter but I think the evidence is enough to take a chance on him for next season. The biggest key for Izturis will be staying healthy, something he hasn't done the last couple of seasons. I don't like taking a chance on him; when you have two similar players who aren't that great offensively, it's a waste of roster spots, money and a tradeable asset (Maddux). The Cubs have major holes, especially on offense, and their budget isn't infinite. I can see your point and at the time of the trade I agreed with you completely. Since then though I've looked closer at his numbers when healthy the last couple of years and he's shown that he might just be figuring out how to hit. I wouldn't shed a tear if we DFA'd Neifi today and there might be an outside possibility that whatever new manager we have next season might have no need for him and thus DFA him. Whether or not that happens though, Izturis is a better player now and has a solid chance to get better (he's only 26 don't forget). That's why I'm willing to give the kid a chance.

While I won't argue the point about Neifi, I still think Izturis can improve at least some. He's shown signs the past few seasons, while healthy, of getting progressively better. Now I don't know if he'll ever become great as a hitter but I think the evidence is enough to take a chance on him for next season. The biggest key for Izturis will be staying healthy, something he hasn't done the last couple of seasons.

Exactly. I'm not yet sold on Izturis enough to say that he's the next coming of Omar Vizquel, though it's possible, I also believe it's offbase to call him the next Neifi. He's 26, most players are just getting to the majors around this age, he's been around for 4 years. There is some talent there, I just hope he stays healthy long enough for that talent to rise up.

Absolutely. Neifi is a better defender than Izturis. Cesar's 2005 fielding rate: 108 His career fielding rate: 101 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/izturce01.shtml Neifi's 2005 fielding rate: 115 His career fielding rate: 111 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/perezne01.shtml By PMR, Neifi is shown to have been much better in 2005: http://anaheimangelsblog.blogspot.com/2006/01/pmr-redux-shortstops-update-david.html Just because some Dodgers fans (who probably watch as many Cubs games as I watch Dodgers games) think he's the best fielder in baseball doesn't mean it's true. And Dewan's method of rating middle infielders is pretty flawless, by the way. Well, there's an example of it. Cesar was hurt half of 2005, and both his offense and defense suffered from it. There have been multiple places that said his defense suffered from it, and I think Izturis himself might have said that his defense was worse than usual because of the injuries. The defensive metrics have him as better than his career average though! Also, doesn't the numbers for Neifi concern you just a bit? Why would a player who is getting older and was always known for his defense suddenly have a better than average year? That's what I don't understand-his speed has certainly gone down since he was a younger player-so what has dramatically improved? As I mentioned in another thread, BP had Sosa as a 7 in 2004, while Ichiro had a 1 that year. I simply cannot look at those numbers and say that they are right, that Sosa was a much better right fielder than Ichiro that year defensively. It just doesn't add up for me right now-I think they are getting closer with defensive metrics, but there are still many numbers like that one right there that just make you wonder about how reliable it actually is. just give it up, we are living in a new baseball age, an age where all but a few GM's base their philosophy on more than just anecdotal evidence. i'm not sure why it's so hard to see. there's no use in hiding from it, the truth will set you free. So are we just supposed to accept the metrics blindly without question then? Them saying that Sammy was a better defender than Ichiro in 2004 strikes me as more than a bit odd and I have a difficult time accepting a formula that would produce that type of result. Maybe this is a one time mistake but who knows if it's not the system that's flawed? I like the idea of defensive metrics to quantify what I feel is an important part of the game, but I can't just blindly accept such a glaring mistake, especially when more may be made later on.

Thre is some truth to this. But seriously, this eppisode is entirely indicitve of how the Cubs run their team-or Baker for that matter. Brian makes an excellent point-why not play Izturis @2nd? If he understands the position, why mess with Cedeno? and if you are hell bent on switching Ronny's position, then why wouldnt you play him there THE FIRST oppertunity you have (Tuesday) and stick by the kid? OOORRR how about a minor league stint to learn the position? nope. Baker freezes his bat and when Ronny trips, baker and the media (Tow-The Line Sullivan) jump down his throat. The real story for Friday was teh offense still sucks. imagine that. 1st bolded- The Cubs are playing Ronny at second because Izturis is better defensively at short and if you're going to have both in the lineup, you might as well put the better defender at his natural position. Also, the likelihood is that if Cedeno is with the team past this year he will most likely be at second thus you give him some time in low pressure periods. 2nd bolded- If your so bothered that they moved him at all, why complain that they didn't just throw him out there? It's much better for him to work for a little while one-on-one with one of the coaches on footwork, etc. than to be just thrown out there, that would show much more inept coaching. 3rd bolded- Not a terrible idea but I don't think that's the best idea. We're not going anywhere now anyway so AAA is not much less pressure than the majors right now anyway. 4th bolded- I have no clue where your getting this. Baker commented on the mistake made by Ronny after he was asked about it. He didn't seem to give any opinion on it, just what Ronny should have done and what he did. I'm not sure what you wanted him to say there.

You mean someone like Andruw Jones? :wink: Andruw is just as much of an impact player as Soriano ever was. Andruw's career OPS+ is 116 to Soriano's 111, and Andruw's puts up his numbers more consistently (last 3 years were 121, 113, 133 vs Soriano's 128, 98, 110). Andruw gets on base a whole lot more, and SLG is about a wash. I never fully supported the idea of getting Soriano, but this team needs a lot of offense. I wouldn't mind seeing both of them added for next season. Considering all players in a deal must clear waivers, getting him now makes more sense because the cost would probably be a lot lower than in the offseason. The Cubs wouldn't be able to move any top prospects like Pie, Marshall, etc. right now -- somebody like Pittsburgh would surely make claims on them. Well, that is certainly a great option. I wasn't trying to say that I perfer Soriano over Jones if they both came with the same cost, but if I could only have one, I'd take Soriano only because I could keep the prospects. If we have enough payroll to get both, then that would be wonderful-Jones is a great ballplayer. I just wasn't sure that their two huge salaries could both be combined on the team. I suspect we could afford two of Soriano, Jones and Lee but it would kill our chances of adding a frontline starting pitcher (Zito, Schmidt, etc). Just a matter of deciding what is more important. Lee, Andruw, and Jacque would look awesome in the outfield though. 8)

He's signed through 2007 at $13.5m. We could extend him if we felt it appropriate of course. I'd rather spend $2.5m more (at most) and lock up Soriano in the off-season. Why? Besides this season, I don't think Soriano's stats has been better than Jones' besides this season. I would probably have to agree with the Soriano talk, with the only big reason is that their stats have not been far enough apart to spend the prospects on Jones-if we sign Soriano, we could spin those players off for another impact bat. That doesn't mean that I oppose getting Jones altogther though-he's still a very good ballplayer that would be worth it. Or we could use the prospects for Jones and try to sign Carlos Lee or somebody like that.

He's signed through 2007 at $13.5m. We could extend him if we felt it appropriate of course. I'd rather spend $2.5m more (at most) and lock up Soriano in the off-season. I would prefer Andruw myself. He's a year younger, 29 versus Soriano's 30, very similar career stats( Jones-.267 BA .343 OBP .503 SLG .847 OPS Soriano-.281 BA .325 OBP .512 SLG .837 OPS), and as a tiebreaker if you will plays excellent defense. I've watched many Braves games over the years and love Andruw both offensively and defensively. If he doesn't cost the farm plus some I say go hard after him.

He's signed through 2007 at $13.5m. We could extend him if we felt it appropriate of course.

I'm not sure what the equivalents in our system would be but the Red Sox offered a package of Coco Crisp, Craig Hanson, and a prospect. The Braves demanded Lester too and the deal never happened. I'm guessing maybe Pie, Marshall, Marmol, Hill might get it done, though that's an awful lot to give up. I'd take Andruw very happily though. Wonder if a monster deal of Pie, Marshall, Marmol, Hill, and Cedeno for Jones and Marcus Giles could happen?

To a much more limited amount than pitching saves runs and offense scores runs. Defense in baseball is about on the level of special teams in football. It's important, but you'd be crazy to build a team around it. I agree with this statement but I think it raises an interesting point. Football teams do go out and add return men, Dante Hall for the Chiefs and Pacman Jones for the Titans, with the intent to improve the special teams thus improving the team overall. Building off your argument, the Cubs have done exactly this adding Cesar Izturis to a decent defense. The key now will be to go out in the offseason and getting some good offensive players to compliment Izturis' glove. Just like the Chiefs need to improve their defense and the Titans simply need talent on offense and defense to compliment each teams stellar return games. The special teams comp isn't all that good, because you can score on special teams, not in the field in baseball. There is no Danta Hall equivalent on defense in baseball. Defense is more like the kickoff and punt coverage team in football. You have the kicker, but he also works with offense, and the vast majority of the coverage guys are just backups for other positions, and not highly paid. Not to mention, replacable at the drop of a hat. This is not always the case as multiple teams over the years have actually put starters on special teams coverage in order to stop the other team from getting ideal field position, though most of the time it is rookies getting a chance to get some action. I do not advocate building a team around defense and letting everything else work itself out, but I do feel that defense does have enough impact on the game to not ignore it completly, much like kick coverage people make things harder for the other team to score. The real question is though, is it not important not only to score runs yourself but also to stop the other team from scoring (hence combining pitching and defense)?

There are smaller raises and then there's $25K. I think he'll get a 4/$32M offer from at least one team out there. I hope it's not the Cubs. If somebody offers 4/$32m then I hope the Cubs wish him the best and look elsewhere. I like Pierre but before we give him a bigtime deal, I want to make sure that he can continue to produce like he has since June, thus the hope for a 1 year $6-8m deal. It may be that he chooses that route in order to garner perhaps a bigger deal possibly closer to $10m if he can have a big year next year.

I don't disagree that Aramis may desire more in order to not opt out but if he signed a long term deal backloaded (though you can debate the positives behind backloading) then his first year would be close to the same as is currently listed. I included Blanco simply because I suspect we'll go after him or a similar type defensive backup for Barrett, may pay less money though. I figured Z would get more money but I'm not sure what kind of money he'll demand, though again if we backload (which may be a good idea with him) it may not be more than a couple million. The FA pitcher would be fine but it would mean less emphasis on the offense and I figured that we'd focus more on what the farm cannot readily produce, ML ready hitters. And as far as the bench, I doubt Dusty's here next year so the lack of vets may not be a problem and there is a bit of a lack of power, I hadn't noticed that. I think the Trib will raise payroll, that's one of the positives MacPhail has brought is that he's opened the pocketbooks some. Finally, sorry if I implied that you didn't think we could upgrade, I just was surprised myself at how much potential we have, payroll wise, to upgrade. I also think that Izturis will improve his numbers though how much I'm not sure.

To a much more limited amount than pitching saves runs and offense scores runs. Defense in baseball is about on the level of special teams in football. It's important, but you'd be crazy to build a team around it. I agree with this statement but I think it raises an interesting point. Football teams do go out and add return men, Dante Hall for the Chiefs and Pacman Jones for the Titans, with the intent to improve the special teams thus improving the team overall. Building off your argument, the Cubs have done exactly this adding Cesar Izturis to a decent defense. The key now will be to go out in the offseason and getting some good offensive players to compliment Izturis' glove. Just like the Chiefs need to improve their defense and the Titans simply need talent on offense and defense to compliment each teams stellar return games.

That's very possible and if that's the case I would look for someone worth the money we'd be paying them. The good thing is that the Yankees are probably out of the bidding for Lee after acquiring Abreu.

I think all three of these salaries are on the low side. Juan will get significantly more than a $25K raise. He doesn't deserve it, but he'll get it. Lee and Soriano could easily be $2M to $3M a year higher. All it takes is one team on the open market willing to overpay, and that happens year after year after year. I agree with Lee and Soriano possibly ending up with more but I wouldn't pay much if any higher for either, I'd look for another option because neither is worth more. Pierre I think might take a smaller raise on a one year deal hoping to net a huge contract after a big year. Also, my main point was that we can still have some type of positive upgrade to the team even after the Izturis trade.

Your post got me interested to see exactly what our financial obligations were for next year and I found something that I find very interesting. Going by the contracts on the site you provided, I found that we likely can afford some big time acquisitions in the offseason even after the Izturis trade. These salary calculations may not be 100% correct but I believe they are nearly complete. Lineup RF- Jones 5m CF- LF- 3B-Aramis 11m 2B- SS-Izturis 4.5m 1B-Lee 13m C-Barrett 4m Bench Murton 330k Perez 2.5m Blanco 1.5 m Pagan 327k Theriot 300k Starting Pitchers Z 7.5m Prior 4m Marshall 300k Marmol 300k Guz/Hill/etc 300k Relievers Wuertz 355k Eyre 3.5m Howry 4m Dempster 5m Wood 2m Ohman 610k Rusch 2m This comes to a total of 72.5m with holes at CF, LF, and 2B still left to fill. I projected what I thought was likely to cost us to bring in big acquisitions at those spots and I think I'm fairly accurate on these. CF- Pierre 6m LF- Carlos Lee 12m 2B- Soriano 12m For a total of 30m, bringing our overall salary total for 2007 up to 102.5m. This is higher than our current payroll and would demand a 3 or 4 million increase in max payroll but I think the Tribune would consent if we could pull in these guys. If we wanted, we could also go cheaper at second and sign a veteran pitcher (Zito, etc) also. If anybody finds any discrepancies let me know but as far as I can tell and project this seems pretty accurate.

That JT Snow signing really looks out there right now. I could be remembering wrong but I think I remember Snow being signed primarily as a backup. I don't have any proof but I thought I heard when he signed that he'd be at most a platoon player but probably a backup. I think Snow was insurance for Youklis and to provide late inning defense. Exactly. I think his day of consistently starting are over. Great glove for the late innings though.

That JT Snow signing really looks out there right now. I could be remembering wrong but I think I remember Snow being signed primarily as a backup. I don't have any proof but I thought I heard when he signed that he'd be at most a platoon player but probably a backup.

While I have never found any empirical evidence stating that speed on the basepaths can hurt a pitchers focus, I do believe that it actually does. My belief comes mostly off of experience playing and watching the game, I've heard and seen the impact a fast runner can have on a pitcher. I can't give exact quotes but I have heard numerous pitchers discuss how difficult it is to focus only on the batter when Rickey Henderson or somebody like that is dancing around at first base. If you want it proven by A + B = C, I can't do that though.