Jason Ross

Alright, got some life here. Go get him Nick.

City connect is a blight across the league. Come to my Ted Talk next week titled "Why I'm a Uniform Crumudgeon and Why You Should Be Too".

Finger's crossed on Hendricks. If they're going to insert him back in the rotation, he just cannot be the guy who we've seen this year. I'm really rooting for him to figure it out and find it. With that said, the trend on that release point is pretty interesting and I can't really explain it, as it certainly has a downward trend. It's also interesting because he was not particularly good in 2021 but was in 2023 and they had similar release points. I can't really explain those things, so hopefully he and the Cubs can. With hope it's fixable and I'd at least like Hendricks to go out as a pretty decent rotational arm. He deserves to leave the Cubs with dignity as he's been such a good member.

In all transparency: with school still rocking and the Cubs being good, it's been hard to catch as many MiLB games right now, as I have in the past. I'll be able to give it more time in about 30 days. The bit I did see didn't appear different to my eye, but it's kind of hard to tell on the iPhone4 level of definition and crummy angles. I'd default to statcast data...but nothing yet at the Double-A has been made publicly available. Triantos did have a great week! I try to limit these to around 4-5 per level for brevity's sake, so sometimes guys just are left off. He's been really good this year, deserves the praise.

It's always good to win games at the minor-league level, but the real thing is player development. In a perfect world, player development would lead directly to wins, but sometimes, it doesn't. This week is a perfect example of losses piling up but a lot of really good performances down on the farm. Who had a good week? Image courtesy of © Lily Smith/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK Iowa Cubs (2-4) The Iowa Cubs are a shell of what they were on Opening Day. With Ben Brown, Alexander Canario, Hayden Wesneski, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Mervis all on the Chicago Cubs instead, the team is missing much of their firepower. After dropping four of six to Buffalo, Iowa heads home this week to face the Omaha Storm Chasers, looking to right the ship. 🔥Jake Slaughter, 3b: 181 wRC+. 17.4 K%, 17.4 BB%, 1 2B, 2 HR: Good week for the former LSU Tiger. Slaughter had some helium going into last year, but he struggled in Iowa. While I still wonder if he's got legitimate MLB upside, the number of injuries the Cubs have had this year should remind us we're one or two more away from seeing most of the Iowa roster right now. Slaughter has some versatility, so if he can get his bat hot, this might be his best chance to make a big-league impression. 🔥Luis Vazquez, SS: 124 wRC+, 33.3 K%, 4.8 BB%,, 3 2B: The shortstop continues to hit this season, with this week pushing his season wRC+ over 140. He does sport a .426 BABIP, but that's not always a bad thing at the minor-league level; sometimes it just suggests someone is ready for a new challenge. In another organization, Vázquez would have likely seen his shot come already, but much like Slaughter, we're probably one injury (depending on the position) away from that happening. 🔥Owen Caissie, OF: 177 wRC+, 37.5 K%, 25 BB%, 1 2B: Caissie is doing just about everything short of hitting home runs right now, but I think that's coming. The strikeout rate was a little elevated this week, but he's doing everything else well. Pitchers are finally throwing strikes to Caissie in the middle of the zone, and I expect the power surge will come with that. Keep an eye out: I think we're like a week or two away from a handful of home runs coming. 🤷‍♂️Brennen Davis, OF: 123 wRC+. 31.8 K%, 22.7 BB%, 1 HR: The strikeouts are always concerning, but it's good just to see the outfielder playing right now. He's had such a bad beat when it comes to injuries. The good news is that the power seems to be there; the exit velocity on his homer was 113 MPH, which is up 4 MPH than his max in 2022. There's still a decent chance he can be something. Tennessee Smokies (3-3) Not the greatest week for Tennessee, but a much better one, too, as the Smokies split a six-game set. Most games were close, and the best news was that a few of their struggling players had nice rebounds. Tennessee is back in action at home this week against the Biloxi Shuckers. 🔥Cade Horton, SP: 5 IP, 6 K, 0 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: I'm pretty confident this will be Horton's last start in Tennessee, and it was another dominant effort. On the season, he's striking out a hitter per inning, walking next to no one, and has given up just two runs in 16 innings. More importantly, Horton made it through five frames and threw 72 pitches. I've always had June 1 as a major checkpoint for Horton, but the progress he's made with the changeup (coupled with the injury situation) has me wondering if that will turn into May 1. This guy is probably ready today. 🔥Moises Ballesteros, C/DH: 243 wRC+, 20 K%, 15 BB%, 1 2B, 1 HR: I've done a poor job of listing Big Mo' on the hot-or-not lists this year. All he's done is rake. He's walking more and he's striking out less; he's hit three home runs. He's doing everything you can ask. He's not even 21. We give a lot of credit and hype to what Jefferson Rojas is doing (and he's deserving of that hype), but Ballesteros is just crushing baseballs. What a find he's been. 🔥Brandon Birdsell: 5 IP, 7K, 2 BB, 0R, 0ER: Much better, and perfect timing. With the depth issues that Iowa is having, seeing Birdsell (an advanced arm who's pitched in the Big 12) find some success in Tennessee is a good thing. If he can get on a mini-roll, he could quickly make his way up to Iowa. 🔥Kevin Alcantara, OF: 157 wRC+, 22.7 K%, 0 BB%, 1 2B, 2 HR: Remember when Alcántara didn't have a single hit on the year? All of a sudden, he's sporting a 111 wRC+, has seen his strikeout rate drop to 26%, and has four home runs. There are still some places to work on the Jaguar, like coaxing a few extra walks, but overall, it's been a great return to form over the last 10 days. 🥶Matt Shaw, 3b: -3 wRC+, 28 K%, 8 BB%: It's never good to see someone struggle, but Shaw getting his first test of resiliency is probably a good thing for his development. Having him work through a few bad weeks and seeing how he adjusts to the league adjusting to him will let us know a lot about who he is as a prospect. South Bend Cubs (2-4) South Bend was always going to have some hurdles to clear to start the season, and the year has kind of gone to script. They've yet to win a series. South Bend will look to turn things around this week on the road against the Lansing Lugnuts. 🔥Will Sanders, SP: 3IP, 6K, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: Sanders was seen as a more advanced prospect than this assignment suggested, due to pitching in the SEC, so seeing him throw well this week was a good thing. Sanders has really struggled, so it's awesome to see this kind of game for him. He could be in line to be promoted to Tennessee mid-season, and with Horton and Birdsell hopefully moving to Iowa, he would find open rotation spots. This is a good first step. 🔥Jefferson Rojas, SS: 113 wRC+, 18.2 K%, 13.6 BB%: This feels like a pretty ho-hum week, until you once again remind yourself: he turned 19 this week and is in High-A. Given that, I'd be remiss if I didn't continue to copy and paste his name into this section. Rojas has a wRC+ nearly 30% better than league average on the season, You should be pretty darn excited. 🔥Ed Howard, SS: 118 wRC+, 10 K%, 10 BB%, 3 2B: I thought we might be getting to the end of the line for the former first-round pick, but Howard strung together a strong week. He still sports a paltry 49 wRC+ on the season, but this week was a sign that maybe we can't entirely give up on him yet. None of this is to say ignore the rest of the season so far, but maybe Howard has enough left in the tank that he can become somewhat interesting again by season's end. At the very least, I owed it to Howard to highlight the best week he's had offensively in quite some time. 🤷‍♂️Drew Gray: 3.1 IP, 6 K, 3 BB, 1 R, 0 ER: Drew Gray is having such an uneven season. On one hand: Gray sports a strikeout rate over 37% and has a 1.59 ERA. That's an awesome line for the lefthander--that is, until you notice the 26.4 BB%. That's 14 walks in just over 11 innings pitched. Gray simply cannot walk that many. It's early, and clearly, the stuff is there when the strikes come, so don't abandon ship or anything. 🥶Luis Devers: 2;.1 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 9 R, 9 ER: Yeah, that's not good. The 2022 MiLB Pitcher of the Year has struggled to recapture his form and consistency since an injury in 2023. Devers has had a few good outings, but this one was not it. Hopefully, he continues to rehab his way back into the pitcher he looked like he could be before. Myrtle Beach Pelicans (3-3) A three-win week is the best outcome the Pelicans have had all season, even if it is baby steps. The Pelicans will hope to win their first series this week, as they travel to Salem. 🔥Christopher Paciolla, 3b: 165 wRC+, 37 K%, 0 BB%, 2 2B, 1 HR: The 2022 mid-rounder is finally starting to show why the Cubs liked him coming out of high school. Yes, the strikeout-to-walk ratio is imperfect right now, but I'm willing to ignore that as he's worked his season wRC+ to over 110. Paciolla remains young and has upside. He could become a breakout type this season. 🔥Juan Bello, SP: 4 IP, 4 K, 1 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: The walk rate on the season remains inflated, so seeing Bello control the strike zone a bit better this week was great. Still, the 20-year-old is looking like a name to monitor. A strikeout rate of 33.9% will certainly play, and he's getting 57% ground balls, as well. 🔥Cristian Hernandez, SS: 181 wRC+, 30.8 K%, 11.5 BB%, 4 2B, 1 HR: The power was the only thing missing from Hernández's encouraging start, and he flashed a ton of it this week. He's done everything right: reworked his entire swing, is making much more contact, controlling the barrel through the zone more. He's probably ticketed to South Bend shortly, as he's nearing a 150 wRC+ on the season. He needs to sustain the improvement at High-A, but this is a very promising start for a prospect whose arrow had been pointing in the wrong direction entering the year 🤷‍♂️Alfonsin Roasario, OF: 109 wRC+, 50 K%, 0 BB%, 2 HR: I'm not going to be too harsh on the kid in his first few games. The strikeouts were rough, and he's likely going to have to work through that much of the year. The good news is that the power absolutely plays, as he smashed two no-doubt bombs on the week. He has all of the physical tools to be something, so while he's quite boom-or-bust, there's a lot of fun in his profile if he can put most of the tools together. 🥶Drew Bowser, 1b: 107 wRC+, 50 K%, 14.3 BB%, 1 HR: I'll be a bit harsher on Bowser, though. The wRC+, like Rosario, is buoyed by the lone home run (his first as a professional! Congrats, kid!), but it's not Bowser's first week, and Bowser played ACC baseball last year. Myrtle Beach is a tough place to hit, but the 20th-rounder continues striking out in two out of every five plate appearances on the season. All is not lost, so hopefully, he can settle in a bit more as we go on and that home run helps him turn a corner. View full article

Last night was a big step forward on the cutter usage, which is interesting. Thus far, he had been using the cutter about 16% of the time against LHH. Last night was just shy of 30% usage...which is almost a 50% usage jump. Not sure if that's specifically a Boston Red Sox thing or what...but an interesting data point moving forward to note.

The big thing about the cutter is this: that's the pitch he's been missing to be an effective SP. Cutters are especially effective from RHP to LHH...it's what's made Kutter Crawford so viable against lefties. It should be unsurprising he basically didn't use it against RHH last night but featured it about 30% of the time to left handers. We have discussed a few times on the board as a whole that he's made little progress on a changeup or a splitfinger...but if he can show a cutter that's even a bit above league average...he can stick in the rotation. Really good news.

Yeah, this one is entirely on the ****** template. I'm usually captain "Fanatics Sucks" because, well, Fanatics kind of sucks...but Nike earned this blame. The new template simply doesn't work, looks cheap, and wasn't really needed (were players complaining about the performance of the last stuff?). I'm glad to see the player and the league pushback here. I was concerned the league would have just hoped this went away, but credit to them for forcing the issue. Sadly, it sounds like the base template is "here to stay" (per the league) so I'll be interested to see how they fix the template (instead of just going back to the last one). The league makes a bunch of really bad uniform decisions, but they got one right.

Valiant comeback effort. Bummer to lose it.

Ah. I was just thinking "you know what the Cubs need? And injury to another arm". This is more than a test for this team.

Last I saw it was 5-0. I went to cook dinner. I see that it got worse. Much...much worse.

They're getting guys on. Should bode well to score runs. PCA looking much more comfortable.

I had to stop myself from gagging when a student told me for his birthday he wanted a Trevor Bauer jersey from his time in the NPB. Wasn't worth the potential email from a parent explaining why that was a not so cool gift idea.

Good to see PCA with two solid PAs tonight.

Good to see the kids get big hits.

I was curious as to what Crawford was doing differently in 2024 from 2023 and you can see that the Boston Red Sox are certainly doing things similarly to how the Cubs are doing things (obviously the connective tissue here is Craig Breslow). For example, the Cubs have been a heavy sweeper team and go figure, Crawford is pumping sweepers in that he didn't throw often a at all while essentially, dumping the traditional slider entirely. They've also really worked on his cutter location. Hopefully the overlap in how the Red Sox do things and the Cubs do things give the Cubs some increased ability to attack him. He's really limited LHP because of his cutter so I wonder if the Cubs will sit guys like PCA and Mervis or not.

Oh yeah, I think there's a place for a more-free-swinging option to be apart of a lineup. With that said, with all things, moderation is key. Too much of anything, patience, aggression, whatever rarely results in a positive outcome. PCA has needed a refinement in his aggression, at least IMO, for a while, to reach the ceiling. I'm all for PCA having controlled aggression: swing a bunch in 0-0 counts, in hitters counts...etc. He makes enough contact and barrels that it's a fine strategy for him. I just want him to cut the chase down. Triple-A pitchers have seemed to zero in on this, upping his non-competitive strike% from 16% to 22%. PCA is just too aggressive right now. If he can tone it down, and just be...aggressive, he's going to be a pretty good offensive player, IMO.

Yep. They're two different statistics set up to show two different abilities. No worries getting them mixed up a bit, there's so many numbers out there, with similar-ish-names, I've done it plenty. My guess is that the amount of emergency swings is such a small number of total swing%, and so subjective, that it wouldn't really factor in or change much. Hard to determine intent of a swing, like, when is a guy emergency hacking vs really? What's the line? Does it really effect much when we have 600 PA sample sizes and likely swing numbers in the 750-800 range? Probably not.

I am using TruMedia which uses Baseball Savant as it's foundation. We are using the same data set. What you are using is zone-contact, not contact%. This is only contact in the strike-zone. For comparison's sake, this is the mirror to in-zone-whiff (which I used). To showcase this, if 100% would be making contact on every swing in the zone and Patrick Wisdom had a 26.4% in-zone-whiff his zone-contact% would be...73.6% (there's likely a small rounding thing going on to the 73.7% zone-contact%, but you get the idea). You're mixing up contact% and zone-contact%. That's no shade...there's a billion numbers and statistics out there and they're all fiddly. Easy to do, I'm guilty of mixing up plenty. To clarify, I used both contact% and in-zone-whiff. Contact% is his ability to make contact on all swings (including chase pitches) while in-zone-whiff shows ability to make contact on strikes alone. He was well below league average for both in 2022. These are also the two numbers I used when discussing Pete Crow-Armstrong; his total contact% as well as his in-zone-whiff (which shows contact% vs strikes).

Pete Crow-Armstrong 2024 vs Triple-A 2024 Average Contact%: 71.5% vs 72.4% Barrel%: 18.1% vs 17.5% K%: 28.9% vs 23.1% In-Zone-Whiff%: 22.1% vs 19.3% Swing%: 63.1% vs 46.1% Chase%: 47.7% vs 26.6% Hit and approach should be viewed as separate issues, IMO, because they have different solutions. Pete Crow-Armstrong has shown, at least, average ability to make contact at Triple-A so far in 2024. He's making contact, barrels, and the like within rounding errors of league average. Where his numbers veer off is in swing decision and aggression as seen at his swing% and his chase%. His ability to take bat and put it on ball, controlling the bat through the zone appears fine. He struggles to decide when to let the bat fly. Context matters, and within that context we can see that his strikeouts are a result of approach. If he were to control his approach in a more league-average manner, his K% would almost assuredly reflect a league average strikeout rate. That, to me, is a very separate and different concern. Also, it should be noted that Patrick Wisdom in 2022, made contact 63.5% of the time. MLB contact% was 74.4%. His in-zone-whiff% was 26.4% compared to league average which was 17.9%. I would classify Patrick Wisdom's 2022 as a below average hit tool. Yes.

60 PA's can be enough PA's to make statements on things...it depends on the statistic at hand and the discussion. . When we're discussing strikeout rates, K% doesn't stabilize until 50-60 PA's, depending on the source. I've linked two sources here, Fangraphs (60 PAs) and RedLegNation which has it at 50 PAs. Regardless of whether we're going to set the line for stabilization at 50 or 60 PA's, Pete Crow-Armstrong currently has 23 at the MLB level...not even half of the low end. So I stand behind my comment: this is not a data set that matters today. We should be discussing his swing%, contact% and the likes currently of his Triple-A data if want to discuss what he's done. As well, we should be paying attention, specifically to changes in that data set; the changes I highlighted. Secondly, no one here thinks MLB pitching is the same as Triple-A pitching, let's not shift the discussion or create new tangents. No one has mentioned they're the same. With that said, his Triple-A data is relevant for as discussion on his hit tool. You're also the one who brought up his scouting data; I didn't bring up his MiLB information in a vacuum. If he had hit-tool issues worth concerning ourselves with currently, he wouldn't have league average contact% or improving in-zone whiff issues. There's nothing he's done that suggests a hit tool issue as of today. Again what he got beat at yesterday in a few PA's is nothing. Shoehei Ohtani got beat on fastballs on the outside third of the plate yesterday, yet on the season that's a hot spot for him. We don't use single game, or single pitch information as anything other than anecdotal. C'mon, man, you know this. You're making a lot of sweeping, declarative statements based on sample sizes that are simply not large enough to do that. They're not even half large enough to form a real opinion on at the MLB level yet. No one here is going to say his first 23 PA's have been perfect, but they're not a relevant sample size, either. Pulling his K% or contact rate right now is a misuse of that information. It's small enough that he needs like 2 days to flip it on it's head. Is his hit-tool MLB ready? Well, we're going to find out, aren't we? What we can say is that thus far his hit-tool has been league-average in Triple-A, and he's improved his contact rate from 2023 to 2024. One thing we do know, is that hitters's ability to make contact with the baseball is a statistic that correlates relatively highly to the MLB from Triple-A. So does strikeout and walk rate. Approach transfers. Contact ability transfers. PCA is in a weird intersection of having a hit tool right now that looks good enough and an approach that is wild and uncontrollable. Why his approach has gotten worse and not better is the key here. If they can get that moving in the right direction, he'll probably be fine.

Luzardo down with elbow discomfort. Notable as he could be a TDL guy.

So, I think we need to understand a few things: 1. FG's scouting reports are not great now a days. They've been lagging behind for years and while I really like Logenhagen, there seems to be a lack of funding and an inability on the FG team to keep up with prospect rankings with others. 2. There's not enough data in his MLB data set to matter. Please stop using this data set when we have larger, better data sets out there. These are small sample sizes that have no where near enough sample to matter, and are wildly effected by luck/small swings, etc. We have his MiLB Triple-A data which is a much larger data set, and much more clear. - His in-zone whiff% has dropped from 2023 to 2024 by roughly 5%. His in-zone whiff currently sits at 22% in Triple-A. Current Triple-A in-zone whiff league number sits at 19.3%. Contact% has improved from 68% to 72%. League Triple-A contact% is 72%. His Triple-A data suggests he does not have a hit-tool issue and we're seeing a good increase in ability to make contact from his first taste to current. - Not only that, we're seeing pitchers attack, in the zone, his weakness in his swing (up and away). This isn't some unique issue, we see, especially LHH with LA geared swings, struggle with this pitch (I.E See Michael Busch). And yet, the in-zone whiff has gone down - His chase rate is the issue. His chase% has gone up nearly 10% this year, and has doubled in hitter-count situations to over 50% chase rate. - We also have seen a massive increase in swing%. Just under 10% increase. This is not someone who has a hit tool issue. He doesn't have a 70-hit tool, but this isn't a hit tool issue. This is someone who has an approach issue right now. He's always been hyper aggressive, His swing% in 0-0 counts has jumped. His swing% in hitters counts has jumped. But his swing% in pitcher's counts hasn't. And these aren't small jumps. Again, like 10% increases in these situations. That's a big jump. So...why would we see the swing% jump in early counts and hitters counts but not with two strikes? Why the chase rate in hitters count through the roof? Probably one or two things. Maybe a combination. This reads like a hitter who is either desperately trying to stay away from two strike counts and away from the high up-away pitch by swinging at more pitches. That wouldn't be surprising to see him struggle initially to implement a brand new approach at the plate and figure that out. It also reads like an emotional 22 year old kid pressing and forcing the issue instead of letting the game come to him, which would make perfect sense for someone who struggled for the first time in his professional career and with the hype he has. But again, let me stress this: this doesn't read like a hit tool issue. This is entirely an approach issue right now. But it's also a fixable approach issue.

I think he might be ready for High-A.