Chicago Cubs 2024 Offseason Top 20 Prospects: No. 8, Jefferson Rojas

Well here it is Jason. The Cubs and there highly touted farm system. When you look at the numbers from last season you see a farm system just bursting at the seams. Yet, when they come up, these kids fall mostly below expectations. It begs the question of "why is that?" Is it coaching? Is our development program flawed? Or do we have a bunch of 4A ballplayers. Lights out at AAA ball, but unable to crack the lineup at the major league level. Seen some promise last year. Miguel Amaya literally caught fire towards the end of last season. Was it a fluke? Or did he kind of put the bowtie on his development at the Major-League Level? Regardless, before he caught fire, there was thought of sending him back to Iowa or working out some sort of deal for an established veteran? Then there is Pete Crow-Armstrong. Started slow, but seemed to start really coming on in the second half of last season. 1st base is solidified, although I must admit that I am not 100% sold yet on Michael Busch. He had an awesome streak at the beginning of last season, then his numbers were pedestrian for a while, then towards the end of last season he did come on again for a minute. I think he is the real, deal just not sure. I think the jury is about ready to come in on Matt Mervis. Just can't seem to hit major league pitching. I think he and a couple others were the reason the Cubs hung on to Patrick Wisdom. A nice guy, with some thump in his bat, but a lot of swing and miss, and some inconsistency in the field. I think he will land a starting job elsewhere (maybe the White Sox), but a bench player on this team was below his caliber. He could start for some other clubs. Lastly, the biggest issue......pitching. Throwing strikes and staying healthy seems difficult for this group. Havin an outstanding fastball and decent curveball doesn't really matter much if you are walking 2-3 guys per inning. Once again, is this coaching? Is the injury problem conditioning? Point is, we really got a shot here, are we taking care of business, or are we feeling the heat and bringing up the "kids" too fast?

31 minutes ago, Billy62 said:

Well here it is Jason. The Cubs and there highly touted farm system. When you look at the numbers from last season you see a farm system just bursting at the seams. Yet, when they come up, these kids fall mostly below expectations. It begs the question of "why is that?" Is it coaching? Is our development program flawed? Or do we have a bunch of 4A ballplayers. Lights out at AAA ball, but unable to crack the lineup at the major league level. Seen some promise last year. Miguel Amaya literally caught fire towards the end of last season. Was it a fluke? Or did he kind of put the bowtie on his development at the Major-League Level? Regardless, before he caught fire, there was thought of sending him back to Iowa or working out some sort of deal for an established veteran? Then there is Pete Crow-Armstrong. Started slow, but seemed to start really coming on in the second half of last season. 1st base is solidified, although I must admit that I am not 100% sold yet on Michael Busch. He had an awesome streak at the beginning of last season, then his numbers were pedestrian for a while, then towards the end of last season he did come on again for a minute. I think he is the real, deal just not sure. I think the jury is about ready to come in on Matt Mervis. Just can't seem to hit major league pitching. I think he and a couple others were the reason the Cubs hung on to Patrick Wisdom. A nice guy, with some thump in his bat, but a lot of swing and miss, and some inconsistency in the field. I think he will land a starting job elsewhere (maybe the White Sox), but a bench player on this team was below his caliber. He could start for some other clubs. Lastly, the biggest issue......pitching. Throwing strikes and staying healthy seems difficult for this group. Havin an outstanding fastball and decent curveball doesn't really matter much if you are walking 2-3 guys per inning. Once again, is this coaching? Is the injury problem conditioning? Point is, we really got a shot here, are we taking care of business, or are we feeling the heat and bringing up the "kids" too fast?

I think the end thing we have to remember and keep in mind is that while this feels like a particular "Cub centric" thing, that it's not...the the price you pay in the prospect game. We pay more attention to the Cubs, so we're much more tuned in. Just be honest - do you know who the 8th best prospect in the Giants system is? Maybe you do! But...I don't. I could look it up, but the point I'm trying to make is this; we are in tune with the Cubs system, so we know far more fringe prospects off the top of our head. I can tell  you all about Will Sanders and we didn't even rank him top-20 in our system! But I can't name most of the top-5 guys in most team's systems on demand and I'm certainly not really following them. These players fail consistently, we just don't really notice it.

Even the world's best prospects are a gamble. The Braves have acquired a few former top-guys recently in Jared Kelenic and Griffin Canning. These were the Mariners/Mets and Angels top guys for a hot minute. To-date, neither have succeeded. These stories are everywhere. Even more so when you go down that prospect list. Here's an article from Fangraphs I think explains what I'm getting at. There's another article I'll see if I can find again, but it was about the bust rate of the #1 hitting prospect and the #1 pitching prospect most years...and even that is incredibly high. 

There's also, I think, some...unrealistic outcomes placed on guys. Like, just because someone doesn't become a bang-on four win player, or a standout closer that somehow being a decent platoon bat or a 6th/7th inning guy ends up a "bust" or "disappointing" when I think that still makes them a success story in most regards. 

I do actually think the Cubs have done a pretty damn good job recently. Look at the team; Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, Justin Steele, Porter Hodge, Pete-Crow Armstrong, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, and Ben Brown are all likely to play some sort of important role on the 2025 Cubs. Matt Shaw, Daniel Palencia, Luke Little, Owen Caissie, James Triantos, Cade Horton and Kevin Alcantara will probably see MLB action whether with the Cubs or elsewhere - a handful may play important roles.  All of them have been drafted or  developed heavily into the Cubs system. They're doing pretty damn good on that front! Many of these players have required real development and weren't just your easy top-5 picks. 

So to answer your question; I think the answer is...this is the prospect game. Your favorite prospect is probably going to fail. My favorite prospect is probably going to fail. Wins are far less frequent than losses. 

3 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

So to answer your question; I think the answer is...this is the prospect game. Your favorite prospect is probably going to fail. My favorite prospect is probably going to fail. Wins are far less frequent than losses. 

It's also worth pointing out that this team had an incredible run of prospect luck from 2013-2017, to the point where I think it colored a lot of people's expectations with the system even to this day.  That 2016 team had a patently insane number of young guys who were top-level prospects who met (and exceeded!) expectations in the majors when they came up.  I'll grant that most of those guys fell off the face of the planet after they left the Cubs, but that kind of success rate is unrealistic, even for teams we hold in high regard for prospect development like the Dodgers and Rays.

That's not to say that we should have no expectations for this system, but it's more to say that we (as fans) need to take a more realistic approach to prospect development with the Cubs.  Theo put together a great farm, but there was also a lot of luck involved, whether it was the Astros taking Appel #1 overall in 2013 or Jim Hendry drafting against type when he selected Baez while on his way out the door in 2011.

Rojas, at an extremely young age for his level, showed really good walk, strikeout, and groundball numbers.  Fans having some Kevin Made or Aramis Ademan ptsd is not unreasonable, but it feels like with Rojas we're sort of just waiting on his man strength to kick in and how much defensive value he loses in the process.  But he seems to have the approach to be a big time dude.

I am all for player development. Any long term success cannot be accomplished without it. After two consecutive competitive yet not reaching the next level seasons, I am skeptical on betting the ranch on another season based on the talent we have on the farm. Considering the fact that we have at least 11 players from last years squad filing for free-agency, a handful with the possibility of arbitration issues, and the fact that some recent moves of bringing up some of the AAA players are not panning out....at least not yet, makes me think that the team might be better suited by signing a free-agent or two if nothing else than to hedge their bets. I mean what if we play out this season and this crop of AAA players proves to be a bust, and the team falls back to say 73-89. I like the signing of Matthew Boyd, not a terribly big amount of money spent, and a decent track record. Is he the answer? Probably not on his own, but maybe as a piece to a larger puzzle he is. To me the season is like making a pie. We are at the point now where the apples are being cut and the cinnamon and sugar is being measured out for the filling. Come October, when we cut into this pie we will know if we did right in mixing in the ingredients. I think the signing of Gage Workman is a pretty good move. Not much risk if he doesn't work out. $50,000 and a plane ticket back to Detroit. But, I think he will work out. At least for the role intended. Off the bench, the trend that he hits lefties well, struggles heavily against righties, with some thump in his bat, makes me wonder if he can occupy Patrick Wisdom's spot on the roster. If not, you really haven't missed much. The other three contract purchases through the Triple AAA phase of the Rule 5 Draft also are low in risk, but admittedly low in reward as well. Older farm hands with checkered backgrounds. Clenney, the oldest at 28 sported a 5.37 E.R.A. last season at AA. He did average more than a strikeout per inning at that level but he seems very hittable. Kwiatkowski, a year younger sported a 2.86 E.R.A. during a split between AA and AAA last season. Strikeouts are fewer, but he seems capable of providing outs. Then there is Jensen, also 27, spent most of last season at AA and was pretty efficient, compiling a 3.74 E.R.A. between AA and a short sample at AAA. He recorded 106 k's in 89 innings. This is what would look good on your roster. But, when he was sent to AAA and not so much. He got lit up pretty good with an E.R.A. of 9.00. Do any of these pitchers appear likely to crack the MLB roster? I don't know, I just don't want to see us waste what talent we do have on another mediocre season. We have the fan base and our pockets are deep enough to make a bigger splash for our fans. 2016 was nine seasons ago. Our glory is fleeting.