Jason Ross

Is it at his lowest? He's got 5 years of control, had a 99 wRC+ from May through the rest of the year, had one of the best wRC+'s of 3b throughout the 2nd half of the season. I think the only reason people think his value is "at his lowest" is because of an 8 game sample in the playoffs; and I suspect teams are not nearly as fickle as fans on that.

I do not think there is any way to add either of those in. I'd say I think it's unlikely the Red Sox actually add Tolle in.

80-grade stache game. Make it happen, Jed.

To be fair, it looked like entering the year he'd have none left, but because the MLB's rules are weird, he still had one. AZ Phil's baseball opinions are kind of bad, but he's the king of these things.

Rosenthal floated a Peyton Tolle for Hoerner trade. This kind of a trade would be one I'd have to think heavily about. On one hand, it unquestionably makes the Cubs worse in 2026. Shaw might be a 3 win fWAR 2b, but it's a bit "theoretical". You could probably go find a middle infielder on a $6m deal as a backup, maybe you bring back Willi Castro or something on a 1/$8m or something, but you're a worse team on paper. On the other end, I think Peyton Tolle is a stud. A LHP with a 36 K% in Triple-A, big velo and has always had strong walk-against numbers. His fastball is a killer and the Cubs love this kind of arm. And you could be looking at a rotation of the future of Cabrera, Horton, Wiggins and Tolle. Essentially flipping from the "old, low velo" rotation the Cubs had as recently as 2024 to one of extreme youth and velo.

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images Here at North Side Baseball, we're going to bring you a lot of deep analytical dives on Alex Bregman over the next few days, weeks and months. Matt Trueblood has already gotten in the weeds over his swing tilt and his fit in the lineup, while others have discussed him being the Cubs' top target and what it means for Matt Shaw. If you are familiar with what I enjoy, you'll know that I'm a massive proponent of the analytical side of the game, that I feel strongly that the data matters. But excuse me for a moment, because the meatbalal side of me sometimes just feels like we have to see it to believe it. To see what Bregman actually does with the bat in his hand, let's break down a plate appearance he had against the Tampa Bay Rays in September and see what Bregman is capable of bringing to the table for the Cubs lineup in a different way;. To set the stage, the season is getting late. The 84-70 Boston Red Sox are visiting division rivals, the Tampa Bay Rays. The Red Sox are in the American League Wild Card hunt, entering the day battling with teams such as Houston and Cleveland for a chance to extend their season with a playoff run. The Rays have had a somewhat disappointing season, but have Drew Rasmussen on the bump for the game. Rasmussen is in the midst of an excellent season where he will finish with an ERA below 3.00; it's a tough matchup, even if the Rays' overall record is less than sterling. The plate appearance in question is in the third inning and is the second matchup of the evening between Bregman and Rasmussen. In the top of the first, Rasmussen quickly got up 0-2 on the star third baseman, but after an at-bat-saving foul ball, the right-handed pitcher threw four balls, some of which were close takes, walking the Sox hitter. While I won't dive super deep into this matchup, I do want to point out one pitch in particular; the 0-0 cutter that Bregman watched. This is a great pitch. It's 91 mph, right on the knees. You can't do anything with this pitch. This is nearly unhittable; keep this in mind for later. Getting into the appearance I'd like to highlight, the game now sits with the Rays leading 2-1, and there is already one out in the top of the third (Trevor Story started the inning with a weak ground out to second). Bregman steps into the batters box and takes strike one again: a sweeper right down the pipe. While yoiur initial reaction may be "why would you take that, it's right down Broadway?!", it's important to note that Bregman is not good against sweepers, finishing the year with a -3 run value on the pitch (by far his worst of 2025). He has just a .200 wOBA on the pitch. Drew Rasmussen didn't surrender a home run on the sweeper in 2025, either. It doesn't matter that this is right over the plate; it's not a pitch you have to swing at, and Bregman doesn't. This is clearly a plan. Bregman is, once again, unconcerned about getting behind in the count. Now ahead in the count, Rasmussen has lots of options. With four pitches that graded out with a Stuff+ rating of at least 108, he also has deception on his side: "what will be throw"? He could go back to the sweeper, but it's not his only choice. Maybe he goes with the fastball up, or a slider/cutter off the plate. He got him to look at a perfectly placed cutter in the plate appearance before, so maybe he goes back there? The righty decides to do just that, and fires up a wicked cutter that a lesser hitter may have chased off the plate, but Bregman shows great discipline and evens the count. What could have been 0-2 or a weak ground ball to second is now an even count; Bregman is back in the at-bat. On f1-1. the Rays' pitcher gets a little wild, wasting two 96-mph fastballs, one up, and another out. Neither are particularly close; neither require much analysis. No one was going to swing at them in a 1-1 or 2-1 count. The first was well high and the second, well outside. They're just not good pitches; nor would they get many swings. Bregman's patience has earned him a 3-1 spot and the ability to remain patient and pick a pitch. Perhaps, however, Bregman gets a little too patient. Rasmussen leaves a cutter right down the pipe that Bregman probably should have crushed. Maybe he was expecting it to dive away from him a little more like the 0-0 pitch in his first plate appearance. Maybe he was just surprised he left it there. We can't know for sure. You can even see him sigh a little after the pitch; he knew that was a mistake pitch and he didn't offer. But this is also why you get ahead in the count: you can be very selective. Another reasoning; Rasmussen hasn't been the same strikeout artist in 2025 as he had been in the past. He's controlled batted balls wonderfully, but his strikeout rate sits below the league average. Bregman must not be overly concerned with striking out; he hasn't swung the bat yet all game. As the count is full, neither side is overly interested in giving in and the Red Sox hitter is going to be forced to swing the bat. Bregman knows that the season is on the line in every at-bat at this point of the year, so if you have an opportunity, you need to take it. Rasmussen is a fierce competitor and knows the teeth of the Boston lineup is behind the third baseman. An out here is his best chance of shutting down any possible momentum. Rasmussen dials up another pitch from his arsenal, this time going with a sinker around the same place at which he got Bregman to watch a cutter drop in. Bregman stays on it, and fouls it off. He doesn't have elite bat speed, but because his bat remains in the zone so long and his hands are quick, he's able to get enough of it to stay alive. Now, Rasmussen dials up another fastball, this time running it up to 96 mph. It's headed to the same area as the cutter early in the count, which was such a close one. It's a ball, but it's not so much of a ball that Bregman can leave it up to an umpire. This isn't a waste pitch; this is a pitch designed to get a swing, and he gets it. The problem, if you're Rasmussen, is that Bregman isn't going to whiff on this. He's able to get his hands out, flips the bat and fouls it off. The appearance remains alive. There is a reason Bregman's strikeout rate has been elite; he just doesn't swing and miss very often. Two straight heaters have been fouled off; one down, one away. Rasmussen isn't ready to give in yet, and throws a third consecutive fastball. However, this time, he changes the location. This is a gnarly 95-mph pitch up and in on the hands a bit. It's a strike, right on the black. This isn't a pitch you're going to get on top of, even with a flat bat path like Bregman's. But again, Bregman lives to see another pitch, getting his hands up enough to foul it straight back. He's made it clear; you're not going to get him on the four-seamer. We're eight pitches deep, and the battle continues. Thus far, Bregman has let two pitches go by in hittable spots, spit on an outside cutter, fouled off a handful of fastballs, and knows that something probably has to change on this pitch. Rasmussen's best pitch is likely his cutter, and he throws it 30 percent of the time. He loves getting the thing low and away, like he did on the previous at-bat and like he did on the 1-0 pitch this time. He goes back to it here, but he makes a mistake; he hangs it. Unlike the last time, where Bregman watched a hittable cutter go, he takes advantage of the mistake. If you pay attention to Rasmussen, you'll see him mouth something. I'll assume it's a four-letter word; he knows what happened. After eight pitches of being highly selective—of fouling off and grinding him down—Boston's slugger gets ahold of one; Bregman ties the game at 2-2. This is what a professional at-bat looks like: an at-bat with a very defined plan. Bregman knew not to attack an early pitch ill-suited to his swing. He knew where Rasmussen throws the cutter, and he didn't expand the zone until he had to. He even made up for watching a hittable cutter; he learned a lesson mid-at-bat. These kinds of at-bats are coming to Wrigley Field for the next five years. And while we can't be certain what Bregman will age into—we can't foresee injuries, and cannot predict the future—what I can say with confidence is that that kind of approach ages like fine wine. You don't forget how to plan or stay within your game just because you get a little older. Maybe you're not convinced about his bat tilt, or having Matt Shaw play as a utility man; that's okay. But watching the man work brought me a new appreciation for what he does well. Bregman never flinched and never got worried that he was down two strikes. He made up for watching a hittable pitch. He simply outworked Rasmussen in that moment, until the Rays' hurler finally made the final mistake. The more I watch how Bregman works, the more I get excited that the Cubs will have this as a main feature of their lineup from 2026 and beyond. Seeing is believing. What do you think of Bregman's plate approach? Where would you hit in him in the lineup? Sound off in the comments below; let's talk all things Alex Bregman. View full article

It's a 3/$150m offer. No idea about opts and deferred money.

Not related to the Cubs directly, but worth it to: 1. Watch the other teams scramble if this happens 2. What the return is

Rogers has already said that the Cubs would go over the LT for Hoerner. And Levine says they'd need to be overwhelmed. I am struggling to see what the trade could be that would be overwhelming, but I'd assume the Cubs aren't doing this just for money savings if they do.

This reads more like the Yankees drumming up backups to Bellinger for leverage in that negotiation than anything like the Cubs having any interest in a trade.

If we are at the level of "question Fangraphs integrity" then we are just grasping at straws; not that we already weren't, but that's a pretty clear "wave the white flag" moment. You obviously also don't understand stabilization and sample size. Yes, both of those samples are larger than all accepted stabilization rates. You read up on those here, if you care about. Stabilization and MLB statistics. Only one of us has brought data. But I'm sure youre a bastian of the scientific community. Enjoy not watching Cubs game until 2031.

I willingly teach 125 middle school students daily. For eight hours a day I talk to unwilling participants who are ranting and raving like a lunatic. This one hasn't randomly screamed some brainrot TikTok trend yet, and I'll assume he's wearing deodorant (at least, I can't smell him through the computer) making it among the easiest interactions I've had all day. Sometimes it's just fun to throw as many data points at someone and watch them twist themselves into a pretzel.

Bud, we have FanGraphs which is publicly available. You can go look at his split stats. You can view them here. In 2017, he had a 127 wRC+ on the road and a 117 wRC+ at home. Fun fact; he was 40 points of wRC+ better on the road in 2019 than he was at home - that was the best year of his career. It wasn't even close. If wRC+ is too technical, than let's go with this: he hit 10 home runs on the road in 2017 and only nine at home. He had a higher batting average on the road. He had better slugging, too. In 2019, he hit 25 home runs on the road and 16 at home. His batting average was almost .40 points higher on the road. He struck out less. None of this makes sense. None of it. At this point you're kind of just devolving into the crazy guy on the street corner ranting about how there's bacteria in the water that the government put there.

Beyond the silliness of "go watch conspiracy theory YouTube videos" what does any of that have to do with my original point; his value *since 2022*? Are you just not reading? What is going on here?

The official MLB report found that the video software was used until mid-year 2018. They found no evidence of continued cheating. This is publicly available, so yes, well known. I'm uninterested in conspiracy theory beyond it. You've also made it very clear that Kyle Tucker who didn't play with the 2017 Astros, but did with the 2018 Astros and beyond doesn't count. So either the timeline to be upset is the MLB timeline, or you're a hypocrite for not throwing the same fit about Kyle Tucker. Which would you like it to be? Were you this upset that the Cubs acquired Ryan Pressly last year? He's been with the Astros since 2018. And before we say "well he's a pitcher", it was a pitcher, Mike Fiers who was the original whistleblower. So let's pick a lane. Again, if you want to dislike Bregman? Fine. But the sanctimonious pearl clutching of "my poor kids" and "they stole from players" doesn't read as genuine; it's so over the top that it reads like they were stealing the food out of impoverished children, not banging on a trash can to signal fastball or not. And you cannot, for the life of you, remain consistent in your critiques. You're not even really addressing the data. Why would Bregman hit better on the road? Why would his best season come in 2019 when the MLB itself claims the team had stopped using the illegal videos?

The cheating scandal was in 2017. How do you suppose that is reflected in the data from 2022 to now?

His two best years were in 2018 and 2019, when the cheating scandal was over. It's well known they stopped mid-way through 2018. He had virtually identical wRC+ from the first half to the second half (158 and 1`56). And none of that accounts for his 2019; easily his best season. He was also better on the road in 2017 than at home. You're not consistent in your messaging, and you seem to have just decided you hate Bregman without actually looking into what the cheating affected for him. You want to dislike him? Be my guest, but be factually correct about it.

I think he's been with some bad pitching orgs (Arizona, notably and the Orioles aren't stars here either), but also think if I was handicapping "who's the next Brad Keller" that Martin is next to Snider for that. He saw a big 2mph velo bump last year, and his curveball is nasty, with a 127 Stuff+ rating. It feels like if you can dial him in a bit, there's an MLB reliever in there. The ERA sucked last year, but the K% was way up, too and the xFIP was under 4.00. I wouldn't bet on him being Keller-good, but he's got a lot of signs of "the Cubs could get the most of him" too.

Based on how the Cubs have approached the offseason, it would seem a bit like the Cubs may have. You figure they pivoted from King pretty quickly, wanted to keep the AAV on Imai as low as possible, refused to do an opt-out deal there (higher AAV), signed guys like Tyler Austin, Jacob Webb and everyone on super cheap deals from essentially the WM's on. And Matt spoke about the Cubs looking to pair Imai with Bregman.

It's clear these kinds of things matter to the Cubs. Matt alluded to Swanson in the same fashion in his article about Bichette and the Cubs and how the Cubs felt Swanson was a special case because of both his on the field play but his clubhouse presence. And I kind of get it; if you're hitching your wagon to someone for 5-7 years, you probably want to ensure that the player is going to be a positive in the clubhouse for those 5-7 years.

I think Tucker had the more "upside" as a player (He could probably still be a 6+ win player in the right situation where as Bregman probably isn't) , but Bregman represents a bit of a change in how the Cubs have operated so, I'll say Bregman

Just to add; the Cubs do have two open 40-man spots, but I don't expect them to be filled. By leaving them open the Cubs will have flexibility in keeping whatever MiLB-deal/camp invite arms they want without sacrificing something else. While I wouldn't expect the Cubs will create a Brad Keller every year, the team will want the flexibility if Colin Snider or one of the myriad of those types break out in camp. Ultimately, I think the off-season is basically done. There will probably be some consistent rumors of a Hoerner or Shaw trade that persist but I doubt those happen; the landing strip of what would need to come back feels so thin that I cannot envision a trade that works well.

Bregman represents a lot: 1. The Cubs picked a player and outbid another for him 2. The Cubs used deferred money, something they havent been as willing to do lately. 3. He's a very good player; 19th most fWAR of any position player since 2022.

Bregman was better in 2025 than he was in 2024 and his wRC+ was the same as it was in 2023. How is that slowing down? Also, it's 5/$30m with the deferrals. If there is a shutdown in 2027, he won't get paid. It's pretty unnecessary to worry about that aspect.