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Jason Ross
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Everything posted by Jason Ross
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To be fair, especially to Shaw, the likely reason he chased the fastball is because he got stuck with a strike-2 call that was *not* a strike (per Statcast). Good pitching; Pivetta went fastball outside the zone further than the bad called strike and generated a whiff. On one hand, yes, Shaw should not swing at that. But that's also good pitching and a little bit of favorable umping on the call. It's not as cut and dry as one thing or another.
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Yeah, might be a good time to just have Pomeranz up and running.
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Missed a few pitches, but Pivetta also doing good work out there.
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Dansby.
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Fun strikeout there.
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Exactly. He probably froze initially just to ensure it was a ground ball. That ball was hit 101mph off the bat and did go 65 feet, so it wasn't too far from Swanson when it actually got down. Last thing he was going to do was get doubled off with zero outs. He would have scored if it was more clearly a groundball because he'd have gone on pure contact. With 0 outs you're much more cautious.
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Ignore if he strikes out. I'll delete.
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I like PCA here to run into one
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Yeah, feel like that should be more on Nico than anything.
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Swanson! Nice play. Hold them to 1. That's okay. We weren't going to win 1-0.
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That'd be Ben Mac. He does color for the Orioles normally. He'll pop up a bunch during the CWS so I've heard him a bit.
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ESPN K-Zone not necessarily replicating MLB.com Statcast zone very well: Strike-2 was close, but Statcast has it as a ball. Not blaming but probably worth to keep an eye on their K-Zone and wonky strikes.
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Damn. Initial reaction from me was that Busch got that one.
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I am. We're doing a live NSBB reaction to every playoff game. I'd rather do it happy.
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Give me a Cubs 3-2 win tonight.
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Extended innings in the playoffs are almost assuredly in lower leverage situations. If you think Soroka is a better arm than those two (I think he is, especially out of the pen) than he's likely going to be in small doses. This is not like the regular season where you're worried about saving guys, especially in this three game set (with off days after) where you're worried about pen preservation outside of preserving for tomorrow. If a SP is bad, it's likely that you're asking an arm to go multiple innings because you're losing. That's a far better situation to use Rea or Civale than Soroka. If you're going with an opener, the score will 100% be 0-0 and you'll 100% be facing Fernando Tatis and other good hitters. That's an important spot. Don't horsefeathers around go with an opener and then default to one of your low leverage guys. That's really bad planning.
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Moises Ballesteros will be an interesting option off the bench, but a good reminder that Mo Baller was a 120 wRC+ hitter in Iowa and Tucker has been 20% better against significantly better pitching. Tucker is the right call. Not the rookie. Even if he's a little rusted, he's the right call.
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They also have Rea and Civale. It's a three game set. If they need someone to eat 3 innings early, they have plenty of guys. If they need more than one game of someone eating that amount of innings, they are in trouble to begin with. It's fair to make an argument not to go with an opener as to not mess with Shota and his routine. But they will have plenty of options for innings eaters.
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Playoff Eve Thread (Cubs v Padres)
Jason Ross replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
I'm not going to create hardline answers to things I couldn't possible know. But with the Cubs electing 12 pitchers over 13, guys like Rea and Civale are likely your "designated losers" to eat a few innings if a SP is struggling. There is no tomorrow if we blow games and there is no shaking things loose. If Taillon, Shota, or Boyd are struggling in the 3rd inning, regardless of how good they can be, you pull them. And then you turn to a Civale or a Rea and you say "I need two or three innings, go stop them while we get back into it". It's far better than using Theilbar, or Keller, or Kittredge in the fifth when you'd ideally want them in the final third. Or in a 4+ run loss, to not use them at all and get them tomorrow. Thus the "designated loser". They come in when you're losing to eat valuable innings and perform good enough to keep the game within reach (if possible) for your offense to scratch some across. I think in these oddball three game sets (that function as regular season sets despite them being in the playoffs), they're incredibly important. With no off days, you don't want Keller going three days in a row, for example, if you don't have to. -
I'd go Soroka. I think he's the better of the two pitchers (when things are all 100% right). Civale has been more interesting than I thought he would be, but tomorrow, I'd pencil in Soroka for an inning and change depending on the lineup. Maybe 4 or 5 hitters, then Shota time.
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Playoff Eve Thread (Cubs v Padres)
Jason Ross replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
I would guess he's going to be in a role I'm calling the "designated loser" (can't claim I coined it, I picked it up on a documentary on Will Ohman of all things...no one can claim I am anything but a baseball nerd). I would expect his roles will be to come in and eat innings in the event of the Cubs losing, but that those innings will remain meaningful in that he will be a good arm that you can trust to keep the game around the same score (giving your offense a chance at a comeback) or to save the more important arms for later. I don't think, especially in a short series that he'd be asked to do much more than that. But I also think that the designated loser is a more important role than the name suggests! -
Playoff Eve Thread (Cubs v Padres)
Jason Ross replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
The Padres starting pitching is not particularly great. Cease has had a weird year; under the hood numbers look good, top line looks bad. Pivetta is a good pitcher, but has probably gotten some positive variance against LHP (sub 3.00 FIP, near 4.00 xFIP). Beyond those two, game three will be a pitcher who's recently returned from injury in King or Darvish. They're a team you can get to in the first 5 innings - they're a bottom 10 SP in almost any category. Yes, their bullpen is very good, but the Cubs are going to enter every game with an advantage at the first half of the game likely, and especially whenever they have a lefty on the mound. And it isn't like they can't put together a strong BP effort after that. Given that it's at Wrigley, I like the Cubs here. Nothing guaranteed but I do think they have the edge entering. Game 1 is very important. Since the playoff expansion the team who won Game 1 went on to win all 12 sets.
