Jason Ross

I really thought that if the Cubs got off to a bad start that we would see some whispers of "Trade Tucker at the deadline?" talk from fans. I did not, however anticipate that that being in first in the NL Central as Kyle Tucker leads the charge would also result in "trade Tucker at the deadline?" talk from fans.

You guys are giving me the warm and fuzzies tonight.

First - nothing I said was anything less than "factual". I wasn't telling lies, instead, I was expanding on data. That the velocity drop isnt new, its been on going for a while. His velo dipped below 92mph consistently after July. It was dipping before too. Secondly, you're the one who jumped *immediately* to "put him on the 60 day IL". Yes. That is panicking. There's plenty of steps in between that and what happened, jumping there is skipping a bunch. Perhaps new information will come out as we go. It wouldnt be shocking to see him have an extended stay. It *may* lead to TJS. Jumping directly from "the Cubs put Steele on the 15 day IL" to where you did, is panic city. Let's see where it goes before we dump him on a 60 Day slot. Last time he did this he missed 15 days. It very well could be that again and there's enough reason to believe it'll be closer to that to stay grounded. If he's still on the IL come Mid-May, it'll be closer to time to worry about a greater injury. I'll probably join you on the highway to panic city myself.

I figure with doing the pod and writing - I'd formalize it a little. But also mostly for you, JH. 😂

Theyre going to lose 65-70 games even in a good year. This is likely one of those.

Well, "just before" is a bit spurious. His velo drop has been dating back for a while. It was after August it dipped below 92mph. The velo drop isn't new, and it's been persistent at around 92mph. Again, it's not good, but creating order of panic by proclaiming it's TJS right now is quite early. Thus far the Cubs have done well to avoid blowing arms up - let's give them some credit that they understand what they're doing here. Position players have been less cut and dry with IL trips, but the Cubs do well by their pitchers. I would say it's quite convenient from a Cubs perspective that he's hitting the 15 day IL now after a really cold week and a weird ST, especially with the off time they've had. Colin Rea has been used sparingly as well. It could be more of a planned break for Steele than a true TJS indicator (not to diminish the injury, Im sure hes banged up).

His velo has been down since August. Eovladi's velo was down 3mph on Monday, too. His start against Arizona was his second highest velo since July 2024. He was pretty excellent last year even during a lowered velo. Lets not create an undue panic. Is it good his velo is lowered than it was a bit about go? No. Is it good he's on the IL with elbow tendinitis? No. Does that mean he should be a 60-day guy and on TJS watch? Also, no. The Cubs have done a great job avoiding TJS with their arms, they deserve a bit of a benefit of the doubt here. Id rather not be in this position, but until he actually has a TJS issue, it's probably best to look at this like September more than anything.

Theres still time and all, but today has that feeling of a "bummer game" where they just lose. Not where they blow a weird lead, but a normal, loss. Certainly they have the offense to get back in, but we haven't had many games like that so far.

Im really beginning to love Michael Busch. I always liked him, but he's really become a stabilizing bat. He's never going to be Kyle Tucker but he's just good.

Some interesting Cubs pitching data from Lance Brozdowski - Cubs pitchers in general have *really* leaned into 4 seam fastballs. They are leading the league in 4 seam usage. - Jameson Taillon has significantly increased his 4 seam usage. It was an objectively bad pitch last year. It's better this year (94 stuff+) but still not good. - Suggests it could be weather related.

Tucker. Oh no.

Good horsefeathers, Hodge.

This is a really fun Cubs' offense. They do a lot of things well.

The Cubs probably don't feel the need to carry one. Happ and Tucker could probably fill in if need be. Jon Berti has played there in limited roles. With a PCA IL trip, it would almost assuredly be Kevin Alcantara being called up. He's so good defensively and running that you don't really need to sit him. And the Cubs are off almost every Thursday for a while, so there's a lot of rest days.

This is my life with my phone. Always. For whatever reason, my phone's GPS thinks I live in Indianapolis. I don't. I don't even live in Indiana. I live 3 hours away from Indianapolis, but internally, my phone feels I do. Good news for me; Indianapolis is considered to be close enough to Chicago that it blacks out all games. As long as I connect to a wifi, I'm fine, however.

The 2025 minor-league season technically kicked off March 28th, but this week was our first where all four full-season affiliates played. Who did well? Who's off to a fast start? Image courtesy of © Cody Scanlan/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Baseball is back—for the Chicago Cubs, and for all four of their full-season affiliates. There are some familiar top prospects (such as Owen Caissie, Cade Horton and Kevin Alcántara) on whom to keep watch. A few new names have made their debuts, such as recent 2024 draftees. One affiliate even debuted a new name, as the Tennessee Smokies are now the Knoxville Smokies. (In a moment of honesty: this University of Kentucky alumnus is going to have a hard time not gagging typing Knoxville all year.) It was a pretty awesome week, just because all four teams were back in action, even if the weather didn't always cooperate. As in years past, I'm going to take a brief overview of some of the biggest names at each affiliate and highlight some big weeks—and some disappointing ones. Only the Iowa Cubs have played a full week of games, so anyone marked "cold" here isn't supposed to be seen as a major negative, in many cases, it's just two games, so please be kind to them. I'll try to be kind to them, too. As always, this isn't supposed to be comprehensive, but a quick system check. If and when I miss a week you thought was great, let me know in the comments! Iowa Cubs, Triple-A (4-3) Next up: @ Toledo Mudhens (Cleveland Guardians) Iowa battled some nasty weather, which was making its way through the Midwest. Thus, they had to battle some weird scheduling. With a doubleheader on the 3rd, and needing to finish a completed game from Friday on Sunday (as well as their regularly scheduled game), it was not a "normal" week. Regardless, ticking off four wins dating back to a short season against Omaha was pretty successful, and isn't bad by any means. 🔥Cade Horton, SP - 3.1 IP, 6 K, 4 BB, 1 H 0R , 0 ER: He's back and he's healthy. I'd have had him on this list as long as he looked healthy, but he looked much better than when we last saw him with the I-Cubs, too. Hitting just shy of 98 mph on the fastball and grading out with a 109 Stuff+, the righty bullied Triple-A hitters all night. The four walks make it seem like his control was spotty, but Horton's fourth inning saw the righty deal with a pretty good and steady rain, and he struggled for a grip. I won't blame him for that. 🔥 Owen Caissie, OF - 10% BB%, 40% K%, 1 HR, 4 XBH, 144 wRC: I'm willing to overlook the strikeouts, as he missed much of camp coming back from offseason surgery. More importantly, the power is really flashing. With over 10 balls that jumped off the bat at 100 mph or better, the outfielder is finally showing some of that raw power transform into game power. More importantly, most of that was in the air, not on the ground. Keep an eye out, though. Caissie turned his ankle and had to be replaced on Sunday. The hope is that it's minor, but he may miss some time. 🔥 Ben Cowles, INF - 10% BB%, 36.7% K%, 3 XBH, 159 wRC+ : We barely got to see Cowles in 2024 after the trade in which the team acquired him and Jack Neely, as he had a broken wrist. However, a successful Arizona Fall League and a hot start to the season make you excited about the future. He hit the ball hard, clubbing the I-Cubs' first home run of the season. It's still early, but if he can continue looking solid, he would make himself an interesting injury replacement if someone such as Jon Berti or Gage Workman came up lame. 🥶 Caleb Kilian, SP - 2.1 IP, 1 BB, 2 K, 6 H, 6 R, 6 ER : There was some optimism this offseason that Kilian had been working with Tyler Zombro and maybe there was something to be unlocked. Alas, his first start of the season didn't show much of that. Kilian still struggled to miss bats and got knocked around. I don't want to write anyone off entirely after one start, but Kilian's time as a starting option feels like it's ending. If Zombro can't fix it, it might be time to go with a full transition to the pen. Knoxville Smokes, Double-A (1-1) Next up: @ Rocket City Trash Pandas (Los Angels Angels) 🔥 Ethan Hearn, C - 2-4 with 2 singles: Pretty good start for the catcher down in Knoxville! The Smokies don't project to have a massive offensive team, so if the Cubs can catch a little lightning with Hearn behind the plate, all the better. Hearn has occasionally flashed ability, so the hope is that he can begin to put things together this year. It's one game, but he didn't look out of place. 🔥 Pedro Ramirez, INF - 4-9, 1 BB, 1 K : Ramirez has done nothing but hit in his pro career, and he started his time in Double A by continuing that trend. He's not very big, hasn't displayed much power, and defensively is likely more in the "fine" tier, but he just hits. It will be interesting to see what the 21-year-old is capable of. If he can continue to just hit, those other things may begin to matter less as he continues to force the issue. 🥶 Frankie Scalzo Jr, RP - 0 IP, 4 BB, 1 K - Yeesh. I wrote about Scalzo a bit this offseason, and even chatted him up on the latest episode of the North Side Baseball pod—and this is how he repays me? All kidding aside, Scalzo just didn't have it. It's one appearance, so it's ultimately nothing major, but this was unpleasant, as only 15 of 33 pitches were strikes. Get 'em next time, Mustache. 🥶 BJ Murray, 3b - 1-9, 1 BB, 2 K - This isn't a great start for Murray. It's two games, so I'm not reading much into things, but you'd have hoped the drop back to Knoxville could be met with a quick transition. Murray really struggled last year, and if he's going to rediscover that helium, he'll need to hit at Double A. It takes one 3-3 game to completely reverse this, so hopefully he settles in and makes that jump right back to Triple A. South Bend Cubs, High-A (0-3) Next up: vs Peoria Chiefs (St. Louis Cardinals) 🔥 Cristian Hernandez, INF - 5-14, 1 3B, 2 K : Great week for the Cubs' former IFA prize! It feels a bit like Hernandez has been around forever, but he's only 21, so seeing him get off to a fast start in South Bend is awesome and right on pace. He looked good in spring training, and came back and kept it rolling. He even started a game at second base, so look for the shortstop to see some time around the infield to build some versatility. 🤷‍♂️ Jaxon Wiggins, SP - 3.1 IP, 4 K, 3 BB, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 R: The walks weren't ideal, but the stuff looked really good, so I'll give him a push grade for the week. Wiggins is part of the "next generation" of Cubs' arms, so figuring out the walks would be good. It's early in the season, so maybe it's rust. Stuff-wise, he's right there. 🥶 Reginald Preciado, INF - 1-8, 0 BB, 3 K: I remember being very excited about Preciado coming out of the Darvish trade. With some top-100 hype and hitting from both sides, there was a pretty cool profile there. Sadly, it just hasn't seemed to ever click for the Panamanian. Coming off of a weak season last year in Myrtle Beach, Preciado started poorly again in South Bend. There's always time, but it's never really clicked for him. Myrtle Beach Pelicans (3-0) Next up: vs Carolina Mudcats (Milwaukee Brewers) 🔥 JP Wheat, SP - 4 IP, 4 K, 2 BB, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER: Wheat, a former 16th-round pick, spent most of the 2024 season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. There were reports of Wheat showing up in 2025 camp throwing 100 mph, and he didn't disappoint in his first game. He looked loose and powerful. He's very tall and lanky, so there's considerable whip in the arm. He's 22, and capable of finishing the year as far as Knoxville if things go well. He's a name to file away as a real breakout guy. 🔥 Cole Mathis, 1b/3b - 1-4, 6 BB, 1 K - Mathis shouldn't be here very long. The second-round pick walked an absurd six times, and his plate discipline is just too good for Low-A pitching. He carries himself much older than most 22-year-olds at the plate, and it showed. It's likely he's just here rehabbing his elbow in nicer weather than northern Indiana; he should see South Bend shortly. 🔥 Alexey Lumpuy, OF - 5-15, 1 2B, 4 K, 0 BB - Lumpuy looked pretty solid in his first weekend of Low-A ball. The biggest moment for the outfielder was his 108-mph smash to right field. There's an impressive bat here, and it wouldn't be surprising if he was a breakout candidate this year. The former IFA signing out of Cuba hit well with the DSL Cubs last year and he skipped the Arizona Complex League and extended ST. Keep an eye out here. That wraps up our first week! Who did I miss? Let me know in the comments! View full article

Pressley has seen his fastball average 93.9 mph (entering today). This is identical to last year, where he walked 7.4% of hitters faced. His career walk rate is 7.2%. If we want to blame the increase in walks on stuff decline, then it doesn't really check out on the fastball like you're pointing to, when compared to 2024 or his career walk rate. Now, we can point to his slider as not grading out well this year - that's fair. His slider has always been a Stuff+ monster and this year it's been bad. He's getting less horizontal break on it in 2025 and a significant lack of whiff. Whether this is a dead arm, whether this is age (though the fastball velocity suggests it might not be), or mechanical flaw...I'm unsure. But that's probably the thing to monitor. The walk rate should be alright if he can figure out the slider. But if he cannot figure out the slider, he will be a problem.

Pressely has done this to himself, but I really don't blame that inning on him. - Umpire missed the Diaz PA. Pressly threw three strikes, but got charged with a walk - Induced two potential double plays, a second which ended with Turner not making a play on a somewhat poor Hoerner throw. He's earned little benefit of the doubt, but that inning really wasn't on him. IMB did bring up a good point in his lack of whiffs in that inning. - he had none.

Probably wanted Turner to hit in the ninth as opposed to Workman

Turner. Jeeze, dude.

Good job by Merryweather. Turner helped bail out Kelly. Good job.

Man, Arraez is so annoying.

Do I need to delete this, Caleb?