Jason Ross

He's barely a 3b. What you might gain offensively will be lost defensively. The offense isn't particularly the issue right now.

Yeah, Im not mad at all that theyve given them a bit more rope. I don't want to see Horton go 8 innings and throw 115 pitches in Iowa, but getting Mazier Mule through five once a week? I'm all here for that. Be careful, but they can take some of the bubble wrap off, too.

The Cubs have made pitching infrastructure a key component of their rebuild over the last few years, hiring pitching gurus such as Craig Breslow (once monikered the "smartest man in baseball") and now, Tyler Zombro. While success has come at times, they've still fallen a little short of what their goal has been. However, we may be seeing that change. Image courtesy of © MATTIE NERETIN/USA TODAY NETWORK If you read my article looking at Cade Horton recently (you can check it out here), I wrote that after Horton struggled a bit in the fourth inning of his outing on Wednesday, I was convinced his day was done. It's probably important to give some context as to why I was so convinced that he was done and it's because last year, I'm fully convinced he would have been done. Over the last handful of years, the Cubs have played it very conservatively with their young starting pitching in the minor leagues. They have limited the overall pitch counts for their starters and certainly limit the total amount of innings as well. We only need to look at how the Cubs handled their top pitching prospect last season. Horton, coming off a very strong 2023 campaign, was clearly being limited at the start of the season, going no longer than the fourth inning until his fourth start of the season. None of those starts saw Horton make it to the third time through the order, and none saw Horton face more than 15 hitters. It wasn't as if the righty was getting knocked around—he went more than 11 innings, struck out 1`2 and had only given up two runs—and it wasn't as if he hadn't faced 20+ hitters the year prior. The Cubs were clearly handling Horton with a bit of bubble wrap at the start of the year, and I'm not sure you can blame them; Horton is that good and you don't want to see him hurt. It's this reason why I was surprised to see Horton come back out for the fifth inning in his latest start. He had just given up two hard hit balls, and he looked a little gassed. On top of that, he had had faced 15 hitters, and had thrown slightly over 60 pitches total. All of these were tell-tale signs of the past that Cade Horton would be done. Yet, there he was, toeing the rubber in the fifth inning. Fast forward to Thursday night. I've got the South Bend Cubs and the Myrtle Beach Pelicans split-screened on my computer to watch starting pitchers Jaxon Wiggins and Nazier Mule (I'm a real prospect sicko). Both are looking good, cruising through their first few innings. Wiggins is through four innings, he's struck out six, walked just two; he's looked great. This is a fine place to end his night, frankly. Then... Wiggins comes back out. He struck out another hitter. I immediately pulled up his FanGraphs page to check a hunch: Wiggins wasn't allowed to face 17 hitters in a game through his first 12 appearances at all last year, and yet he's has faced 17 or more twice already this season. That's the second time I was convinced a pitcher was done for the night only to come back for one more. Just a few moments later, I switch my attention back to the Myrtle Beach stream to put eyes back on Mule. Once again, the Cubs' young prospect had looked great through four innings and, akin to the other two, was allowed to come back out for a fifth inning. Mule, unlike the other two, struggled a bit. He walked a hitter. He made an error. He balked. Three unearned runs score. But, he's not yanked at the first sign of struggle. Instead, he's allowed to work through much of it. Eventually, he's taken out once he hits 80 pitches and is removed just shy of completing the fifth, but regardless of the outcome, it was notable. As they say, "twice is a coincidence, but three times is a trend". All three of these pitchers share something in common; they've all had Tommy John surgery. As we have seen, in 2024 the Cubs treated a post-TJS Horton with baby gloves at the start of the season, limiting him to just 15 hitters faced for a while, and this was multiple years removed. Compare that to how the Cubs have handled Mule; he's faced the lineup a third time twice already. Cade Horton, their to -pitching prospect, has been granted a chance to face 20 hitters just six times since he's been drafted and Mule has done it back-to-back this April. That's something new. That's notable. These aren't the only pitchers who have been given extra rope, but they highlight what I believe is an evolution in how the Cubs are handling their young starting pitching. There's clearly a correlation to be found here in that the Cubs are starting to allow their young arms go a bit longer, fight through adversity a bit more, and the addition of Tyler Zombro. I'll stop short of claiming it's a causation however, but it makes logical sense that with the addition of Zombro as a "special assistant" and greater access to Tread Athletics, that the he could be behind this. What does this all mean? We really don't know yet. Your initial reaction may be that this is a signal that the Cubs are going to swing back into an era where starting pitchers are allowed to go longer in games at the highest level, to rack up 200 IP like they did in yesteryear. If that's your takeaway, I think you'll be disappointed. The reality is that the toothpaste is out of the tube in the regards to pitching injuries, and we're very unlikely to go backwards. What it could mean, however, is that the Cubs are going to trust their pitching more and give them more of an opportunity to work through their struggles. I keep going back to the fourth and fifth inning of Horton's recent start, and I was pretty sure that he was gassed and done after the fourth. He's still rounding into form, missing much of 2024, and his line of 4 IP, 4 K, 3 BB, 1 ER would have been perfectly respectable. He would have ended it on a little bit of a downer, giving up hard contact and a home run, but it would have been respectable. Instead, he gets another innings and struck out the final two hitters. Do I think those strikeouts will realistically affect his long-term development? No, they'll be a footnote in his history. But, mentally, ending the game striking out two hitters, one on an absolutely nasty slider, has to give you an added sense of confidence as you walk off the mound for the last time on the day. That could give Horton an edge in the mental game of baseball, and can give the Cubs an idea of how Horton responds to adversity. These are some things that go a bit beyond the data-driven game we have, but they still matter. Overall, this is probably a symptom of an evolution of how the Cubs coach, teach and handle their young arms. I doubt it will be the only thing, and it's going to be something to consistently look for as they evolve and change further as the season progresses. It might be time to stop expecting that their top prospects will be removed after four good innings and to, instead, get ready for them to come back out for a fifth. They will be given a chance to regularly challenge the order the third time through if they have earned it. They will be afforded the chance to work through their struggles. The fruits of this labor may not be immediately as noticeable as their total-batters-faced column on FanGraphs, but if I were you, I'd keep my eyes peeled for more things that standout as "different" from the past. It may just be the winds of change. What do you think about the Cubs' handling of their young arms? Are you worried that this could result in more injuries? Or do you think that this will help allow their pitchers to better overcome adversity? Let us know in the comment section below. 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https://www.mlb.com/video/frank-schwindel-homers-7-on-a-fly-ball-to-left-center-field Frank Schwindel. Same position *probably*. Same swing.

That weirdly feels low.

horsefeathers it, hes gonna get a grand slam. I'll call it now.

More *Cubs* runs please. (The bullpen might get the wrong idea)

Wildest. Game. Ever.

Just like you draw it up.

TUCK!!!!!!!

Carson Kelly - set up man?

Give em' credit - theyre efficient.

Me, who last saw the score after Busch's single to make it 7-1

With Mule, he looked good. Slider was snappy, fastball was sitting 94-95mph into the fourth. He wasn't missing wildly like he had been, there's been leaps and bounds better. No stat-cast, and I wasn't tracking whiff% as I went, so hard to report on that. FG has him on a 13.9% swinging strike% on the season which is better than last year. So some better signs there. I would say on the control thing, Wiggins and Mule are examples of pitchers who struggled heavily with throwing strikes at times and both looked controlled last night. I do think there's a bit of a misconception when we talk stuff and velocity and that velo is much like power; guys who sell out for power are giving up something else usually. There are examples of those who don't, but most of those are the elite hitters. Same can be said for pitching. People want these unicorns of velo and control (don't we all) but sometimes don't remember how a pitcher is generating that power. It can come from size (which is harder to create pitch consistency. The more human there is to control, the less easy it is to control all of it), mechanics (which usually requires sell out) or just over whelming movement (which is harder to control in and of itself). Basically, there's a give and a take, With K's will probably comes walks and visa-versa, It's not always but it's a probable trade off. I do think there's some progress being made with Wiggins and Mule so far. I won't say it's forvever or all the way fixed, we're still early and I think each pitcher needs to prove it longer and at higher levels. But I'm pleasantly surprised with what I've seen. On the length - I do think the Cubs are giving more leeway. I've got some recent examples in the article, but Horton, Wiggins and Mule in the last two days would have all probably not come back out for their last inning last year. I sadly don't have PC's, but I do have hitters faced, and the Cubs are letting their pitchers see more hitters right now and they're giving them some run way. I noticed myself convinced the last two days each pitcher's game was done...and each came back.

I thought he looked great. He was mechanically clean and overpowering. He threw 51 of 75 for strikes. Sadly, with it being High-A I'm going off vibes, feels, and the eye test (I watched most of his start last night on a split screen with Myrtle Beach and Mule going), so I can't give you any of the super fun data-stuff. That said, he looked every bit as good as the line last night IMO. (Also, on the length, last night got me into article mode. I'll have something coming out shortly on it, but the answer is definitively yes, Cubs' young pitchers are seeing more batters and more innings. I'm fully convinced it's not an accident)

Generally speaking, no. He's a career 40% ground ball guy. However, this year he's running a GB% 10% lower and I would classify that as approaching "fly ball territory". He's thrown his 4-seam far more this year and his sinker far less, so it may not just be a function of sample size. The Cubs are one of the highest 4-seam-fastball usage teams, so this change feels intentional. Whether or not he leans into the fastball or the sinker today could be a function of game plan or keeping with what is working.

I would guess as of right now, he's more "age over skill". He's a Myrtle Beach repeater, is 22-years old, and isn't a new-signing. That doesn't mean he has to be, but he probably has to do more than have two strong Myrtle weeks to break out of that moniker. If he can continue this type of a breakout at South Bend and end up in Tennessee we'll have to re-evaluate him.

Random observation, and please, someone either agree or disagree with me: does it seem as though Cub pitching prospects are going longer than they have in the past? Mule went back out for a 5th but got over 70 pitches. Horton went 5 yesterday. Wiggins went 5 and 70 pitches today. In past year, the Cubs top pitching prospects went more 3-4 innings, especially at the dawn of the season. Yet, this year, it feels like we're getting more IP and more pitches in general. Maybe a Zombro thing? Or maybe I'm just imaging things.

This guy is the real deal. I'll say it now: at the end of the year, I think there's a real chance he will be a top-10 organizational guy across the board with room to be a bit higher. This was a grade-A PA all-around and his swing has come so far in a short amount of time.

Wiggins cruising. 4IP, 6K, 2BB, 1ER Mule looking strong, 2 IP, 1 K, 0 H, 0 BB

It was less extrapolating and more a point of style. Horton is a pitcher who certainly throws a significant amount of his pitches in the strike zone and while I don't know if that will be 55%, or 53% or 52%, I don't expect that the general style of Horton will change drastically any time in the near future. It's who he is at this point. When it comes to the other options, until the Cubs make an external move, at least one of Rea/Wicks/Assad will have to be in the rotation as is. My example was for another injury to occur - meaning only two would remain (in theory, the two the Cubs would be less high on compared who whichever was in Steele's spot). I don't expect the Cubs to realistically make an external move for a while (based on how team have handled trades and the deadline since playoff expansion) so I doubt that the dynamics change much. Ultimately, I expect he'll get some run in the rotation. The Cubs went with Ben Brown in a somewhat similar manner last year and I think the Cubs internally (reading between the lines on Mooney's article today) are pretty high on Horton. I think he'll be more of a "here for a good time, not a long time" option with the inning limitations, but I think the Cubs would like to get a look at what he can add to the rotation a bit in 2025 as they enter next season. Call it a gut feeling if you will.

I think he'll probably see innings in the BP - either earlier or later - but I do think that he will also see time in the Cubs rotation, even if just a handful of starts. He was able to get through ~70 pitches yesterday sitting still at 95mph. It's certainly less than the 97-98mph he was hitting in his first 30 pitches regularly, but he was able to get through five. He's a pretty high-strike-frequency pitcher as well - yesterday he was at 55% in-zone pitches. Shota Imanaga averages just under 55% of his pitches in-zone this year, for a point of comparison, which is 20th of 137 qualified pitches in terms of how often he throws strikes. Ultimately, with extra conditioning and another 3-5 starts, I think we'll see that stamina increase to the 85 pitch range. For a high strike frequency pitcher, that's probably enough to get him through five more so than a less frequent strike thrower. I do think that he'd probably be someone who would be capable of getting through 5+ innings even if the Cubs have reservations of how many pitches he can throw in a game. And with injury and ability, I'd be surprised if the Cubs didn't turn to him at some point. My best guess is that sometime in May to June, Mathew Boyd of Ben Brown will go down for a hot minute (they just have the two longest injury histories, but it could be any of them). Cade Horton will be the guy they insert then; he'll have his arm built up and being that it's earlier in the year, he'll get the runway. If he makes, say, 8 starts (utilizing off days and extra rest) at around 4-5 innings a piece, he'll probably be around the 30-35+ IP mark with the Cubs and probably in the 75-90 range in total. Once pitcher X is back, Horton slides back to the BP for the conclusion of the year, and finishes around 100-120 IP. It would allow him to ramp up, build up innings but then slide into a more controlled and less volumized role as the year concludes. And allow the Cubs to strengthen the pen into October and (hopefully) beyond.