Jason Ross

Maybe. A reminder, that as exciting of a start it's been, he struggled there initially last year. He probably needs a few hundred PA's there to push through the improvements, allow the league to re-adjust to him, and then show staying ability through the progression. I think a mid-year move to Knoxville is on the table, so it depends on how "not long" you meant by. If it's then, then I agree.

They may. I do think a side effect of the Vlad contract is that we have a range now. For example, I don't think Kyle Tucker will top the total of $500m by Vlad for a few reasons; most notably age - Vlad is younger and thus you can extend his contract out longer. Tucker will likely top the AAV of Vlad. So this puts his deal around $3375-$450m IMO. The number the Tucker camp dropped to Lance Brodzkowski is $475m over 10. Expect that to be higher than what they'd sign for - it's a media leaked number. I don' think this is far away from what Tucker would have been expected to sign, say, in December when they traded for him, though, and again, with the Vlad cap, I think we have an idea that these numbers seem...relatively in line and not crazy. I think it's fair to assume two things about the Cubs as well: 1. They're not run by ignorant idiots. You may not always love every move, but every move remains logical and defensible if you look for it. It means they know the number Tucker would need pre-trade and have discussed that 2. That the Cubs didn't trade 3-years of Parades and Cam Smith just to put out a token offer to appease fans. I don't know if they'll get the job done, but the difference between $375m and $450m over 12 years is $6.25m. Justin Turner makes $6m in 2025. Again, assuming #1, that the Cubs aren't run by idiots, the difference between the low and the high numbers of that field is a Justin Turner each year - a backup corner expected to get maybe 300 PAs. In 10 years, with inflation, it will likely mean significantly less. It probably means an "in for a penny, in for a pound" situation - there just comes a point when you don't ring your hands over Justin Turners. If we expect the Cubs will earnestly offer the low end, I'm fairly sure that they would offer the high end if #2 remains true. I can also go through the Hoyer quotes again, but I'll leave that be. Point is...I really think the Cubs will give a good run on Tucker and that the end will probably be Tucker's choice more so than the Cubs refusal.

Mike usually sucks. His sources tend to be Latin America related when he has them, and this doesn't feel like it fits that category. *But* Mike tweeted details of Blue Jays/Vlad stuff around the time it was going down. Maybe that's a blind nut, or the Latin America connection...but it adds a little credence here. Mike also used to work with the Cubs a while ago - he tends to tweet Cubs related things. According to him the Cubs were interested in Correa far more than others would report. So, maybe this is that. Or maybe he's got something. On top of that, Kyle Tucker's camp was leaking numbers to Lance Brodkowski. Which makes this feel a bit more real - you don't leak numbers unless you want to talk numbers. There's always a reason to leak. On the flip side, it could be Mike trying to play off recently found legitimacy to garner clicks.

I was pretty happy not remembering Zach Davis. Thanks for ruining that.

Cosgrove is interesting. 11 degree arm angle. Thats fun.

Good to see Mule finding some consistency. Last year the stuff flashed but he was all over the place.

Horton looked much better after he warmed to. First two hitterd was a little rough but he settled in much better.

Makes sense all things considered. Killian ain't it and the Cubs would probably rather go to Cosgrove in a pinch than going with Killian at this stage.

Lance Brodkowski, on Marquee the other day, had sources from the Kyle Tucker camp that suggested 10/$475m is what would keep him in Chicago. I know the initial reaction from many will be "Omg it'll never happen", but I don't share the feeling. 1. The Cubs are generally on the cautious side of prospects when it comes to trading. It would not follow that they would just use prospects for what would be considered, a one year rental. At least, a rental without a chance to resign him. 2. Jed Hoyer spoke this offseason about how they would sign big contracts at time some point, but it takes a long time to get these deals together - that they don't happen over night. Then they traded for Kyle Tucker, 11 months before he became a FA. Sounds like a lot of time, huh? 3. Jed Hoyer just recently said Tucker is a "good player to build a lineup around. He's a good player to build a team around". Hoyer is usually pretty careful in his words. That probably is on purpose. 4. If Kyle Tucker's camp is leaking numbers - that's not a "no". You do that when you're willing to talk. We haven't heard Tucker and his camp laying down a deadline "I won't negotiate mid year" or anything. Leaking numbers is good. 5. 10/$475m isn't crazy bad. I think eventually the team who signs him flattens that 10 into 12 to spread the AAV. Also considering this is the "leaked" number is usually the high water mark, getting him down around $450m feels like it' pretty doable for all sides. Do I think the Cubs will sign him? No. But I expect the Cubs internally love Tucker the player. They have said they would be willing to sign a big name. They aren't idiots and knew what Tucker would cost. And neither camp is acting like it's a no. I do think the Cubs will put forth a real competitive offer to Tucker. I think a reasonable offer is something at 12 years and between $425-450m. I think Tucker would sign that contract.

I really thought that if the Cubs got off to a bad start that we would see some whispers of "Trade Tucker at the deadline?" talk from fans. I did not, however anticipate that that being in first in the NL Central as Kyle Tucker leads the charge would also result in "trade Tucker at the deadline?" talk from fans.

You guys are giving me the warm and fuzzies tonight.

First - nothing I said was anything less than "factual". I wasn't telling lies, instead, I was expanding on data. That the velocity drop isnt new, its been on going for a while. His velo dipped below 92mph consistently after July. It was dipping before too. Secondly, you're the one who jumped *immediately* to "put him on the 60 day IL". Yes. That is panicking. There's plenty of steps in between that and what happened, jumping there is skipping a bunch. Perhaps new information will come out as we go. It wouldnt be shocking to see him have an extended stay. It *may* lead to TJS. Jumping directly from "the Cubs put Steele on the 15 day IL" to where you did, is panic city. Let's see where it goes before we dump him on a 60 Day slot. Last time he did this he missed 15 days. It very well could be that again and there's enough reason to believe it'll be closer to that to stay grounded. If he's still on the IL come Mid-May, it'll be closer to time to worry about a greater injury. I'll probably join you on the highway to panic city myself.

I figure with doing the pod and writing - I'd formalize it a little. But also mostly for you, JH. 😂

Theyre going to lose 65-70 games even in a good year. This is likely one of those.

Well, "just before" is a bit spurious. His velo drop has been dating back for a while. It was after August it dipped below 92mph. The velo drop isn't new, and it's been persistent at around 92mph. Again, it's not good, but creating order of panic by proclaiming it's TJS right now is quite early. Thus far the Cubs have done well to avoid blowing arms up - let's give them some credit that they understand what they're doing here. Position players have been less cut and dry with IL trips, but the Cubs do well by their pitchers. I would say it's quite convenient from a Cubs perspective that he's hitting the 15 day IL now after a really cold week and a weird ST, especially with the off time they've had. Colin Rea has been used sparingly as well. It could be more of a planned break for Steele than a true TJS indicator (not to diminish the injury, Im sure hes banged up).

His velo has been down since August. Eovladi's velo was down 3mph on Monday, too. His start against Arizona was his second highest velo since July 2024. He was pretty excellent last year even during a lowered velo. Lets not create an undue panic. Is it good his velo is lowered than it was a bit about go? No. Is it good he's on the IL with elbow tendinitis? No. Does that mean he should be a 60-day guy and on TJS watch? Also, no. The Cubs have done a great job avoiding TJS with their arms, they deserve a bit of a benefit of the doubt here. Id rather not be in this position, but until he actually has a TJS issue, it's probably best to look at this like September more than anything.

Theres still time and all, but today has that feeling of a "bummer game" where they just lose. Not where they blow a weird lead, but a normal, loss. Certainly they have the offense to get back in, but we haven't had many games like that so far.

Im really beginning to love Michael Busch. I always liked him, but he's really become a stabilizing bat. He's never going to be Kyle Tucker but he's just good.

Some interesting Cubs pitching data from Lance Brozdowski - Cubs pitchers in general have *really* leaned into 4 seam fastballs. They are leading the league in 4 seam usage. - Jameson Taillon has significantly increased his 4 seam usage. It was an objectively bad pitch last year. It's better this year (94 stuff+) but still not good. - Suggests it could be weather related.

Tucker. Oh no.

Good horsefeathers, Hodge.

This is a really fun Cubs' offense. They do a lot of things well.

The Cubs probably don't feel the need to carry one. Happ and Tucker could probably fill in if need be. Jon Berti has played there in limited roles. With a PCA IL trip, it would almost assuredly be Kevin Alcantara being called up. He's so good defensively and running that you don't really need to sit him. And the Cubs are off almost every Thursday for a while, so there's a lot of rest days.

This is my life with my phone. Always. For whatever reason, my phone's GPS thinks I live in Indianapolis. I don't. I don't even live in Indiana. I live 3 hours away from Indianapolis, but internally, my phone feels I do. Good news for me; Indianapolis is considered to be close enough to Chicago that it blacks out all games. As long as I connect to a wifi, I'm fine, however.