Jason Ross

Here's a name I'm starting to really like: SS, Wehiwa Aloy. I like the swing. He's been moving up boards. Coincidentally, BP just added him as a name they like a bunch as well. Great data on EV, and his patience. Probably a little too passive against the FB...but I like this one.

Brown looks good today.

When researching all of the Arizona heartbreaking losses, I got time a point where it just went to a place of "oh? The pircher got a hit? Yeah." And you just started laughing.

Conversely, a single bad outing when a RP just doesn't have it that day, can make it appear another. With that said, analyzing relievers full seasons isn't so susceptible to a 10 PA sample size that it throws that entire season off. And the reality when it comes to Morgan last season is that he showed a real ability to create chase and limit hard contact. Even the lucky parts (his high LOB%) wasn't so lucky that it effected his xData to a point of worry. I think that's the best indicator as of today as to what we should see until last night becomes more than a single data point. Morgan isn't someone the Cubs should want to rely on in an 8th inning role often. And many nights the Cubs may have options when someone falls apart. As a 6th/7th inning guy, I still feel the same about him as I did Sunday at 3pm in that he's fine in that role.

There are aspects of luck to Eli Morgan's last season, however, lucky does not always mean that he will regress to being bad either. So, while Morgan's 85% LOB% is much too high, and we should probably not expect an ERA of 1.93 from him, it isn't like he wasn't good. Morgan still posted a 3.46 FIP, and had an xERA of 2.51. The good about Eli Morgan is that he limits hard contact because he induces a lot of chase. He's not a stuff+ monster so the way he induces that soft contact is because hitters chase his pitches and end up hitting it poorly. Part of Morgan's issue yesterday is that he didn't get the chase he normally does. Here is his swinging strikes t the Dodgers compared to last night: Notice how on the left, the Dodgers chased him to death where as on the right, the Diamondbacks...didn't. He was also far too much in the zone. Morgan can't do that and survive. If Morgan acts like he did on the left, he should be fine. Sadly, with someone like Morgan, if he's not getting guys to chase him, he doesn't have the stuff to fall back on to generate good outcomes in the zone. It's the push and pull here.

Per the Weather Channel looks like there will be rain, but should be clear for the game. Rain drops after 5pm local time.

I think the Cubs are pretty sold on the idea that the kids are going to be "next man up" at almost any position, but it's assumption there. I think Turner will get a crack at it, but I also think he's limited. His age is getting up there, his bat speed is slowing down...I think he's more suited to be a part of the 1b solution as opposed to the solution. So then you're left trying to figure out...with whom? Ballesteros is probably best served playing C in Iowa and learning the position. I really like Long, but he's only just gotten to Triple-A, I doubt he's ready. Caissie is left handed, and it's first base, not short stop. I'm really spitballing here, but the Cubs have appeared to be pretty high on Caissie. It seems like any time he comes up in trade talks the Cubs walk out of that deal. So I think the team will be interested in giving him a route to the MLB beyond simply RF. Then again, I've been known to be wrong! In which case I'll just delete this post

Oh they traded him! Damnit! I sorted their bullpen data from 2024 the other day and compared it to their starters entirely forgetting trades happen. Fine, just don't pitch to Jason Giambi and we're all good.

Last night sucked, but in a 162 game year, sometimes that horsefeathers happens. It's infuriating, but it's baseball. Joey Estes was super not good last year. He doesn't throw hard, he doesn't limit contact. Don't let last night bleed into today and go beat up on an uninspiring arm. Don't find yourself down late and see Erceg and Miller. Do that and we can all move forward.

Thanks! And welcome to NSBB! Glad you found us

Baseball is a 162-game slog that starts in March, ends in November, and allows for all sorts of odd outcomes and occurrences in between. For some reason, when it comes to the Cubs, regardless of the year, those odd things seem to happen in Arizona. It can't just be bad luck... can it? Image courtesy of © Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Entering the eighth inning Sunday with what felt like a fairly comfortable 6-2 lead, new Cubs reliever Eli Morgan imploded on the mound, surrendering the Cubs' hard-earned effort (and then some). Morgan ended up wasting home runs from Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki and Kyle Tucker by giving up an impressive six runs in total. The cherry on top of his performance? Pitcher Ryne Nelson got a hit. Yes, the Arizona Diamondbacks, who lost their ability to use a designated hitter when they moved Ketel Marte (the starting DH in a day game to close out their season-opening series) to second, had run out of bench players. This forced the rare event in which a pitcher has to hit in the era of the league wide DH. And of course, the pitcher picked up a base knock, and an RBI, to boot. You shouldn't have expected anything else. This is what happens when the Cubs play in Arizona. It explains that feeling of deja vu you probably feel right now, that you've seen this happen before; because you have. The Cubs have history with Arizona in this ballfield of horrors. It's hard to pinpoint when exactly the mojo of the field changed, but perhaps it started during October 2007, when the Cubs visited Arizona for the NL Division Series. Those Cubs were a pretty fun team, winning 85 games. They had finally recovered from their historic 2004 collapse, with a bunch of new faces. Alfonso Soriano had signed a record deal; Ted Lilly and Mark DeRosa were more complementary but equally crucial free-agent additions. Rookie pitcher Rich Hill was a fun infusion of youth to the rotation. The Cubs were pretty good! Then the desert struck back; it won't allow the Cubs any happiness. No, just when the Cubs were poised to take the lead in the sixth inning behind a strong performance from Carlos Zambrano, everything changed. With the bases loaded, Cubs shortstop Ryan Theriot laced a single that tied the game with two outs, but it was all the team could muster. It was time for heartbreak, as immediately after entering the game in the seventh, Cubs reliever Carlos Marmol served up a home run, and the Cubs would never tie the game. They went on to lose a second game in Arizona, all but sealing their fate in the 2007 playoffs. Along the way, they squandered an early lead when Lilly gave up a two-strike, two-out grand slam, and he immediately provided the lasting visual image of that era's playoff ineptitude. After the disappointments of 2007 (and then in 2008, when the 97-win Cubs fell to the Dodgers in similar fashion), Chicago hoped that 2009 would be the year they finally won a World Series. As April came to a close, the 10-9 Cubs had scuffled a bit out of the gate, but it was still early. On April 29th, Chase Field would rear its ugly head once again. The Cubs sent Ryan Dempster to the hill against Doug Davis. If you looked just at their final numbers, you'd have thought that this was advantage Cubs. Dempster finished the year with a sparkling 2.96 ERA, while Doug Davis was merely "okay". Yet, the final score on April 29 did not reflect this at all. When the final out was recorded, the Cubs had lost 10-0, recording just two hits. The Cubs were the better team, but Chase Field was just too damn powerful. The next competitive Cubs window was from 2015-2020, and the trouble would continue. In the first year of that window, the Cubs swept Arizona at Wrigley, but they lost a pair of one-run games in Phoenix. The standout in the set was on May 22nd. In a time before the ghost runner was a glimmer in Rob Manfred's eye, the game entered the 10th inning tied 2-2. Kris Bryant and Starlin Castro both singled to give the Cubs a two-run lead. Cubs closer Héctor Rondón quickly got two outs, and the game looked all but won. Then, like the strike and snap of a rattlesnake: an AJ Pollock single, followed by a Paul Goldschmidt home run. The game was back to being tied. In the top of the 13th, the Cubs once again threatened, only to come up short Miguel Montero flied out with two on, and a Jorge Soler groundout let the Snakes off the hook. Chase Field then summoned an unlikely hero; to drive the dagger home: career 29 wRC+ hitter, Tuffy Gosewisch. Gosewisch wangled a double (one of just 23 career extra-base hits, in 447 trips to the plate), putting the Cubs in danger. Nick Ahmed, who in all but this scenario would be among the weakest hitters in the game, brought Gosewisch home to steal the game. Chase Field works in mysterious ways, The following year, the Cubs had an early-season trip to Arizona, but this time, the team was even stronger. After adding Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward and other big free agents, the Cubs were favorites to win the division and were poised to maybe even win an elusive World Series. They would go on to do just that, winning 103 games in the regular season on their way. Arizona, conversely, would only win 69 games. April 8th, 2016, would be on one of the 69. The Cubs built an early two-run lead that Friday, as new addition Heyward walked with the bases loaded and Zobrist hit into a fielder's choice that brought Cubs starter Jason Hammel home. Hammel would keep the Snakes scoreless through six, until Goldschmidt put the D'Backs on the board in the seventh. He wasn't done, however, as he came up again in the 8th and hit a single off Cubs setup man Pedro Strop, to tie the game. With two down and a runner on second in the next frame, Yasmany Thomas singled home Chris Owings for another walk-off win. It happened again. I'm burying the lede there, of course. The real sacrifice the Cubs had to make to the godless heathen monster of Chase FIeld that year wasn't a gut-punch loss; it was Kyle Schwarber's entire knee. It was in deep left-center there that Schwarber and Dexter Fowler collided, resulting in the catastrophic injury that set up Schwarber to be an unlikely playoff hero but also altered his career. In 2018, the two-time defending NL Central champs were on the verge of securing their third straight crown and cruising into the Division Series. By mid-September, though, they were also three weeks into what became six during which they practically lived without an off day. They won the first two games in Arizona that month, but their loss on getaway day—a 9-0 shellacking in which their only hit was a third-inning single by Addison Russell—became emblematic of the fatigue that overtook them as the season wound to an end. It's astounding, still, to remember that the eventual NL pennant-winning 2023 Diamondbacks only got to the postseason (with 84 wins) by beating the Cubs (83 wins) six times in seven September meetings. The signature game of that stretch was the Saturday affair in Arizona on Sept. 16. That was the game that featured a madcap three-run Cubs rally in the fifth, as the amuse bouche for an orgiastic buffet of baseball torture. In a tie game, the Cubs put three runners on in the seventh, but one was erased on a caught stealing and they never did collect a hit. No runs. There were two overturned replays (one for each team) and one failed one (by the Cubs) even before the game reached extra innings. Then: The Cubs started the 10th inning with Nico Hoerner on second. They got an infield single, a double-steal, a throwing error, and two walks, but came away with only Hoerner's run. In the middle of that: a ball hitting the knob of Cody Bellinger's bat as he tried to avoid being hit by a pitch, and going right back to the mound for an out. (The Cubs challenged again, to no avail.) The Diamondbacks tied the game back up on the very first at-bat of the bottom of the 10th (this was the beginning of the desperate attempt to bring Marcus Stroman back from his injury as a reliever, to save an injury-ravaged bullpen), but the Cubs held them at bay. The automatic runner and two more hits only netted the Cubs one run in the 11th, as another runner was tagged out between third and home on an ill-timed comebacker to the pitcher. The Diamondbacks again tied the score very easily in the 11th. The Diamondbacks loaded the bases in the bottom of the 12th, but couldn't score. Another bad call (this one non-reviewable) gave the Cubs a run in the top of the 13th, but only by turning what should have been a foul ball into an awkward double play. The Cubs would have been better off with the foul. With runners on the corners, two strikes and two outs, a line drive back up the middle hit Hayden Wesneski and popped harmlessly to the spot at shallow shortstop where Dansby Swanson made such a brilliant play this weekend. That time, though, Swanson couldn't get to the ricochet in time, and the tying run trotted home. The Diamondbacks then won on a breathtakingly close play at the plate, with the ancient Evan Longoria beating the even older (in baseball age, if not actual years) Yan Gomes on a great slide. That play, too, was reviewed, but it was upheld. That game, in hindsight, encapsulated the Cubs' failure to hold onto their playoff position that September. They tried everything, and it wasn't enough. Typical, when they're in Arizona. You can even look at last year, once again in April. That time, the affair saw a mammoth 23 runs scored in a crazy, back-and-forth slugfest. First, it was Arizona taking a quick 4-1 lead behind Lourdes Guerriel Jr. and Joc Pederson home runs. The Cubs countered with a Miguel Amaya triple, an Alexander Canario double and a Bellinger triple—only for them to find themselves down 8-5 again, entering the seventh. The Cubs once again exploded, scoring six runs, capped by an Ian Happ home run putting the Cubs up once again, 11-8. Arizona would go on to score in the seventh, the eighth and the ninth to tie the game. In the 10th inning, it took just two pitches for Randal Grichuk to hit a double off Drew Smyly to bring home the 12th and final run of the game. This cannot be a coincidence. If you still need some proof that this not just anecdotal, that there's something larger at play here, perhaps the all-time records against each other would drive that home. Since the Arizona Diamondbacks have joined the league, the Cubs are a lowly 88-101 against them. Where things get weird, however, is in looking at the home/road record. When playing Arizona in the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field, the Cubs are two games over .500, with a 47-45 record. Once you send the Cubs out West, things change, as they are whopping 15 games in the red, with a total record of 41-56. This isn't a story of one-off heartbreaks, the Cubs just fall under a hex when they play at Chase. Morgan blowing up in the eighth was destined to happen, it was written in the scrolls long before the game even started. Chase Field and the Chicago Cubs have beef; there's no question. When the Cubs travel to Arizona, something happens, and I am not entirely sure what it is. A rational person would tell you that it's just a bunch of coincidence—that baseball is a long battle of attrition, and within that, you're bound to find oddities. Normally, I'm that rational human being. But, just this once, after looking at every little thing... I think, instead, I side with a famous line from Steve Carell's character from The Office. I'm not superstitious, but I am a little -stitious. At least when it comes to Chase Field. Do you remember any devastating losses to Arizona we missed? Which one was your—ahem—favorite? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

Give him all the money.

I doubt it. They've done the challenge system in Triple-A. It works well and runs quickly. You barely notice it. And it's probably a lot easier to implement that than try to fight the umpire union to go full bot-zone.

Never say never and all that jazz, but Id guess it's incredibly unlikely they do a fully automated zone next year. Challenge system feels like the way they will go.

Seiya!

Yet is the opporitive word here. I expect he will see some time there in 2025, however, to add versatility. The Cubs really enjoy when their players have paths. Johnny Long was seen getting ample time at 3b on the backfields during camp. The Cubs, last season, messed around with the idea (never in an MLB game but internally at practice) of Morel at 1b. Caissie has the size and bat to play some 1b now, and may have to move there down the road. I say this as the self-proclaimed captain of the Owen Caissie Fan Club, as well. I very much believe he's a capable OF'er currently, but how long that remains is somewhat iffy. Another point; Michael Busch, before Opening as the Cubs starting 1b, logged only 17 games in the Dodgers system at 1b and just 7 of those came after 2021. We have very recent data points to suggest the Cubs are unafraid of making someone into a 1b on the fly. Maybe I'm entirly off base here, but I would be very surprised if he doesn't get looks at 1b, to both give him multiple paths to make the MLB club, and to give the Cubs multiple options in the event of a Busch injury. It could be that the Cubs felt far more comfortable with doing that with Busch in that he was already an infielder, or that the Cubs already know Caissie just can't field ground balls, so there are things that we cannot know. But I'll be surprised if Caissie doesn't get a look there to expand his versaitility.

Every year, the beginning of a new season brings many things, one of which is always "hope". Hope that the Cubs win enough games in the regular season to make the playoffs, hope their players play well and hope that their young players progress. Who might be on "call-p watch" in 2025? Who might make an impact in Chicago? Image courtesy of Iowa Cubs Baseball season is literally right around the corner, and if you've been focused mostly on the Chicago Cubs 26-man roster, their roster decisions, and who is thriving early on, I wouldn't blame you — this is arguably the most exciting Cubs team since 2018. With that said, the Cubs will have a pretty exciting minor league system in 2025 (as they've had over the last few years) and one that is worth monitoring as the season goes along. There is a lot of talent close to "the Show", but some intriguing prospects who are bubbling just below the surface. Over the next few days here at NSBB, we're going to take a look at some of the players who might break out, players who you might see in Chicago in 2025, and where, on those day-offs for the big league squad, you should spend your time paying attention to. I have already taken a look a few prospects who have the potential to breakout, so make sure you don't miss out on who I think could have big seasons in 2025. Today, I'll look at a few names that could make their way to Chicago throughout the season. Let's get this out of the way quickly — this article will not be another article on Kevin Alcantara, Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros, James Triantos or Cade Horton. At this point, I think it's pretty well assumed that if these names remain relatively healthy that they will make their way to Chicago for their MLB debuts. All of these names represent the Cubs "plan B" for injury for their MLB roster For example, if Michael Busch goes down in July, expect to see Caissie or Ballesteros fill in. If Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a quad, it's likely that Alcantara will take over. The only thing standing in the way of these names making their debut with the Cubs would be seemingly their own injury issues or a mid-summer trade out of the organization. No, this article is about some of the others in the Cubs system who have a chance to make an impact. These players may not have the high-ceiling impact of Shaw or Alcantara, but could be the sneaky-important fringe players who help get the Cubs through a rough patch, fill a more specialized role, or burst on to the scene in a way we didn't have on our 2025 Vision Boards. Don't discount these names — they're a few guys who I think could really shake things up in a good way. Keep an eye out for reliever Riley Martin As the Cubs enter the year, their bullpen will likely only have a single left-hander among the group in former Minnesota Twin Caleb Thielbar. Coming off of a down season, which saw Thielbar's ERA climb from 3.21 (which is what he averaged from 2020-2023) to 5.31 last season, the reality is that the lefty doesn't have an iron-grip on the role for the entire season as of right now. There are reasons to believe he'll get it together, but if he can't, then the Cubs will have to look for alternatives. Luke Little is probably "next man up", but don't discount Riley Martin in this role. Martin is flat-out one of my favorite stories in the Cubs MiLB system. Signed for a few thousand dollars, I immediately wrote him off as a slot-savings signing. While he offered a fun curveball, the rest of the package seemed pretty uninspired on draft day, and coming out of Quincy, he felt like even more of a long-shot than your typical sixth-round pick. Maybe that's why I love his story so much. Martin already made the Cubs Spring Breakout Roster (where I wrote about him once before this offseason), but is in prime position to jump to the Cubs active roster if a left-handed option is needed. Featuring a plus-curveball with really impressive spin, and a fastball that has seen its velocity stick in the mid-90's, the lefty seems poised to make his debut this year. There's a bit of a concern with his control, as Martin did walk 16% of hitters in Triple-A, but he offset that by striking out 32% of hitters. He also gets a lot of ground balls (which makes sense — curveballs tend to result in grounders), which helps alleviate the walks with twin-killings. On top of that, Martin had a strong spring showing, both in MLB camp and in the Breakout game. It will only take a single injury or early Thielbar hiccups for Martin's name to be at the top of the list for potential replacements. Don't sleep on Frankie Scalzo Frankie Scalzo has been a name that you probably wouldn't have noticed if all you did was peruse top prospect lists. A former 14th round selection out of Grand Canyon, the righty hasn't made any top-20 lists, and isn't the flashiest arm coming out of the bullpen. Despite that, if you sorted the Cubs' MiLB system by ERA, you'd typically find the righty at or near the top of any list, in almost any season, since being drafted. He wouldn't be the first arm to be just good enough for minor league ball but not good enough to project to the majors, and heading into camp this year, that's probably in the tier I'd have put him in. Showing up in 2025, with a strong camp, and a nice showing at the Breakout game, I'm beginning to believe he's probably jumped a level and is likely to debut in Chicago. Sporting a fastball that can hit mid-90s regularly and flashes a bit better, it's his slider that's become a real weapon. As a fastball-slider guy, it's probable that he's going to be pigeonholed into being someone who struggles against left-handed hitters, which isn't perfect, but you can work with that profile. As Tyson Miller has already hit the IL with a hip impingement, it leaves room for Scalzo Jr. to jump up the internal reliever list. The Cubs will probably need a bunch of relievers in 2025 with how often players go down to ailments, so while it's fair to expect someone like Jack Neely to get the call above Scalzo to start, he isn't buried so far down that he couldn't play a role. Oh, also... he's got an 80-grade mustache. Does that play a role in my scouting? Guilty as charged. He passes the vibe check. Could Statcast darling Jonathon Long be a factor? I started this article off discussing why I didn't include Owen Caissie on this list, and then went on to outline how if Michael Busch were to go down, Caissie or Ballesteros would be called upon to be the backup. However, I think there could be a third name to that list: Jonathon Long. Long was a ninth-round pick out of Long Beach State, and all he's done since being drafted is hit. The right-handed hitter also, seemingly, checks off every box — he makes a lot of contact, he walks, he has strong exit velocities. He's everything you could want. Importantly, he started to turn his strong EV's into home runs last year in Tennessee, hitting out 17 bombs through 114 games. Maybe you quibble and say you'd like to see more, but I'll leave that to you. Where the questions on Long come in are when the discussion turns to his defensive home. Honestly, that's why I think he belongs on this list. While I don't think he's a natural fit at third, he could potentially force the issue here. He's seen some limited action at the hot corner through his time with the organization, and I'm curious as to who the team's backup plan is to Shaw if his struggles are deemed too much. James Triantos could be an option, but if Long is hitting the ball really well, it's not insane to think the Cubs could give him a look there, defensive questions be damned. With Caissie working back from offseason surgery, Long could be an early option at first, or even in the outfield, as he's played some left field, too. Long is defensively best suited for first, but again, the bat and injuries could force him into some other places. There's enough under the hood that he's not so much of a... Long-shot (I'll see myself out) to make the roster at some point. If he does, there's enough there to make you think he could hit so well he'd never go back. Who do you think might might the Chicago Cubs during the 2025 season? Are there some prospects you think could take the next step? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

Just how you draw it up.

Just a question - if Pressley blows this save... Can he retroactively use his NTC and go back to Houston?

Goddamnit, I threw away my meme I made last night. I didn't think I'd need it any more. Just hit him. IDC.

Can you please come yell at my adult league team like this?

Arizona's infield defense doesn't feel that great.

Hodge came back big. Good job.