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Jason Ross

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  1. Conversely, wouldn't you want to lure a new VP of Baseball OPs in with "oh yeah, we have a top-5 position player in baseball"? (Just spitballing to your last point as a point of discuission) I've been pretty adamant I thought the Cubs would come to the table in good with Tucker at some point. So I'm glad we're hearing this. I think I agree with your first part fully.
  2. The hat itself is fine - the white wall works! What doesn't is the logo on the hat. You can only read CUBS from up close, from any sort of distance it's mush. From far away, the C itself does not necessarily read "CUBS" C so much as it could a Reds-C with the wishboning. It makes it a bit of a mess. It's a word-heavy logo. No other MLB team uses words. Instead, the Cubs should use the rocker-bear. It uses the light blue and pops in the red which ties it all together. It also uses no lettering and words. It's also "faux" back, in that it evokes the old bear logo the Cubs have used in the past giving a connection like the CUBS does (to the CUBS logo they have used with the large C) but without breaking poor design. Not only that, the rocker bear would kill it merch wise. I think it's a cohesive look, and it's fun. It's not a primary hat look by any means, but I don't want the alternate blues to be a primary look. They are already kind of jumping the shark with the guitar pick, so have fun. Rocker-bear-hat makes that a better and more cohesive full-uniform while also pushing it squarely into "ALT" territory where it belongs.
  3. Self confessed uni-nerd here, and you know I love you Matt, but...big no. Not that I don't like the alternates, but for a few reasons, both rooted in MLB uniform tradition and Cub tradition these aren't good enough as primary uniforms, nor are they proper primary uniforms. First, while it's true the Cubs have only truly adopted the pins in the 1950's, it's still nearly 70 years of running that as a primary look. It might not be as unchanged as the Cardinals (though the Cardinals tweaked and messed with the script/cardinal combo from the 20's to the 50's, sometimes ignoring the cardinals all together, other times being more navy heavy than red...etc) but it's been a round for the better part of 100 years as a mainstay. To be fair to the Dodgers, they did not adopt the script+red number until 1952, previously just uysing the script. The Cubs also wore the pinstripes during their WS win. There's something to say about the uniform that breaks the curse and teams tend to keep winning uniforms around. Secondly, one of the uniform traditions in baseball is that the primary uniform be white. I like an alternative color look here or there as a nice change of pace, but white at home should be primary. There are a few other good rules to follow (for example, road uniforms should be city name, not nickname) but white-at-home feels..sacred to me. Lastly, the hat doesn't work. A good hat logo needs no words to tell you who they are. A singular letter is enough. Think of it like this; a good flag doesn't need to say what it's representing as such, the Reds and the Cubs can both have C's on their hats but I know a Cubs C and a Reds C. That the Cubs use a logo on the hat that spells out CUBS is a poor design. It'd be like if the Japanese flag had to write JAPAN on it. (For anyone interested in vexillology, or the study of flags, this is a really amazing Ted Talk on the subject regarding how bad city flags are) They're a cool change of pace and I like them far better as a uniform than the WRIGLEYVILLE drab navy they rocked the previous years, but I think their a novel rarity other than a uniform designed so well that they work as a consistently good advertisement for team at home.
  4. Dave Kaplan: "I'm hearing the Cubs have wrapped their brain around, doesn't mean he'll accept it, wrapped their brain around whatever it costs, we're paying it and they want to keep Tucker...what I'm hearing". This is from his recent pod that dropped today.
  5. I think the natural thing would be is to say "the home run power concerns me" but it's not a massive issue for me currently. I'd love to see him hit more HR's, and I think we're probably talking the profile, of say, 20--25 HR's more than anything. But I think the hitter he most reminds me of is early-career Freddie Freeman. Through age-25, Freeman had hit no more than 23 home runs in any singular season while hitting <20 home runs multiple times. As a first baseman! As he got older the power came more often and he hit more, but those first few years he was still a good hitter regardless. I don't want to say "Moises Ballesteros is Freddie Freeman" but that he does well enough at most things that he can survive in that 18-25 HR range, even if he's a 1b/DH. The bat will probably play. He's currently in the following percentiles in Triple-A: wOBA: 98 xwOBA: 82 Average EV: 81 Max EV: 77 He's hitting it pretty hard. He's not an elite EV monster, but he's probably plenty good enough that it's not a massive concern. As a DH this is a less exciting profile, but probably fine. If he can catch 50-60 games between 1b and DH? He instantly becomes a very strong prospect. It's why we are probably lucky the Cubs are doing well enough that we aren't having to rush him up.
  6. Jack Bauer is being consistently ranked within the top-75 draft eligible players. With his fastball velocity, I think it's likely a team will select him between Comp-A, Second Round and Comp-B and overslot him. Conor Essenburg has a commitment to the University of Kentucky. While Kentucky commits are not the same as a Vandy lock, UK was able to keep second round SS Tyler Bell in school last year even after he was drafted. NIL money is real even for baseball. As of now, I think Essenburg may be selected in the 11th-20th rounds as a sign-and-try but I would guess he ends up in Lexington. As a UK Alumni, that would be a good outcome for the team. Luke Mensik has a commitment to Xavier. This is far less of a lock than an SEC school. Feels like he would be a candidate for an 11th-20th round pick and would be more likely to be bought out of a commitment. Whether or not they stick with an MLB org long term? Best answer I can give is; if anyone knows for sure, they should immediately be hired by an MLB org haha. Prep arms are impossible to forecast - there's a long road to develop and many pitfalls on top of injury. No shade at any of them, it's just that the road to MLB pitching is littered with great players who just couldn't hold up to that standard. It's being the 1% of the 1%. But wish all three the best!
  7. The minor leagues are in full swing, and the Cubs system is off to a pretty fun start. Each team may not be winning their division, but most of the Cubs' best prospects remain strong. In fact, the Cubs are playing well enough at their highest levels that players such as Moises Ballesteros don't even have a realistic path to playing time, unless and until injuries happen. If you're the type who likes to follow the youngsters, this has been a fun year to follow the guys at the top of the lists—as well as dive a little deeper into the sleeper categories. Full System Rating: 🤷‍♂️ Kind of a weird week, all things considered. Shaw walked a lot, but made weak contact. Nazier Mule and JP Wheat struck out a lot of guys, but walked a lot of them, too. For every Ballesteros going off or Ivan Brethowr continuing his good run, you find a Pedro Ramirez, who struggled. It's not a bad week, but not a good week. That's not a complaint; I think the year has been very good to Cubs prospects (despite the records). It's just that there have been some high standards set, and I don't think enough of the system got there this week. Iowa Cubs, Triple-A (2-3) Up next: vs Buffalo Bisons (Toronto Blue Jays) 🔥 Moises Ballesteros, C/1b - 218 wRC+, 8.7 K%, 13 BB%, 2 XBH: I don't want to get too carried away but this is some kind of a heater he's on. He hit .500 this week, is walking more than he's striking out and is just on cruise control. I know that the feeling will be "well bring him up", but I just don't think there's a spot yet. Regardless, he's doing everything and more with the I-Cubs. 🔥 Cade Horton, SP - 4 2/3 IP, 5 K, 1 BB, 0 ER, 0 R: Unlike Ballesteros, I think Horton is getting close to a callup with the Cubs. He's not there yet, but his pitch count is up over 75; he induced 11 whiffs; and he's looking overpowering right now. With Ben Brown struggling to stick the landing in the starting rotation, Horton could be used as a possible replacement as soon as mid-May—if he continues on his current path. 🥶 Matt Shaw, INF - 110 wRC+, 4.3 K%, 13 BB%, 2 XBH: The line may not reflect the rating, but hear me out. Shaw has been walking well and controlling the zone, but his quality of contact has been pretty weak. The good news is that, on Sunday, he had a double and a home run and looked far better. I think he's just a bit off, mechanically. If he can use Sunday as a springboard, he'll be back in Chicago sooner rather than later. 🥶 Christian Franklin, OF - -70 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 11.1 BB%: Ugh... literally the same week I dove deep and wrote glowingly on the outfielder (which you can read here), Franklin goes hitless. Thanks, Christian, really making me look credible! For real, though, it was a bit of a wonky week weather-wise, and these things happen. I won't hold it against them, and my beliefs ring true on him still. 👨‍⚕️ James Triantos, INF: I'm going to add an update on Triantos this week. The Cubs infielder is one of the few off to a rough start to his 2025 year. Sporting a 42 wRC+, he's struggling at the plate. Beyond the brutal time offensively, the last time he played a game was the 17th. Since then, he's been sidelined with a tight leg. Hopefully, he makes it back soon. Knoxville Smokies, Double-A (2-4) Up next: vs Rocket City Trash Pandas (Los Angels Angels) 🥶 Pedro Ramirez, INF - -7 wRC+, 18.5 K%, 3.5 BB%: Not a great week for the diminutive infielder. He's been red-hot to start the season, so it's a forgivable offense to not have the ball bounce your way here and there. He's someone who's going to have to hit to stay relevant, but blips happen for everyone. 🤷‍♂️ BJ Murray, 3b/1b - 119 wRC+, 23.1 K%, 30.8 BB%, 1 XBH: I'm going to give him a bit of a push here. The approach and the walks were good, but it was very walk-heavy. For someone whose biggest struggle last year was quality of contact, I'm going to be watching that in Double A. Murray is one of two reliable offensive forces in Knoxville right now. Not a bad week, but not a great week, either. 🥶 Sam Armstrong, SP - 5 IP, 2 K, 1 BB, 4 R, 4 ER: Armstrong had some helium entering the year, but so far, he hasn't been as good in Knoxville. The K% has crept up over 20% on the year, but Sunday's start saw only two punchouts. He's not getting ground balls like he used to, so there may be a bit of a philosophy change under the hood to keep an eye out for? 🔥 Will Sanders, SP - 5 K, 0 BB, 0 ER: Sanders doesn't have the top-end stuff that would make you think there's a real dude here, but he keeps succeeding. His K% is over 20%, he's not walking anyone, and he's getting a lot of ground balls. I do think this is the profile of someone who can be a back-end rotational arm, so while the ceiling isn't spectacular, the floor is fairly high. South Bend Cubs, High-A (2-4) Up next: Cedar Rapids Kernels (Minnesota Twins) 🥶 Jefferson Rojas, SS - 47 wRC+, 9.5 K%, 14.3 BB%, 1 2b: Rojas missed most of the spring with a hamstring issue, so him getting off to a cold start is not shocking. The hope is that the Cubs' youngster will heat up shortly. The approach has been good, but contact quality needs to get better. 🔥 Ivan Brethowr, OF - 163 wRC+, 20 K%, 25 BB%, 1 HR: I'm going to keep hyping this kid, because he keeps hitting. The strikeouts are controlled, and when pitchers come inside, he can absolutely turn on pitches. There's a real athleticism behind him, so this isn't a plodding 6-foot-6 guy. I think he'll end up in Knoxville come midseason. 🥶 Cristian Hernandez, INF - 59 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 3.7 BB%, 1 HR, 1 2b: The power was good, but the rest of the week was not. I'd love to see more early Hernandez, rather than the more recent Hernandez. Slumps come and go, so hopefully this is more of a phase than anything. 🔥Jaxon Wiggins, SP - 4 IP, 7 K, 2 BB, 0 ER: Wiggins looks really good right now. He's striking out over a third of the hitters he's faced and the walks are getting fewer and farther between, though they remain his major bugaboo. Six of his 10 walks came in his first 7 innings, while he's only walked four in his last nine. If he can continue to be even adequate at limiting the walks, the number of strikeouts he can create will cancel out the control issues. Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low-A (2-4) Up next: Carlina Mudcats (Milwaukee Brewers) 🤷‍♂️ Nazier Mule, SP - 5 1/3 IP, 7 K, 4 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: The strikeouts are good, the walks... less good. This was shades of last year's Mule, with the new-and-improved 2025 version mixed in. I'd love to keep the strikeouts up with the walks down. I do think he's tracking toward a South Bend promotion this season. 🤷‍♂️ Cole Mathis, 1b/DH - 95 wRC+, 15.4 K%, 7.7 BB%, 1 HR, 2 2b: The power production and the approach was good, but I think he's getting a bit unlucky. The .211 BABIP doesn't match up with how hard he appears to be hitting the ball. I'd like to see him get on a bit of a heater and blast through Myrtle Beach sooner rather than later, however, based on draft pedigree. 🤷‍♂️ JP Wheat, SP - 5 IP, 6 K, 5 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: Wheat's stuff is impressive, but his control is clearly a work in progress. Wheat started off the 2nd, 3rd and 4th innings with walks. His stuff is strong enough that he can work through it, but there will eventually come a time when that is no longer the case. As of now, I'm excited that the stuff is here as he works back from Tommy John surgery, but it will need to improve. 🥶 Alexey Lumpuy, OF - 43 wRC+, 27.8 K%, 11.1 BB%, 1 3b: Every time I catch Myrtle Beach play, Lumpuy stands out, even in his not-great moments. There's a bit of electricity in him. Then, I look at the line and shudder. I really want to see him do a bit better. Hopefully, he can figure it out a bit more. Who do you think had a good week? Who did I forget? Let us know in the comment section below!
  8. The Chicago Cubs farm system finished their last week in April. Moises Ballesteros can't stop hitting, Matt Shaw finally showed an improved swing. But how did the system fair overall? Is it hot? Or was it not? Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images The minor leagues are in full swing, and the Cubs system is off to a pretty fun start. Each team may not be winning their division, but most of the Cubs' best prospects remain strong. In fact, the Cubs are playing well enough at their highest levels that players such as Moises Ballesteros don't even have a realistic path to playing time, unless and until injuries happen. If you're the type who likes to follow the youngsters, this has been a fun year to follow the guys at the top of the lists—as well as dive a little deeper into the sleeper categories. Full System Rating: 🤷‍♂️ Kind of a weird week, all things considered. Shaw walked a lot, but made weak contact. Nazier Mule and JP Wheat struck out a lot of guys, but walked a lot of them, too. For every Ballesteros going off or Ivan Brethowr continuing his good run, you find a Pedro Ramirez, who struggled. It's not a bad week, but not a good week. That's not a complaint; I think the year has been very good to Cubs prospects (despite the records). It's just that there have been some high standards set, and I don't think enough of the system got there this week. Iowa Cubs, Triple-A (2-3) Up next: vs Buffalo Bisons (Toronto Blue Jays) 🔥 Moises Ballesteros, C/1b - 218 wRC+, 8.7 K%, 13 BB%, 2 XBH: I don't want to get too carried away but this is some kind of a heater he's on. He hit .500 this week, is walking more than he's striking out and is just on cruise control. I know that the feeling will be "well bring him up", but I just don't think there's a spot yet. Regardless, he's doing everything and more with the I-Cubs. 🔥 Cade Horton, SP - 4 2/3 IP, 5 K, 1 BB, 0 ER, 0 R: Unlike Ballesteros, I think Horton is getting close to a callup with the Cubs. He's not there yet, but his pitch count is up over 75; he induced 11 whiffs; and he's looking overpowering right now. With Ben Brown struggling to stick the landing in the starting rotation, Horton could be used as a possible replacement as soon as mid-May—if he continues on his current path. 🥶 Matt Shaw, INF - 110 wRC+, 4.3 K%, 13 BB%, 2 XBH: The line may not reflect the rating, but hear me out. Shaw has been walking well and controlling the zone, but his quality of contact has been pretty weak. The good news is that, on Sunday, he had a double and a home run and looked far better. I think he's just a bit off, mechanically. If he can use Sunday as a springboard, he'll be back in Chicago sooner rather than later. 🥶 Christian Franklin, OF - -70 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 11.1 BB%: Ugh... literally the same week I dove deep and wrote glowingly on the outfielder (which you can read here), Franklin goes hitless. Thanks, Christian, really making me look credible! For real, though, it was a bit of a wonky week weather-wise, and these things happen. I won't hold it against them, and my beliefs ring true on him still. 👨‍⚕️ James Triantos, INF: I'm going to add an update on Triantos this week. The Cubs infielder is one of the few off to a rough start to his 2025 year. Sporting a 42 wRC+, he's struggling at the plate. Beyond the brutal time offensively, the last time he played a game was the 17th. Since then, he's been sidelined with a tight leg. Hopefully, he makes it back soon. Knoxville Smokies, Double-A (2-4) Up next: vs Rocket City Trash Pandas (Los Angels Angels) 🥶 Pedro Ramirez, INF - -7 wRC+, 18.5 K%, 3.5 BB%: Not a great week for the diminutive infielder. He's been red-hot to start the season, so it's a forgivable offense to not have the ball bounce your way here and there. He's someone who's going to have to hit to stay relevant, but blips happen for everyone. 🤷‍♂️ BJ Murray, 3b/1b - 119 wRC+, 23.1 K%, 30.8 BB%, 1 XBH: I'm going to give him a bit of a push here. The approach and the walks were good, but it was very walk-heavy. For someone whose biggest struggle last year was quality of contact, I'm going to be watching that in Double A. Murray is one of two reliable offensive forces in Knoxville right now. Not a bad week, but not a great week, either. 🥶 Sam Armstrong, SP - 5 IP, 2 K, 1 BB, 4 R, 4 ER: Armstrong had some helium entering the year, but so far, he hasn't been as good in Knoxville. The K% has crept up over 20% on the year, but Sunday's start saw only two punchouts. He's not getting ground balls like he used to, so there may be a bit of a philosophy change under the hood to keep an eye out for? 🔥 Will Sanders, SP - 5 K, 0 BB, 0 ER: Sanders doesn't have the top-end stuff that would make you think there's a real dude here, but he keeps succeeding. His K% is over 20%, he's not walking anyone, and he's getting a lot of ground balls. I do think this is the profile of someone who can be a back-end rotational arm, so while the ceiling isn't spectacular, the floor is fairly high. South Bend Cubs, High-A (2-4) Up next: Cedar Rapids Kernels (Minnesota Twins) 🥶 Jefferson Rojas, SS - 47 wRC+, 9.5 K%, 14.3 BB%, 1 2b: Rojas missed most of the spring with a hamstring issue, so him getting off to a cold start is not shocking. The hope is that the Cubs' youngster will heat up shortly. The approach has been good, but contact quality needs to get better. 🔥 Ivan Brethowr, OF - 163 wRC+, 20 K%, 25 BB%, 1 HR: I'm going to keep hyping this kid, because he keeps hitting. The strikeouts are controlled, and when pitchers come inside, he can absolutely turn on pitches. There's a real athleticism behind him, so this isn't a plodding 6-foot-6 guy. I think he'll end up in Knoxville come midseason. 🥶 Cristian Hernandez, INF - 59 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 3.7 BB%, 1 HR, 1 2b: The power was good, but the rest of the week was not. I'd love to see more early Hernandez, rather than the more recent Hernandez. Slumps come and go, so hopefully this is more of a phase than anything. 🔥Jaxon Wiggins, SP - 4 IP, 7 K, 2 BB, 0 ER: Wiggins looks really good right now. He's striking out over a third of the hitters he's faced and the walks are getting fewer and farther between, though they remain his major bugaboo. Six of his 10 walks came in his first 7 innings, while he's only walked four in his last nine. If he can continue to be even adequate at limiting the walks, the number of strikeouts he can create will cancel out the control issues. Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low-A (2-4) Up next: Carlina Mudcats (Milwaukee Brewers) 🤷‍♂️ Nazier Mule, SP - 5 1/3 IP, 7 K, 4 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: The strikeouts are good, the walks... less good. This was shades of last year's Mule, with the new-and-improved 2025 version mixed in. I'd love to keep the strikeouts up with the walks down. I do think he's tracking toward a South Bend promotion this season. 🤷‍♂️ Cole Mathis, 1b/DH - 95 wRC+, 15.4 K%, 7.7 BB%, 1 HR, 2 2b: The power production and the approach was good, but I think he's getting a bit unlucky. The .211 BABIP doesn't match up with how hard he appears to be hitting the ball. I'd like to see him get on a bit of a heater and blast through Myrtle Beach sooner rather than later, however, based on draft pedigree. 🤷‍♂️ JP Wheat, SP - 5 IP, 6 K, 5 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: Wheat's stuff is impressive, but his control is clearly a work in progress. Wheat started off the 2nd, 3rd and 4th innings with walks. His stuff is strong enough that he can work through it, but there will eventually come a time when that is no longer the case. As of now, I'm excited that the stuff is here as he works back from Tommy John surgery, but it will need to improve. 🥶 Alexey Lumpuy, OF - 43 wRC+, 27.8 K%, 11.1 BB%, 1 3b: Every time I catch Myrtle Beach play, Lumpuy stands out, even in his not-great moments. There's a bit of electricity in him. Then, I look at the line and shudder. I really want to see him do a bit better. Hopefully, he can figure it out a bit more. Who do you think had a good week? Who did I forget? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article
  9. You all think I'm joking. I'm currently making 10 new alt accounts designed solely to list Franklin as my #4 prospect in the Cubs system to cook the NSBB community fan votes. (Okay not really, but I'd really like to see Kohl do well. Even if he just is a 7th inning guy; I've always been a fan and I refuse to give up every semblance of hope)
  10. I've seen enough. I declare Franklin is back as a top-10 system prospect!
  11. Yeah, I think that's all fair criticism. I can understand every move, but by being patient, the Cubs have put themselves in a bit of a hole in that, they never got that other thing. Whether it was another high leverage arm, or a SP, or a bat...they feel light. Based on the Cubs actions this offseason, they would probably agree. Thankfully, I think the Cubs will likely escape the unforced error. Coming out of April with a .500 record at this point, no matter what, is a huge W. They have a super weak period where they (should - *knock on wood*) beat up on the Rockies, Marlins, Reds and White Sox. If they're still at a 95 win pace at the beginning of June, they really have to make it 30 more days without falling off before they can go use prospect capital to right the wrong. In a weird sense, being one player short has probably given them some extra clarity on guys like Brad Keller (who really looks like a breakout reliever) and Colin Rea (who I wrote about here today, and am cautiously optimistic about the changes). But they'll still need an impact player before year's end.
  12. I think the other side of the coin is: so far none of that has really mattered. They've gotten really good production out of Colin Rea, Carson Kelly, and guys like Brad Keller and Julian Merryweather (last night not withstanding). Ultimately, I think both can be mostly solved with: Matt Shaw getting right Internal improvement. We are already seeing Pressley and Thiebar bounce back as we go. Once we start adding Horton/Brown and some of the other kids to the pen/rotation it should help cleaning out. I don't want to dismiss the Cubs being a player short - I really think they came into the year one player short. I just don't want to pin it all on a single moment. It feels like everything; Luzardo, Scott and Bregman, in a vacuum you go "oh yeah I get it" on why it didn't go down. But the zoom-out doesn't change the fact they needed one more.
  13. DeRosa. He had that big black elbow guard back before those things were widely used.
  14. The A's have a shockingly good offense. I do wonder how Sutter will play when we have a full season of ballpark data (and how that will influence their wRC+) but they've been a top-5 in most of those categories. They're the easiest team we have faced on paper and they don't suck.
  15. The Chicago Cubs' signing of Colin Rea was met with little fanfare. A month later, the former Brewer leads the Cubs in pitching fWAR. Can we look at Shota Imanaga as the blueprint to understand the fixes? Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images For the Chicago Cubs, 2024 was the Year of Shota. Despite missing the playoffs, the enigmatic Shota Imanaga took the city by storm with his electric personality and his excellent pitching. Imanaga, a veteran of the Nippon Baseball League (Japan's top baseball division), was willing to come to the States and overhaul his pitching style. By limiting the offerings and leaning into throwing his fastball more often and under the hands, the lefty has become one of the more trustworthy options the Cubs have. Shota's transformation was a clear-cut success for the franchise last year. Enter stage right, Colin Rea. Rea, a 34-year-old veteran arm, came to the Cubs in the offseason through a one-year contract. The former Brewer has had an interesting career, spending time in the NPB himself in between MLB stops. Not to discredit much of what the right-hander has accomplished since his return Stateside, but over the last few years, his best quality was simply being available. Sporting lackluster Statcast, stuff+ and peripherals, Rea was versatile, capable of shuttling between roles in the rotation and bullpen, and ended up pitching the second most innings for the 2023 and 2024 Brewers (both seasons which ended with division titles for the Wisconsin-based side). He wasn't dominant, but he could always go when the team needed him. In today's day and age of pitcher injuries, this has intrinsic value beyond a Statcast page. Since the first time he took the mound for the Northside, however, it's been clear the Cubs had been under-the-hood tinkering with the arsenal and have helped transform him into a pitcher who goes beyond his durability. Rea has essentially scrapped his signature sinker in favor of a fastball (that has increased in velocity around 1.5 mph). His fastball also sports more arm-side run. He's split his sweeper usage, which he threw 16% of the time in 2024, to feature both the sweeper (now only used 9.8%) and a distinct slider (which he throws a little over 10% of the time). This has currently valued the pitcher to the top of the Cubs' fWAR pitching leaderboard. The blueprint may create a version of a right-handed Shota Imanaga, so looking at him can be a way to understand these changes. Despite throwing a fastball that sits below 92mph, the lefty has not shied away from featuring the pitch 49% of the time. One of the things that helps benefit Shota is his 37-degree arm angle - an awkwardly low arm-slot which helps create deception for his pitch, which has a lot of vertical "rise" (in reality, this is truly a lack of drop). He tends to throw the fastball up-and-over the outside portion of the plate to help create tunneling with his split finger, which he uses on the same edge of the plate. It forces hitters into difficult decisions: Is this a fastball? Or is it a split finger? This is highlighted in the chart below. Returning to their newer two additions, the Chicago Cubs have significantly dropped Colin Rea's arm slot. Rea has seen his arm angle drop nearly five degrees from where it was with the Brewers, now sporting an arm angle of 30 degrees. This is essentially a side-arm delivery. The drop of angle has helped to create extra arm-side run on his fastball, which he now throws nearly 50% of the time. His fastball is also used on the upper third of he plate (though not as high as Shota), particularly on the outer-third of the plate. His sweeper, which he has split into two distinct pitches, is also located on that outer-third. The sweeper creates more horizontal movement, while his slider has more vertical drop. Because all three pitches are placed on the same third of the plate, this also can create a tunnel and force hitters to decide where to swing; is this going to be a fastball up? Is this the sweeper that will break away from me? Or the slider, which will break down? Indecision can create slower decision-making, which can help miss barrels, and help create whiffs - both are things Rea is doing at career highs right now. In my opinion, the fastball has been an important pitch for Rea. Moving away from the sinker gives Rea a few advantages. First, it changes the location of where a hitter's eyes are looking. Rea had a habit of throwing the sinker in the same region where his sweeper went, low and away. Throwing the fastball from a lower arm slot in a higher area creates extra deception and forces a new level for the hitter to look. It's deception. Secondly, it moves the pitch away from the hitter's launch areas. Sinkers can be great in creating a lot of ground balls as hitters swing over the pitch. The issue, however, is that when they float up, they drop directly into the bat path. Launch angle is designed to take advantage of low pitches, meaning sinkers can find barrels. It's not shocking, then, to look at how Rea has managed to miss more barrels by switching to a high-fastball-heavy approach. I think we're seeing a max-effort on this pitch to improve the velocity (Rea has struggled for length on the season, which would help explain that), but it's been useful. If this is starting to feel familiar, it should, because these are many of the same ways that Shota Imanaga attacks hitters. Another place we can see a parallel is how often the two pound the zone. Shota is a strike thrower, throwing around 54.7% of his pitches in the zone this season, according to MLB.com's Statcast. Colin Rea has upped his strike throwing this season, jumping from 51.6% of the time to 54.4% of his pitches in the strike zone. The biggest change is his first-pitch strike%, which has jumped to 77.6%. What this does is give both pitchers an advantage: count leverage. To understand this best, I'd implore you to watch Foolish Baseball's breakdown of the subject. Still, the takeaway from his video is this: throwing strikes matters because the difference between when a hitter is ahead in the count and when they're behind is stark. Throwing strikes matters. Colin Rea and Shota Imanaga take this to heart and use their ability to fill up the zone to give them the leverage they need. If you're getting excited that Colin Rea will represent the Chicago Cubs in the All-Star game like Shota did in 2024, I will pump the brakes a bit before the Rea-hype-train becomes a runaway. Despite the uptick in fastball velocity, Stuff+ hates the pitch as it currently grades out as a pretty-awful-85 on their scale. Now, it could be that the Cubs have found an outlier pitch that Stuff+ cannot fully grasp (there are outliers with all statistics), but it's more likely that the pitch is not designed to be a winner in a vacuum; instead, it plays off his sweeper/slider. This is a drastic departure from Imanaga, as it should be noted that Shota's fastball has been a Stuff+ darling. On its own, it's probably not a great offering. Another issue will be how he handles the uptick in fly balls. As the weather warms up, Rea will likely have to deal with a new issue; he's no longer inducing ground balls at the same rate. This checks out, he's throwing a fastball up, not a sinker down. This means he's going to get bit by the home run more. So far, on the season, he's surrendered none; this won't keep up. It's also likely that teams have not adjusted to the new Rea yet, either. We should expect the league to update the scouting report on the righty moving forward to look for more four-seam fastballs, that he's using a new slider, and that the arm angle has significantly dropped. Part of his early-season success is likely an aspect of surprise; this wasn't expected. As teams see him more and more, they will get more familiar with his new offerings. I'll allow everyone to dream a little, however. While I doubt that Rea will ultimately lead the team in fWAR on the pitching side, I think these changes will create a better starting pitcher. The arm angle has created deception. Unlike the fastball, the slider is getting good grades from Stuff+ models; he has significantly increased his ability to miss barrels and induce swings-and-misses; on the whole, he's a better pitcher than he was before. So while we shouldn't expect Colin Rea to be Shota Imanaga, we can look to Imanaga to understand how the Cubs are improving Colin Rea. There's a concerted effort by the pitcher and the team to maximize his offerings, maximize his motion, and create a viable starting pitcher. So while I wouldn't expect Rea to be an ace, I think he's moving to entrench himself in the Cubs' rotation for the remainder of the 2025 season as a valuable member. View full article
  16. For the Chicago Cubs, 2024 was the Year of Shota. Despite missing the playoffs, the enigmatic Shota Imanaga took the city by storm with his electric personality and his excellent pitching. Imanaga, a veteran of the Nippon Baseball League (Japan's top baseball division), was willing to come to the States and overhaul his pitching style. By limiting the offerings and leaning into throwing his fastball more often and under the hands, the lefty has become one of the more trustworthy options the Cubs have. Shota's transformation was a clear-cut success for the franchise last year. Enter stage right, Colin Rea. Rea, a 34-year-old veteran arm, came to the Cubs in the offseason through a one-year contract. The former Brewer has had an interesting career, spending time in the NPB himself in between MLB stops. Not to discredit much of what the right-hander has accomplished since his return Stateside, but over the last few years, his best quality was simply being available. Sporting lackluster Statcast, stuff+ and peripherals, Rea was versatile, capable of shuttling between roles in the rotation and bullpen, and ended up pitching the second most innings for the 2023 and 2024 Brewers (both seasons which ended with division titles for the Wisconsin-based side). He wasn't dominant, but he could always go when the team needed him. In today's day and age of pitcher injuries, this has intrinsic value beyond a Statcast page. Since the first time he took the mound for the Northside, however, it's been clear the Cubs had been under-the-hood tinkering with the arsenal and have helped transform him into a pitcher who goes beyond his durability. Rea has essentially scrapped his signature sinker in favor of a fastball (that has increased in velocity around 1.5 mph). His fastball also sports more arm-side run. He's split his sweeper usage, which he threw 16% of the time in 2024, to feature both the sweeper (now only used 9.8%) and a distinct slider (which he throws a little over 10% of the time). This has currently valued the pitcher to the top of the Cubs' fWAR pitching leaderboard. The blueprint may create a version of a right-handed Shota Imanaga, so looking at him can be a way to understand these changes. Despite throwing a fastball that sits below 92mph, the lefty has not shied away from featuring the pitch 49% of the time. One of the things that helps benefit Shota is his 37-degree arm angle - an awkwardly low arm-slot which helps create deception for his pitch, which has a lot of vertical "rise" (in reality, this is truly a lack of drop). He tends to throw the fastball up-and-over the outside portion of the plate to help create tunneling with his split finger, which he uses on the same edge of the plate. It forces hitters into difficult decisions: Is this a fastball? Or is it a split finger? This is highlighted in the chart below. Returning to their newer two additions, the Chicago Cubs have significantly dropped Colin Rea's arm slot. Rea has seen his arm angle drop nearly five degrees from where it was with the Brewers, now sporting an arm angle of 30 degrees. This is essentially a side-arm delivery. The drop of angle has helped to create extra arm-side run on his fastball, which he now throws nearly 50% of the time. His fastball is also used on the upper third of he plate (though not as high as Shota), particularly on the outer-third of the plate. His sweeper, which he has split into two distinct pitches, is also located on that outer-third. The sweeper creates more horizontal movement, while his slider has more vertical drop. Because all three pitches are placed on the same third of the plate, this also can create a tunnel and force hitters to decide where to swing; is this going to be a fastball up? Is this the sweeper that will break away from me? Or the slider, which will break down? Indecision can create slower decision-making, which can help miss barrels, and help create whiffs - both are things Rea is doing at career highs right now. In my opinion, the fastball has been an important pitch for Rea. Moving away from the sinker gives Rea a few advantages. First, it changes the location of where a hitter's eyes are looking. Rea had a habit of throwing the sinker in the same region where his sweeper went, low and away. Throwing the fastball from a lower arm slot in a higher area creates extra deception and forces a new level for the hitter to look. It's deception. Secondly, it moves the pitch away from the hitter's launch areas. Sinkers can be great in creating a lot of ground balls as hitters swing over the pitch. The issue, however, is that when they float up, they drop directly into the bat path. Launch angle is designed to take advantage of low pitches, meaning sinkers can find barrels. It's not shocking, then, to look at how Rea has managed to miss more barrels by switching to a high-fastball-heavy approach. I think we're seeing a max-effort on this pitch to improve the velocity (Rea has struggled for length on the season, which would help explain that), but it's been useful. If this is starting to feel familiar, it should, because these are many of the same ways that Shota Imanaga attacks hitters. Another place we can see a parallel is how often the two pound the zone. Shota is a strike thrower, throwing around 54.7% of his pitches in the zone this season, according to MLB.com's Statcast. Colin Rea has upped his strike throwing this season, jumping from 51.6% of the time to 54.4% of his pitches in the strike zone. The biggest change is his first-pitch strike%, which has jumped to 77.6%. What this does is give both pitchers an advantage: count leverage. To understand this best, I'd implore you to watch Foolish Baseball's breakdown of the subject. Still, the takeaway from his video is this: throwing strikes matters because the difference between when a hitter is ahead in the count and when they're behind is stark. Throwing strikes matters. Colin Rea and Shota Imanaga take this to heart and use their ability to fill up the zone to give them the leverage they need. If you're getting excited that Colin Rea will represent the Chicago Cubs in the All-Star game like Shota did in 2024, I will pump the brakes a bit before the Rea-hype-train becomes a runaway. Despite the uptick in fastball velocity, Stuff+ hates the pitch as it currently grades out as a pretty-awful-85 on their scale. Now, it could be that the Cubs have found an outlier pitch that Stuff+ cannot fully grasp (there are outliers with all statistics), but it's more likely that the pitch is not designed to be a winner in a vacuum; instead, it plays off his sweeper/slider. This is a drastic departure from Imanaga, as it should be noted that Shota's fastball has been a Stuff+ darling. On its own, it's probably not a great offering. Another issue will be how he handles the uptick in fly balls. As the weather warms up, Rea will likely have to deal with a new issue; he's no longer inducing ground balls at the same rate. This checks out, he's throwing a fastball up, not a sinker down. This means he's going to get bit by the home run more. So far, on the season, he's surrendered none; this won't keep up. It's also likely that teams have not adjusted to the new Rea yet, either. We should expect the league to update the scouting report on the righty moving forward to look for more four-seam fastballs, that he's using a new slider, and that the arm angle has significantly dropped. Part of his early-season success is likely an aspect of surprise; this wasn't expected. As teams see him more and more, they will get more familiar with his new offerings. I'll allow everyone to dream a little, however. While I doubt that Rea will ultimately lead the team in fWAR on the pitching side, I think these changes will create a better starting pitcher. The arm angle has created deception. Unlike the fastball, the slider is getting good grades from Stuff+ models; he has significantly increased his ability to miss barrels and induce swings-and-misses; on the whole, he's a better pitcher than he was before. So while we shouldn't expect Colin Rea to be Shota Imanaga, we can look to Imanaga to understand how the Cubs are improving Colin Rea. There's a concerted effort by the pitcher and the team to maximize his offerings, maximize his motion, and create a viable starting pitcher. So while I wouldn't expect Rea to be an ace, I think he's moving to entrench himself in the Cubs' rotation for the remainder of the 2025 season as a valuable member.
  17. He probably didn't, but I didnt consider him in this process because he was a special case. That comment was more along the lines of this idea that the Cubs dont have some perfect Shaw fallback that is better than Berti. However, when it comes to Alex, it isnt as if the Cubs offered some Mickey Mouse contract like people act like as the reason he is in Boston. The "the Cubs didnt offer a serious deal" narrative I keep reading is not grounded in what's out there. As reported by Matt, the Cubs offer was essentially the same AAV as the Red Sox. Boston used deferred money to get there, so the dollar amount sounds larger, but real-world-cash it is not leagues better. He wanted opt outs every year. The Cubs wanted him for *more* than just one year, their opt out was after two years. They offered him over $30m AAV. I believe it's important to remember, one of the big fears *this own board had* was signing Bregman for one year and losing him. If the frustration is that the team is one-player-short, I agree. The Cubs need to get things over the line. They could go a bit further at times. I dont want to make it sound like I'm carrying the FO's water here, only adding context. Two things can be true at the same time: the Cubs offered a legitimate deal to Bregman and the Cubs ended the offseason with one too many holes. Bregman was offered a real contract that was more than capable of getting him signed. Sucks it didn't happen, thats a thing that happens however. It's also a bit of a push-pull outcome by waiting the market out. The reaosn the Cubs had a chance is because they were patient, but missing at that stage leaves you with less fall back options. When the Cubs do go further, for example, Kyle Tucker, people panic about losing their Cam Smith-s. This isnt at you in particular, but for many, it seems as though they are damned if they do, damned if they don't. Had they offered Bregman 6/$30m-aav and signed him, there is a contingency of people who would have panicked that the Cubs wouldn't even try to extend Tucker now, or that it was too long; I'm fully convinced it would be something. Going back to the original point, outside of Bregman, the Cubs were always going to be in a situation where it was Matt Shaw and a journeyman. It could have been Shaw and Moncada (who has been bad), or Shaw and Rojas (who is hurt), but it was going to be something like this. The hope was Shaw was going to hit the ground running, but mechanically he got thrown off. Thankfully for the Cubs offense hasn't been an issue. They should be fine until he gets his sea-legs as long as the Cubs can continue to play good baseball.
  18. I don't think he needs to be here today. But if he gets mechanically right over two weeks, then he should be up again. There's no reason at that point to keep him down if he's cruising and looking right. The reason PCA and Busch and Amaya have all blossomed is because we stuck through some bumps. Shaw will have bumps. We will need to stick through them.
  19. That's not really true. What you saw was an out-of-whack hitter who's mechanics were all horsefeathered up. Looking at his Triple-A data, it shows that pretty heavily. We can see that because: Matt Shaw is chasing less, making more contact and swinging almost exclusevely at strikes in Triple-A. This is in comparison to his Triple-A run last year. He's struck out once in 27 PAs, for example. That's someone who has returned from the MLB, is seeing lesser pitching, and it's not an issue for him. His pitch recognition is better than it had been. Matt Shaw, despite the above, has made consistently weak contact until today. He's hitting a lot of things on the ground despite having a positive launch angle on the swing. That's someone who's mechanically off, not someone who's incapable. He hit a home run and a double today in which I thought he looked much better. I believe his bottom half became unhitched from the top - he wasn't on time. Should we expect a stud hitter right off the bat? No. But I also think once he gets the mechanics back in order, he'll be much better and what you saw was not what Shaw will be even in the interim.
  20. What legit 3b was going to want to sign with a team who wanted to give the spot to Shaw? Let's be realistic. The Cubs brought in Berti who is exactly the level of player who was going to come in to play caddy to a prospect like Shaw.
  21. Romano has been horrendous this year. So of course he'll cruise.
  22. Did Brujan not recognize it was Turner? I'm not sure he'd have gotten him anyways but that pat to the glove may have been the difference.
  23. Get out of here with only one run and you're still in a decent spot.
  24. Happ catch....Happ walkoff home run? I'll speak it into existence.
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