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Jason Ross
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Everything posted by Jason Ross
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And yet he's better than Michael Busch against LHP.
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SEE YA!
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I'd like to see Nico moving on this pitch.
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Aaron Ashby has gone 3+ innings against the Chicago Cubs twice this year. There is a decent likelihood he remains in the game the next time the spot rolls around. And just because Turner got out doesn't make it a waste. Michael Busch would have gotten out far more likely and it's about giving yourself the best chance. Stop being obtuse.
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Eyyyy Nico.
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Both the Cubs and the Marlins had issues with the medicals. It wasn't as simple as "the Cubs backed out". Luzardo's medicals at the time were shaky. Owen Caissie was coming off a core injury. The Marlins reportedly had issues with his medicals. Strangely enough, both have raised their value. Luzardo had a career year and Caisse considerably improved his contact rate.
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Then Pat Murphy is an idiot. Ashby is a LHP and Quintana has a 5.00 xFIP against RHH. The way you guarantee a lineup full of RHH is to start a LHP. That's the backwards way to use an opener. If they go that way, the Brewers have far more issues than we realized.
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So you'd turn down a guaranteed spot to use Turner in a tie game game for a hypothetical situation later? The reality is there is no guarantee Busch will come up against a LHP late in the game in an important spot. But we do know Turner will hit in a tie game by leading off. A bird in the hand...
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Still has an 81 on the season. I wouldn't read much into 28 PA's. No stat stabilizes within that sample size and with the full season and swing change it's likely the 81 is closer to the truth than anything.
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He actually wasn't terrible against LHP in the minors. But his slugging disappeared. He got on base a lot. That said, Busch changed his swing this year. He's essentially geared it to hitting RHP, which is fine. I don't think he was ever going to be a good hitting 1b against LHP - so they said "horsefeathers it, just crush RHP and well find someone to play against lefties". Meaning I'm not sure his Triple-A splits matter much any more, either.
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Probably will have to if they go to Priester in the 2nd. But I doubt he sees many of them. We probably don't mention this often enough but Busch was the 6th best hitter against RHP in baseball this year.
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Because Busch is really bad against LHP and that's almost assuredly the reason they are hiding Priester with Ashby. Even if it doesn't work out, this is why you have Turner to begin with. He is better against lefties so you give yourself the best chance. Just because Turner isn't a star doesn't mean you just roll over and say the less good hitter should just go do it anyways.
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I know! Figured it was the such. Love your contributions! I just didn't want you to think I was defending Hoyer here. I think the place I'm most critical on him in his inability to understand the right time to pay added value on a player, either trade or via FA. I almost think he understands value too much. His worst deal is like...Trey Manicini. But he avoids bad deals but being a a bit unable to make the big ones, too, at times
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I still think the price for Cabrera was do-able. I've seen some suggestions from Zumach that it was in a price range that was headlined by Caissie and didn't involve a Shaw or Horton, and frankly, even as the high-man on the Caissie-totem pole would have paid that. But even beyond that, they needed one more Kittredge level arm or better and getting Rogers and Soroka just was never enough. So regardless, I still think the Cubs came up an arm too short. The bullpen is good, but shy one really good guy from being a deathpen, and the rotation is clearly on short right now, especially with the Horton injury.
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The Toronto Blue Jays were not guaranteed to make the playoffs. So while he's going to get to an 8th start, at the time, he wasn't even ready to make an MLB debut. The Tigers and Mets have proven what nonesense can happen down the stretch - there was no guarantee an 8th start was ever coming. I didn't really undersell him to Wiggins. First, I said he was the closest 1:1 comp - he is. The Cubs don't have another top-100 pitcher in the system. Stephan and Wiggins were both 2nd round selections out of the SEC. And Wiggins is ranked 66th on FG's list to Stephans 73rd. I think that's a pretty close! I also said I think Wiggins is a better prospect even stating if you thought Stephan was the 125th best prospect that the price was significant. The inclusion of Wiggins was to give a relatable point of reference. I expect most people don't follow the Blue Jays system, but likely, have a cursory knowledge of the Cubs'. You're really warping my point. My point was only about the price paid for Bieber. The post said "Toronto gave up no much for him". There wasn't another pitcher on the FG top-100 who was moved. That is simply inaccurate. There was no implications for the Cubs based on my post. I wasn't defending Hoyer. Only disagreeing with a line that suggested the Blue Jay got a cheap price on Bieber - it was not a cheap price.
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Listen, I wrote a whole article on bitching about the Cubs not getting a SP at the deadline; that isn't me defending Jed Hoyer. But saying that Toronto didn't pay a very high price for Bieber is also not appropriate. So I think I'd say two things are going on here: 1. I think the Cubs should have probably paid for something more - be it a SP, or another impact RP like David Bednar. 2. Toronto paid a lot for Shane Bieber. I was one of the people here suggesting they trade for Sandy Alcantara (who's been excellent) and Edward Cabrera (who's been excellent). So I don't want to let him off the hook. And that post you quotes wasn't about Jed at all. Only that, I don't think it's fair to undersell the price the Blue Jays paid. Khal Stephan was a good prospect given up for Shane Bieber. Which is cool! Sometimes you pay up.
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Cubs-Brewers Game One Thread, By The Numbers
Jason Ross replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
I don't think that's the best bet, though. I think we can both agree that whatever injury Soroka had was not one that's going to destroy him; while shoulder strains are not great, they're pretty normal stuff pitchers handle. Long term, they can suggest arm issues, but while it probably isn't as benign as a hangnail or a blister, this isn't a UCL issue. Considering the velocity is back, structurally and health wise, we should assume he's fine for the playoffs. So, then we have to ask "why did he struggle post injury?" and I think rust and a bit of a pitching philosophy change is occurring. Look at where his fastball is landing now compared to before. The first is leading up to the TDL: And now since: We can see there is something different happening here. Whether or not that's because it's a mechanical thing or a new process is not really able to be seen there. But we can see things are very different right now. Regardless, I think the Cubs think there's a bit more here than you do. And considering that I don't think Assad and Civale have a lot of separation, Soroka probably offers a different option when things are right.
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Toronto gave up a prospect who was on Fangraph's top-100 mid-season list and currently ranked 73rd on their list. While I think Jaxon Wiggins is a better prospect than Khal Stephan, the pitcher that went back to Cleveland in that deal, he's also probably the closest 1:1 comp in our system. Pitching prospects are always a little all over the place, and Eric Logenhagen at FG seems to be among the high-water-marks for their feelings on Stephan, but I would also caution you into saying they got him for not too much. Even if you think he's a little high, and you've got him more in the 125 range, the Blue Jays gave up a top-125 prospect for a pitcher who hadn't even made an appearance past A-ball on the season and who they got 7 regular season starts of. In terms of value, the Jays/Guardians swap was likely among the largest prices paid.
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Cubs-Brewers Game One Thread, By The Numbers
Jason Ross replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
I don't disagree that a short hook for anyone in the playoffs is important. But I also think the pitcher that Soroka can be when he's right is likely better than what Assad can bring in the playoffs. But I think a lot of the discussion internally with the Cubs was "Do we really need two Javier Assad's?" because the overlap between he and Aaron Civale is real. They are similar softer tossing RHP who kitchen sink their way through things with low whiff stuff. Soroka overs a fastball at 95mph and a slurve that can really attack RHH and induce K's when he's right. In the end, they have to make a choice on what they think gives them the best shot. And I know Soroka got touched up the last game, but he also shut down the Padres the other night when called on. For his sake and the Cubs sake I hope it's better next time. -
But what proof do we have that the reason that the Cubs fell into second place because of that? First, his decision to play or not play his bench has nothing to do with the Brewers going on a pretty historic run of baseball. The Brewers went nuclear and won a ton of baseball games. That's on Milwaukee, not Counsell. Beyond that, the Cubs have beaten any of their projection model outcomes pre-season. Most had them in the mid 80-s to 90(ish) range, but 92 wins is at the very top of what was expected. I know there is an argument that the Cubs got better than expected outcomes from some players who took leaps, but they also lost their best SP right off the bat and Tucker got hurt and missed time too, so I think it balances out. Most of the season, especially in July, the Cubs' bench was Justin Turner (unplayable against RHP), Reese McGuire, Jon Berti and Vidal Brujan. Do we think the Cubs would have won more games if they started multiple replacement level players? If we're blaming anyone there, that seems like a Hoyer thing first (though most teams run a pretty garbage bench, to be fair) before a Counsell thing. Into August, after they picked up Castro, the Cubs played the bench much more. I just don't see any thing for Craig Counsell to have to apologize or take blame for that.
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Any time! I also explained up in a post about 2 or 3 above where his issues are with the cutter right now against LHH which should also explain why he's sucked against them recently.
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I actually think he'll outpitch his metrics somewhat often with his current build. I think xFIP is a great datapoint, but there is enough information on how to outpitch your xFIP and it's generally by throwing strikes, getting ahead, and getting a ton of ground balls. Priester does all of these things. Where I think he should struggle against LHH specifically is how his pitch mix doesn't really change for LHH the way it should. Sliders and sinkers are a no-no for attacking opposite handed hitters and he just keeps tossing them. So I'm not shocked that he is.
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Priester seems to have changed his pitch mix around August, using his cutter far more and it has not been a good pitch for him. About a 13% increase recently. It's been his worst pitch of the year and has the highest batted ball data against it. Based on heat maps, it's all over the middle of the plate. You'd usually use a cutter against LHH (he does use it around the same % against RHH) all I can do is guess guess because I can't super sort for pitch% per month per hitter, my guess is the cutter is the culprit. His numbers in September against LHH are horrible and it coincides with the cutter% increase. EDIT: It's the cutter. Look at how much he's lost the pitch location: The top is his cutter location against LHH before July and then after. He was getting the cutter in on hitters hands prior. Kind of how you'd expect him to attack LHH with the pitch. Here is where here's leaving it since: He's stopped getting the ball in on hands. He's getting all the plate now, so it's sliding right into the zone. Here is where hitters were making contact before August on the cutter: And compare to where hitters are getting it now:
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Cubs-Brewers Game One Thread, By The Numbers
Jason Ross replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
The Cubs scored the 5th most runs on the season but around here, you'd believe they were a below average offensive team. The point isn't who scored more runs on the year, but that if you think the Cubs struggled up to the end of the year, the Brewers struggled more. If you think the Cubs offense is trash, the Brewers scored 13 more runs on the year, or by average, .08 more runs per game, what does that make them?. If you think the Cubs have to wake up and battle it out offensively, than data suggests their ability to do that. But I don't find either team to be offensive juggernauts and neither team are rolling out a pitcher without obvious flaws tonight. Both teams are in about the same boat.
