Jason Ross

Image courtesy of © Anne-Marie Caruso/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK Our North Side Baseball users have spoken! In our most recent run of fan voting, there has been a bit of reshuffling in our consensus Cubs top-20 list. To see the entire list, check out the results of our fan voting. Many of our users provided small write-ups for each prospect. If you're so inclined, I have my list and quick write-up detailing how I see the system currently. If you missed out on this round, that's okay; create a new account and pay attention when we once again update our consensus list this summer. There was some change at the top, with Cade Horton supplanting Matt Shaw, and some other minor movers in the list. The biggest change in our new round of voting, we welcome four new members in our top-20: first baseman Cole Mathis at #11, outfielders Christian Franklin and Ivan Brethowr, #13 and #15 respectively, and pitcher Nazier Mule at the #16 spot. Each is an interesting prospect and offers major league upside. There's no better way to welcome each prospect than a quick, "get to know you" bit, so let's officially welcome all four: #11 Cole Mathis, 1B/DH, Myrtle Beach Pelicans .211/.317/.411 23.1 K%, 11.5 BB%, 112 wRC+, 7 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR Cole Mathis was drafted out of the College of Charleston and was a second-round selection in the 2024 Amateur Draft. He was heralded for his strong batted ball data, boasting some of the better exit velocities and contact rates in the draft. One of the other big positives is that he was a standout in the Cape Cod Wood Bat Summer League, a sign that he could make the jump in competition more seamlessly. Not everything was perfect, however, as he did have a few flags. The first was that coming out of the College of Charleston meant that Mathis did not face the strongest of competition on a daily basis. This is partially why his Cape performance matters; the best college prospects tend to end up there yearly, so this was mitigated. The other issue was that Mathis, a two-way player, would require Tommy John surgery to repair his elbow from his time on the mound. While TJS is less devastating for a position player, it would slow his progress down at the start. So far, Mathis has gotten off to a somewhat tepid start. Myrtle Beach is a particularly strong pitching environment, so typically, a 112 wRC+ would be pretty good for a first-year-drafted player. Mathis, however, was tabbed as a quick mover and an advanced bat. It's fair to point to the injury and that the hitter will be fine as the weather warms up. I'm not overly concerned, but Mathis would tear through Low-A in a perfect world. Instead, it looks like it'll take a few months instead of a few weeks. That's okay! The upside here is still an MLB hitter with a strong feel for the strike zone and 25+ home run power. # 13 Christian Franklin, OF, Iowa Cubs .194/.325/.316 20.5 K%, 14.5 BB%, 75 wRC+, 6 2B, 2 HR The current line on Christian Franklin isn't pretty, but a lot of this is due to a recent cold spell in which, over his last 44 plate appearances, Franklin has a .091 batting average, a .121 BABIP, and a wRC+ in the negatives. Through his first 54 PAs, however, the outfielder looked like a Statcast darling, with a 141 wRC+ and much-improved exit velocity. It even prompted me to write a full article detailing the improvements. I think this is just a bad run of games, as Franklin has been successful everywhere he's played prior. Christian Franklin was a third-round selection back in 2021 out of Arkansas. So far, with the Cubs, he's turned in yeoman work, overshadowed mainly by Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara in the outfield. Still, his results have always been there, as he's most recently posted a 134 wRC+ with the Cubs' Double-A affiliate just last year. He's a strong enough defender to play across the outfield, making his numbers a bit more impressive due to his versatility. One of Franklin's hallmarks is his excellent approach. While he's not entirely immune to strikeouts, such as Nico Hoerner, he has sat around the 20% strikeout-rate territory for much of his career, which is quite good! The knocks on him have always been "does he hit the ball far enough?" and "can he hit the ball in the air often enough?". The hope is that with some recent mechanical changes, the exit velocity and the power he showed off early will re-appear despite the two-plus bad weeks. Franklin will probably play Major League Baseball, but whether he's an organizational depth player, a fourth 4th-outfielder, or a low-end starter will likely depend on the power output and the amount of ground balls he hits. #15 Ivan Brethowr, OF, South Bend Cubs .293/.453/.439 25.5 K%, 17.9 BB%, 159 wRC+, 3 2B, 3 HR Ivan Brethowr has come a long way since he was drafted in the seventh round last summer. Brethowr was a star outfielder at UC Santa Barbara, using his imposing 6"6 frame to hit the lights out of baseballs. There was a problem, however; his swing was just not good. Equal parts long and overly contrived, the concern with the towering giant was whether or not he would ever make enough contact to get to the power. In his first taste of professional baseball, the answer was: he was not, as he struck out 26 times in 95 plate appearances while playing at Low-A. Entering the year, Brethowr showed improved mechanics, overhauling his stance. I brought up his mechanical improvements back in February in a game he played during Spring Training, and he's continued to look very good at the plate. The strikeouts remain in check, the walk rate is through the roof, and he's chipping in seven stolen bases to boot. There's still a bit to go, however. Despite the size, the exit velocities have been only "alright," he's not getting to the power as often as you'd like. You're hoping that he's still learning a new stance and how to make the best of it, and as he's already shown a quick ability to adapt and accept coaching, it's easy to dream of the outcomes. It's probably not an Aaron Judge ceiling, but we're all winners if the Cubs get anything close to an MLB player out of a seventh-round pick. #16, Nazier Mule, SP, Myrtle Beach Pelicans 2.25 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 4.19 xFIP, 26.2 K%, 11.9 BB% Nazier Mule was another more recent draft pick, selected in the fourth round of the 2022 draft. Initially, like Cole Mathis, Mule was a two-way player. The path to the Show for Nazier always seemed like it would be on the mound, though, there was some early rumbling that the Cubs would allow Mule to hit some. This never materialized. Sadly for Mule and the Cubs, there would be one more thing he and Mathis had in common: early-Cubs-career Tommy John surgery. He would miss the entirety of 2023. The electric pitcher would work back through the 2024 season to middling results. The stuff looked strong, but Mule had less-than-ideal control, walking about as many people as he struck out. One of the biggest concerns was that while Mule had great stuff, he could not create a swing-and-miss. Things have gotten much better for the righty this year, as he's seen his walk rate drop and his K-rate jump. From an "eye-test" perspective, he also looks much more composed and in control on the mound. Some hoped that Mule could pull a Tink Hence. Hence, a young pitching prospect with the Cardinals had a similar build and, in his second year, took a jump as a pitching prospect. Mule might not be as good as Hence, who's arguably the Cardinal's best prospect currently, but has enough juice to have an MLB starter upside with some back-end-bullpen capabilities if the control never gets fully better. He's a fun, live arm. Which of these four prospects are you most excited about? Have you been following them yourselves? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

Yes. Very much. As well, I think we look at slumps and hot streaks a bit backwards. When teams aren't scoring it feels like it will last forever. But the Cubs have many good hitters. I believe every day its more likely that Tucker, Suzuki, Busch and company will be more like the guys they should be than the guys slumping. Maybe they will continue slumping tomorrow! Bummer if it is. But Id take this offense most days.

That feels exteme. Brad Keller has been excellent. Cade Horton is a top-flight pitching prospect. If neither explodes, Id expect those two to combine for 5 or 6 innings tomorrow. That shouldn't signal a guaranteed loss. Im not sure if they're going to win, but it isnt like the Cubs are throwing, like, the corpse of Dallas Kuechel tomorrow. I'll put it this way: if Cade Horton started and threw three, and then Keller followed him and threw two...would you expect it to be a guaranteed loss? I wouldn't. Much like swapping their order shouldn't. I *do* think we are wading into "getting too cute" territory; but I also dont think its a guaranteed loss.

They didn't call Horton up to not start - they could have called up a bunch of others guys. Feels like they'd rather him not see the Mets as a first go as a starter. I'll say this feels a hair too cute, but ultimately is probably nothing worth getting upset over long term.

In his defense, MLB.com's baseball savant had both the pitch to Nicky Lopez and Ian Happ as strikes. Particularly north/south, Marquee's on-air k-zone tends to be smaller than Savants. With that said, I dont believe Savant takes into account height into their live-zone. Whether Marquee does or doesn't, Im unsure.

BA in their most recent suggested he might outgrow 3b and go to a corner, PL Live has him as this "Defensively, Neyens has made strides at third base. He shows soft hands, a strong arm, and relaxed, confident actions. That said, some scouts remain concerned about his footwork, which can get heavy at times, potentially pushing him to a corner outfield role long term. Still, he’s shown enough to suggest he has a shot to stick at third with continued improvement." And fringy athleticism. When I see scouts worried about athleticism and talking corner OF, that can sometimes manifest into "1b". Think this: how many people have been convinced that Owen Caissie, with a 55 grade arm but fringy athleticism needs to move off of RF to 1b? Neyens is already 6"4, 205lbs. I think there's going to be teams who see 1b risk. If you think he's a 3b, I'd say he's a top-15 type. If you think he's a corner, he's a top-30. If you're worried he's a real 1b type, he's probably outside of that. I really like the bat, but it'll come down to the internals and how you scout the defense. I can say from a personal standpoint, I'd be for a Neyens pick. Just not convinced the Cubs' profile suggests they'd be likely to go that route.

Ugh. That's 20 for me, then. I hate it.

Looks interesting! Love the bat. Defensively have read enough that suggests he could end up at 1b that I just don't think the Cubs do it. Since Kantrovitz has taken over, college has been prioritized over prep and Mathis is probably the first "likely 1b" profile they've taken in the first handful of rounds for a while. A prep bat with a decent likelihood of ending up at 1b feels like a reach for their draft profile. Ultimately, think the Cubs will pass but if you think he's got a real shot at 3b, then he's a worthwhile investment in the first round.

Yes. Probably. Id say a non-zero chance he makes it to Chicago-proper this year in a BP role. I would not bet on it, it's more likely not than to happen, but there's a path where injuries + Wiggins being that good that created a situation in which he sees some September innings out of the pen. But Id expect him in Knoxville sooner rather than later at this point.

He was unreal tonight.

Finishes the 7th! Struck out 2 more. Hit 97 and 96. 7IP, 7K, 0BB, 1ER Announcers thought it was the first SB Cub to go 7 since Brandon Little in 2018.

Wiggins (so far): 6IP, 5 K, 0 BB, 1 ER (70 pitches) Hes back out for a 7th(!!)

Good to see Rodriguez back! I was excited about him pre-season.

Honestly, had to look it up once you mentioned Cruz! I kind of forget Cruz and how great of a prospect he was. I knew it was in that "early 00's" but couldn't remember if he beat Mark by a year, or was a year after. 25 years ago was a long time ago. Mark Prior is really the first "prospect" I remembered following. Before that it was more like these guys appeared as if an apparition, out of thin air. Prior was kind of the first guy I knew of draft to first game.

Cruz made his debut in 2001. Mark Prior his debut in 2002. So I would give the nod to Prior as the "most recent" in this tier of upside. We had some cool prospects make some debuts, such as Hendricks but I think this is the most excited I've been to see a starting pitching get a shot since Prior. Also. This.

Tommy Birch, Iowa Cubs beat writer also confirming: Cade Horton will be called up

I think if the Cubs went HS prep bat, Steele Hall feels like he's a guy the Cubs would like. He's incredibly athletic, has strong bat to ball skills, capable at SS and young for the draft year, as he reclassified to 2025. The Cubs have been connected to similar types the last few drafts, and while they didn't ultimately go that route, Hall is getting buzz in the late teens and early 20's round. Of all the prep guys, he feels like he fits a mold the Cubs would go with.

Honestly, think you're missing the forest for the trees a bit and trying to look for things too deep. Why is Long's z-swing that low? Could be simply he's too advanced for this pitching and he's seeing it well, choosing to swing at his pitch so confidently that he's fine not-swinging at other pitches. The take away I would have, as I said before is: Long is seeing the ball really well and he's doing great. I don't think it really has to be much deeper. The broad overview of that data, I think, should be a clear "he's really hitting the stitches off the baseball at Iowa and doing things very well". There's not much concern there as is. We can always find slight imperfections, but I don't think there's much there to worry about as is. (with the pull rate I've clicked through most of the good hitters I can think of on TJ's page and I really cannot find someone over the 50% for pull rate. Again, I could be just finding the wrong ones, but I think there's something funky there. But I'm not a data analyst and I don't know how his app collects data. This includes Roman Anthony, Coby Mayo, Carson Williams, Dalton Rushing, Samuel Bassalo and Kyle Teel. EDIT: found TWO - Emmanuel Rodriguez and Marcelo Mayer, both are at the very top end of the percentile. I've yet to find someone between 50-95%. So I guess end result, regardless of how the data is collected, I really don't think it's a great indicator of who we should like as prospects - those are all good prospects) I wouldn't say he's a heavy ground ball hitter, he's just hitting a few too many. Ideally, you'd like his ground ball rate under 40%. As stated, his LA is 11 right now. Ideally, you'd like that up a few degrees, say, 15 or so. It's small swing tweaks. On his splits; this year the splits aren't great, but it's super small sample as you said. He hit lefties well last year. For him to be a good platoon guy with Busch he doesn't need to hit lefties better than righties. He needs to hit lefties better than Busch. He hit LHP pretty well last year. Also, part of being a good platoon hitter is simply being a RHH. We have to remember that pitchers are half of the equation. If a pitcher has a pitch mix that is just better against LHH. by proxy of being a RHH he's going to have a leg up.

The LA is an issue. But I think we have to accept something about Shaw and other high contact hitters: EV will always be a little wonky. Players who make a lot of contact hit some balls hard and also have the ability to hit some balls weakly (that hitters with worse contact ability just won't touch). He'll pick up some hits on low EV's and I don't think it's necessarily an indication that something is bad. For example, his first PA yesterday. 1-2 pitch, gets a pretty decent splitter low, and off the plate. Shaw reaches and pokes a ball to shortstop. It's a 75 mph ground out. EV? Not good. But I think guys without Shaw's contact ability swing over that and they're struck out. Shaw will rack up plays like that. He'll also poke a few of those into center or a hole and get some hits. It's the push and pull of the hit tool. Back to the LA - yeah that's funky. He's usually a pretty good LA guy. So while I think the EV is a bit of a red herring at times for Shaw the LA is weird. Definitely something still not exactly there. His second PA is probably a good example of what I am concerned about. Shaw is in a 2-1 count. Gets a mid-slightly-out sinker. 88mph. But it's a hittable and good pitch. Shaw hits a one hopper to shortstop. His front side is diving into the ball. Front shoulder drops. He should hit that ball in the air. It's a sinker that isn't below the zone so it's falling into your bat path.

Every team will drop series. The Cubs will eventually lose 5 games in a row at some point. The bats will go cold for a few weeks. A good reminder is this: when things are going really well, it's never as good as it seems at the top. When things are going really well, you're almost assuredly getting positive variance, and positive luck. Balls that shouldn't drop are, and balls that should for the other team don't. The same reigns true for when things aren't great. When the Cubs get swept against a team they shouldn't, or they lose five of seven in a week, balls that should drop won't be. The umpires will make calls that go against us. Things are never as bad as they feel when you're at the lowest. This is what happens over a 162 game year. Weird things happen. As hard as it can be, I just try to remain balanced. I think the Cubs are a pretty good team. Imperfect? Sure. But every team is imperfect. Even the Dodgers.

Ah good catch! His last start came during a time where I couldn't put my eye to the game so that makes sense. Checked the cast and noticed the oddball pitch mix from hin.

Yeah very good start today from Wicks. 13 whiffs in five innings is really solid. Big thing that stands out is the pitch mix. Last game, where he got beat up, he basically halved his change usage for the curveball. Today, more normal mixage - heavy fastball/change (change picked up four of the whiffs). more sparing curveball usage. Mixed in the curve and the sweeper, though. 6 curve, 5 sweeper. Fastball was just shy of 95 on his max, averaged 93mph.

I wouldn't read MiLB data like we read MLB data consistently. For example, reading his BABIP as a negative wouldn't be how I see that. Sure, he's not going to carry that BABIP in the MLB; but he's in the literal 100% for hard hit, LA-sweet spot, while also in the 97th xwOBA and so on and so forth. Yeah, he's hitting the hell out of the baseball. He's not going to be a 100th percentile in the MLB for hard hit, either. The way I'd read that instead is "so far, this dude is crushing Triple-A pitching". It's a good sign that he's better than what he's seeing. So it's not a bad thing...opposite. It's a good thing. Hitters who have "figured out a level" tend to do that stuff - have super high BABIP's and the like. Mostly because they're hitting the baseball super hard, finding barrels, hitting sweet spots, etc. They kind of all go hand-in-hand. We see that stuff far less at the MLB level because it's just that much harder to solve the riddle. Like, Aaron Judge has literally a .473 BABIP at the MLB level right now. He's kind of solved the riddle, you know? Not saying Long is Judge, just saying "guys who are really good for their level, yeah, they do that". When it comes to TJ Stats and PulL% I've noticed that most hitters tend to be low. I'm not sure if that's a function of his statistical gathering algorithm or what. Like, for example, Roman Anthony is crushing baseballs and he's in the 30 percentile for pull rate and 11th percentile for pulled flyballs. I really can't remember looking at many players and those numbers being high. Maybe it's just that I keep finding guys who don't pull, but I think there's something maybe wonky on how those display. Anthony is a killer prospect. I think they get funky. But that's a hunch. For Long, he's over 40% of the time hitting ground balls and he's LA sits around 11. I think the best version of Long ups that a bit and hits more things in the air. He hits the ball super hard, he'd hit more HR's. But those are tweaks and fixes that can occur. That said, I think there's a world where a 20 HR Jonathon Long is a good and productive MLB hitter. He might not be a star, but he'd be a good 1b or a DH in that mold if everything else stuck.