Jason Ross

I've seen enough. I declare Franklin is back as a top-10 system prospect!

Yeah, I think that's all fair criticism. I can understand every move, but by being patient, the Cubs have put themselves in a bit of a hole in that, they never got that other thing. Whether it was another high leverage arm, or a SP, or a bat...they feel light. Based on the Cubs actions this offseason, they would probably agree. Thankfully, I think the Cubs will likely escape the unforced error. Coming out of April with a .500 record at this point, no matter what, is a huge W. They have a super weak period where they (should - *knock on wood*) beat up on the Rockies, Marlins, Reds and White Sox. If they're still at a 95 win pace at the beginning of June, they really have to make it 30 more days without falling off before they can go use prospect capital to right the wrong. In a weird sense, being one player short has probably given them some extra clarity on guys like Brad Keller (who really looks like a breakout reliever) and Colin Rea (who I wrote about here today, and am cautiously optimistic about the changes). But they'll still need an impact player before year's end.

I think the other side of the coin is: so far none of that has really mattered. They've gotten really good production out of Colin Rea, Carson Kelly, and guys like Brad Keller and Julian Merryweather (last night not withstanding). Ultimately, I think both can be mostly solved with: Matt Shaw getting right Internal improvement. We are already seeing Pressley and Thiebar bounce back as we go. Once we start adding Horton/Brown and some of the other kids to the pen/rotation it should help cleaning out. I don't want to dismiss the Cubs being a player short - I really think they came into the year one player short. I just don't want to pin it all on a single moment. It feels like everything; Luzardo, Scott and Bregman, in a vacuum you go "oh yeah I get it" on why it didn't go down. But the zoom-out doesn't change the fact they needed one more.

DeRosa. He had that big black elbow guard back before those things were widely used.

The A's have a shockingly good offense. I do wonder how Sutter will play when we have a full season of ballpark data (and how that will influence their wRC+) but they've been a top-5 in most of those categories. They're the easiest team we have faced on paper and they don't suck.

The Chicago Cubs' signing of Colin Rea was met with little fanfare. A month later, the former Brewer leads the Cubs in pitching fWAR. Can we look at Shota Imanaga as the blueprint to understand the fixes? Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images For the Chicago Cubs, 2024 was the Year of Shota. Despite missing the playoffs, the enigmatic Shota Imanaga took the city by storm with his electric personality and his excellent pitching. Imanaga, a veteran of the Nippon Baseball League (Japan's top baseball division), was willing to come to the States and overhaul his pitching style. By limiting the offerings and leaning into throwing his fastball more often and under the hands, the lefty has become one of the more trustworthy options the Cubs have. Shota's transformation was a clear-cut success for the franchise last year. Enter stage right, Colin Rea. Rea, a 34-year-old veteran arm, came to the Cubs in the offseason through a one-year contract. The former Brewer has had an interesting career, spending time in the NPB himself in between MLB stops. Not to discredit much of what the right-hander has accomplished since his return Stateside, but over the last few years, his best quality was simply being available. Sporting lackluster Statcast, stuff+ and peripherals, Rea was versatile, capable of shuttling between roles in the rotation and bullpen, and ended up pitching the second most innings for the 2023 and 2024 Brewers (both seasons which ended with division titles for the Wisconsin-based side). He wasn't dominant, but he could always go when the team needed him. In today's day and age of pitcher injuries, this has intrinsic value beyond a Statcast page. Since the first time he took the mound for the Northside, however, it's been clear the Cubs had been under-the-hood tinkering with the arsenal and have helped transform him into a pitcher who goes beyond his durability. Rea has essentially scrapped his signature sinker in favor of a fastball (that has increased in velocity around 1.5 mph). His fastball also sports more arm-side run. He's split his sweeper usage, which he threw 16% of the time in 2024, to feature both the sweeper (now only used 9.8%) and a distinct slider (which he throws a little over 10% of the time). This has currently valued the pitcher to the top of the Cubs' fWAR pitching leaderboard. The blueprint may create a version of a right-handed Shota Imanaga, so looking at him can be a way to understand these changes. Despite throwing a fastball that sits below 92mph, the lefty has not shied away from featuring the pitch 49% of the time. One of the things that helps benefit Shota is his 37-degree arm angle - an awkwardly low arm-slot which helps create deception for his pitch, which has a lot of vertical "rise" (in reality, this is truly a lack of drop). He tends to throw the fastball up-and-over the outside portion of the plate to help create tunneling with his split finger, which he uses on the same edge of the plate. It forces hitters into difficult decisions: Is this a fastball? Or is it a split finger? This is highlighted in the chart below. Returning to their newer two additions, the Chicago Cubs have significantly dropped Colin Rea's arm slot. Rea has seen his arm angle drop nearly five degrees from where it was with the Brewers, now sporting an arm angle of 30 degrees. This is essentially a side-arm delivery. The drop of angle has helped to create extra arm-side run on his fastball, which he now throws nearly 50% of the time. His fastball is also used on the upper third of he plate (though not as high as Shota), particularly on the outer-third of the plate. His sweeper, which he has split into two distinct pitches, is also located on that outer-third. The sweeper creates more horizontal movement, while his slider has more vertical drop. Because all three pitches are placed on the same third of the plate, this also can create a tunnel and force hitters to decide where to swing; is this going to be a fastball up? Is this the sweeper that will break away from me? Or the slider, which will break down? Indecision can create slower decision-making, which can help miss barrels, and help create whiffs - both are things Rea is doing at career highs right now. In my opinion, the fastball has been an important pitch for Rea. Moving away from the sinker gives Rea a few advantages. First, it changes the location of where a hitter's eyes are looking. Rea had a habit of throwing the sinker in the same region where his sweeper went, low and away. Throwing the fastball from a lower arm slot in a higher area creates extra deception and forces a new level for the hitter to look. It's deception. Secondly, it moves the pitch away from the hitter's launch areas. Sinkers can be great in creating a lot of ground balls as hitters swing over the pitch. The issue, however, is that when they float up, they drop directly into the bat path. Launch angle is designed to take advantage of low pitches, meaning sinkers can find barrels. It's not shocking, then, to look at how Rea has managed to miss more barrels by switching to a high-fastball-heavy approach. I think we're seeing a max-effort on this pitch to improve the velocity (Rea has struggled for length on the season, which would help explain that), but it's been useful. If this is starting to feel familiar, it should, because these are many of the same ways that Shota Imanaga attacks hitters. Another place we can see a parallel is how often the two pound the zone. Shota is a strike thrower, throwing around 54.7% of his pitches in the zone this season, according to MLB.com's Statcast. Colin Rea has upped his strike throwing this season, jumping from 51.6% of the time to 54.4% of his pitches in the strike zone. The biggest change is his first-pitch strike%, which has jumped to 77.6%. What this does is give both pitchers an advantage: count leverage. To understand this best, I'd implore you to watch Foolish Baseball's breakdown of the subject. Still, the takeaway from his video is this: throwing strikes matters because the difference between when a hitter is ahead in the count and when they're behind is stark. Throwing strikes matters. Colin Rea and Shota Imanaga take this to heart and use their ability to fill up the zone to give them the leverage they need. If you're getting excited that Colin Rea will represent the Chicago Cubs in the All-Star game like Shota did in 2024, I will pump the brakes a bit before the Rea-hype-train becomes a runaway. Despite the uptick in fastball velocity, Stuff+ hates the pitch as it currently grades out as a pretty-awful-85 on their scale. Now, it could be that the Cubs have found an outlier pitch that Stuff+ cannot fully grasp (there are outliers with all statistics), but it's more likely that the pitch is not designed to be a winner in a vacuum; instead, it plays off his sweeper/slider. This is a drastic departure from Imanaga, as it should be noted that Shota's fastball has been a Stuff+ darling. On its own, it's probably not a great offering. Another issue will be how he handles the uptick in fly balls. As the weather warms up, Rea will likely have to deal with a new issue; he's no longer inducing ground balls at the same rate. This checks out, he's throwing a fastball up, not a sinker down. This means he's going to get bit by the home run more. So far, on the season, he's surrendered none; this won't keep up. It's also likely that teams have not adjusted to the new Rea yet, either. We should expect the league to update the scouting report on the righty moving forward to look for more four-seam fastballs, that he's using a new slider, and that the arm angle has significantly dropped. Part of his early-season success is likely an aspect of surprise; this wasn't expected. As teams see him more and more, they will get more familiar with his new offerings. I'll allow everyone to dream a little, however. While I doubt that Rea will ultimately lead the team in fWAR on the pitching side, I think these changes will create a better starting pitcher. The arm angle has created deception. Unlike the fastball, the slider is getting good grades from Stuff+ models; he has significantly increased his ability to miss barrels and induce swings-and-misses; on the whole, he's a better pitcher than he was before. So while we shouldn't expect Colin Rea to be Shota Imanaga, we can look to Imanaga to understand how the Cubs are improving Colin Rea. There's a concerted effort by the pitcher and the team to maximize his offerings, maximize his motion, and create a viable starting pitcher. So while I wouldn't expect Rea to be an ace, I think he's moving to entrench himself in the Cubs' rotation for the remainder of the 2025 season as a valuable member. View full article

He probably didn't, but I didnt consider him in this process because he was a special case. That comment was more along the lines of this idea that the Cubs dont have some perfect Shaw fallback that is better than Berti. However, when it comes to Alex, it isnt as if the Cubs offered some Mickey Mouse contract like people act like as the reason he is in Boston. The "the Cubs didnt offer a serious deal" narrative I keep reading is not grounded in what's out there. As reported by Matt, the Cubs offer was essentially the same AAV as the Red Sox. Boston used deferred money to get there, so the dollar amount sounds larger, but real-world-cash it is not leagues better. He wanted opt outs every year. The Cubs wanted him for *more* than just one year, their opt out was after two years. They offered him over $30m AAV. I believe it's important to remember, one of the big fears *this own board had* was signing Bregman for one year and losing him. If the frustration is that the team is one-player-short, I agree. The Cubs need to get things over the line. They could go a bit further at times. I dont want to make it sound like I'm carrying the FO's water here, only adding context. Two things can be true at the same time: the Cubs offered a legitimate deal to Bregman and the Cubs ended the offseason with one too many holes. Bregman was offered a real contract that was more than capable of getting him signed. Sucks it didn't happen, thats a thing that happens however. It's also a bit of a push-pull outcome by waiting the market out. The reaosn the Cubs had a chance is because they were patient, but missing at that stage leaves you with less fall back options. When the Cubs do go further, for example, Kyle Tucker, people panic about losing their Cam Smith-s. This isnt at you in particular, but for many, it seems as though they are damned if they do, damned if they don't. Had they offered Bregman 6/$30m-aav and signed him, there is a contingency of people who would have panicked that the Cubs wouldn't even try to extend Tucker now, or that it was too long; I'm fully convinced it would be something. Going back to the original point, outside of Bregman, the Cubs were always going to be in a situation where it was Matt Shaw and a journeyman. It could have been Shaw and Moncada (who has been bad), or Shaw and Rojas (who is hurt), but it was going to be something like this. The hope was Shaw was going to hit the ground running, but mechanically he got thrown off. Thankfully for the Cubs offense hasn't been an issue. They should be fine until he gets his sea-legs as long as the Cubs can continue to play good baseball.

I don't think he needs to be here today. But if he gets mechanically right over two weeks, then he should be up again. There's no reason at that point to keep him down if he's cruising and looking right. The reason PCA and Busch and Amaya have all blossomed is because we stuck through some bumps. Shaw will have bumps. We will need to stick through them.

That's not really true. What you saw was an out-of-whack hitter who's mechanics were all horsefeathered up. Looking at his Triple-A data, it shows that pretty heavily. We can see that because: Matt Shaw is chasing less, making more contact and swinging almost exclusevely at strikes in Triple-A. This is in comparison to his Triple-A run last year. He's struck out once in 27 PAs, for example. That's someone who has returned from the MLB, is seeing lesser pitching, and it's not an issue for him. His pitch recognition is better than it had been. Matt Shaw, despite the above, has made consistently weak contact until today. He's hitting a lot of things on the ground despite having a positive launch angle on the swing. That's someone who's mechanically off, not someone who's incapable. He hit a home run and a double today in which I thought he looked much better. I believe his bottom half became unhitched from the top - he wasn't on time. Should we expect a stud hitter right off the bat? No. But I also think once he gets the mechanics back in order, he'll be much better and what you saw was not what Shaw will be even in the interim.

What legit 3b was going to want to sign with a team who wanted to give the spot to Shaw? Let's be realistic. The Cubs brought in Berti who is exactly the level of player who was going to come in to play caddy to a prospect like Shaw.

Romano has been horrendous this year. So of course he'll cruise.

Thielbar's starting to figure it out, at least.

Did Brujan not recognize it was Turner? I'm not sure he'd have gotten him anyways but that pat to the glove may have been the difference.

Get out of here with only one run and you're still in a decent spot.

Happ catch....Happ walkoff home run? I'll speak it into existence.

Credit to Castellanos for getting that much power on that inside curveball. Credit to Happ for making the tough grab. Let's score one and win this horsefeathers.

Ballesteros is not really a replacement for Turner for a host of reasons. Ballesteros is left handed. While it's true his splits in the MiLB suggest he should be a capable hitter against LHP, calling him up to be the short-side platoon to go lefty-lefty in most of his PA's is not a particularly great position to put him to succeed. Ballesteros can only play 1b/DH/C. The Cubs catching situation between Amaya and Kelly has been amazing so far and has the ability to continue to be above average. Seiya Suzuki has been amazing, He has the fifth highest wRC+ for DH's. Michael Busch has been really good against RHP and doesn't need to be sat against them. Offense hasn't been the Cubs issue. Turner hasn't been good, and there's enough there to make you think he might be cooked, but there's no rush on replacing him. They probably should shorten the leash and give him less run until he shows more, though. Ballesteros needs to develop behind the plate. He will do less of that sitting on the bench in Chicago or playing 1b or DH. His catching opportunities in games would be near non-existent right now. I get the want to see Ballesteros in Chicago, and that his bat looks too advanced for Iowa currently. But the Cubs are in a great situation where offensively, they're not hurting, and can afford to let Mo develop the correct way defensively. If Suzuki needs a true IL stint, if Happ/Tucker/Busch/Amaya/Kelly (any of them) pick up a knock and need an IL stint, then Moises Ballesteros immediately makes sense as the next up. But until then, the Cubs don't need to take away from his defensive development to throw him to the wolves as a L-L platoon-er. If Turner is truly cooked, it's not going to be that hard to find a RHH who hits LHP.

Tom Cosgrove has been promoted to Chicago. No corresponding move announced yet.

Welcome to NSBB! I'm going to disagree about Ballesteros. First, I don't think Ballesteros is a suitable swap with Turner. It would be very difficult to essentially bring him up to be the short-side-platoon for Busch. Ballesteros hits left handed pitching fine, but he's left handed himself. That's a really tricky situation to be placed into. Secondly, his development matters at the catching position. Being the backup first baseman who's facing almost exclusively LHP means you're losing his ability to continue to develop in Iowa as a catcher. It's probably not a worthwhile trade off. We're probably getting to a place where we can't simply platoon Turner with Busch and expect it's doing much; Turner's starting to look a bit cooked. I wouldn't release him yet, but his opportunities probably need to be shrunk until he shows more. But Ballesteros probably isn't the solution.

For anyone interested in pitching, Lance is the best. Sincerely.

I initially disliked both, but came around on Boyd. Will confidently say I didn't love Rea ever. Willing to eat crow on both.

Cubs have done some cool things with him. Good for him.

Adames just got the Brinks truck rolled up with 8.1 fWAR and a 107 wRC+. Swanson's been the better player over that time. I would fully expect the league to pay Swanson.

We know better than to make decisions based on 25 games like that. Do we think the Mets are royally horsefeathered because Juan Soto has a 115 wRC+ through 25 games? He's slumping right now, but he's not toast. Would anyone offer him 7 years at 31 now? No, probably not. He's also two years older. Would someone have offered him the AAV the Cubs did this last offseason? Probably more - he's a good player and his contract has been a very good one thus far. He needs like two good weeks. There's nothing in the data suggesting he's toasted all of a sudden.