Jason Ross
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I have probably not been as excited for a Cubs pitching prospect's debut as I was for Cade Horton's in a long time. The Cubs have had other pitching prospects make their debuts between Mark Prior and Horton, including some very recently (such as Adbert Alzolay and Justin Steele), but none have captured me in the same way, and I doubt many have captured Cubs fans' imaginations the same way, in general. After the initial excitement has worn off, and we're three starts into his career, we can begin to take stock of what the rookie has been able to do well, and where he can continue to refine his game. The thing Horton has done best so far is limit walks, which is great for a young pitcher. Horton has walked just three hitters so far in his big-league career. This is awesome, but not entirely unexpected; I've written in the past about how Horton attacks hitters, often by pumping strikes early, and often within the zone. This has generally carried over to the highest level. Horton has thrown a first-pitch strike to 61.9% of hitters, which puts him in decent company league-wide. He gets to strike one more often than Max Fried, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Hicks, and Garrett Crochet. This allows Horton to command early count leverage, which has helped to keep his walk total low. His focus is keeping guys off the bases. A counterpoint to this, however, is that Horton's still struggling with both control and command. For our purposes today, I'm going to define control as a pitcher's general ability to throw strikes, and command as their ability to locate strikes within the zone. You may have your own definitions of these terms, but it's how I'm going to use them, and I think it's important I lay that out. First, while Horton's getting strike one well, he's struggling to throw strikes thereafter—specifically, with his slider. He's thrown under 50% of all of his pitches in the zone, with his slider being the biggest culprit. There's no question, his slider is his best pitch, but right now, he's not really controlling that pitch well. Here are two charts. The first is where his pitches are located in general, and the second shows where Horton generates whiffs. That box at the bottom right is where the slider tends to be thrown. It's also where he's thrown the most pitches overall. It's not shocking that Horton is generating a lot of whiffs in the zone he's pitching the most often in. But he's leaving a lot of meat on the bone with where he's throwing his slider, because while he generates a good amount of whiff in that zone, that number is likely held back by how many wasteful pitches (or pitches so far off the zone one cannot expect a hitter to realistically swing at them) he has. The next two images help to highlight this issue. The chart on the left shows his general swing rate, and on the right is a breakdown of pitches from his most recent start against Miami. Pay attention to the dots in gold, as these represent the slider, and note how many are very far outside of the strike zone. Non-competitive pitches allow hitters to stay in the at-bat; they're easy takes. I'll use an example from his start against the Chicago White Sox. Horton was up in the count 1-2 against White Sox hitter Brooks Baldwin. He had Baldwin on the ropes, having gone fastball-fastball-fastball to start, with the second strike being a 95-mph heater at the knees. If Horton buried the slider below the zone, but in an area that forced a swing, it would have been an easy punchout for the rookie. Instead, Horton overthrew the breaking ball (Savant has it as a curveball, but I think it's a slider that it's confusing based on the movement profile). Baldwin easily spat on the pitch. This would eventually not be an issue, as the White Sox hitter grounded out one pitch later, but these types of things highlight what's holding Horton back. With better control of the slider, he gets a punchout here. MTZxTVJfWGw0TUFRPT1fQUFZRlZRWURCQWNBWFZjSEJ3QUhWVklBQUZrSEJRY0FBUUVGQTFWWFZWQlFCbE5T.mp4 Horton hasn't just struggled with put-away pitches, but also with commanding his fastball in the zone. I've written how Horton tends to bully hitters in the zone, but one thing he's probably gotten away with too long is just bullying hitters with mediocre fastball placement. In Triple A, his unique heater can dominate. Against the best of the best, you have to demonstrate finer execution. Here's another mistake from Horton, a center-cut fastball to Miguel Vargas. This is just not where that fastball needs to be, particularly given how Horton's fastball works, and Vargas did what big-league hitters do to badly located fastballs: he hit it a long way. This is fixable, and a point of polish that needs to be addressed at some point. For Horton, the natural movement of his fastball should help inform him how to make that happen. MTZxTVJfWGw0TUFRPT1fQXdjSFVGWURVZ3NBQ1FjR0FnQUhCQUZSQUZoUVVRTUFCUVlEQ1ZjQkJBWUhCRkFI.mp4 Horton's fastball shape is unusual, in that it has a lot of cutting action. His pitch naturally moves to the glove side, or in a right-handed hitter's case away from them. To a lefty, Horton's heater hums toward their hands. In the above video, Horton's movement was working against him. Notice where Miguel Amaya wanted it, and where it actually went. As Horton missed by a matter of inches, his fastball cut into the middle of the zone, and Vargas was able to crush it. It's an issue. but fixable—and using that shape is the answer. The fix is to start by moving that location away from a righty, and inside to a LHH. By starting that pitch on the outer third to a hitter like Vargas, two things would happen: It's going to help set up his slider, by creating a stronger connection between fastball location and slider location and forcing a later decision point for a hitter. More importantly, however, it's going to create a situation where if Horton misses by two inches, it rides out of the zone, harmlessly, for a ball, instead of into the middle of the plate (like the example in the video above). The same will happen for a lefty batter; he'll be able to crash the hands of the hitter and miss inside, as opposed to leaking back over the middle. A great place to look how to do this is Justin Steele, who uses a cut fastball himself. Steele doesn't have a third pitch, which I'll get to in a moment, but is able to use this same philosophy to his advantage. Below, you'll see Horton's cut-fastball location against both righties and lefties, with Steele's cut-fastball placement superimposed on them (these have been mirrored across the axis to account for the handedness of each pitcher). Against same-handed batters (the lefthand image), the heat maps are basically the same shape and in the same place. Against opposite-handed ones, though, Horton is working away, whereas Steele's approach is to use the glove side of the plate even when that means coming inside. The veteran lefty is great at getting that cut fastball to miss the middle of the plate, and he's been adept at limiting hard contact and home runs because of it. So what if the rookie emulated this—just at 95-97 mph, as opposed to 91-93? That would be a pretty devastating change, and that's before we add in a third pitch that Steele doesn't have in his arsenal. It's inches, but they're meaningful inches. I don't want to make it sound all doom-and-gloom. Horton is a rookie, and rookies are imperfect beings who need to learn. The positive is that Horton clearly wants to learn, and is willing to make changes. I harped a bit on Horton's slider placement during his last start, but I want to instead heap praise in another way during that same appearance: his changeup was lovely. This is an important pitch for a heavy fastball-slider pitcher, as it will allow him to control left-handed hitters in a way that other fastball-slider types (such as Alzolay or Hayden Wesneski) were unable to do. It's even a pitch Steele doesn't really have, because if you supinate (turn the forearm and hand inward) as Steele and Horton do to generate their cutting heaters and their sliders, it can be hard to pronate (turning the hand outward) enough to create a usable cambio. Horton threw the changeup a whopping 18 times on Wednesday (17 against aforementioned left-handed hitters), generating 11 swings and eight whiffs. For Horton to lean on the changeup on a day his slider wasn't useful and his fastball placement was mediocre was great to see. This is especially important against a lineup with a lot of left-handed hitters, and a team in the Marlins who is a pretty good team against fastballs (13th in baseball in Batter Run Value/100 on the pitch). It was a good game plan from the rookie, especially because it seemed to require an adjustment after he got hit hard in the first inning. This is a big step up from just a few starts ago. Horton's debut saw him throw just one changeup, to Juan Soto in a 3-2 count (resulting in a strikeout), despite the Mets having a handful of lefties: Soto, but also Francisco Lindor and Brett Baty (who homered off of him, on a hagning slider). This is awesome development and trust in a newer pitch. akQ5ZVpfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0FRWlNBVmNFVlFJQVdWc0dWQUFIQXdVRUFBQUhWd01BVjF3QVZGQUhCRllBVkFWVw==.mp4 I'm going to leave everyone with what I think is the best version of a Cade Horton slider, and what I think he can become if he dials in just a little more. Horton was facing Luis Robert Jr early in the game against the White Sox. He'd hang a pitch to Vargas one hitter later, but don't let that cloud your vision on the pitch I'm about to show. The Cubs rookie had the White Sox center fielder in a 2-2 count. He'd just missed on a slider that was one of those "waste" pitches I showed earlier; it was too far off the corner. Horton came back with the same pitch, but this time, it was just a bit better. It was an inch or so higher, and more centered over the plate. Robert swung over it, and the rookie got a well-deserved punchout. That's the pitch Horton had hoped to throw to Baldwin in the example I had above, and he got it here. That's the best version of the Horton slider. MTZxTVJfWGw0TUFRPT1fQVFKWEFWTUZYMWNBRGxFTFZnQUhVbFVIQUFOUlV3VUFDd01HVkZWVUJnQldWZ1pX.mp4 If Horton can find that pitch just a little more often, adapt his fastball location, and continue to trust the changeup like he did on Wednesday, the Cubs have a star on their hands. That pitch against Robert was unhittable, and it looked just enough like a Horton fastball that he'll consistently generate chase on that pitch. I'll harken back to something I talked about with Matt Shaw: this is literally a game of inches. Horton isn't miles off from being the pitcher we want him to be; he's just inches off. He's just inches from finding his fastball command, and just inches from finding the right control with his slider. He's believing in the changeup more and more. Once he finds those inches, Horton has everything he needs to be an anchor in the rotation. With Shota Imanaga out "well into June", as Counsell put it, Horton will have a few more starts to find those inches with the Cubs—and if he does, a few hundred more starts after that. What have you thought about Cade Horton's starts so far? Are you encouraged? Impressed? Do you think these changes would make a difference? Let us know in the comments below. View full article
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Cade Horton Finding Ways to Improve in Game of Inches for Chicago Cubs
Jason Ross posted an article in Cubs
I have probably not been as excited for a Cubs pitching prospect's debut as I was for Cade Horton's in a long time. The Cubs have had other pitching prospects make their debuts between Mark Prior and Horton, including some very recently (such as Adbert Alzolay and Justin Steele), but none have captured me in the same way, and I doubt many have captured Cubs fans' imaginations the same way, in general. After the initial excitement has worn off, and we're three starts into his career, we can begin to take stock of what the rookie has been able to do well, and where he can continue to refine his game. The thing Horton has done best so far is limit walks, which is great for a young pitcher. Horton has walked just three hitters so far in his big-league career. This is awesome, but not entirely unexpected; I've written in the past about how Horton attacks hitters, often by pumping strikes early, and often within the zone. This has generally carried over to the highest level. Horton has thrown a first-pitch strike to 61.9% of hitters, which puts him in decent company league-wide. He gets to strike one more often than Max Fried, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Hicks, and Garrett Crochet. This allows Horton to command early count leverage, which has helped to keep his walk total low. His focus is keeping guys off the bases. A counterpoint to this, however, is that Horton's still struggling with both control and command. For our purposes today, I'm going to define control as a pitcher's general ability to throw strikes, and command as their ability to locate strikes within the zone. You may have your own definitions of these terms, but it's how I'm going to use them, and I think it's important I lay that out. First, while Horton's getting strike one well, he's struggling to throw strikes thereafter—specifically, with his slider. He's thrown under 50% of all of his pitches in the zone, with his slider being the biggest culprit. There's no question, his slider is his best pitch, but right now, he's not really controlling that pitch well. Here are two charts. The first is where his pitches are located in general, and the second shows where Horton generates whiffs. That box at the bottom right is where the slider tends to be thrown. It's also where he's thrown the most pitches overall. It's not shocking that Horton is generating a lot of whiffs in the zone he's pitching the most often in. But he's leaving a lot of meat on the bone with where he's throwing his slider, because while he generates a good amount of whiff in that zone, that number is likely held back by how many wasteful pitches (or pitches so far off the zone one cannot expect a hitter to realistically swing at them) he has. The next two images help to highlight this issue. The chart on the left shows his general swing rate, and on the right is a breakdown of pitches from his most recent start against Miami. Pay attention to the dots in gold, as these represent the slider, and note how many are very far outside of the strike zone. Non-competitive pitches allow hitters to stay in the at-bat; they're easy takes. I'll use an example from his start against the Chicago White Sox. Horton was up in the count 1-2 against White Sox hitter Brooks Baldwin. He had Baldwin on the ropes, having gone fastball-fastball-fastball to start, with the second strike being a 95-mph heater at the knees. If Horton buried the slider below the zone, but in an area that forced a swing, it would have been an easy punchout for the rookie. Instead, Horton overthrew the breaking ball (Savant has it as a curveball, but I think it's a slider that it's confusing based on the movement profile). Baldwin easily spat on the pitch. This would eventually not be an issue, as the White Sox hitter grounded out one pitch later, but these types of things highlight what's holding Horton back. With better control of the slider, he gets a punchout here. MTZxTVJfWGw0TUFRPT1fQUFZRlZRWURCQWNBWFZjSEJ3QUhWVklBQUZrSEJRY0FBUUVGQTFWWFZWQlFCbE5T.mp4 Horton hasn't just struggled with put-away pitches, but also with commanding his fastball in the zone. I've written how Horton tends to bully hitters in the zone, but one thing he's probably gotten away with too long is just bullying hitters with mediocre fastball placement. In Triple A, his unique heater can dominate. Against the best of the best, you have to demonstrate finer execution. Here's another mistake from Horton, a center-cut fastball to Miguel Vargas. This is just not where that fastball needs to be, particularly given how Horton's fastball works, and Vargas did what big-league hitters do to badly located fastballs: he hit it a long way. This is fixable, and a point of polish that needs to be addressed at some point. For Horton, the natural movement of his fastball should help inform him how to make that happen. MTZxTVJfWGw0TUFRPT1fQXdjSFVGWURVZ3NBQ1FjR0FnQUhCQUZSQUZoUVVRTUFCUVlEQ1ZjQkJBWUhCRkFI.mp4 Horton's fastball shape is unusual, in that it has a lot of cutting action. His pitch naturally moves to the glove side, or in a right-handed hitter's case away from them. To a lefty, Horton's heater hums toward their hands. In the above video, Horton's movement was working against him. Notice where Miguel Amaya wanted it, and where it actually went. As Horton missed by a matter of inches, his fastball cut into the middle of the zone, and Vargas was able to crush it. It's an issue. but fixable—and using that shape is the answer. The fix is to start by moving that location away from a righty, and inside to a LHH. By starting that pitch on the outer third to a hitter like Vargas, two things would happen: It's going to help set up his slider, by creating a stronger connection between fastball location and slider location and forcing a later decision point for a hitter. More importantly, however, it's going to create a situation where if Horton misses by two inches, it rides out of the zone, harmlessly, for a ball, instead of into the middle of the plate (like the example in the video above). The same will happen for a lefty batter; he'll be able to crash the hands of the hitter and miss inside, as opposed to leaking back over the middle. A great place to look how to do this is Justin Steele, who uses a cut fastball himself. Steele doesn't have a third pitch, which I'll get to in a moment, but is able to use this same philosophy to his advantage. Below, you'll see Horton's cut-fastball location against both righties and lefties, with Steele's cut-fastball placement superimposed on them (these have been mirrored across the axis to account for the handedness of each pitcher). Against same-handed batters (the lefthand image), the heat maps are basically the same shape and in the same place. Against opposite-handed ones, though, Horton is working away, whereas Steele's approach is to use the glove side of the plate even when that means coming inside. The veteran lefty is great at getting that cut fastball to miss the middle of the plate, and he's been adept at limiting hard contact and home runs because of it. So what if the rookie emulated this—just at 95-97 mph, as opposed to 91-93? That would be a pretty devastating change, and that's before we add in a third pitch that Steele doesn't have in his arsenal. It's inches, but they're meaningful inches. I don't want to make it sound all doom-and-gloom. Horton is a rookie, and rookies are imperfect beings who need to learn. The positive is that Horton clearly wants to learn, and is willing to make changes. I harped a bit on Horton's slider placement during his last start, but I want to instead heap praise in another way during that same appearance: his changeup was lovely. This is an important pitch for a heavy fastball-slider pitcher, as it will allow him to control left-handed hitters in a way that other fastball-slider types (such as Alzolay or Hayden Wesneski) were unable to do. It's even a pitch Steele doesn't really have, because if you supinate (turn the forearm and hand inward) as Steele and Horton do to generate their cutting heaters and their sliders, it can be hard to pronate (turning the hand outward) enough to create a usable cambio. Horton threw the changeup a whopping 18 times on Wednesday (17 against aforementioned left-handed hitters), generating 11 swings and eight whiffs. For Horton to lean on the changeup on a day his slider wasn't useful and his fastball placement was mediocre was great to see. This is especially important against a lineup with a lot of left-handed hitters, and a team in the Marlins who is a pretty good team against fastballs (13th in baseball in Batter Run Value/100 on the pitch). It was a good game plan from the rookie, especially because it seemed to require an adjustment after he got hit hard in the first inning. This is a big step up from just a few starts ago. Horton's debut saw him throw just one changeup, to Juan Soto in a 3-2 count (resulting in a strikeout), despite the Mets having a handful of lefties: Soto, but also Francisco Lindor and Brett Baty (who homered off of him, on a hagning slider). This is awesome development and trust in a newer pitch. akQ5ZVpfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0FRWlNBVmNFVlFJQVdWc0dWQUFIQXdVRUFBQUhWd01BVjF3QVZGQUhCRllBVkFWVw==.mp4 I'm going to leave everyone with what I think is the best version of a Cade Horton slider, and what I think he can become if he dials in just a little more. Horton was facing Luis Robert Jr early in the game against the White Sox. He'd hang a pitch to Vargas one hitter later, but don't let that cloud your vision on the pitch I'm about to show. The Cubs rookie had the White Sox center fielder in a 2-2 count. He'd just missed on a slider that was one of those "waste" pitches I showed earlier; it was too far off the corner. Horton came back with the same pitch, but this time, it was just a bit better. It was an inch or so higher, and more centered over the plate. Robert swung over it, and the rookie got a well-deserved punchout. That's the pitch Horton had hoped to throw to Baldwin in the example I had above, and he got it here. That's the best version of the Horton slider. MTZxTVJfWGw0TUFRPT1fQVFKWEFWTUZYMWNBRGxFTFZnQUhVbFVIQUFOUlV3VUFDd01HVkZWVUJnQldWZ1pX.mp4 If Horton can find that pitch just a little more often, adapt his fastball location, and continue to trust the changeup like he did on Wednesday, the Cubs have a star on their hands. That pitch against Robert was unhittable, and it looked just enough like a Horton fastball that he'll consistently generate chase on that pitch. I'll harken back to something I talked about with Matt Shaw: this is literally a game of inches. Horton isn't miles off from being the pitcher we want him to be; he's just inches off. He's just inches from finding his fastball command, and just inches from finding the right control with his slider. He's believing in the changeup more and more. Once he finds those inches, Horton has everything he needs to be an anchor in the rotation. With Shota Imanaga out "well into June", as Counsell put it, Horton will have a few more starts to find those inches with the Cubs—and if he does, a few hundred more starts after that. What have you thought about Cade Horton's starts so far? Are you encouraged? Impressed? Do you think these changes would make a difference? Let us know in the comments below. -
Even more so, I can't find any system that thinks Sugano has really great stuff. BP's systems both think his stuff is real-real mediocre to poor, and Stuff+ agrees. His 13.8 K% is nearly unsustainably low and he's running an 87.5% LOB%. I guess "never say never" but this dude feels like there's no chance he's a FIP beater and is running some combination of "luck" and "never seen him before" to get some good ERA results up front.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-22-25
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I think he's in a weird goldilocks zone currently; he's both overrated by a certain faction and underrated by others, something we don't really see. And no shade thrown to anyone here necessarily, this is just a general concept I see when I peruse the online baseball spheres. I think he's a good prospect. There's enough interesting there with the bat that he's certainly an MLB-ceiling type. But I also think there's a bit of a "shiny new toy" aspect of Long in that he's someone many people haven't followed for a while so he's a fun addition currently and he's getting a bit of extra hype. The reality is that currently, he's a 1b/DH type who doesn't hit a lot of HR's. It's not an impossible landing area, Nathaniel Lowe hit 16 home runs last year as a 1b and was really good, but it's a more difficult one to find...you've gotta do a lot of the other things really well. Maybe he can eek out some 3b value, but I'm skeptical. I also find him underrated by the industry as a whole. He's easy to sleep on; lack of draft pedigree, not a big-name school, and with a bunch of other super fun prospects, the reality of prospect writing is that a Long goes under valued for that reason. I don't like accusing anyone specifically, but I do think there's an aspect of prospect ranking that either, consciously or subconsciously comes back to a "do we have too many of TEAM X's prospects on our list?" thought process and I think that hurts Johnny here a bit. So I'd say my excitement is high, but capped. I don't think he's a better prospect than Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara, or Moises Ballesteros; he's a tier below. But he's probably a tier above, say, Ben Cowles and Christian Franklin. Maybe he's in that James Triantos area where they do enough well with the bat that they'll likely be an MLB player, but they might not ever hit enough or play defense at a premium enough position to warrant being an MLB starter. -
I think we have to accept this is *probably* just what Moises Ballesteros looks like. He's been in the Cubs system since signing in 2021, so were going on four years and I doubt the Cubs haven't worked on doing to the best they can. I also suspect Ballesteros does the best he can, or at least, without knowing him, don't want to accuse him of not, ya know? He's slimmed down some. This is probably an "is what it is" situation. As well, many people can look one way on the outside, but still be fairly ripped. I've never see him without a shirt on, and it could be that his shape hides the progress.
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Yep! It's a normal learning curve for players of his ilk. Matt Shaw and Pete Crow-Armstrong are in a similar "high-swing-high contact" build (different enough that they're not 1:1. butt they're in that same area, IMO) as is Nico Hoerner. It's a cool skillset to have for sure! But you always want to find a way to play within yourself.
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Evaluating Moises Ballesteros's Cup of Coffee with Chicago Cubs
Jason Ross posted an article in Minor Leagues
When evaluating young players, especially in their first cup of coffee at the highest level, it's easy to want to go to a player's FanGraphs page, take a cursory look at the numbers, and come to a conclusion. Jumping over to Moises Ballesteros's page would have you see the 41 wRC+, the .226 wOBA, the negative launch angle, and the 66% ground ball rate. On the surface, that isn't good. But I think doing that ignores the nuance of the true answer, and would give you an overly simplistic view of what his first go against the world's toughest competition really was like. So, instead of burying the lead, I'll come right out with it: I thought it was a good little stint, and I'm glad Ballesteros got a chance to play in Chicago. That doesn't mean I think everything went perfectly—far from it—but that the time he spent was valuable learning experience, and some positive results were sprinkled among those rough statistics mentioned before. First, the good. Before even diving into the data, just by the eye test, it looked like he wasn't entirely over-matched. He looked like a rookie, sure, but he didn't look so far removed that he stuck out like a sore thumb. For comparison's sake, I thought Gage Workman (who, to be fair to him, isn't on the same level of prospect as Ballesteros) looked far more like a fish out of water when he got his smattering of chances with the Cubs. I don't want to pile on to the former Cub, but Ballesteros never looked like he was simply dominated in any appearance he had. Workman felt that way often. Diving deeper into the numbers can help us confirm the eye test. Ballesteros made contact on 87.5% of his swings. He struck out in just 8.5% of his appearances. The bat speed was a positive. He's got a pretty quick swing, as his 72.9-mph swing would put him in the upper third of hitters in that category. He probably got a bit unlucky, on balance. Below is a lineout Ballesteros had in Saturday's tilt against the White Sox. White Sox starting pitcher Jonathon Cannon made a mistake on 1-2. The Cubs rookie did exactly what he should do: he hit a screamer to right field, registering an exit velocity over 100 mph. Statcast estimates the expected batting average on this at .530—a ball you probably think should land as a knock. Instead, the White Sox right fielder tracks the ball down on the run; Ballesteros is out. That's some bad luck! ckQ4M1BfWGw0TUFRPT1fVUZKWkJnZFNBQW9BVzFBQ1VBQUhWdzVSQUZnTVVRVUFVMUFFQndzSENBRlZDRkVI.mp4 While there were some obvious positives, Ballesteros didn't just bad-luck his way to a 41 wRC+, either. Sure, it's a very small sample, and there isn't anything that I find as a massive red flag, but there are places for polish—namely, in learning how to rein in his style. He's a hitter who excels at making contact, and lots of it. He also is a hitter who swings more often than is the norm. We saw this in Iowa, as Ballesteros was in the 83rd percentile of hitters in zone-swing%, meaning he swings a lot, and in the 21st percentile of out-of-zone-swing, which also means he swings a lot. Savvy major-league pitchers can exploit this (more so than developing Triple-A pitchers), as Marlins pitcher Vicente Bellozo did during the rookie's second-ever MLB at-bat. The situation; Moises Ballesteros strode to the plate. The score was tied, the bases were loaded, and the rookie is set to be the early-inning hero. And the crowd knew it. The Cubs DH watched the first pitch, a curveball in the dirt, to get ahead in the count; the difference between 0-1 and 1-0 is huge for a hitter. Behind in the count, Bellozo then threw a changeup up and away. It wasn't a good pitch, nor one Ballesteros should even have considered swinging at; nothing good was going to come of it. Perhaps it was nerves, excitement, whatever. He swung, and grounded into a weak double play. Inning over. Threat over. RDFBTWJfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdCV1UxUUFWQW9BQ1ZZRFZnQUhWdzRIQUZrTkFnY0FBVmNFQmdkV0FGWUFCMVJm.mp4 The moral of the story is simple: just because you can hit it doesn't mean you should hit it. A swing and a miss would have been preferable in this situation, but a combination of high-swing% and high-contact% results in a deadly twin-killing instead of having the Marlins' pitcher on the ropes. The Cubs would eventually win the game 5-4, so this didn't ultimately cost them anything, but it's a good highlight of where Ballesteros can learn. This wasn't exactly a one-off, and Ballesteros swung too often at pitches out of the zone. Two-thirds of his contact was made up of grounders, and a lot of that was the swing choices he made. I don't mean to harp on the kid, though. Baseball is an iterative game, and jumping to the major-league level creates a massive learning curve, but it's pointing out where things can be fixed and improved upon. When Ballesteros can be just a bit more choosy, he'll really begin to do damage. It's there. He hit a few balls on the button. But too often, he was caught out hitting weak ground balls. As the Cubs' prospective slugger heads back to Iowa, he should do so with his head held high. I'm sure he wishes he had picked up a few extra-base hits or come through with the bases loaded, but there was nothing egregiously bad in his first 18 chances at the highest level. For him to truly stick, he will need to use some sandpaper on the rough edges, but this isn't a unique situation. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Shaw have had to adjust their swings, and we can see just how much that's improved the former (while the latter looks better in limited time, as well). I'm excited to see him refine his approach as he moves forward, and it doesn't have to be a sweeping change. He can still be an aggressive, high-contact hitter. He should just plan to be a bit more selective. What did you think of Moises Ballesteros's first little bit in Chicago? Do you think he has the bat to stick as a DH? When do you think he'll be up next? Let us know in the comments below! -
Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images When evaluating young players, especially in their first cup of coffee at the highest level, it's easy to want to go to a player's FanGraphs page, take a cursory look at the numbers, and come to a conclusion. Jumping over to Moises Ballesteros's page would have you see the 41 wRC+, the .226 wOBA, the negative launch angle, and the 66% ground ball rate. On the surface, that isn't good. But I think doing that ignores the nuance of the true answer, and would give you an overly simplistic view of what his first go against the world's toughest competition really was like. So, instead of burying the lead, I'll come right out with it: I thought it was a good little stint, and I'm glad Ballesteros got a chance to play in Chicago. That doesn't mean I think everything went perfectly—far from it—but that the time he spent was valuable learning experience, and some positive results were sprinkled among those rough statistics mentioned before. First, the good. Before even diving into the data, just by the eye test, it looked like he wasn't entirely over-matched. He looked like a rookie, sure, but he didn't look so far removed that he stuck out like a sore thumb. For comparison's sake, I thought Gage Workman (who, to be fair to him, isn't on the same level of prospect as Ballesteros) looked far more like a fish out of water when he got his smattering of chances with the Cubs. I don't want to pile on to the former Cub, but Ballesteros never looked like he was simply dominated in any appearance he had. Workman felt that way often. Diving deeper into the numbers can help us confirm the eye test. Ballesteros made contact on 87.5% of his swings. He struck out in just 8.5% of his appearances. The bat speed was a positive. He's got a pretty quick swing, as his 72.9-mph swing would put him in the upper third of hitters in that category. He probably got a bit unlucky, on balance. Below is a lineout Ballesteros had in Saturday's tilt against the White Sox. White Sox starting pitcher Jonathon Cannon made a mistake on 1-2. The Cubs rookie did exactly what he should do: he hit a screamer to right field, registering an exit velocity over 100 mph. Statcast estimates the expected batting average on this at .530—a ball you probably think should land as a knock. Instead, the White Sox right fielder tracks the ball down on the run; Ballesteros is out. That's some bad luck! ckQ4M1BfWGw0TUFRPT1fVUZKWkJnZFNBQW9BVzFBQ1VBQUhWdzVSQUZnTVVRVUFVMUFFQndzSENBRlZDRkVI.mp4 While there were some obvious positives, Ballesteros didn't just bad-luck his way to a 41 wRC+, either. Sure, it's a very small sample, and there isn't anything that I find as a massive red flag, but there are places for polish—namely, in learning how to rein in his style. He's a hitter who excels at making contact, and lots of it. He also is a hitter who swings more often than is the norm. We saw this in Iowa, as Ballesteros was in the 83rd percentile of hitters in zone-swing%, meaning he swings a lot, and in the 21st percentile of out-of-zone-swing, which also means he swings a lot. Savvy major-league pitchers can exploit this (more so than developing Triple-A pitchers), as Marlins pitcher Vicente Bellozo did during the rookie's second-ever MLB at-bat. The situation; Moises Ballesteros strode to the plate. The score was tied, the bases were loaded, and the rookie is set to be the early-inning hero. And the crowd knew it. The Cubs DH watched the first pitch, a curveball in the dirt, to get ahead in the count; the difference between 0-1 and 1-0 is huge for a hitter. Behind in the count, Bellozo then threw a changeup up and away. It wasn't a good pitch, nor one Ballesteros should even have considered swinging at; nothing good was going to come of it. Perhaps it was nerves, excitement, whatever. He swung, and grounded into a weak double play. Inning over. Threat over. RDFBTWJfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdCV1UxUUFWQW9BQ1ZZRFZnQUhWdzRIQUZrTkFnY0FBVmNFQmdkV0FGWUFCMVJm.mp4 The moral of the story is simple: just because you can hit it doesn't mean you should hit it. A swing and a miss would have been preferable in this situation, but a combination of high-swing% and high-contact% results in a deadly twin-killing instead of having the Marlins' pitcher on the ropes. The Cubs would eventually win the game 5-4, so this didn't ultimately cost them anything, but it's a good highlight of where Ballesteros can learn. This wasn't exactly a one-off, and Ballesteros swung too often at pitches out of the zone. Two-thirds of his contact was made up of grounders, and a lot of that was the swing choices he made. I don't mean to harp on the kid, though. Baseball is an iterative game, and jumping to the major-league level creates a massive learning curve, but it's pointing out where things can be fixed and improved upon. When Ballesteros can be just a bit more choosy, he'll really begin to do damage. It's there. He hit a few balls on the button. But too often, he was caught out hitting weak ground balls. As the Cubs' prospective slugger heads back to Iowa, he should do so with his head held high. I'm sure he wishes he had picked up a few extra-base hits or come through with the bases loaded, but there was nothing egregiously bad in his first 18 chances at the highest level. For him to truly stick, he will need to use some sandpaper on the rough edges, but this isn't a unique situation. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Shaw have had to adjust their swings, and we can see just how much that's improved the former (while the latter looks better in limited time, as well). I'm excited to see him refine his approach as he moves forward, and it doesn't have to be a sweeping change. He can still be an aggressive, high-contact hitter. He should just plan to be a bit more selective. What did you think of Moises Ballesteros's first little bit in Chicago? Do you think he has the bat to stick as a DH? When do you think he'll be up next? Let us know in the comments below! View full article
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I'm not super excited about Danny P's whiff, but it's not terrible, either. He's getting 23% whiffs right now, and that can probably move up a bit, but if you miss barrels like he does, you can live that way. Ideally it'd be a bit more, but it's do-able. On the send...yeah should have let Shaw swing.
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You said "you can see if you were returning to face the Sox or the Rockies" suggesting that it's okay to not do a rehab stint if you're facing a bad pitching staff. The Marlins have been the second worst pitching staff in baseball so far - worse than the White Sox. I don't think a hitter needs a rehab stint after 10 days, you're the one who is harping on it. Yet, by your own admission, the Marlins should be one of the exemptions.
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Yeah, lots of hits. He's not getting misses on the fastballs - the Marlins hit the fastball pretty well but don't hit breaking balls well. Horton's still just over throwing the slider a bit and throwing the fastball too often as a strike. Result? Hits against a team who hits fastballs well but doesn't hit breaking balls well. Positive: his changeup is nasty today and he's really leaning on it. That's a great sign.
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It took him a few starts in Triple-A to get dialed in, yes. He did this thing where his worst games he would put people in favorable counts, but then be unable to put them away,. The PA with Stowers feels like a good example of it: he gets up 0-2 but then his fastball doesnt get in on the hands, and it stays up and out - foul ball. Pitch 4 is a curve he spikes too low...he'll never get a chase. He got a good ground ball eventually, on the changeup, but he ends that with a strikeout on pitch three if he gets the 97mph in on the hands and up like, 2 more inches. Probably gets the K on the It's just tweaks. Get the curveball up or the fastball up a bit and he's got a swinging strike three. I'll give him a little defense; the changeup to Mervis was a good pitch way off the zone he yanked and that pitch he just gave up a double on wasn't a mid-mid fastball. You'd like it a little more up, but that's outter third that Pulley did what you're supposed to on.
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Image courtesy of © Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images The Cubs' homegrown talent pipeline has been very important this year. Matt Shaw, Moisés Ballesteros, and Cade Horton have all seen big-league action, and a handful of other Iowa Cubs will likely see action, as well. The Cubs are a bit banged up, specifically in the rotation, so getting good results in Triple A will quickly move you into a position to see action in Chicago right now. Overall rating: 🥶 Not a particularly strong week. There were some good performances, but nothing that stole the show. Most of the "hot" players were "good," not "great", and there were some real stinkers—especially in the lower levels. Part of this is because the Cubs' best prospects are in Chicago; part of this is the normal grind of the year. Iowa Cubs, Triple-A (5-2) Up next: @ Columbus Clippers (Cleveland Guardians) 🔥 Jordan Wicks, SP - 5 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: A nice bounce-back start for Wicks saw him re-feature the changeup heavily. Wicks has been alternating good starts and bad starts the last few, giving up 13 earned runs in his last four, but with 12 of them coming in just two of those. Here's hoping for more starts like today 🔥 Matt Shaw, 3b - 237 wRC+, 6.5 K%, 12.9 BB%, 5 HR: Hopefully, this will be the last time Shaw features on the Minor League Hot or Not segment. He's up in Chicago (and after a nice two-hit performance in his first game back, he looks more comfortable) and will hopefully stay. Shaw has shown improved leg kicks and better mechanics overall. 🥶 Owen Caissie, OF - 80 wRC+, 27.3 K%, 15.2 BB%, 1 2B: Ok, so this really isn't the kind of bad week we're used to seeing from Caissie, as the strikeouts didn't shoot through the roof. He's been hovering around this range for his last 40 plate appearances, and the hope here is that he can stick there. If he couples 27% strikeout rates with the power, he'll be knocking on the door. 🔥 Connor Noland, SP - 6 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: Noland isn't a star; he's not even probably all that exciting or good. But he's solid enough that he could make competent big-league starts if the Cubs need him to, and based on the injuries piling up, they might need him to. He's probably worked his way into organizational up/down depth, but that's not terrible. He gets ground balls and limits hard contact and walks. That will work. Knoxville Smokies, Double-A (3-3) 🔥 Jaxon Wiggins, SP - 4 IP, 4 K, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: Okay, it's not as eye-popping or as efficient as his last start, but this isn't a bad first go a level up. And man, just an aside, it's nice having some very exciting prospects join the Smokies. It isn't a knock on the roster on the whole, but it's been hard to watch when the (very few) higher-ceiling guys struggle. 🔥 Grant Kipp, SP - 5 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: Good to see Kipp get going again. With the Cubs pitching staff struggling for pitchers, Kipp and his slider could play a role at some point. Don't think he's a starter long-term, but he's got bullpen potential based on that pitch alone. 🥶 Pedro Ramirez, INF - 91 wRC+, 21.7 K%, 17.4 BB%, 1 2B: These are the kinds of weeks you worry a bit about Ramirez. The walks were good, but if he's just not hitting singles, he doesn't add a ton. He's yet to hit a home run on the season; has an ISO of .057; and it's just going to be hard for him to really be a prospect with a 103 wRC+. He needs to find 7 home runs a year. 🔥 Will Sanders, SP - 6 IP, 7 K, 0 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: There isn't a hotter arm in the system than this guy. He's given up one run over his last 16 innings. Over that span, he's struck out 21 hitters and walked just two. Breakout? Maybe! South Bend Cubs, High-A (1-5) Up next: vs Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Milwaukee Brewers) 🔥 Ivan Brethowr, OF - 110 wRC+, 16.7 K%, 4.2 BB%, 1 2B: My boy is back! (Mostly.) Brethowr had been struggling the last little bit, but he's found the groove again, sans the power. You'd want to see him get to the pop a bit more, but limiting the strikeouts remains a good thing. 🔥 Jefferson Rojas, INF - 110 wRC+, 29.6 K%, 7.4 BB%, 2 2B, 1 3B: Rojas remains relatively hot. This does represent a bit of a "cooler" run than he's been on recently, but if this is "cooled off" Rojas, it's a great sign about the kind of year he's having. He's got to be close to a promotion to Knoxville, himself. 🥶 Cristian Hernandez, INF - 17 wRC+, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%: Not a great week for Hernandez, who had gotten hot again recently. On the season, he's cooled off over the last little bit, so I was hoping his recent run would keep going. Still, he's doing enough to remain prospect-relevant. He might be two really hot weeks away from regaining that momentum. 🔥 Reggie Preciado, INF - 138 wRC+, 33.3 K%, 0 BB%, 4 2B: He's not having a great season, and he's almost assuredly not on a prospect redemption arc, but he's had a nice week and he's a name I can't entirely quit yet. Maybe this is the start of something? More likely, it's his lone appearance on this list all year. But I'm hoping! Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low-A (2-4) Up next: Hickory Crawdads (Texas Rangers) 🥶 Ty Southisene, INF - 42 wRC+, 18.2 K%, 18.2 BB%: The approach has been strong from the fourth-round pick, but he hasn't really hit the ball well yet. We're still in his early days in Myrtle Beach, so the hope is that the approach begets results. 🥶 Nazier Mule, SP - 2 IP, 2 K, 2 BB, 6 R, 6 ER: A second straight blow-up for Mule isn't great. He had been looking really strong in his first 20 innings, giving up just 5 earned runs over his first four starts. He's given up 13 in just his last five innings. Yeesh. 🥶 JP Wheat, SP - 4 2/3 IP, 4 K, 3 BB, 6 R, 6 ER: JP had looked like might get on a little roll lately. The walks were still there, but he was limiting contact and runs. Not so much this time around. The strikeouts are real, but he's going to have to rein in the walks at some point if he's going to be a viable starter. Was there someone here you think I missed? Who's weekly performance did you find particularly interesting? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article
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- will sanders
- jaxon wiggins
- (and 5 more)
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Minor League Hot or Not: Is Will Sanders Breaking Out?
Jason Ross posted an article in Minor Leagues
The Cubs' homegrown talent pipeline has been very important this year. Matt Shaw, Moisés Ballesteros, and Cade Horton have all seen big-league action, and a handful of other Iowa Cubs will likely see action, as well. The Cubs are a bit banged up, specifically in the rotation, so getting good results in Triple A will quickly move you into a position to see action in Chicago right now. Overall rating: 🥶 Not a particularly strong week. There were some good performances, but nothing that stole the show. Most of the "hot" players were "good," not "great", and there were some real stinkers—especially in the lower levels. Part of this is because the Cubs' best prospects are in Chicago; part of this is the normal grind of the year. Iowa Cubs, Triple-A (5-2) Up next: @ Columbus Clippers (Cleveland Guardians) 🔥 Jordan Wicks, SP - 5 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: A nice bounce-back start for Wicks saw him re-feature the changeup heavily. Wicks has been alternating good starts and bad starts the last few, giving up 13 earned runs in his last four, but with 12 of them coming in just two of those. Here's hoping for more starts like today 🔥 Matt Shaw, 3b - 237 wRC+, 6.5 K%, 12.9 BB%, 5 HR: Hopefully, this will be the last time Shaw features on the Minor League Hot or Not segment. He's up in Chicago (and after a nice two-hit performance in his first game back, he looks more comfortable) and will hopefully stay. Shaw has shown improved leg kicks and better mechanics overall. 🥶 Owen Caissie, OF - 80 wRC+, 27.3 K%, 15.2 BB%, 1 2B: Ok, so this really isn't the kind of bad week we're used to seeing from Caissie, as the strikeouts didn't shoot through the roof. He's been hovering around this range for his last 40 plate appearances, and the hope here is that he can stick there. If he couples 27% strikeout rates with the power, he'll be knocking on the door. 🔥 Connor Noland, SP - 6 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: Noland isn't a star; he's not even probably all that exciting or good. But he's solid enough that he could make competent big-league starts if the Cubs need him to, and based on the injuries piling up, they might need him to. He's probably worked his way into organizational up/down depth, but that's not terrible. He gets ground balls and limits hard contact and walks. That will work. Knoxville Smokies, Double-A (3-3) 🔥 Jaxon Wiggins, SP - 4 IP, 4 K, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: Okay, it's not as eye-popping or as efficient as his last start, but this isn't a bad first go a level up. And man, just an aside, it's nice having some very exciting prospects join the Smokies. It isn't a knock on the roster on the whole, but it's been hard to watch when the (very few) higher-ceiling guys struggle. 🔥 Grant Kipp, SP - 5 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: Good to see Kipp get going again. With the Cubs pitching staff struggling for pitchers, Kipp and his slider could play a role at some point. Don't think he's a starter long-term, but he's got bullpen potential based on that pitch alone. 🥶 Pedro Ramirez, INF - 91 wRC+, 21.7 K%, 17.4 BB%, 1 2B: These are the kinds of weeks you worry a bit about Ramirez. The walks were good, but if he's just not hitting singles, he doesn't add a ton. He's yet to hit a home run on the season; has an ISO of .057; and it's just going to be hard for him to really be a prospect with a 103 wRC+. He needs to find 7 home runs a year. 🔥 Will Sanders, SP - 6 IP, 7 K, 0 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: There isn't a hotter arm in the system than this guy. He's given up one run over his last 16 innings. Over that span, he's struck out 21 hitters and walked just two. Breakout? Maybe! South Bend Cubs, High-A (1-5) Up next: vs Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Milwaukee Brewers) 🔥 Ivan Brethowr, OF - 110 wRC+, 16.7 K%, 4.2 BB%, 1 2B: My boy is back! (Mostly.) Brethowr had been struggling the last little bit, but he's found the groove again, sans the power. You'd want to see him get to the pop a bit more, but limiting the strikeouts remains a good thing. 🔥 Jefferson Rojas, INF - 110 wRC+, 29.6 K%, 7.4 BB%, 2 2B, 1 3B: Rojas remains relatively hot. This does represent a bit of a "cooler" run than he's been on recently, but if this is "cooled off" Rojas, it's a great sign about the kind of year he's having. He's got to be close to a promotion to Knoxville, himself. 🥶 Cristian Hernandez, INF - 17 wRC+, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%: Not a great week for Hernandez, who had gotten hot again recently. On the season, he's cooled off over the last little bit, so I was hoping his recent run would keep going. Still, he's doing enough to remain prospect-relevant. He might be two really hot weeks away from regaining that momentum. 🔥 Reggie Preciado, INF - 138 wRC+, 33.3 K%, 0 BB%, 4 2B: He's not having a great season, and he's almost assuredly not on a prospect redemption arc, but he's had a nice week and he's a name I can't entirely quit yet. Maybe this is the start of something? More likely, it's his lone appearance on this list all year. But I'm hoping! Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low-A (2-4) Up next: Hickory Crawdads (Texas Rangers) 🥶 Ty Southisene, INF - 42 wRC+, 18.2 K%, 18.2 BB%: The approach has been strong from the fourth-round pick, but he hasn't really hit the ball well yet. We're still in his early days in Myrtle Beach, so the hope is that the approach begets results. 🥶 Nazier Mule, SP - 2 IP, 2 K, 2 BB, 6 R, 6 ER: A second straight blow-up for Mule isn't great. He had been looking really strong in his first 20 innings, giving up just 5 earned runs over his first four starts. He's given up 13 in just his last five innings. Yeesh. 🥶 JP Wheat, SP - 4 2/3 IP, 4 K, 3 BB, 6 R, 6 ER: JP had looked like might get on a little roll lately. The walks were still there, but he was limiting contact and runs. Not so much this time around. The strikeouts are real, but he's going to have to rein in the walks at some point if he's going to be a viable starter. Was there someone here you think I missed? Who's weekly performance did you find particularly interesting? Let us know in the comment section below!-
- will sanders
- jaxon wiggins
- (and 5 more)
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Yeah, I think that's part of the issue though. He's not walking hitters. What he is doing is piping his fastball down the middle. His edge % is down 4% from last year, and conversely his meatball % and zone contact are both up. He's getting killed in the heart of the zone. This is typical from "I don't know where I'm throwing it" pitchers - they compensate walks for "here's a strike!" pitches. but those "here's a strike" pitches are generally in bad spots on their own. He's giving up a lot of hits, He's given up nine barrels over his last 24 IP which is double what he gave up his first 24 IP. He's got to find the middle ground. This version is going to get hit to death.

