Jason Ross

Image courtesy of Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images Not every important plate appearance of the year comes in a critical moment, but it doesn't mean that something significant can't still occur. One of these moments happened during Tuesday's game against the Washington Nationals for Cubs' rookie starter Cade Horton. And even if it didn't have game-changing implications in the moment, it's the kind of at-bat that can be a glimpse into the future. To paint the picture of the at-bat, the game between the Cubs and the Nationals is currently 7-3 in favor of Chicago as we enter into the bottom of the fifth inning. The North Siders have just tallied four runs in the top-half of the frame and the Nationals find themselves behind in the game. For the Cubs, and for Cade Horton, this is a great time for the rookie to close the door on the Nationals. The inning starts with two quick outs, as Nationals' third baseman Jose Tena (hitting eighth) is caught watching strike three for the first out of the inning, and then ninth-hitter Daylen Lile grounds out, bringing up leadoff hitter CJ Abrams. On the day, Abrams already has a single off of Horton, and hitting in front of James Wood, this could quickly snowball if the rookie isn't able to end the inning. CJ Abrams is a tough out for almost anyone nowadays, as he's currently in the middle of a real breakout season. The 24-year-old shortstop is beginning to live up to his top-prospect billing, sporting a wRC+ of 132 as he entered the game. His wRC+ on the season was fifth for all shortstops league-wide. Abrams is a pretty good hitter against fastballs, sporting a .360 wOBA on the pitch on the season. He's significantly decreased his ground ball rate this year, This will be a challenging plate appearance for Horton (even up four runs) and should not be taken lightly. Before breaking down the at-bat in question, I'd like to go back and make mention of something I've spoken about Horton in the past. In an article I wrote previously,, one of the things I mentioned was that Horton needs to learn to use his fastball like Justin Steele does; specifically, jamming it inside on opposite-handed hitters. This remains a work in progress, but is something important to keep in the back of our minds' in looking at how this specific event plays out. As the shortstop strides to the plate and takes his place in the box, Horton coils himself upon the rubber ready to go; he likes to work fast. Horton goes directly to the fastball against Abrams, which shouldn't be surprising — he uses the pitch nearly 50% of the time. The pitch isn't a bad offering, as it registered 96mph on the gun and induced a foul ball. It's far enough on the shadows that it's unlikely that Abrams kills the pitch, but it's probably not the ideal placement, as if he misses by a little, it would run towards the heart of the plate. Regardless of some nitpicks, the result is fine: 0-1. Now with count-leverage on his side, Horton goes right back to the well as the next call is once again heater. Despite Abrams being a great hitter against the fastball, Horton and Carson Kelly feel confident going back at the lanky youngster once again with the pitch. Horton gets nearly perfect placement this time, hitting 96mph on the radar while getting the ball just at the top of the zone and on the inner-third. There's nothing a hitter can do against this pitch if they swing, and if they don't, it's likely a called strike. This pitch gets the exact thing the fireballer was looking for, a swing and miss: 0-2. I love this pitch for a lot of reasons. First, Horton was able to use his fastball to get up in the zone a bit more than he's done throughout his time with the Cubs so far. Far too often, Horton has caught the upper-third of the zone without elevating the pitch high enough to generate more whiff. Not this time. Secondly, he used his glove-side-run, or in other words, his cut, in his favor, allowing the pitch to eat up Abrams inside. This is a dangerous hitter, and Horton has him down 0-2 using just fastballs. Now way up in the count, Cade Horton can do almost whatever he wants, so what will he do? Will he go to his bread-and-butter slider down and inside? Maybe he'll use it on the backdoor instead, hitting it low and away? Maybe he'll conclude that sliders don't typically do well against opposite handed-hitters and go with his burgeoning changeup? Horton has already featured the changeup quite often today against the left-handed-heavy lineup in front of him. No, the answer appears to be none-of-the-above, as the call seems to be made by fictitious manager of Cleveland from the movie Major League. "Forget about the slider, Cade, throw the heater." If you're familiar with the source, you can almost hear Lou grit it out through his teeth through the broadcast. Horton, after going fastball-fastball, decides that he's not done with the pitch just yet and dials up a third straight "number one". And while I waxed poetic about the pitch prior, this might be my favorite pitch of the night for the rookie. Horton uncorks a third straight 96mph fastball, but this time he buries it in, and right on the hands of the Nationals' hitter. This is exactly where veteran catcher Carson Kelly wanted it, too, as you can see from the set up. It'd be really fun if this at-bat ended up in a rousing, hype-inducing strike out, the rookie pitcher beating his chest Kenny Power-style as he walked off the mound, but alas, it doesn't. Instead the result of the pitch was an 83 mph ground ball that had an expected batting average of just .110. It's an at-bat that will likely be forgotten in the grand scheme of things, but this at-bat is bigger then the result and it's bigger than the game... it's progress. Horton used what makes his fastball special and he got a very good hitter to hit a harmless groundball at Michael Busch. To highlight this a little more, let me take you back to the third pitch of the entire game. Leadoff hitter, and antagonist of this article, CJ Abrams was up against Horton in this scenario as well. The count was even at one ball and one strike. Horton has gone fastball-fastball already. just like the at-bat he'll have later in the game in the bottom of the fifth. Abrams has already fouled off a fastball that was a little off the plate and up on the first pitch (sound familiar?) but Horton missed with a waste-pitch on 0-1, setting up this specific juncture. Once again, Horton goes back to the fastball, but instead of getting it in on the hands, or getting it on the inner-third-at-all, he leaves it up and over the middle of the plate, and the left-hander smacks a single up the middle. A mistake pitch that ended up with a hit. Eventually, the Nationals leadoff hitter would come around and score the first run of the game after reaching, something that would thankfully not spell defeat for the Cubs. So, sure, the fifth inning battle against Abrams probably won't go down in Cub lore with, say, Ben Zobrist's double in the World Series, but not every interaction has game-changing importance in that way. However, significance comes in many forms, and the rookie starting pitcher showed significant learning by getting Abrams to ground out weakly on a pitch inside on the hands, instead of falling in the same trap he did in the first. He found a better way forward against a dangerous hitter and the results were much better, I doubt it means that he'll be perfect moving forward, and we should continue to expect missteps and mistakes, hanging sliders that stay up just a little too long and fastballs that get just a little too much of the heart of the plate. After all, Horton is an imperfect rookie pitcher. But the more Horton can make these pitches to left-handed-hitters like CJ Abrams, the closer that the best version of Cade Horton we get. And if the Cubs can get the best version of Cade Horton through these baby steps, then that could be just as important as any specific moment of the Cubs' season. What'd you think of Cade Horton's last start? Do you think he's on the correct path? Are you seeing the progress? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

Man. I guess if there's a positive, its that through 7 and a half the only difference in the score is a combination of: 1. PCA tossed on iffy Q go/no signal 2. Matt Shaw CS 3. Suzuki almost-HR

Deep down, I'm a movie and TV show snob. Get me on Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood (or don't, my partner will hate you for it, because this will eventually lead me to a re-watch while I bark in her ear about how well he controls his voice) and I won't shut up about it for a while. That said, I'm a movie-and-show-snob with a taste for the trash. Is Over the Top an objectively bad movie where Stallone's character's name isn't even set in stone? Sure. But I'll watch him arm wrestle for his estranged son's love at least once a year (my partner also hates this. Frankly, I'm shocked she sits in the living room with me).

If you're into shows that have an air of mystery to them, the two I mentioned (Severance and Silo) are highly worth it. The former is more grounded in reality (though clearly "futuristic") and both hit on similar "I'm not sure what's happening here" vibes. Regardless, both are among the best running shows right now IMO. Worth a binge over three months while you've got it.

2016 had the most fun moments but the regular season was kind of less-fun than 2015 and 2025 IMO; I expected the 2016 Cubs to be great, I didn't expect 2015 and 2025 (so far) to be this way. The unexpected nature makes the year more fun. Where as in 2016, I was kind of "World Series or Bust" from the start. 2016 super-ramped up in the playoffs and got amazing in that way. Where 2016 wins is that it ended fun where as the other years all ended in some form or fashion of "bummer". Just different types of seasons, IMO.

I used to dislike the AppleTV+ games...then I started watching Severance and Silo, and the broadcast quality is pretty excellent...so I've changed my mind.

This is pretty "down" on Wicks and calling him a bust right now is...extreme? I don't think he needs half of what you're suggesting here. Its probably as simple as "stay healthy". He was making really encouraging progress last year and then got hurt and missed most of it. This year, he started off pretty solid, was thrown into an MLB role I don't think he's super-suited for (BP) went back to Triple-A, and then got hurt. As is, he's got the ingredients to be a solid, if unspectacular MLB arm. That's big-league-success. He's got a good changeup and a fastball that's ticked up the last two years. I don't think he's a star, but "capable #4" feels on the table if/when Wicks can get healthy. Maybe he can't, he's a pitcher, and pitchers are greatly impacted by injuries. And if you want to say you're unsure if he has his MLB success here I think that's a fair wonder t this stage, but not impossible in the slightest...pitchers get hurt and open spots for others pretty often. But lets get him healthy before we call a player a bust. He's 25, not 30.

Yeah, it's probably the easiest conclusion. I'll add just a little to the article, only because I caught a few things looking at his pages, and some thoughts, but Ben's probably the authority here. Which makes him an interesting use case for the Cubs - a team who *loves* their fastballs this year. His fastball has lost velocity (about half a mph on average), He's been on a pretty decent downturn on fastball shape according to Stuff+ year-over-year as well, though BP's stuffpitch+ and propitch+ think it's not overall different. Just checking Savant, he's getting more rise on the fastball than he had been despite the similar arm slot. Ben mentioned this as well. BP's deserved +/-, however, suggests he's not been very good and he's earned it. A few other things of note; he's throwing more pitches in the zone, getting less chases out of it, The positive is that he's generating more whiffs on chase than normal, but it doesn't seem to be anywhere near enough to offset things. I'd say that if Tyler Zombro sees an easy, internal fix here, then he's probably worth a look, but as with a few other pitchers who are going to be available, they feel more like "fixer-uppers" and in two months time in a new org, that could be a stretch as they head into October. But with how the Cubs have emphasized fastball and Gallen has is struggling with fastball, my gut reaction is that the Cubs won't be enamored by him unless Zomrbo and Co have a quick-fix for the fastball they can implement.

Its likely multiple prospects you dont want to trade, plus more. Like Ballesteros/Caissie/Alcantara tier stuff plus others. Essentially, if you aren't kind of throwing up typing it out, if it doesnt make you feel like "Is this too much?" Then it probably isnt realistic. I despise the guessing game of what it might take so this as deep as Ill go. But thats how Id explain it. It should make you feel real pain if youre going to suggest it.

The Nationals currently have 2 position players above .3 fWAR on the year. Crews has been really terrible so far, and he can still be good, but outside of him, most of their team is not very good. Robert Hassell hasn't been a very good prosect for the last few years, Tena has never been highly thought of. Nathaniel Lowe is 29 and has been awful this year (though he's been pretty good in the past, but only pretty good). Keibert Ruiz has been one of the worst MLB players over the last three years, accruing negative fWAR in each of the last three seasons for -1.2 fWAR and the 22nd worst in all of baseball over that span. Pitching wise, they're basically Gore, Mitchell Parker and his 5+ ERA and two 33-year olds in Finnegan and Williams. It's also not like they've got a banging good MiLB system, as they came into the season ranked 13th by Pipeline, the bottom 5 in Fangraphs $value, and 14th by BA. What it means is that there isn't a *ton* of help coming. I just don't think they're particularly close right now and while I don't think the Nationals have "Trade Gore" circled on their plans, the organization is probably missing a lot of supplemental pieces to Wood/Abrams/Gore that an infusion of multiple good prospects could represent a better chance for squeezing value into the team over an arm that's relatively volatile. Wouldn't be cheap in any sense, but there probably isn't another team that can offer as many "near MLB minor leaguers" as the Cubs can. The Cubs can likely pry players like Gore away from teams like the Nationals if they so want. Considering they made an aggressive move for Parades last year and then tried to pry Logan O'Hoppe away from the Angels (who you could kind of put in a similar situation to Gore and the Nationals), it's why I said I think the pitcher the Cubs end up acquiring this summer will not be among those that populate a Jim Bowden "this is who's available" The Athletic article. Gore fits that mold, but is just one of likely a few players. Who those other players are is kind of hard to speculate about, as I certainly didn't have either the Parades trade or the O'Hoppe attempt on my radar last year.

I don't think Gore is untouchable. The reality of pitching is that it's volatile, and Gore's currently having a career year as of now. I think he's really good! But the Nationals will have to ask themselves how likely they think they are to turn into a playoff team next year, or the year after, and if that would be impossible with a Gore trade. Right now, they have Wood and Abrams who look like long term pieces. They hope Crews figures it out. But beyond that, they're a bit murky. How well the Nationals feel about Cubs prospects is likely the kicker. But I don't think he's entirely off the table. The Cubs have the prospect capital to essentially "can opener" a team into trading a player they weren't fully expecting. In fact, if I were guessing today and looking how they played the TDL last year, I kind of think the player they get for the rotation will *not* be among the obvious trade candidates. I'm not sure who that will or is, but I do think it'll be a bit unexpected as of today.

Probably also worth adding in the injury derailing things a bit for him. I expect there will be a week (when, who knows?) where he really wakes up and hits like four home runs. He tends to do that; really carry the offense for a stretch or two.

Yeah done a little learning on the rule! I knew the "runner scores with less than 2 outs it counts" thing but didn't know the intricacies of playing the entire "would he have scored" thing. I handle all scoring through an app, so the intricacies of scoring are beyond my normal scope. Learning is cool!

No. I mean, I didnt want to assume any outcome based on Busch's play. Its ifs and buts. But one of those runs that inning was always going to be earned. Even on the error. The base runner surrendered by Horton pre-error would have scored with one out. It would have still been charged.

I didnt want to assume an outcome afterwards.

Wiggins with a pretty solid but un-eye-popping effort 6.1 4K 1 BB 2 ER

My boy.

2b away.

A few, specifically early. Hasn't been a bad game. Busch's play gets called an error or he makes it and hes through 5 with 2 ER bare minimum. Its not dominant. But its MLB caliber.

A few hits early on mediocre fastball placement. Busch booted a ball at 1b that was called a "hit" (I thought it was an error) which contributed indirectly to two runs. Change looks really sharp. Slider has bit. Fastball placement is improving as the game moved along.

I've got him between 15-20 and maybe a season around 25. Hes capable of going 107mph the other way. Thats real power. Teams will eventually come in on him more where he will be able to hit more HRs.

Also, loved that inning for Cade. That's PA against CJ was perfect fastball placement. Three pitches where he needs it against a LHH. More of that. Very good.

Yeah, the Nico-trade thing was *always* a narrow landing strip. I think there were possibilities out there, but they were very few and very specific. All players, by nature, ate less likely to be traded than *to be* traded but where the Cubs were with Nico was even narrower Glad they kept him.

I mentioned this on the pod today, but 2025 Hoerner is essentially what the White Sox hoped they had drafted (and the Cubs had hoped when they traded for) Nick Madrigal. Zero home runs. Low strikeouts. Low walks. Lots of hits. Strangely enough, both were Pac-10 players and both in the same draft.