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Jason Ross

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Everything posted by Jason Ross

  1. Long might. Wiggins will. To clarify; Long is a 1b/DH who doesn't have eye popping power. Industry list makers will hesitate to add a player like that some times. Some will point to his statcast data and the like, which is awesome! But some will see a 15HR 1b. Wiggins is a 2nd round pick who hits 100MPH. Hes a lot easier to sell.
  2. Yeah, he's a shooting star right now. It's not "if Wiggins lands on a top-100 list" but realistically "how aggressive do some people want to be?"
  3. There will be some pitchers who are capable of being a "TORP" who will be available. Part of the issue here is that fans generally conflate, like, an "Ace" (you know, one of the 6-8 dudes who throw a baseball better than anyone else) and like a guy who's a "TORP". I expect more of those will be available than we suspect. There will be a few teams who probably throw in the towel before others to jump on the value, and others will fall out of things between now and then.
  4. Figuring out who is available and who isn't available right now is a fool's game. One week of good results or bad results can swing things wildly. Most people didn't have Logan O'Hoppe as on the radar and the Cubs made a real push there. I didn't have "acquire Parades" necessarily on the bingo-card last year and it happened. As of today, I expect the Cubs will be involved in all of the best names who will be available and likely a few names we don't know are actually available. I'm not sure who that will be. But I believe they will be aggressive regardless.
  5. There's a chance, but like Assad, neither have logged an inning yet. It's hard to know what we can get out of them or what level they'll be at talent wise as they build back into game shape.
  6. I see no reason to believe the team wouldn't be shopping for a very good arm. They might be rentals, but they have both need and capital to acquire any player they want. They have already shown a willingness to acquire expiring contracts (Tucker).
  7. Marquez is really bad. He's had some nice results but the processes behind those results are not encouraging. His K%, using all SP's with at least 50 IP, is the second lowest in baseball and he's running an xFIP of 4.86. The Cubs should not want him anywhere near this rotation.
  8. Yep. The change is good. The cut-fastball is really good. The slider is really good. Hes got three plus pitches. Shore up the command on them a bit and he's going to be very good.
  9. The Rockies suck, but this is also the best version of Cade Horton tonight. A little unlucky to give up a run last inning but the placement on the slider/fastball is pretty good tonight.
  10. At some point we have to accept that it may not be a Cub decision in whether or not they sign David Robertson and that he too has agency. He hasn't announced a retirement, but considering there are 30 teams and even good ones have BP issues...its' weird he hasn't signed anywhere and it feels more than just the Cubs refusing to pick up a phone. As well, we're getting to a point of the year where you wonder what the best case scenario is. He's missed ST and two months of the year. How long do we expect a 40-year-old to come online? In July? How long does that give him to really help the BP? Is he going to struggle for 1/3rd of his time? I'm not saying it's not worthwhile to check if it's possible, but I think the end result is getting to a stage where "what's the best case scenario?" here probably has to be asked a bit.
  11. I'm convinced I'd have a 100 wRC+ if I started for the Cubs at catcher this year. Only because there's magic at that position.
  12. Ish? They added Kriske when they DFA'd Merryweather. But Thaw is correct, the 40 is currently at 39. So open spot remains.
  13. I don't have data behind it, but I saw a tweet last night talking about how it appeared they were up league wide this year,
  14. On the surface, 2019 might not feel that long ago, but especially for baseball, six years is a very long time. The only two players who appeared on the Cubs' 2019 roster who even remain with the organization are Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner. Many of the players have long since retired from baseball entirely, such as Jon Lester. Jonathon Lucroy, Mark Zagunis, and Cole Hamels. You probably forgot that Carlos Gonzalez took 40 at-bats with that team... I know I did. It's important to remember how long ago that is when we remember that the 2019 draft saw the Cubs select an infielder from UCLA named Chase Strumpf 64th overall. A trip down memory lane to the summer of 2019 reminds us just what kind of player the Cubs were hoping they had gotten with that selection. At the time of the draft, Strumpf was considered a top-50 prospect on the big board by many outlets. Baseball America ranked him #42 on their board and praised his strikeout-to-walk ratio, bat-to-ball skills, and knowledge of the strike zone in general. They saw him as a "regular second baseman" at the next level. The Cubs looked to have gotten a bit of a steal when they selected their man out of Southern California, if we go by the BA big board. Six years, however, is a long time, and that scouting report would quickly become outdated. Strumpf hasn't had a particularly smooth go of it since draft day. There have certainly been flashes and some runs of quality play, but his prospect status has faded considerably over that time span. The last time Baseball America had the former Bruin ranked as a top-30 organizational prospect was two years ago, when he was ranked 24th. In this updated report, they continued to praise his strike-zone awareness, but a flaw had appeared; it seems they were off on his bat-to-ball skills, as they now mention his propensity to swing and miss within the zone. This issue would continue to snowball as the infielder saw his K% balloon to 34.5% in Triple-A during his 2024 season. He would hit for power between the swings and the misses, but that tendency was holding him back. Chase Strumpfs walk-off home run 07062024 MLBcom.mp4 However, this isn't about the past; it's about the present, and this year, Chase Strumpf has seemingly made some progress. The now-27-year-old has had a resurgent year with the I-Cubs, posting a .260/.359/.560 line, which is 32% better than the league average. His K% has dropped to 28.2%, the lowest it's been since Strumpf's time in Tennessee during the 2021 campaign, while maintaining a strong 13.7% walk rate. If there's one thing the initial scouting report got right, it's that the kid takes his walks. Digging into the Statcast profile for Strumpf also highlights positives; Strumpf hits the ball extremely hard when he makes contact. His 94th-percentile ranking in both hard-hit% and barrel% highlights the damage he's doing when his bat connects. He's also pulling the baseball well, and his xData suggests that this isn't smoke and mirrors, and that the second-round selection is earning his outcomes. There is one glaring issue still: his bat-to-ball skills remain an issue, as evidenced by his high whiff rate and low zone-contact rate. It's been two years, but BA's scouting report about his contact ability still rings true. It puts a bit of a damper on the results he's showing; he hits the ball hard, but he just doesn't hit it often enough As a 24-year-old making his Triple-A debut, you could believe he'd progress and learn, but as a 27-year-old repeater (this is his third go at Triple-A) this becomes more concerning and a larger red-flag overall. When examining Chase Strumpf's career, his batted ball profile, results, and Statcast page, I can't help but think of a former Cub third baseman from recent memory: Patrick Wisdom, because the parallels between the two seem fairly deep. Wisdom was the 51st overall pick in the 2012 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals. In his final scouting report, Baseball America highlighted Wisdom's plus power but noted his struggles with contact in the zone, specifically against breaking pitches. The third baseman struggled to make contact at the Triple-A level until his age-27 season, when his strikeout rate (in his fourth time through the level) fell to 27.6%. If you think the two stories are similar, this is only the tip of the iceberg. When Wisdom was given a chance with the Cubs, he had a pretty distinctive profile; he would rank very high in things such as his hard-hit%, his barrel%, and his exit velocities. Where Wisdom would always struggle, as seen in his whiff%, zone-contact%, and this would reflect in strikeout rates that ranged from around 33-40% yearly. Wisdom wasn't a star player, but was a useful second division starter, and was able to compile four total fWAR with a 105 wRC+ in just under 1,500 MLB plate appearances. Below, you can see his 2023 Statcast page; it's quite reminiscent of Strumpf's 2025 Triple-A page, isn't it? Wisdom made a lot of hard contact, didn't chase a ton, but struggled with in-zone contact, and his strikeout rate suffered as a result. I don't think that Chase Strumpf has much of a path with the Chicago Cubs, much like Patrick Wisdom didn't have a path with either the Cardinals or the Rangers. Both teams had more invested in other prospects whom they valued more than a 27-year-old Patrick Wisdom, and because of that, they eventually let him sign a minor-league contract with the Cubs in 2020. Chase, like Wisdom, was once-upon-a-time, is probably stuck behind multiple prospects right now at both third base and second base who are thought of more highly than he is. The reality is that Matt Shaw, Jonathon Long, and James Triantos are far more likely to get looks above him right now. Nipping on Strumfps' heels are prospects like Cristian Hernandez and Jefferson Rojas, who could be options at his position as well, so this isn't a short-term issue for him within the Cubs organization; he's going to get squeezed out a bit. Where the future lies for the Cubs' former second-round pick is likely with another organization. He probably doesn't have significant value in a trade, but he could be a sneaky-good, throw-in for a team at the deadline. He won't headline any trade, nor would his inclusion make or break any negotiations, but if I were a team that wasn't particularly flush with MLB talent currently, I'd like to have Strumpf as that "third guy" in a trade with the Cubs. At that point, you wouldn't have to expect much from the infielder, but if you can squeeze some MLB value out of him like the Cubs did with Wisdom, that's better than most throw-ins. And in that vein, I can see Strumpf having an MLB career. It's probably not going to come with this organization, but I think there's a Patrick-Wisdom-like career out there for Chase to grab if the right conditions are met, and that certainly isn't nothing. It's quite commendable for someone who, just a few months ago, looked entirely cooked in that regard. What do you think about Chase Strumpf? Do you think he's earned a shot with the Cubs? Do you think it will have to happen with another organization? Let us know in the comment section below!
  15. Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-Imagn Images On the surface, 2019 might not feel that long ago, but especially for baseball, six years is a very long time. The only two players who appeared on the Cubs' 2019 roster who even remain with the organization are Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner. Many of the players have long since retired from baseball entirely, such as Jon Lester. Jonathon Lucroy, Mark Zagunis, and Cole Hamels. You probably forgot that Carlos Gonzalez took 40 at-bats with that team... I know I did. It's important to remember how long ago that is when we remember that the 2019 draft saw the Cubs select an infielder from UCLA named Chase Strumpf 64th overall. A trip down memory lane to the summer of 2019 reminds us just what kind of player the Cubs were hoping they had gotten with that selection. At the time of the draft, Strumpf was considered a top-50 prospect on the big board by many outlets. Baseball America ranked him #42 on their board and praised his strikeout-to-walk ratio, bat-to-ball skills, and knowledge of the strike zone in general. They saw him as a "regular second baseman" at the next level. The Cubs looked to have gotten a bit of a steal when they selected their man out of Southern California, if we go by the BA big board. Six years, however, is a long time, and that scouting report would quickly become outdated. Strumpf hasn't had a particularly smooth go of it since draft day. There have certainly been flashes and some runs of quality play, but his prospect status has faded considerably over that time span. The last time Baseball America had the former Bruin ranked as a top-30 organizational prospect was two years ago, when he was ranked 24th. In this updated report, they continued to praise his strike-zone awareness, but a flaw had appeared; it seems they were off on his bat-to-ball skills, as they now mention his propensity to swing and miss within the zone. This issue would continue to snowball as the infielder saw his K% balloon to 34.5% in Triple-A during his 2024 season. He would hit for power between the swings and the misses, but that tendency was holding him back. Chase Strumpfs walk-off home run 07062024 MLBcom.mp4 However, this isn't about the past; it's about the present, and this year, Chase Strumpf has seemingly made some progress. The now-27-year-old has had a resurgent year with the I-Cubs, posting a .260/.359/.560 line, which is 32% better than the league average. His K% has dropped to 28.2%, the lowest it's been since Strumpf's time in Tennessee during the 2021 campaign, while maintaining a strong 13.7% walk rate. If there's one thing the initial scouting report got right, it's that the kid takes his walks. Digging into the Statcast profile for Strumpf also highlights positives; Strumpf hits the ball extremely hard when he makes contact. His 94th-percentile ranking in both hard-hit% and barrel% highlights the damage he's doing when his bat connects. He's also pulling the baseball well, and his xData suggests that this isn't smoke and mirrors, and that the second-round selection is earning his outcomes. There is one glaring issue still: his bat-to-ball skills remain an issue, as evidenced by his high whiff rate and low zone-contact rate. It's been two years, but BA's scouting report about his contact ability still rings true. It puts a bit of a damper on the results he's showing; he hits the ball hard, but he just doesn't hit it often enough As a 24-year-old making his Triple-A debut, you could believe he'd progress and learn, but as a 27-year-old repeater (this is his third go at Triple-A) this becomes more concerning and a larger red-flag overall. When examining Chase Strumpf's career, his batted ball profile, results, and Statcast page, I can't help but think of a former Cub third baseman from recent memory: Patrick Wisdom, because the parallels between the two seem fairly deep. Wisdom was the 51st overall pick in the 2012 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals. In his final scouting report, Baseball America highlighted Wisdom's plus power but noted his struggles with contact in the zone, specifically against breaking pitches. The third baseman struggled to make contact at the Triple-A level until his age-27 season, when his strikeout rate (in his fourth time through the level) fell to 27.6%. If you think the two stories are similar, this is only the tip of the iceberg. When Wisdom was given a chance with the Cubs, he had a pretty distinctive profile; he would rank very high in things such as his hard-hit%, his barrel%, and his exit velocities. Where Wisdom would always struggle, as seen in his whiff%, zone-contact%, and this would reflect in strikeout rates that ranged from around 33-40% yearly. Wisdom wasn't a star player, but was a useful second division starter, and was able to compile four total fWAR with a 105 wRC+ in just under 1,500 MLB plate appearances. Below, you can see his 2023 Statcast page; it's quite reminiscent of Strumpf's 2025 Triple-A page, isn't it? Wisdom made a lot of hard contact, didn't chase a ton, but struggled with in-zone contact, and his strikeout rate suffered as a result. I don't think that Chase Strumpf has much of a path with the Chicago Cubs, much like Patrick Wisdom didn't have a path with either the Cardinals or the Rangers. Both teams had more invested in other prospects whom they valued more than a 27-year-old Patrick Wisdom, and because of that, they eventually let him sign a minor-league contract with the Cubs in 2020. Chase, like Wisdom, was once-upon-a-time, is probably stuck behind multiple prospects right now at both third base and second base who are thought of more highly than he is. The reality is that Matt Shaw, Jonathon Long, and James Triantos are far more likely to get looks above him right now. Nipping on Strumfps' heels are prospects like Cristian Hernandez and Jefferson Rojas, who could be options at his position as well, so this isn't a short-term issue for him within the Cubs organization; he's going to get squeezed out a bit. Where the future lies for the Cubs' former second-round pick is likely with another organization. He probably doesn't have significant value in a trade, but he could be a sneaky-good, throw-in for a team at the deadline. He won't headline any trade, nor would his inclusion make or break any negotiations, but if I were a team that wasn't particularly flush with MLB talent currently, I'd like to have Strumpf as that "third guy" in a trade with the Cubs. At that point, you wouldn't have to expect much from the infielder, but if you can squeeze some MLB value out of him like the Cubs did with Wisdom, that's better than most throw-ins. And in that vein, I can see Strumpf having an MLB career. It's probably not going to come with this organization, but I think there's a Patrick-Wisdom-like career out there for Chase to grab if the right conditions are met, and that certainly isn't nothing. It's quite commendable for someone who, just a few months ago, looked entirely cooked in that regard. What do you think about Chase Strumpf? Do you think he's earned a shot with the Cubs? Do you think it will have to happen with another organization? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article
  16. Best guess: Cosgrove, DFA. Figure he's behind both Thielbar and Pomeranz at the MLB level for LHP and Luke Little has been pretty dominant recently.
  17. Based it on his defense. Hes just not ready to be an MLB catcher. His bat is ready. His glove is not. I was hoping to be wrong and they thought it was ready, but this confirms that.
  18. Probably not. Id put heavy money its Reese McGuire. Ballesteros is starting tonight at DH for Iowa. They're in Columbus so they're close but hed be sitting if he was coming up, IMO. I would expect a heavier Carson Kelly dose than we have seen, switching from the flip-flop starts to like a 2-on one-off (Reese starts) situation.
  19. Kikuchi has taken a massive step back. His ERA is suppressing how much of a step back he's made. The Cubs should not want that contract.
  20. Look at him going 90! This feels reminiscent of how they handled Wiggins last start in SB, too. I wouldn't be surprised if it was his last start before moving to Knoxville.
  21. Probably it for Gallagher. Over 80 pitches today. 8 Ks. Wish I had more consistent velo readings and Statcast on him. His arm angle is way over the top. Thats got to add some IVB to his pitch. Probably a fastball that plays up in the zone well to help limit barrels.
  22. His scouring report out of college was consistent 88-90 and touches of 93. Always had good movement on his stuff. If he can be consistent 93mph and touching 95, that'd be some awesome development. Im going to start adding him to a name of must watch arms. Especially with the Mule knock.
  23. Hey, that Matt Shaw guy ain't half bad.
  24. Aloy remains a heavy favorite of mine in this draft, especially if the Cubs go the collegiate-bat-route. I think I've kind of latched on to a Steele Hall type in that spot as well, but they're probably 1a and 1b on the list. McKenzie would be interesting. I know the velo isn't huge right now, but the Cubs have been solid at two things: making due with low-velocity four-seams and adding velocity to prospects, so either profile could work here.
  25. We did the house-buying thing last year (thankfully we were coming from renting so we didn't have to handle a sale on top of it all). Absolutely no fun. Think I'll just die in this house.
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